Item C1BOARD OF COUNTY COMMISSIONERS
AGENDA ITEM SUMMARY
Meeting Date: May 22, 2012 Division: BOCC
Bulk Item: Yes _ No x Department:
Staff Contact Person/Phone #: Commissioner Murphy x8787
AGENDA ITEM WORDING: Discussion regarding the State of Florida Department of Economic
Opportunity Hurricane Evacuation Clearance Time Work Group meetings and direction on the input
variables and assumptions to include in the Memorandum of Understanding.
ITEM BACKGROUND: Rule 28-20.140, F.A.C., which was ratified by the Legislature in 2011,
includes five Work Program Tasks that require the Department of Economic Opportunity (formerly DCA)
to enter into a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with the Division of Emergency Management,
Monroe County, Marathon, Islamorada, Key West, Key Colony Beach, and Layton regarding hurricane
evacuation. The MOU will address the input variables and assumptions to depict hurricane evacuation
clearance times for the permanent population of the Florida Keys, utilizing a hurricane evacuation model.
The model will be the basis for DEO to complete an analysis of maximum build -out capacity for the entire
County and to determine the remaining allocations and distribution of the remaining allocations
(development potential). Pursuant to Rule 28-20.140, F.A.C., the hurricane evacuation related tasks have a
due date of July 1, 2012.
The DEO has hosted three (3) Hurricane Evacuation Clearance Time Work Group meetings to discuss the
requirements of Sections 380.05 and 380.0552, Florida Statutes, the Administration Commission Rules 28-
18, 28-19, and 28-20, F.A.C., the Statewide Regional Evacuation Study Program model (hurricane model),
model inputs [Census data, behavioral studies, hurricane forecasting, military evacuation procedures, traffic
flow rates], private property rights and takings cases, and the draft MOU, etc. At the March 21, 2012
BOCC meeting, the BOCC discussed the materials presented during the January 30, 2012, and February 27,
2012 Work Group meetings. The BOCC also provided direction on the hurricane scenario requests to
submit to DEO.
Attached are the materials presented by DEO during the April 30, 2012 meeting, including various model
scenarios 1-26 and the resulting clearance times. Also, included in the attachments is a draft MOU, as
proposed by DEO, dated April 17, 2012.
The next DEO Work Group meeting is scheduled for June 8, 2012, at the Marathon Government Center
(9:30am to 5:00pm).
Staff has several issues to discuss with the BOCC including:
1. Category storm to be modeled: 5;
2. Evacuation timing of Mobile Homes (Phase I or Phase II);
3. Participation Rates (whether further study is needed to indicate appropriate assumptions);
4. FDOT Shoulder improvements;
5. Allocation Distribution;
6. Allocation Rates; and
7. Model results in 30 minute increments; high profile vehicles; Navy vehicle evacuation; Special
Needs population; Regional Considerations
8. Future Scenarios
PREVIOUS RELEVANT BOCC ACTION: N/A
CONTRACT/AGREEMENT CHANGES: N/A
STAFF RECOMMENDATION: Staff recommends additional hurricane model scenarios be evaluated, as
provided in the attached memo for the June 8, 2012 Work Group Meeting
TOTAL COST: INDIRECT COST: BUDGETED: Yes No
DIFFERENTIAL OF LOCAL PREFERENCE:
COST TO COUNTY: SOURCE OF FUNDS:
REVENUE PRODUCING: Yes No AMOUNT PER MONTH Year
APPROVED BY: County Atty _ OMB/Purchasing Risk Management
DOCUMENTATION: Included X Not Required
DISPOSITION: AGENDA ITEM #
MEMORANDUM
MONROE COUNTY
PLANNING & ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES
DEPARTMENT
We strive to be caring, professional and fair
To: Monroe County Board of County Commissioners
Through: Christine Hurley, AICP, Director of Growth Management
From: Mayte Santamaria, Assistant Director of Planning
Tyson Smith, Attorney, White & Smith, LLC
Date: May 10, 2012
Subject: Discussion items regarding the State of Florida Department of Economic
Opportunity (DEO) Hurricane Evacuation Clearance Time Work Group meetings
and assumptions included in the DEO proposed, draft Memorandum of
Understanding.
Meeting: May 22, 2012
I. BACKGROUND INFORMATION
Rules 28-18, 28-19, and 28-20, F.A.C., which were ratified by the Legislature in 2011, include five
Work Program Tasks that require the Department of Economic Opportunity (formerly DCA) to enter
into a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with the Division of Emergency Management, Monroe
County, City of Marathon, Village of Islamorada, City of Key West, City of Key Colony Beach, and
City of Layton regarding hurricane evacuation, as follows:
ExceEpt of Rude 28-20.140, F.A.C.
11. By July 1, 2012, Monroe County shall enter into a memorandum of understanding with the Department
of Community Affairs, Division of Emergency Management, Marathon, Islamorada, Key West, Key
Colony Beach and Layton after a notice and comment period of at least 30 days for interested parties. The
memorandum of understanding shall stipulate, based on professionally acceptable data and analysis, the
input variables and assumptions, including regional considerations, for utilizing the Florida Keys Hurricane
Evacuation Model or other models acceptable to the Department to accurately depict evacuation clearance
times for the population of the Florida Keys.
12. By July 1, 2012, the Florida Keys Hurricane Evacuation Model shall be run with the agreed upon
variables from the memorandum of understanding to complete an analysis of maximum build -out capacity
for the Florida Keys Area of Critical State Concerns, consistent with the requirement to maintain a 24-hour
1
evacuation clearance time and the Florida Keys Carrying Capacity Study constraints. This analysis shall be
prepared in coordination with the Department of Community Affairs and each municipality in the Keys.
13. By July 1, 2012, the County and the Department of Community Affairs shall update the data for the
Florida Keys Hurricane Evacuation Model as professionally acceptable sources of information are released
(such as the Census, American Communities Survey, Bureau of Economic and Business Research, and
other studies). The County shall also evaluate and address appropriate adjustments to the hurricane
evacuation model within each Evaluation and Appraisal Report.
14. By July 1, 2012, the Department of Community Affairs shall apply the derived clearance time to assess
and determine the remaining allocations for the Florida Keys Areas of Critical State Concern. The
Department will recommend appropriate revisions to the Administration Commission regarding the
allocation rates and distribution of allocations to Monroe County-. Marathon, Islamorada, KeN- West, Lai -ton
and Key Colony Beach or identify alternative evacuation strategies that support the 24 hour evacuation
clearance time. If necessary, the Department of Community Affairs shall work with each local governnnent
to amend the Comprehensive Plans to reflect revised allocation rates and distributions or propose rule
making to the Administration Commission.
15. By July 1, 2013, if necessary, the Department of Community Affairs shall work with each local
govertunent to amend the Comprehensive Plan to reflect revised allocation rates and distribution or propose
rule maldng to the Administration Commission.
The MOU will address the input variables and assumptions to depict hurricane evacuation clearance
times for the population of the Florida Keys. Based on the assumptions in the MOU and the most
recent U.S. Census data, DEO will complete its analysis of maximum build -out capacity and will
determine the remaining allocations and distribution of the remaining development potential among
the Florida Keys' jurisdictions, while allowing the permanent population to evacuate within 24 hours.
Pursuant to Rule 28-20.140, F.A.C., the hurricane evacuation related tasks have a due date of July 1,
2012.
To complete the tasks listed above, DEO established a Hurricane Evacuation Clearance Time Work
Group (work group) to discuss the requirements of the Administration Commission Rules, the
Statewide Regional Evacuation Study Program model (hurricane model), model inputs, Census data,
behavioral studies, hurricane forecasting, military evacuation procedures, traffic flow rates, private
property rights and takings cases, the draft MOU, etc.
To date, DEO recommends the following policy revisions for the Florida Keys:
Policy 216.1.8
In the event of a pending major hurricane (categoi�v 3-5) Monroe County shall implement
the following stagedphased evacuation procedures to achieve and maintain an overall 24-
hour hurricane evacuation clearance time ,for the resident population.
1. Approximately 48 hours in advance of tropical storm winds, a mandatory evacuation
of non-residents, visitors immobile lioiiie special iieedv residews, hospayl crud
iiriimsilw li«iialleiffv, recreational vehicles (RV's), travel trailers, live-aboards
---------------------
(transient and non transient), and military personnel firom the Kevs shall be initiated
State parks and campgrounds should be closed at this time or sooner and entry into the
Florida Keys by non-residents should be strictly limited
2
2.
Approximately 30 hours in advance of tropical storm winds, a mandatory phased
evacuation of vita biti/I iiiiii, per- �a t � �. by evacuation zone (described below)
shall be initiated Existing evacuation zones are as follows...
In accordance with the policy revisions recommended by DEO, DEO stated the following
scenarios, from the scenario results presented, would represent the proposed policy revisions:
Existing Hotel units, 100 hotel units in Marathon, Mobile homes,
9 Military modeled using hotel occupancy rates for July 16 hours & 30 minutes
(13,665 units + 100 units + 8,134 units + 2,025 vehicles)
1 120 10 Census site -built units 23 hours
(44,630)
II. ASSUMPTION ISSUES/DISCUSSION ITEMS:
1. Category of Storm
DEO recommends that the basis for completing an analysis of maximum build -out capacity be
based on a "worst case" scenario and, to that end, would determine the remaining allocations and
distribution of the development potential in the Florida Keys based upon a Cate�cr stcr�r�
event. A Category 5 storm event, has an associated participation rate of 90% (90% of the occupied
units are expected to participate in the evacuation) in the model. The associated participation rate
for a Category 3 storm is 70% and a Category 4 storm is 80%. The participation rates were
developed for the Statewide Regional Evacuation Study Program and were based upon 400 phone
surveys (only residences with land -lines telephones were called, as sampling was conducted by
address) of the entire Florida Keys.
DEO is providing their recommendation based upon the provisions of Section 163.3178(9), F.S.
Section 163.3178 (9), Florida Statutes
(a) A proposed comprehensive plan amendment shall be found in compliance with
state coastal high -hazard provisions if:
1. The adopted level of service for out -of -county hurricane evacuation is
maintained for a category 5 storm event as measured an the Saffir-Simpson scale;
or
2. A 12-hour evacuation time to shelter is maintained for a category 5 storm event
as measured on the Saffir-Simpson scale and shelter space reasonably expected to
accommodate the residents of the development contemplated by a proposed
comprehensive plan amendment is available; or
3. Appropriate mitigation is provided that will satisfy subparagraph 1. or
subparagraph 2. Appropriate mitigation shall include, without limitation, payment
of money, contribution of land, and constriction of hurricane shelters and
transportation facilities. Required mitigation may not exceed the amount required
for a developer to accommodate impacts reasonably attributable to development.
A local government and a developer shall enter into a binding agreement to
memorialize the mitigation plan.
(b) For those local governments that have not established a level of service for out -of -
county hurricane evacuation by July 1, 2008, by following the process in paragraph
(a), the level of service shall be no greater than 16 hours for a category 5 storm event
as measured on the Saffir-Simpson scale.
(c) This subsection shall become effective immediately and shall apply to all local
governments. No later than July 1, 2008, local governments shall amend their future
land use map and coastal management element to include the new definition of
coastal high -hazard area and to depict the coastal high -hazard area on the future land
use map.
Monroe County must also consider the provisions of Section'180.0552, F.S., Rule 28-20.410,
F.A.C., and the Monroe County Comprehensive Plan.
Rule 28-20.140(4), F.A.C.
Policy 216.1.19. Hurricane Modeling. For the purposes of hurricane evacuation clearance time
modeling purposes, clearance time shall begin when the Monroe County Emergency
Management Coordinator issues the evacuation order for permanent residents for a hurricane that
is classified as a Category -5 n4nd event or Categot), C ' surge Brent. The termination point
shall be U.S. Highway One and the Florida Turnpike in Homestead/Florida City.
Monroe County Comprehensive Plan
Policy 216.1.8
In the event of a pending major hurricane (C"ategot), 3-5) Monroe County shall implement
the folloiring stagedphased evacuation procedures to achieve and maintain an overall 24-
hour hurricane evacuation clearance tmie ,for the resident population.
1. proximately 48 hours in advance of tropical storm hinds, a mandatory evacuation
of non-residents, visitors, recreational vehicles (RV's), travel trailers, live-aboards
4
(transient and non -transient), and military personnel from the Kevs shall be initiated
State parks and campgrounds should be closed at this time or sooner and entry into the
Florida Kevs by non-residents should be strictly limited.
2. Approximately 36 hours in advance of tropical storm hinds, a mandatory evacuation
of mobile home residents, special needs residents, and hospital and nursing home
patients from the Kevs shall be initiated
3. Approximately 30 hours in advance of tropical storm winds, a mandatory phased
evacuation of permanent residents by evacuation zone (described below) shall be
initiated Existing evacuation zones are as follows...
2. Evacuation Timing of Mobile Home Units (Phase 1 or Phase 2 of the model)
DEO recommends modeling the mobile home units in Phase 1 (with Tourist Units) of the model to
provide an additional layer of safety for residents living in more vulnerable dwelling units. DEO
also recommends developing additional programs to ensure early evacuation by mobile home
residents, including developing evacuation plans with each mobile home community to provide
explanations of evacuation policies, public transportation and providing assistance in handling
pets. Members of the Work Group did not reach consensus on how to model mobile home units.
The Monroe County Comprehensive Plan currently states that phased evacuations will occur, prior
to the onset of tropical force winds, by land use and housing type, as follows:
48 hours prior:
• Non-residents
36 hours prior:
• Visitors
• Mobile home residents
30 hours prior:
• RVs
• Travel trailers
• Special needs
"permanent residents"
• Live-aboards (transient
•Hospital and nursing
and non -transient
homes
• Military personnel
The term *'permanent residents" is not particularly descriptive. In fact, each phase includes what most regard as
``permanent residents." It appears his phasing policy reflects typical emergency management protocol and vulnerability
concerns — not a distinction between *'permanent residents" and non -permanent residents. In this hurricane model, the
state uses the more accurate term ``site built homes" instead.
DEO recommends revising this policy to include the mobile home units within the 48 hour
evacuation phase (phase 1 of model) to account for behavioral studies that indicate people will not
evacuate at night.
Again, DEO recommends the following policy revisions for the Florida Keys:
Policy 216.1.8
In the event of a pending major hurricane (category 3-5) Monroe County shall implement
the following staged phased evacuation procedures to achieve and maintain an overall 2 l-
hour hurricane evacuation clearance time ,for the resident population.
1. Approximately 48 hours in advance of tropical storm winds, a mandatory evacuation
of non-residents, visitors
In-obi-le
inobilc_iieeds residens, howi-I&r/alld
recreational vehicles(RV's), travel trailers, live-aboards
(transient and non -transient), and military personnel firom the Kevs shall be initiated.
State parks and campgrounds should be closed at this time or sooner and entry into the
Florida Keys by non-residents should be strictly limited
--- iiii .
Approximately 30 hours in advance of tropical storm winds, a mandatory phased
evacuation of vita l�iii6t iiiiii, per-i�a t r am. by evacuation zone (described below)
shall be initiated Existing evacuation zones are as follows...
In accordance with the policy revisions recommended by DEO, DEO stated the following
scenarios, from the scenario results presented, would represent the proposed policy revisions:
Existing Hotel units, 100 hotel units in Marathon, Mobile homes,
9 Military modeled using hotel occupancy rates for July 16 hours & 30 minutes
(13,665 units + 100 units + 8,134 units + 2,025 vehicles)
2010 Census site -built units
(44,630)
23 hours
The BOCC may want to consider requesting additional scenario nuns for the upcoming Work
Group meeting to include:
1) all mobile home units in the Phase 1 evacuation;
2) include 25% of the mobile home units in Phase 2;
3) include 50% of the mobile home units in Phase 2.
6
3. Participation Rates
Participation rates for category 3, 4, and 5 storms are 70%, 80%, and 90% respectively, based on a
Behavioral Study done by Dr. Earl J. Baker. These percentages were based on a Regional
Behavioral Survey Report (see attached).
Because it appears the sampling size of the participation rates may have been based on a small
sampling survey; it may be beneficial to do a more comprehensive survey of the Florida Keys
residents to ensure accurate participation rates.
4. FDOT Shoulder improvements (10 foot paved shoulders)
The Work Group members discussed the inclusion of the FDOT shoulder improvements as a
"functional evacuation lane" which could provide additional roadway capacity in the model. The
Emergency Management Officials from the Florida Divisions of Emergency Management, Monroe
County Emergency Management and Monroe County Sheriff's Office in attendance at the meeting
stated that the shoulders would mainly be used for emergency vehicles and damaged vehicles
during an evacuation event. Additionally, Monroe County Sheriff's Office and the Monroe County
Emergency Management Department stated that the shoulder may be used under "worst case"
scenarios and that the S1icriff"s Office eon ld support the Use of s1IoUldcrs iior li of :few Fish Creek
Bridge. Members of the Work Group did not reach consensus on how to model the shoulders.
Staff has requested additional scenario nuns for the upcoming June 8, 2012, Work Group meeting
to include scenarios with the inclusion of the shoulders north of Jew Fish Creek Bridge, as a
"functional evacuation lane."
5. Allocation Distribution and Rates utilized in the model scenarios.
The current scenario results are based upon the current allocation distribution (for example,
Monroe County receiving 197 allocations, Marathon receiving 30 allocations, Key West receiving
90 allocations, etc.) as shown below in the table
Current Allocations
Layton
3
Key Colony Beach
6
Islamorada
28
Marathon
30
Key West
90
Monroe County
197
TOTAL
354
The distribution and location of future allocations is a factor in the clearance time results produced
by the hurricane model. Monroe County staff would like to consider other options for the
distribution of future allocations; in particular, reducing the total amount of allocations modeled at
the farthest point in the County for hurricane evacuation, which may impact the clearance time
results.
Staff would like to request additional scenario nuns for the upcoming Work Group meeting to
include allocations distributed by the percentage of vacant lands within each jurisdiction (as shown
in the Tables 1, 2 and 3 below). Additionally, staff would like to request additional scenario nuns
with reduced allocations rate, including a 10% reduction of the total allocation, 25% reduction of
the total allocation and 50% reduction of the total allocation (also shown in Tables 1, 2, and 3
below).
Table 1: Allocations distribution based on vacant and percentage
A
B
C
Allocations if
Number
based on
% of Total
Allocations
Allocations
Allocations
of
percent of
Local Government
Vacant
if cut by
if cut by
if cut by
Vacant
vacant lots left
Parcels
Parcels
in each local
10%
25%
50%
government
Islamorada
1,109
9.78%
35
3 1. 5
26.25
17.5
Key Colony Beach
92
0.81%
3
2.7
2.25
1.5
Key West
84
0.74%
3
2.7
2.25
1.5
Layton
13
0.11%
1 (0.41)
0.9
0.75
0.5
Marathon
1,281
11.30%
40
36
30
20
Unincorporated Monroe
8,758
77.25%
273
245.7
204.75
136.5
Total
11,337
355
319.5
266.25
177.5
s
Table 2: Other Allocation distribution (Option 1)
A
B
C
Local Government
Option 1
Allocations
if cut by 10%
Allocations
if cut by 25%
Allocations
if cut by 50%
Islamorada
35
32
26
18
Key Colony Beach
6
5
5
Key West
15
14
11
8
Layton
3
3
2
2
Marathon
40
36
30
20
Unincorporated Monroe
256
230
192
128
Total
355
320
266
178
Distribution basis idea — start )vlvscam land distribution & at#usted to address
takings Hub litr
Table 3: Other Allocation distribution (Option 2)
A
B
C
Local Government
Option 2
Allocations
if cut by 10%
Allocations
if cut by 25%
Allocations
if cut by 50%
Islamorada
33 2
29
24
16
Key Colony Beach
6
5
5
Key West
30
27
23
15
Layton
3
3
2
2
Marathon
33
10
25
17
Unincorporated Monroe
251
226
188
126
Total
355
320
266
178
Distribution basis idea — start )vlvscam land distribution & at#usted to address
takill"'s flabilitr
11
6. Other Issues Which May Impact Model Scenario Results
0 The model provides results in 30 minute increments. For example, a 24 hour result may be
24 hours and I minute or 24 hours and 29 minutes or anything in between. A 23 hour and
30 minute result may be 23 hour and 31 minutes or 23 hour and 59 minutes or anything in
between.
o This may be a significant item to consider when reviewing the clearance time
results.
9
• High Profile Vehicles are ordered to evacuate early (within Phase 1). As stated by Irene
Toner, Monroe County Emergency Management Director, after winds reach 45mph, the
Sheriff s office does not allow high profile vehicles on the roadway and bridges.
o Research could be conducted to determine the number of licensed trailers in
Monroe County and, potentially, discount these vehicles (units) from the Phase 2
evacuation.
• DEO and the Navy are conducting further research to determine the appropriate vehicles
figures to include in the model.
o There are 870 units and associated vehicles include in the model for NASKW. It
appears 2025 vehicles were added to the model scenarios. This may be double
counting vehicles.
• It is not clear that if the special needs population was included in Phase 1 or Phase 2 of the
model.
o If the special needs were included in the Phase 2 evacuation, this should be revised.
• Regional Considerations is part of the rile — but the rile doesn't specify how this should be
considered; however, the rile does specify the termination point for evacuation
measurement related to growth management is at US 1 and Florida Turnpike in Florida
City.
III. Staff Recommendation
Staff recommends the following additional scenarios request:
Participation
90%
Phase 2.
2010 Census site -built units with 10% decrease in current allocation for 10 vears.
Al
Allocation distribution based upon percentage of vacant lands (see Table 1, Column A).
Include the 10ft shoulders north of Jew fish Creels Bridge, as a "functional evacuation lane."
Phase 2.
2010 Census site -built units with 25% decrease in current allocation for 10 vears.
A2
Allocation distribution based upon percentage of vacant lands (see Table 1, Column B).
Include the 10ft shoulders north of Jew fish Creels Bridge, as a "functional evacuation lane."
Phase 2.
2010 Census site -built units with 50% decrease in current allocation for 10 vears.
A3
Allocation distribution based upon percentage of vacant lands (see Table 1, Column C).
Include the 10ft shoulders north of Jew fish Creels Bridge, as a "functional evacuation lane."
10
Category
Participation
90%
Phase 2.
2010 Census site -built units with 10% decrease in current allocation for 10 vears.
BI
Allocation distribution based upon percentage of vacant lands (see Table 1, Column A).
Include the loft shoulders north of Jew Fish Creels Bridge, as a "functional evacuation lane."
Include 25% of vio� 111 vic �����; �It�_:=.
Phase 2.
2010 Census site -built units with 25% decrease in current allocation for 10 vears.
B2
Allocation distribution based upon percentage of vacant lands (see Table 1, Column B).
Include the loft shoulders north of Jew Fish Creels Bridge, as a "functional evacuation lane."
Include 25% of vio� 111 vic �����; �It�_:�
Phase 2.
2010 Census site -built units with 50% decrease in current allocation for 10 vears.
B3
Allocation distribution based upon percentage of vacant lands (see Table 1, Column C).
Include the loft shoulders north of Jew Fish Creels Bridge, as a "functional evacuation lane."
Include 25% of vio� 111 vic �����; �It�_:=.
Phase 2.
2010 Census site -built units with 10% decrease in current allocation for 10 vears.
CI
Allocation distribution based upon percentage of vacant lands (see Table 1, Column A).
Include the loft shoulders north of Jew Fish Creels Bridge, as a "functional evacuation lane."
Include 50% of rio� le oiric ai{> t�_:=.
Phase 2.
2010 Census site -built units with 25% decrease in current allocation for 10 vears.
C2
Allocation distribution based upon percentage of vacant lands (see Table 1, Column B).
Include the loft shoulders north of Jew Fish Creels Bridge, as a "functional evacuation lane."
Include 50% of vio� le vic ai{> t�_:
Phase 2.
2010 Census site -built units with 50% decrease in current allocation for 10 vears.
C3
Allocation distribution based upon percentage of vacant lands (see Table 1, Column C).
Include the loft shoulders north of Jew Fish Creels Bridge, as a "functional evacuation lane."
Include 50% of vio� le vic ai{> t�_:=.
Phase 2.
2010 Census site -built units with 10% decrease in current allocation for 10 vears.
DI
Allocation distribution based upon percentage of vacant lands (see Table 2, Column A).
Include the loft shoulders north of Jew Fish Creels Bridge, as a "functional evacuation lane."
11
Category
Participation
90%
Phase 2.
2010 Census site -built units with 25% decrease in current allocation for 10 vears.
D2
Allocation distribution based upon percentage of vacant lands (see Table 2, Column B).
Include the 10ft shoulders north of Jew fish Creels Bridge, as a "functional evacuation lane."
Phase 2.
2010 Census site -built units with 50% decrease in current allocation for 10 vears.
D3
Allocation distribution based upon percentage of vacant lands (see Table 2, Column C).
Include the 10ft shoulders north of Jew fish Creels Bridge, as a "functional evacuation lane."
Phase 2.
2010 Census site -built units with 10% decrease in current allocation for 10 vears.
El
Allocation distribution based upon percentage of vacant lands (see Table 2, Column A).
Include the 10ft shoulders north of Jew fish Creels Bridge, as a "functional evacuation lane."
Include 25% of ivio � l to vic a�����<. � ��s�' ; ; ����It�_:�
Phase 2.
2010 Census site -built units with 25% decrease in current allocation for 10 vears.
E2
Allocation distribution based upon percentage of vacant lands (see Table 2, Column B).
Include the 10ft shoulders north of Jew fish Creels Bridge, as a "functional evacuation lane."
Include 25% of ivio � l to vic a�����<. � ��s�' ; ; ����It�_:=.
Phase 2.
2010 Census site -built units with 50% decrease in current allocation for 10 vears.
E3
Allocation distribution based upon percentage of vacant lands (see Table 2, Column C).
Include the 10ft shoulders north of Jew fish Creels Bridge, as a "functional evacuation lane."
Include 25% of irio � l t oiric a�����<. � ��s�' ; ; ����It�_:�
Phase 2.
2010 Census site -built units with 10% decrease in current allocation for 10 vears.
F1
Allocation distribution based upon percentage of vacant lands (see Table 2, Column A).
Include the 10ft shoulders north of Jew fish Creels Bridge, as a "functional evacuation lane."
Include 50% of ivio � le to vic a <. s{ i> t�_:
Phase 2.
2010 Census site -built units with 25% decrease in current allocation for 10 vears.
F2
Allocation distribution based upon percentage of vacant lands (see Table 2, Column B).
Include the 10ft shoulders north of Jew fish Creels Bridge, as a "functional evacuation lane."
Include 50% of ivio � le to vic a <. s{ i> t�_:=.
Phase 2.
2010 Census site -built units with 50% decrease in current allocation for 10 vears.
F3
Allocation distribution based upon percentage of vacant lands (see Table 2, Column C).
Include the 10ft shoulders north of Jew fish Creels Bridge, as a "functional evacuation lane."
12
Category
Participation
90%
Include 50% of inob le tag ne a� <. s{ i> 1 t�_:
Phase 2.
2010 Census site -built units with 10% decrease in current allocation for 10 vears.
GI
Allocation distribution based upon percentage of vacant lands (see Table 3, Column A).
Include the 10ft shoulders north of Jew Fish Creels Bridge, as a "functional evacuation lane."
Phase 2.
2010 Census site -built units with 25% decrease in current allocation for 10 vears.
G2
Allocation distribution based upon percentage of vacant lands (see Table 3, Column B).
Include the 10ft shoulders north of Jew Fish Creels Bridge, as a "functional evacuation lane."
Phase 2.
2010 Census site -built units with 50% decrease in current allocation for 10 vears.
G3
Allocation distribution based upon percentage of vacant lands (see Table 3, Column C).
Include the 10ft shoulders north of Jew Fish Creels Bridge, as a "functional evacuation lane."
Phase 2.
2010 Census site -built units with 10% decrease in current allocation for 10 vears.
HI
Allocation distribution based upon percentage of vacant lands (see Table 3, Column A).
Include the 10ft shoulders north of Jew Fish Creels Bridge, as a "functional evacuation lane."
Include 25% of inob l taoine a�����<. � ��s�' ; ; ����It�_:�
Phase 2.
2010 Census site -built units with 25% decrease in current allocation for 10 vears.
H2
Allocation distribution based upon percentage of vacant lands (see Table 3, Column B).
Include the 10ft shoulders north of Jew Fish Creels Bridge, as a "functional evacuation lane."
Include 25% of inob l taoine a�����<. � ��s�' ; ; ����It�_:=.
Phase 2.
2010 Census site -built units with 50% decrease in current allocation for 10 vears.
H3
Allocation distribution based upon percentage of vacant lands (see Table 3, Column C).
Include the 10ft shoulders north of Jew Fish Creels Bridge, as a "functional evacuation lane."
Include 25% of inob l tag ne a�����<. � ��s�' ; ; ����It�_:�
Phase 2.
2010 Census site -built units with 10% decrease in current allocation for 10 vears.
I1
Allocation distribution based upon percentage of vacant lands (see Table 3, Column A).
Include the 10ft shoulders north of Jew Fish Creels Bridge, as a "functional evacuation lane."
Include 50% of inob le tag ne a� <. s{ i> t�_:
13
"Cale'gory
Participation
90%
Phase 2.
2010 Census site -built units with 25% decrease in current allocation for 10 vears.
12
Allocation distribution based upon percentage of vacant lands (see Table 3, Column B).
Include the 10ft shoulders north of Jew Fish Creels Bridge, as a "functional evacuation lane."
Include 50% of ivio � le to vic a <. s{ i> t�_:=.
Phase 2.
2010 Census site -built units with 50% decrease in current allocation for 10 vears.
I3
Allocation distribution based upon percentage of vacant lands (see Table 3, Column C).
Include the 10ft shoulders north of Jew Fish Creels Bridge, as a "functional evacuation lane."
Include 50% of ivio � le to vic a <. s{ i> t�_:
14
DRAFT
APRIL 17, 2012 DEO
HURRICANE EVACUATION CLEARANCE TIME MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDING
BY AND BETWEEN
THE FLORIDA DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY AND THE COUNTY OF
MONROE, CITY OF KEY WEST, VILLAGE OF ISLAMORADA, CITY OF LAYTON, CITY OF
KEY COLONY BEACH, CITY OF MARATHON AND FLORIDA DIVISION OF EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT
This Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) is being entered into by and between the State of
Florida's Department of Economic Opportunity (the "DEO") and Division of Emergency Management
(the "Division") and Monroe County, the City of Key West, the Village of Islamorada, the City of
Layton, the City of Key Colony Beach, the City of Marathon (the "Local Governments") for purposes of
complying with Rules 28-18, 28-19, and 28-20, F.A.C., and to stipulate the data sources, input variables
and assumptions, including regional considerations, to depict evacuation clearance times for the
population of the Florida Keys Area of Critical State Concern and the City of Key West Area of Critical
State Concern.
WHEREAS, the Local Governments of the Florida Keys are within an area that the Florida
Legislature has designated two Areas of Critical State Concern (the Florida Keys ACSC and the City of
Key West ACSC), pursuant to Section 380.05 and 380.0552, Florida Statutes, and Florida
Administrative Code Rule 28-36, hereinafter referred to as the "Keys ACSCs' ; and
WHEREAS, the Local Governments have adopted Comprehensive Plans and Land
Development Regulations, which have been approved by the State, as required by law; and
WHEREAS, the State's Legislative Intent of designating the Local Governments as an Area of
Critical State Concern includes:
(a) Establish a land use management system that protects the natural environment of the Florida
Keys;
(b) Establish a land use management system that conserves and promotes the community
character of the Florida Keys;
(c) Establish a land use management system that promotes orderly and balanced growth in
accordance with the capacity of available and planned public facilities and services;
(d) Provide affordable housing in close proximity to places of employment in the Florida Keys;
(e) Establish a land use management system that promotes and supports a diverse and sound
economic base;
(f) Protect the constitutional rights of property owners to own, use, and dispose of their real
property;
(g) Promote coordination and efficiency among governmental agencies that have permitting
jurisdiction over land use activities in the Florida Keys;
DRAFT
APRs 17, 2012 DEO
(h) Promote an appropriate land acquisition and protection strategy for environmentally sensitive
lands within the Florida Keys;
(i) Protect and improve the nearshore water quality of the Florida Keys through the construction
and operation of wastewater management facilities that meet the requirements of ss. 381.0065(4)(1) and
403.086(10), as applicable; and
0) Ensure that the population of the Florida Keys can be safely evacuated (Section 380.0552 (2)
Florida Statutes); and
WHEREAS, the Florida Keys remain one of the most vulnerable areas in the United States to
hurricanes; and
WHEREAS, the Florida Legislature has mandated that the Local Governments include within
the goals, objectives, and policies of their respective Comprehensive Plans, measures to protect public
safety and welfare in the event of a hurricane by maintaining a evacuation clearance time for permanent
residents of no more than 24 hours (Section 380.0552(9)(a2. Florida Statutes, Rule 28-18.400(5)(a)10.,
F.A.C., and Rule 28-19.310(5)(a)5., F.A.C., and Rule 28-20.140(5)(a)14., and
WHEREAS, Florida Administrative Code Rule 28-36.003(2)(a)7 requires that the City of Key
West prepare and adopt an evacuation plan which is consistent with the regional and County plans; and
WHEREAS, the Florida Legislature further mandated that the hurricane evacuation clearance
time for the Florida Keys ACSC shall be determined by a state -approved hurricane evacuation study,
conducted in accordance with a professionally accepted methodology; and
WHEREAS, the Administration Commission has directed that, after the clearance time has been
derived from the hurricane evacuation study and the remaining allocation for the Keys ACSCs has been
determined, DEO must recommend appropriate revisions to the Administration Commission regarding
the allocation rates and the distribution of the annual building permit allocation system for Monroe
County, Key West, Islamorada, Marathon, Layton and Key Colony Beach, or identify alternate
evacuation strategies that support the 24 hour evacuation clearance time. If necessary, the
Administration Commission has directed DEO to work with each local government to amend the
comprehensive plans to reflect the revised allocation rates and distributions or propose rule making to
the Administration Commission; and
WHEREAS, the Division of Emergency Management has prepared an evacuation study, titled
"Statewide Regional Evacuation Studies Program," dated November 2010, which was prepared and
funded by the state Legislature and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA); and
WHEREAS, DEO has determined that the Florida Division of Emergency Management's
Transportation Interface for Modeling Evacuations (TIME) Model is the model acceptable to DEO to
accurately depict evacuation clearance times for the population of the Keys ACSCs; and
2
DRAFT
Ana 17, 2012 DEO
WHEREAS, the Administration Commission has directed DEO to, by July 1, 2012, apply the
derived clearance time to assess and determine the remaining allocations for the Florida Keys ACSC or
identify alternative evacuation strategies that support the 24 hour evacuation clearance time; and
WHEREAS, the Administration Commission has directed DEO, the Division of Emergency
Management, Monroe County, the Village of Islamorada, and the Cities of Marathon, Layton, Key
Colony Beach, and Key West to enter into this MOU stipulating to the input variables and assumptions,
including regional considerations, for utilizing the Florida Keys Hurricane Evacuation Model or other
models acceptable to DEO in order to accurately depict evacuation clearance times for the population of
the Florida Keys ACSC; and
WHEREAS, the Parties have reviewed studies and data related to the occupancy, participation,
human behavior, response curves, capacity of the evacuation route and number of automobiles that will
likely be evacuated, and have determined that the following input variables and assumptions best
represent the most likely scenario for evacuating residents and non-residents from the Florida Keys for a
Category 3-5 hurricane event.
NOW THEREFORE, the Parties wish to set forth the following understandings:
PART ONE: INPUT VARIABLES AND ASSUMPTIONS
The Human Behavioral Studies, the 2010 Census Surveys, as supplemented by the American
communities Surveys, Smith Travel Services and data from the "Statewide Regional Evacuation Study
Program are the best available and most relevant data and analysis. The following input variables and
assumptions provide the basis, when used in the TIME model, to accurately depict evacuation clearance
times for the population of the Florida Keys, and will be used to determine the remaining development
allocations:
A. Commencement and Completion of Evacuation: For the purposes of hurricane evacuation
clearance time modeling purposes, clearance time shall begin when the Monroe County
Emergency Management Coordinator issues the evacuation order for phase II of the evacuation
for a hurricane that is classified as a Category 3, 4, or 5 wind event or Category C-E surge event
and pursuant to Rules 28-18, 28-19 and 28-20, Florida Administrative Code, the termination
point for evacuation from is U.S. Highway One and the Florida Turnpike in Homestead/Florida
City.-
B. Number of Dwelling Units: The number of units evaluated by the model include:
1. Transient units: 13,665 Tourist units with 9,540 occupied units and 4,125 vacant units . The data
source for the number and type of units and vehicular use is the Statewide Regional Evacuation
Studies Program and the Department of Business and Professional Regulation. The data source for
occupancy of transient units is the Smith Travel Research Data for 2011.
3
DRAFT
APRrL 17, 2012 DEO
2. 8134 manufactured and mobile home units with 4,576 occupied units and 3,558 vacant units. The
data source for the number and type of units, the vehicular use and occupancy of the units is the
2010 Census Survey supplemented by the American Communities Survey 2006-2010
3. 44,630 Site -built units with 28,053 occupied units and 16,577 vacant units.
The data source for the number, type, occupancy, and vehicular use is the 2010 Census
supplemented by the American Communities Survey 2006-2010 and the Statewide Regional
Evacuation Studies Program
C. Response Curve. The assumed Response Curve for model runs is 12 hours for all unit types as utilized
in the Statewide Regional Evacuation Studies Program.
D. Participation Rates. The assumed Participation Rates are:
1. Tourist units:
2. Manufactured and mobile homes:
3. Site -built homes:
4. Site built homes
5. Site built homes
1. For Mobile or manufactured home units
100%
100%
70% for Category 3 event
80% for a Category 4 event
90% for a Category 5 event
Sub -County Area
Average Occupancy Rate
Key West
80.4%
Lower Keys
68.0%
Middle Keys
52.2%
Upper Keys
142.0%
2. For Site -Built units:
Sub -County Area
Average Occupancy Rate
Key West
81.2%
Lower Keys
67.1 %
Middle Keys
49.7%
Upper Keys
54.9%
4
DRAFT
APRIL 17, 2012 DEO
For Hotel units:
Location
Months
Key West
Monroe County
w/o Key West
Key Largo
Marathon
Islamorada
June
85.1%
71.7%
73.8%
74.8%
63.3%
July
90.5%
75.9%
77.8%
79.0%
67.5%
August
77.7%
61.3%
62.2%
64.8%
53.1%
September
63.2%
45.3%
47.9%
44.9%
40.3%
October
74.7%
52.8%
55.9%
52.9%
46.1%
November
85.2%
63.5%
67.3%
62.3%
58.5%
Hurricane Season
(Average)
79.4%
61.8%
64.2%
63.1%
54.8%
F. Vehicle Usage Rates
1. For Mobile/manufactured home units:
Sub -County Area
Vehicle Usage Rates (percent of
vehicles owned that will be evacuated
Key West
90% (1.10 average)
Lower Keys
75% 1.55 average)
Middle Keys
80% (1.52 avera e
Upper Keys
85% 1.56 average)
2. For Site -Built:
Sub -County Area
Vehicle Usage Rates (percent of
vehicles owned that will be evacuated
Key West
90% (1.21
Lower Keys
75% 1.43
Middle Keys
80% 1.51
Upper Keys
85% 1.49
Florida Keys Community College: 1 100 vehicles
N.A.S. Key West
4. For Hotel Units 1.1 cars
2,025
DRAFT
APxit 17, 2012 DEO
G. Evacuation Stream. The evacuation stream from Monroe County is the only assumed traffic
demand considered.
The Roadway Capacity established by the Florida Department of Transportation is as follows:
Maximum Sustainable Traffic Flow Rates per Functional Evacuation Lane for Hurricane Evacuation Purposes
US Highway 1 (Overseas Highway) and CR 905/Card Sound Road in the Florida Keys, Monroe County, Florida
Area
Segment Milemarker
From
To
Lower Keys
2.0
4.0
Key West to Stock Island
900
Lower Keys
4.0
9.0
Stock Island To Big Coppitt
900
Lower Keys
9.0
17.0
Big Coppitt to Sugar Loaf Key
1100
Lower Keys
17.0
22.0
Sugar Loaf to Cudjoe Key
1100
Lower Keys
22.0
24.0
Cudjoe Key to Summerland Key Cove Airport
1100
Lower Keys
24.0
25.0
Summerland Key Cove airport to Summerland Key
1100
Lower Keys
25.0
30.0
Summerland Key to Big Pine Key
1100
Lower Keys
30.0
34.0
Big Pine Key to West Summerland Key
1050
Lower Keys
34.0
35.2
West Summerland Key to Spanish Harbor Keys
1100
Lower Keys
35.2
36.5
Spanish Harbor Keys to Bahia Honda Bridge
1100
Lower Keys
36.5
37.5
Bahia Honda Bridge to Bahia Honda Key
1100
Lower Keys
37.5
47.0
Bahia Honda Key to Hog Key
1200
Lower Keys
47.0
48.0
Hog Key to Boot Key
1100
Middle Keys
48.0
50.2
Boot Key to Marathon
900
Middle Keys
50.2
58.0
Marathon to Marathon Shores
900
Middle Keys
50.8
54.0
Marathon Shores to Key Colony Beach
900
Middle Keys
54.0
54.5
Key Colony Beach to Deer Key
900
Middle Keys
54.5
58.0
Deer Key to Grassy Key
1100
Middle Keys
58.0
74.0
Grassy Key to Matecumbe Harbor
1100
Middle Keys
74.0
80.0
Matecumbee Harbor to Tea Table
1100
Upper Keys
80.0
83.5
Tea Table to Islamorada
1100
Upper Keys
83.5
85.6
Islamorada to Windley Key
1100
Upper Keys
85.6
90.0
Windley Key to Plantation Key
1100
Upper Keys
90.0
100.0
Tavernier Key to Newport Key
900
Upper Keys
100.0
105.0
Newport Key to Sexton cove
900
Upper Keys
105.0
106.3
Sexton Cove to Rattlesnake Key
900
2
DRAFT
APnrL 17, 2012 DEO
Upper Keys
106.3
126.5
Rattlesanke Key to Card Sound Road
1200
Upper Keys
126.5
HEFT
CardSound Road to HEFT
900
Upper Keys
106.3
Int.CR905/
CR 905A
Lake Surprise to Crocodile Lake
1100
Upper Keys
Ocean Reef
Int.CR905/
CR 905A
Tanglefish Key to Crocodile Lake
1100
Upper Keys
Int.CR905/
CR 905A
US 1
Crocodile Lake to South Miami Dade
1100
A Functional Evacuation lane has a pavement width of at least 10 feet The above flow rates are
maximum values that are expected to be sustained for extended periods (more than 8 hours). During
night conditions, these flow rates may be fewer than the ones shown above.
H. EVACUATION PROCEDURES. The assumed staged/phased evacuation procedure is:
1. Approximately 48 hours in advance of tropical storm winds, a mandatory evacuation of non-
residents, visitors, recreational vehicles (RV's), travel trailers, live-aboards (transient and
non -transient), and military personnel from the Keys shall be initiated. State parks and
campgrounds should be closed at this time or sooner and entry into the Florida Keys by non-
residents should be strictly limited.
2. Approximately 36 hours in advance of tropical storm winds, a mandatory evacuation of
mobile home residents, special needs residents, and hospital and nursing home patients from
the Keys shall be initiated.
3. Approximately 30 hours in advance of tropical storm winds, a mandatory phased evacuation
of permanent residents by evacuation zone (described below) shall be initiated. Existing
evacuation zones are as follows:
a) Zone 1 —Key West, Stock Island and Key Haven to Boca Chica Bridge (MM 1-6)
b) Zone 2 —Boca Chica Bridge to West end of 7-mile Bridge (MM 6-40)
c) Zone 3 —West end of 7-Mile Bridge to West end of Long Boat Key Bridge (MM 40-63)
d) Zone 4 —West end of Long Boat Key Bridge to CR 905 and CR 905A intersection (MM
63-106.5)
e) Zone 5 —905A to, and including Ocean Reef (MM 106.5-126.5)
The actual sequence of the evacuation by zones will vary depending on the individual storm.. The
concepts embodied in this staged evacuation procedures should be embodied in the appropriate County
operational Emergency Management Plans. The evacuation plan shall be monitored and updated on an
annual basis to reflect increases, decreases and or shifts in population; particularly the resident and non-
resident populations.
7
DRAFT
APRIL 17, 2012 DEO
PART TWO: MISCELLANEOUS
A. Liability. Nothing in this MOU shall be construed to impose on the State of Florida,
DEO, DEM, or the Local Governments any liability. Nothing in this MOU may be
interpreted as a waiver of sovereign immunity for any Party. Any provision of this
MOU that is inconsistent with the State's sovereign immunity statute shall be
considered null and void.
B. Modification. Modification to the Memorandum of Understanding shall be valid
only when reduced to writing and duly signed by all parties.
C. Severability. If any term or provision of this Memorandum of Understanding shall be
invalid or unenforceable to any extent, the Parties agree to comply with remaining
terms and provisions, unless compliance of the remaining terms and provisions would
prevent the accomplishment of the original intent of the agreement between the
Parties.
D. Termination. Any Party may terminate this Memorandum of Understanding at any
time, with or without cause. Termination shall take effect upon receipt of written
notification by a Party to all other Parties.
E. Notification. Notification by a Party to the DEO shall be directed to the Areas of
Critical State Concern Administrator, Department of Economic Opportunity, 107 East
Madison Street, Tallahassee, Florida 32399. Notification to the other parties to this
Memorandum of Understanding shall be directed as follows:
1. Mayor, Monroe County, 2798 Overseas Hwy. Marathon, FL 33050 with a
copy to the Growth Management Division Director, 2798 Overseas Hwy.
Marathon, FL 33050,
2. Mayor, City of Key West, 3126 Flagler Avenue Key West, Florida 33040,
with a copy to the Planning Director, 3126 Flagler Avenue Key West, Florida
33040,
3. Mayor, City of Marathon, 9805 Overseas Highway Marathon, Florida 33050,
with a copy to the Planning Director, 9805 Overseas Highway Marathon,
Florida 33050
4. Mayor, City of Layton, 68260 Overseas Highway P.O. Box 778 Long Key,
FL 33001
5. Mayor, City of Key Colony Beach, P.O. Box 510141 - Key Colony Beach,
Florida 33051-0141 with a copy to the City Clerk at P.O. Box 510141 - Key
Colony Beach, Florida 33051-0141
6. Mayor, Village of Islamorada, 86800 Overseas Highway Islamorada, FL
33036, with a copy to the Planning and Development Services Manager,
86800 Overseas Highway Islamorada, FL 33036
7. Director, Florida Division of Emergency Management,2555 Shumard Oaks
Boulevard, Tallahassee, Florida 32399-2100, with a copy to the Hurricane
Program Manager
DRAFT
APRiL 17, 2012 DEO
F. Effective Date. This Memorandum of Understanding is effective upon execution by
all Parties, and approval by the Florida Administration Commission and ends upon
the termination of the Florida Keys Area of Critical State Concern designation, unless
terminated earlier according to Part III (D) above.
10
DRAFT
APRIL 1 %, 2012 DEO
IN WITNESS WHEREOF, the parties have executed this Memorandum of Understanding.
CITY OF KEY WEST, FLORIDA,
Craig Cates, Mayor
This day of , 2012.
rvw0*1116
James Scholl, City Manager
Approved as to form and legality:
10
DRAFT
APRiL 17, 2012 DEO
BOARD OF COUNTY COMMISSIONERS
OF MONROE COUNTY
David Rice, Mayor
This day of , 2012.
ATTEST:
Roman Gastesi, County Administrator
Approved as to form and legality:
Suzanne Hutton, County Attorney
11
DRAFT
APxiL 17, 2012 DEO
CITY OF MARATHON, FLORIDA
Peter Worthington, Mayor
This day of , 2012.
ATTEST:
Roger Hernstadt, City Manager
Approved as to form and legality:
John Herin, City Attorney
12
DRAFT
APRiL 17, 2012 DEO
CITY OF LAYTON, FLORIDA
Norman S. Anderson, Mayor
This day of , 2012.
ATTEST:
Philip Haring Administrative
Assistant to the Mayor
Approved as to form and legality:
I
DRAFT
APRiL 17, 2012 DEO
CITY OF KEY COLONY BEACH,
FLORIDA
Ron Sutton, Mayor
This day of , 2012.
ATTEST:
Vickie L. Bollinger, City Clerk
Approved as to form and legality:
Thomas D. Wright, City Attorney
VILLAGE OF ISLAMORADA, FLORIDA
Michael Reckwerdt, Mayor
This day of , 2012.
ATTEST:
Edward Koconis, Village Manager
Approved as to form and legality:
Nina Boniske, Village Attorney
IV
DRAFT
APRiL 17, 2012 DEO
STATE OF FLORIDA DIVISION OF EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT
Brian Koon
Director, Florida Division of
Emergency Management
IM
Approved for Legal Sufficiency:
IM
15
DRAFT
APR& 17, 2012 DEO
STATE OF FLORIDA DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMIC
OPPORTUNITY
J. Thomas Beck, AICP
Director, Division of Community
Development
Approved for Legal Sufficiency:
Date
16
This document presents regional findings from a 2007-2008 survey of Florida residents conducted as part of the Statewide
Regional Evacuation Study. The primary aim of the survey was to provide data to assist in deriving evacuation behavioral
assumptions for transportation and shelter analyses. The main focus of the survey was hurricane evacuation, but questions
were also asked about evacuation due to freshwater flooding, wildfires, hazardous material accidents, and nuclear power
plant accidents. The survey included questions that are important in developing accurate behavioral projections for trans-
portation and shelter planning but also incorporated questions deemed useful by county emergency management officials.
Meetings were held with county and regional planning council representatives to discuss the questionnaire and related
survey issues.
In each non -coastal county of the state 150 interviews were conducted randomly by telephone. In each coastal county of
the state 400 interviews were conducted. The interviews were allocated among aggregations of hurricane evacuation zones
(e.g., category 1-2) in the respective counties. The aggregation of zones and allocations of interviews among the zones were
determined after input from county and regional representativesand varied among counties and regions. Selections were
also made in order to reflect aggregations of zones currently used operationally and in public information materials by coun-
ties and to provide appropriate distributions of data that would be necessary to derive behavioral projections as required by
the Statewide Regional Evacuation Study. In order to ensure that respondents resided in the evacuation zones of interest,
addresses were selected first, and then telephone number at those addresses. By necessity only residences with land -line
telephones were called, as sampling was conducted by address.
For non -coastal counties, tables in this document report survey findings for the county without geographical breakdowns.
For coastal counties, tables summarize survey findings in several ways geographically. For the region and for each county,
results for all evacuation zones are aggregated, without weighting the zones to reflect actual populations in each zone.
Results are also presented by evacuation zone for the region, and the regional aggregations for zones are also not weighted
to reflect actual population variations among counties. Finally, results are presented for each evacuation zone within each
county. In one respect this is the most accurate level of reporting, because findings are not being mixed with those for
other locations. However, this is also the reporting level with the smallest number of respondents, and statistical reliability
is poorer for smaller samples. For every coastal county and for every region with coastal counties, tables report findings for
six evacuation zones (category 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 surge -related evacuation zones, plus non -surge zones). In locations where
zones were aggregated the tables show the same data for each zone separately (for cat 1 and 2, for example). This is done to
achieve uniformity of tables among counties and regions, but tables should not be misconstrued to infer that sample sizes
apply to each zone separately. Tables are formatted to make clear instances where sample sizes are "shared" among zones.
For hazards other than hurricanes, sample sizes are smaller. In most counties one-third of the respondents were asked
about freshwater flooding or wildfires or hazardous material accidents. In counties within the emergency planning zone
for a nuclear power plant, one-fourth of the respondents were asked about one of the previously listed hazards or about
nuclear power plants.
Kerr & Downs Research Rogiorrtrl Evncuotiorr Shudl I;6elmviorcri Arialyslsi South Florida Region Report 3
Information about Hurricanes
Four out of five South Florida region residents (81%) have
access to the Internet. One in three of these individuals
(32%) claims to have visited their county's website to search
for information about hurricanes. Two out of three residents
(65%) in the South Florida region maintain they have seen a
map of their county showing areas that need to evacuate in
case of hurricanes.
Information about Hurricanes
Have access to Internet 81%
1'
Residents who visited county's website for hurricane information j 32%
i
Have seen a map with hurricane evacuation zones 65%
Awareness of Evacuation Zones
Over half of the residents (53%) in the coastal counties in the South Florida region believe they live in an evacuation zone.
Knowledge about one's evacuation zone is as shown below:
Know evacuation zone
Evacuation zone
in which one lives
Category 1
72%
Category 2
41%
Category 3
20%
Category 4
23%
Category 5
23%
Perceived Danger from Hurricanes
Percentages of residents in the South Florida region who believe hurricanes of varying strengths pose safety risks for
flooding of their homes increase exponentially with the strength of hurricanes:
Category 2
Category 3
Category 4
Evacuation zone
hurricane
hurricane
hurricane
Category 1
35%
57%
75%
Category 2
28%
51%
71%
Category 3
24%
45%
65%
Category 4
28%
42%
59%
Category 5
28%
42%
59%
Non -Surge
19%
23%
49%
Percentages of residents who believe it is safe to stay in their homes if hurricanes pass directly over them decrease
dramatically as hurricanes strengthen from a category 2 to 3 to 4:
Category 2
Category 3
Category 4
Evacuation zone
hurricane
hurricane
hurricane
Category 1
66%
38%
18%
Category 2
70%
34%
16%
Category 3
71%
35%
18%
Category 4
70%
44%
20%
Category 5
70%
44%
20%
Non -Surge
80%
62%
30%
Kerr & Downs Research Recgioncd Evacbalion Stucly I'BLhavioic l Ai6lysisi Souih Flo'iicia Region RapoiI T
Emergency Management Officials
Percentages of residents who feel that Emergency Management officials will issue evacuation notices saying resident should
leave their homes to seek safer locations increase significantly as storm strength increases.
Category 2
Category 3
Category 4
Evacuation zone
hurricane
hurricane
hurricane
Category 1
72%
89%
93%
Category 2
56%
87%
91%
Category 3
49%
83%
91%
Category 4
49%
69%
91%
Category 5
49%
69%
91%
Non -Surge
41%
65%
82%
Evacuation Intent
Percentages of citizens who say they will follow mandatory evacuation notices increase linearly as hurricanes strengthen
from a category 1 or 2 to 3 to 5.
Category 1 or 2
Category 3
Category 5
Evacuation zone
hurricane
hurricane
hurricane
Category 1
61%
79%
89%
Category 2
71%
90%
92%
Category 3
67%
91%
92%
Category 4
65%
86%
88%
Category 5
65%
86%
88%
Non -Surge
77%
86%
93%
Shadow Evacuations
Significant percentages of residents say they intend to evacuate their homes even when the evacuation notice does not
apply directly to them. Shadow evacuations increase as storm strength increases.
Evacuation
Evacuation
Evacuation
notice for zones
notice for zones
notice for zones
Evacuation zone
1 and 2
1, 2, and 3
1, 2, 3, 4, & 5
Category 1
58%
71%
90%
Category 2
77%
86%
96%
Category 3
65%
90%
98%
Category 4
60%
79%
96%
Category 5
60%
79%
96%
Non -Surge
52%
83%
92%
8 Regional Evocuoiio i Study I Beh aviot al Analysis:South Eloddca Rogion Ruport
Evacuation Destination
Regardless of the hurricane strength, pluralities of residents in the South Florida region intend to go to friends or relatives if
they evacuate. Minor changes in evacuation destinations occur as hurricanes strengthen.
Most residents intend to evacuate to other places in Florida regardless of hurricane strength. Percentages of residents who
intend to evacuate outside Florida increase considerably as hurricanes strengthen to a category S. Most residents who
intend to evacuate outside Florida will go to Georgia.
li 43%
Friend/relative 43%
42%
- - 15%
Public sheher 16%
17%
Category 1 or 2
14%
Hotel/motel 17% Category 3
18% Category 5
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Someplace else in Florida
Own county
Someplace outside Florida
Own neighborhood
reI_ 0s0l
15%
17%
16%
0% 20%
Category 1 or 2
., Category 3
18Category 5
40% 60%
Hurricane Planning
Three out of five households (60%) have definite plans for deciding to evacuate and where to go. The typical household
plans to take one vehicle (1.3) during an evacuation. Less than one in ten households (5%) plan to take a motor home, pull a
trailer, boat, etc., when they evacuate.
Issues Impacting Evacuation
Two in five residents (38%) in the South Florida region have pets: 87% of these residents plan to take their pets with them
if they evacuate. Most residents with pets (85%) are aware that public shelters will not accept pets inside, and 5% of these
residents claim they will not evacuate because of this.
Seven percent of households contain an individual who requires assistance during evacuation. Over half of these house-
holds (53%; 4% of all households) have an individual who is disabled, has a medical condition or requires some other type of
special assistance beyond transportation assistance. Twelve percent of these households (1% of all households) will require
assistance from an outside agency. Only three in ten households (28%) that require special assistance have registered with
their county as needing special assistance.
•* Recclional Evocuatioii Study E4ohnvio�cil Aiiol)sis. South Floii,16 Rcgion R' �6 i ,; 4
Past Hurricanes
Percentages of residents reporting they were home for recent hurricanes are shown below:
37%
Hurricane Andrew
64%
Hurricane Frances
52%
Hurricane Georges
76%
Hurricane Ivan
66%
Hurricane Jeanne
77%
Hurricane Wilma
Percentages of all households that evacuated and the most popular types of destinations are shown below:
Neighbor-
Outside
Hurricane
Evacuated
hood
County
Florida
Florida
Hurricane Andrew
34%
4%
16%
11%
2%
Hurricane Frances
14%
3%
4%
7%
1%
Hurricane Georges
38%
1%
6%
29%
2%
Hurricane Ivan
28%
<1%
3%
21%
3%
Hurricane Jeanne
10%
0%
4%
4%
2%
Hurricane Wilma
15%
1%
3%
10%
1%
Went to
Went to
Went to
Hurricane
public shelter
friend/relative
hotel/motel
Hurricane Andrew
6%
20%
5%
Hurricane Frances
1%
8%
3%
Hurricane Georges
1%
28%
6%
Hurricane Ivan
0%
18%
6%
Hurricane Jeanne
<1%
9%
<3%
Hurricane Wilma
<1%
11%
3%
Percentages of households who thought evacuation notices for past hurricanes were mandatory or voluntary are shown
below:
Hurricane
Mandatory
Voluntary
Hurricane Andrew
49%
37%
Hurricane Frances
25%
63%
Hurricane Georges
22%
62%
Hurricane Ivan
47%
28%
Hurricane Jeanne
38%
39%
Hurricane Wilma
36%
47%
10 RegionalEvacuanoii Study I Bdiciviotal Analysis: South Floiicla Rogiou Rchoat i L Kerr + Downs Research
Suppose that officials decided that the storm could strengthen and become a category 5 hurricane. If
they issued a mandatory evacuation notice saying you should leave your home and go someplace safer,
would you leave your home to go someplace safer?
Over nine out of ten residents (91%) would follow Emergency Management officials' orders to evacuate in the event of a
category 5 hurricane. Responses varied only slightly across evacuation zones with a high of 93% in non -surge zoness and a
low of 88% in evacuation zones 4 and 5.
County -Level Results
At least 88% of residents in all counties will leave home if Emergency Management officials issue mandatory evacuation
notices.
Would Leave Home if Mandatory
Evacuation Notice is Given for a Catego-
ry 5 Hurricane
Don't know/
n
Yes
No
depends
South Florida 1,200
91%
7%
2%
Category 1 625
89%
8%
3%
Category 2 125
Y
92%
7%
1%
Category 3 83
92%
7%
2%
Category 4 58
88%
7%
5%
Category 5 59
88%
7%
5%
Non -Surge 250
93%
6%
1%
Broward 400
91%
7%
2%
Category 1
91%
8%
1%
150
Category 2
91%
8%
1%
Category 3
88%
7%
4%
Category 4
100 98%
7%
4%
Category 5
88%
7%
4%
Non -Surge
ISO 91%
6%
2%
Mlarnl-Dade
400 92%
6%
2%
Category 1
150 90%
7%
2%
Category 2 93% 6% 1%
100 -
Category 3 93% 6% 1%
Category 4
87%
7%
7%
so
Category 5
87%
7%
7%
Non -Surge
100 94%
5%
1%
Monroe
400 88%
8%
4%
Key West
100 89%
9%
3%
Lower Keys 100 91% 6% 3%
Middle Keys 100 90% 7% 3%
Would Leave Home if Mandatory Evacuation
-Notice is Given for a Category 5 Hurricane
South Florida 91%
Category 1 89%
Category 2 92%
Category 3 v 92%
Category 4 88%
... ...... .
Category 5 gypWajoW 88%
Non -Surge 93%
Broward ftft jbM6.j 91%
Category 1 91%
Category 2 91%
Category 3 88%
Category4 s 88%
Category 5 88%
Non -Surge 91%
Miami -Dade m�f 92%
Category 1 90%
Category 2 93%
Category 3 93%
61
Category 4 87%
Category 5 rm a 87%
Non -Surge 94%
Monroe 88%
Key West m 89%
Lower Keys 91%
Middle Keys 90%
Upper Keys
Upper Keys 100 84% 8% 8% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 100%
I�r & Downs Research Regional EvocuatibnStudy I BehaioialAnaly sis: South Floi Ida Reglon Repoi 1 37 0
Percentages of residents who say they will follow evacuation orders increase linearly as storm strength increases:
67% Category 1 or 2 hurricane
84% Category 3 hurricane
91% Category 5 hurricane
Intention to Evacuate if Ordered
Category
Sort
Category3
Category5
South Florida
Hurricane
Hurricane
Hurricane
South Florida
67%
84%
91%
Category 1
Category 1
61%
79%
89%
Category 2
71%
90%
92%
-
Category 2
Category 3
67%
91%
92%
Category 4
65%
86%
88%
Category 3
Category 5
65%
86%
88%
Non -Surge
77%
86%
93%
Category 4
Category 5
Non -Surge
0% 20% 40%
D
60% 80% 100%
Category 1 or 2 Hurricane
,,,Category 3 Hurricane
0 Category 5 Hurricane
38 RegionaliEvocuation Study 16chaviotal Anclysi5s SouthFlouido Region Report
Six out of ten residents (62%) who feel safe in
their homes during a category 1 or 2 hurricane
plan to evacuate if ordered to do so, while 74%
and 76% of residents who feel safe in category 3 South Florida
and 5 hurricanes, respectively, will evacuate as
well. Higher percentages of residents who feel Category 1
unsafe in their homes during various strength
hurricanes (89% to 96%) plan to evacuate as the Category2
table below shows.
Category 3
Category 4
Category 5
Non -Surge
Evacuation is Depending o
Perceived Vulnerability by Stor
South Florida
Scenario
Category 1
Don't
Safe
unsafe
know
-
Category 2
Category 1 or 2 Hurricane
South Florida 62%
89%
51%
Category 3
Category 1 50%
87%
55%
Category 2 68%
97%
51%
Category 4
Category 3 65%
94%
39%
Category 4 59%
82%
54%
Category 5
Category 5 59%
82%
54%
Non -Surge
Non -Surge 75%
94%
58%
Category 3 Hurricane
South Florida 74%
95%
80%
Category 1 60%
94%
50%
Category 2 77%
98%
88%
South Florida
Category 3 82%
97%
90%
Category 4 72%
99%
90%
Category 1
Category 5 72%
99%
90%
Non -Surge 82%
9S%
88%
Category 2
Category 5 Hurricane
Category 3
South Florida 76%
96%
82%
Category1 72%
95%
_ 64%
Category4
Category 2 71%
97%
88%
Category 3 62%
99%
90%
Category 5
Category 4 48%
98%
93%
Non -Surge
Category 5 48%
98%
93%
Non -Surge 85%
97%
94%
Evacuation Rates Depending on Perceived
37%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Safe
Unsafe
Don't know
Kerr & Downs Research Regional Evacuation Study I Behavioial Analysis: South Flotida Ro,gion Rehott 39
' ! ! ! ! !' ! R !!' ! !! ! '! I ! f' '! ! !!' ! '! ! WON
• 'Residents of the South Florida region were read the following question:
Suppose that officials DID issue a mandatory evacuation notice saying that everyone living in areas that would be affected by flooding in a
category 1 OR 2 hurricane and everyone living in mobile homes or manufactured housing in your county must evacuate their homes and go to a
safer location. In that case, would you leave your home to go someplace safer?
The purpose of this question is to gauge shadow evacuation. Nearly six in ten South Florida region residents (57%) who
live outside the mandatory evacuation area say they intend to evacuate if officials issue a mandatory evacuation notice for
that everyone living in areas that would be affected by flooding in a category 1 or 2 hurricane and everyone living in mobile
homes or manufactured housing in the entire region. Even 52% of residents living in non -surge zones of coastal counties in
the South Florida region say they intend to evacuate under these circumstances.
County -Level Results
As this type of evacuation notice would include all of Monroe County, shadow evacuation is lowest in non -surge zones in
Miami -Dade County (53%) and Broward County (50%) in the event of a mandatory evacuation notice for people living in
evacuation zones 1 and 2 and in mobile homes.
Would Leave Home if a tory Evacu-
ation o 'ce is Given for Everyone Living
in Category
1 OR 2 Evacuation Zones
and Everyone in Mobile Homes
Don't know/
o
Yes
No
depends
Would Leave Home if Mandatory vacu-
South Florida
239
57%
40%
3%
ation Notice is iven for Everyone Living
Category 1
86
58%
41%
2%
in Category 1 OR 2 Evacuation Zones
Category 2
21
77%
21%
2%
32%
and Everyone in Mobile Homes
Category 3
21
65%
2%
Category 4
22
60%
36%
4%
South Florida
ui 57%
Category
�,FFApfX
d 58%Category
Category 5
29
60%
36%
4%
2
— 77%
Non -Surge
60
52%
45%
4%
Category3
65%
Broward
70
66%
31%
3%
Category4
Category
100%
0%
0%
Category5
60%
Category 2
10
300%
0%
0%
Non -Surge
S2%
Broward
66%
Category 3
65%
32%
2%
Category 1
100%
Category 4
30
65%
32%
2%
Category 2
100%
Category 5
65%
32%
2%
Category 3
65%
Non -Surge
30
50%
44%
5%
Category4
65%
Category 5
— 6S%
Mlaml-Dade
109
59%
39%
3%
Non -Surge
50%
Category 1
19
64%
36%
0%
Miami -Dade
: �ra�a�aEuu_ei 59%
Category 2
65%
32%
2%
Category 1
64%
Category 3
30
65%
32%
2%
Category 2
65%
Category3
65%
Category4
58%
37%
4%Category4
F
30
%
Category5
58%
37%
4%
Category5
t%
Non -Surge
30
53%
45%
3%
Non -Surge
rn"; �punn
Monroe
60
25%
70%
5%
Monroe
25%
Key West
28%
Key West
30
28%
72%
1%
Lower Keys
2%
Lower Keys
10
2%
83%
15%
Middle Keys
38%
Middle Keys
10
38%
62%
0%
Upper Keys
23% �..�. ,._
Upper Keys
30
23%
65%
12%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Kerr & Downs Research
art: _ •�: r !'! - r • tt t:, _ r t + • ► t,' t - r ,r 'tt e
evacuation zonesandever - �,,one in mobilehomes1 to leave. Would.Nouleave# ♦#` • "a
Residents of •uth Florida
region were read the following question:
Suppose that officials DID issue a mandatory evacuation notice saying that everyone living in areas that would be affected by flooding in a
category 1, 2 or 3 hurricane and everyone living in mobile homes or manufactured housing in your county must evacuate their homes and go to
a safer location. In that case, would you leave your home to go someplace safer?
Four out of five residents (81%) in the South Florida region who live in evacuation zones 4 and 5 or in non -surge zones in-
tend to evacuate when faced with the threat of a category 3 hurricane even though the evacuation notice does not pertain
to them. This type of evacuation notice would include all of Monroe County.
County -Level Results
As this type of evacuation notice would include all of Monroe County, shadow evacuation is lowest in evacuation zones 4
and 5 in Miami -Dade County (74%) in the event of a mandatory evacuation notice for people living in evacuation zones 1
through 3 and in mobile homes.
WouldLeave Home if n orEvacu-
ation Notice is Given for Everyone Living
in Category 1, Z or 3 Evacuation Zones
and Everyone in Mobile Homes
Don't know/
tt Yes No depends
South Florida 239 79% 13% 8%
Category 1 86 71% 22% 8%
Category 2
21
89%
9%
2%
Category 3
21
90%
8%
2%
Category 4
22
79%
5%
16%
Category 5
29
79%
5%
16%
Non -Surge
60
83%
11%
6%
Broward
70
86%
7%
6%
Category 1
89%
11%
0%
10
Category 2
89%
11%
0%
Category 3
92%
8%
0%
Category 4
30
92%
8%
0%R
Category 5
92%
8%
0%
Non -Surge
30
83%
_ 5%
11%
Miami -Dade
109
81%
9%
10%
Category 1
19
81%
3%
16%
Category 2
89%
8%
3%
30
Category 3
89%
8%
3%
Category 4
74%
4%
22%
30
Category S
74%
4%
22%
Non -Surge
30
83%
16%
2%
Monroe
60 `
s1%
"%
s%
Key West
30
52%
45%
3%
Lower Keys
10
42%
43%
15%
Middle Keys
10
54%
46%
0%
Upper Keys
10
57%
37%
7%
South Florida
Category 1
Category 2
Category 3
Category 4
Category 5
Non -Surge
Broward
Category 1
Category 2
Category 3
Category 4
Category 5
Non -Surge
Miami -Dade
Category 1
Category 2
Category 3
Category 4
Category S
Non -Surge
Monroe
Key West
Lower Keys
Middle Keys
Upper Keys
r �t# r ♦ t ! # l #
MobileEveryone in #
51%
52%
__jod 42%
. 54%
57%
.....n. --a
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Kerr & Downs Research Rcoional &ocuotiot Study I Bohovioicd Ancdysis South Flo'tida Region Repoit 41
Suppose officials DID issue a mandatory evacuation notice saying everyone living in category 1, Z 3,
or 5 evacuation zones and everyone in mobile homes had to leave. Would you leave to go someplace
safer?
Residents of •uth Florida
region were read the following question:
Suppose that officials DID issue a mandatory evacuation notice saying that everyone living in areas that would be affected by flooding in a
category 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5 hurricane and everyone living in mobile homes or manufactured housing in your county must evacuate their homes and
go to a safer location. In that case, would you leave your home to go someplace safer?
Over nine in ten residents (93%) in the South Florida Region who live in non -surge zones intend to evacuate when faced with
the threat of a category 5 hurricane even though the evacuation notice does not pertain to them. This type of evacuation
notice would include all of Monroe County.
County -Level Results
As this type of evacuation notice would include all of Monroe County, shadow evacuation is highest in Broward County
(95%), while shadow evacuation by residents in non -surge zones is lowest in Miami -Dade County (90%).
Would Leave Home if Mandatory Evacu-
ation Notice is Given for Everyone Living
in Category 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5 Evacuation
Zones and Everyone in MobileHomes
Don't know/
n Yes No depends
South Florida 23893% S% 2%
Category 1 85 90% 6% 4%
Category 2 21 96% 4% 0%
Category 3
21
98%
2%
0%
Category 4
22
96%
4%
0%
Category 5
29
96%
4%
0%
Non -Surge
60
92%
6%
2%
Broward
70'
93%
%
1%
Category 1
89%
11%
0%
30
Category 2
89%
11%
0%
Category 3
93%
7%
0%
Category 4
30
93%
7%
0%
Category 5
93%
7%
0%
Non -Surge
30
95%
3%
2%
Miami -Dade
108
95%
4%
1%
Category 1
18
141Y%-
97%
3%
0%
Category 2
99%
0%
0%
30
Category 3
99%
0%
0%
Category4
97%
3%
0%
---
30
Category 5
97%
3%
0%
Non -Surge
30
90%
7%
2%
Monroe
60
85%
5%
10%
Key West
30
84%
10%
6%
Lower Keys
30
57%
0%
43%
Middle Keys
30
100%
0%
0%
Upper Keys
10
97%
3%
0%
South Florida
Category 1
Category 2
Category 3
Category 4
Category 5
Non -Surge
Broward
Category 1
Category 2
Category 3
Category 4
Category S
Non -Surge
Miami -Dade
Category 1
Category 2
Category 3
Category 4
Category S
Non -Surge
Monroe
Key West
Lower Keys
Middle Keys
Upper Keys
and Everyone in Mobile Homes
6
5%
98%
S%
5%
6
100%
17%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
42 Reyionol Fvacucition Study I Bchaviotal Analysis: South Flocicla Region Report R•
Evacuation Rates Based on Perceived Vulnerability
The tables on this and the subsequent page show the percentages of residents who say they will evacuate based on vari-
ous warnings from Emergency Management officials and based on their perceptions of whether or not they would be safe
remaining in their homes.
At risk zones — evacuation zones i & 2 + mobile homes
Nearly six out of ten residents (57%) living in the South Florida region plan to evacuate based on a mandatory evacuation
notice for evacuation zones 1 and 2 + mobile homes. Propensity for evacuating under these conditions varies somewhat
across evacuation zones 3 through 5 and non -surge zones ranging from a low of 52% in non -surge zones to a high of 65% in
evacuation zone 3.
t risk zones — evacuation zones 1, 2 & 3 + mobile homes
Eight out of ten residents (79%) living in the South Florida region plan to evacuate based on a mandatory evacuation notice
for evacuation zones 1, 2, and 3 + mobile homes. Propensity for evacuating under these conditions is rather stable across
evacuation zones 4 and 5 (79%) and non -surge zones (83%).
At risk zones — evacuation zones 1 through 5 + mobile homes
Over nine out of ten residents (93%) living in non -surge areas in the South Florida region plan to evacuate based on a
mandatory evacuation notice for evacuation zones 1 through 5 + mobile homes.
Intention to Evacuate by Notification
Scenario
Category 1 or
Category L 2,
Category 1, 2,
2 evacuation
or 3 evacua-
3, 4, or 5 evacua-
zones
tion zones
tion zones
South Florida
57%
79%
93%
Category 1
58%
71%
90%
Category 2
77%
89%
96%
Category 3
65%
90%
98%
Category4
60%
79%
96%
Category 5
60%
79%
96%
Non -Surge
52%
83%
92%
South Florida
Category 1
Category 2
Category 3
Category 4
Category 5
Non -Surge
Notification Scer e
i6
6%
98%
6%
6%
6
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Category 1 or 2 Evacuation Zones
Category 1, 2, or 3 Evacuation Zones
R Category 1, 2, 3, 4, or S Evacuation Zones
Downs Research Region6l Evacuation Study I;Beh6vioacil Ancflysis4 South Fieoulca Region Rehott
At risk zones — evacuation zones 1 & 2 + mobile homes
After an evacuation notice for evacuation zones 1 and 2, and mobile homes, nearly half of residents (48%) living in the South
Florida region who feel safe in their homes plan to evacuate. Conversely, after a mandatory evacuation notice for evacua-
tion zones 1 and 2, and mobile homes, 95% of residents in the South Florida region who do not feel safe in their homes plan
to evacuate.
At risk zones — evacuation zones 1, 2 & 3 + mobile homes
After an evacuation notice for evacuation zones 1, 2, 3, and mobile homes, seven out of ten residents (70%) living in the
South Florida region who feel safe in their homes plan to Shadow Evacuation Rates Depending on Perceive
evacuate. Conversely, after a mandatory evacuation notice
for evacuation zones 1, 2, 3, and mobile homes, 94% of Vulnerability in Evacuation Zones 1 and 2
— as%
residents in the South Florida region who do not feel safe in South Florida „,. ,. 95%
their homes plan to evacuate.
t risk zones — evacuation zones 1 through 5 + mobile homes Category i
95%
After an evacuation notice for evacuation zones 1 through 5, Category2 — 66% 97%
and mobile homes, over eight in ten residents (82%) living in -
the South Florida region who feel safe in their homes plan to Category 57% 93%
evacuate. Conversely, after a mandatory evacuation notice
for evacuation zones 1 through 5, and mobile homes, 98% of Category4 sz% so%A 93%
residents in the South Florida region who do not feel safe in a- 52%
their homes plan to evacuate. Category5 1 1 ) 93% MSafe
...il 45% ::., Unsafe
Non -Surge - a, , �« „___,, „„,,.. »J 97% A Don't know
Shadow Evacuation Rates Depending
on Perceived Vulnerability by Storm
Scenario
Safe Unsafe Don't know
Category 1 or 2 Hurricane
South Florida 48% 95% 50%
Category 1 46% 95% 5%
Category 2
66%
97%
82%
egory 3
Category
57%
93%
77%
Category 4
52%
93%
80%
Category 5
52%
93%
80%
Non -Surge
Category 3 Hurricane
South Florida
45%
70%
97%
94%
12%
54%
Category 1
51%
88%
0%
Category 2
55%
100%
100%
Category 3
Category 4
Category 5
71%
65%
65%
100%
97%
97%
96%
92%
92%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Shadow Evacuation Rates Depending on Perceived
Vulnerability in Evacuation Zones 1, 2, and
South Florida ..- V -70% 94%
' 51%
Category 1 », ... �» m 98%
m pppp%% Category2 SS% 100%
Category 3 71% _.. 1%00%
Category4 65% r%7%
DIY°'
Category 5 mom, 65% 97%
e» % Q. Safe
Non -Surge 81% Unsafe
97% :
- 0',.. Don't know
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 1W%
Shadow Evacuation Rates Depending on Perceived
Vulnerability in Evacuation Zones 1, 2, 3, 4, and
South Florida
Non -Surge
81%
97%
61%
Category1
Category 5 Hurricane
Category 2
South Florida
82%
98%
73%
Category 1
87%
95%
56%
0100%
Category3
Category2
66%
100%_.._..,.
Category4
Category 3
88%
99%
100%
'-
Category 5
Category 4
85%
99%
100%
Category 5
85%
99%
100%
�72%
Non -surge
Non -Surge
71%
98%
98%
I%
100%
1
1W%
1�00%
99
SW%u Safe
Unsafe
98% is Don't know
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
44 Regioncil Evacuo tioii Study I Behavior crl Ancilysis; South Flotido Recgiou Roporf •*
s 2
R
E v
8 T U
technical t Report
South Florida Region
��
�»
This page intentionally left blank.
Table
Title
Page
IIIC-1
Evacuation Rates for Residents Living in Site -Built Homes ...............................
IIIC-1
IIIC-2
Out -of -County Trip Rates for Residents Living in Site -Built Homes ....................
IIIC-1
IIIC-3
Vehicle Use Rates for Residents Living in Site -Built Homes ..............................
IIIC-1
IIIC-4
Public Shelter Use Rates for Residents Living in Site -Built Homes .....................
IIIC-2
IIIC-5
Friend / Relative Refuge Use Rates for Residents Living in Site -Built
Homes.........................................................................................................
IIIC-2
IIIC-6
Hotel / Motel Refuge Use Rates for Residents Living in Site -Built Homes ..........
IIIC-2
IIIC-7
Other Refuge Use Rates for Residents Living in Site -Built Homes .....................
IIIC-3
IIIC-8
Evacuation Rates for Residents Living in Mobile and Manufactured Homes .......
IIIC-3
IIIC-9
Out -of -County Trip Rates for Residents Living in Mobile and Manufactured
Homes.........................................................................................................
IIIC-3
IIIC-10
Vehicle Use Rates for Residents Living in Mobile and Manufactured Homes ......
IIIC-4
IIIC-11
Public Shelter Use Rates for Residents Living in Mobile and Manufactured
Homes.........................................................................................................
IIIC-4
IIIC-12
Friend / Relative Refuge Use Rates for Residents Living in Mobile and
Manufactured Homes....................................................................................
IIIC-4
IIIC-13
Hotel / Motel Refuge Use Rates for Residents Living in Mobile and
Manufactured Homes....................................................................................
IIIC-5
IIIC-14
Other Refuge Use Rates for Residents Living in Mobile and Manufactured
Homes.........................................................................................................
IIIC-5
This page intentionally left blank.
Table IIIC-1: Evacuation Rate for Residents Living in Site -Built Homes — Monroe
County
Evacuation Rate (0/6)
Site -Built Homes
Cat 1
Storm
Cat 2
Threat Scenario
Cat 3
Cat 4
Cat 5
Upper Keys
40
50
70
80
90
Middle Keys
35
40
70
80
90
Lower Keys
40
45
70
80
90
Key West
1 35
1 40
1 70
1 80
90
Evacuation rate indicates the percent of residents who will leave their homes to go some place
safer from each zone in each storm threat scenario. Figures are based on the assumption that
off1dals order evacuation for surge evacuation zones corresponding to storm category, plus all
mobile homes and manufactured homes Figures also assume that that the actual storm track
passes very close to the area being evacuated.
Table IIIC-2: Out -of -County Trip Rates for Residents Living in Site -Built Homes —
Monroe County
Out -of -County
Site -Built Homes
Cat 1
Cat 2
Cat 3
Cat 4
Cat 5
Upper Keys
95
95
95
95
95
Middle Keys
95
95
95
95
95
Lower Keys
90
90
90
90
90
Key West
85
85
1 85
85
85
Out -of -county trip rate indicates the percent of evacuees from each zone who will seek refuge
outside their own county of residence in each storm threat scenario.
Table IIIC-3: Vehicle Use Rates for Residents Living in Site -Built Homes — Monroe
County
Vehicle Use Rate 1 !
Site -Built Homes
Cat 1
Storm
Cat 2
Cat 3
Cat 4
Cat 5
Upper Keys
85
85
85
85
85
Middle Keys
80
80
80
80
80
Lower Keys
75
75
75
75
75
Key West
1 90
1 90
1 90
1 90
1 90
Vehicle use rate indicates of percentage of vehicles available to the evacuating household from
each zone that will be used in evacuation in each storm threat scenario.
Note: After the publication of Volume 2-11 — Regional Behavioral Analysis, minor adjustments
were made in vehicle use rates following additional discussion with Monroe County. The rates
in Table IIIC-3 reflect the vehicle use rates employed in the evacuation transportation analysis
Table IIIC-4: Public Shelter Use Rates for Residents Living in Site -Built Homes —
Monroe County
Public Shelter Use Rate (0/6)
Site -Built Homes
Cat 1
Storm
Cat 2
Threat Scenario
Cat 3
Cat 4
Cat 5
Upper Keys
2
2
2
2
2
Middle Keys
2
2
2
2
2
Lower Keys
2
2
2
5
5
Key West
1 2
1 2
1 2
1 5
1 5
Public shelter use rate indicates the percent of evacuees from each zone who will seek refuge in
public shelters, in each storm threat scenario.
Table IIIC-5: Friend / Relative Refuge Use Rates for Residents of Site -Built Homes
— Monroe County
r #
FriendRelative Use Rate
Site -Built Homes
Cat 1
Stormi
Cat 2
Cat 3
Cat 4
Cat 5
Upper Keys
70
70
70
75
75
Middle Keys
50
50
50
55
55
Lower Keys
60
60
60
65
65
Key West
50
1 50
1 50
55
1 55
Friend/ relative rate indicates the percent of evacuees from each zone who will seek refuge in
the homes of friends and relatives, in each storm threat scenario.
Table IIIC-6: Hotel / Motel Refuge Use Rates for Residents of Site -Built Homes —
Monroe County
Hotel / Motel Use Rate
Site -Built Homes
Cat 1
Storm
Cat 2
Threat Scenario
Cat 3
Cat 4
Cat 5
Upper Kes
20
20
20
20
20
Middle Keys
25
25
25
25
25
Lower Keys
25
25
25
25
25
Key West
25
1 25
1 25
1 25
1 25
Hote%motel rate indicates the percent of evacuees from each zone who will seek refuge in
hotels and motels, in each storm threat scenario.
Table IIIC-7: Other Refuge Use Rates for Residents of Site -Built Homes — Monroe
County
Other Refuge(0/6)
Site -Built Homes
Cat 1
Storm
Cat 2
Threat Scenario
Cat 3
Cat 4
Cat 5
Upper Keys
8
8
8
3
3
Middle Keys
23
23
23
18
18
Lower Keys
13
13
13
5
5
Key West
1 23
1 23
1 23
1 15
1 15
Other refuge rate indicates the percent of evacuees from each zone who will seek refuge In
locations such as churches, second homes, and workplaces, in each storm threat scenario.
Table IIIC-8: Evacuation Rate for Residents Living in Mobile and Manufactured
Homes — Monroe County
Evacuation•6
Mobile and Manufactured Homes
Cat 1
Cat 2
Cat 3
Cat 4
Cat 5
Upper Keys
65
75
85
90
95
Middle Keys
65
75
85
90
95
Lower Keys
65
75
85
90
95
Key West
65
75
85
90
95
Evacuation rate indicates the percent of residents who will leave their homes to go some place
safer from each zone in each storm threat scenario. Figures are based on the assumption that
officials order evacuation for surge evacuation zones corresponding to storm category, plus all
mobile homes and manufactured homes Figures also assume that that the actual storm track
passes very close to the area being evacuated.
Table IIIC-9: Out -of -County Trip Rates for Residents Living in Mobile and
Manufactured Homes — Monroe County
•(0/6)
Mobile and Manufactured Homes
Cat 1
Storm
Cat 2
Threat Scenario
Cat 3 Cat 4
Cat 5
Upper Keys
75
75
75
75
75
Middle Keys
75
75
75
75
75
Lower Keys
75
75
75
75
75
Key West
1 75
1 75
1 75
1 75
1 75
Out -of -county trip rate indicates the percent of evacuees from each zone who will seek refuge
outside their own county of residence in each storm threat scenario.
Monroe County Planning Assumptions Page IIIC-3'I
Table IIIC-10: Vehicle Use Rates for Residents Living In Mobile and Manufactured
Homes - Monroe County
Vehicle Use Rate (%)
Mobile and Manufactured Homes
Cat 1
Storm
Cat 2
Threat Scenario
Cat 3
Cat 4
Cat 5
Upper Keys
85
85
85
85
85
Middle Keys
80
80
80
80
80
Lower Keys
75
75
75
75
75
Key West
1 90
1 90
1 90
1 90
1 90
Vehicle use rate indicates of percentage of vehicles available to the evacuating household from
each zone that will be used in evacuation in each storm threat scenario.
Note: After the publication of Volume 2-11 - Regional Behavioral Analysis, minor adjustments
were made in vehicle use rates following additional discussion with Monroe County. The rates
in Table IIIC-10 reflect the vehicle use rates employed in the evacuation transportation
analysis
Table IIIC-11: Public Shelter Use Rates for Residents Living in Mobile and
Manufactured Homes - Monroe County
•(0/6)
Mobile and Manufactured Homes
Cat 1
Storm
Cat 2
Threat Scenario
Cat 3
Cat 4
Cat 5
Upper Keys
5
5
5
10
10
Middle Keys
5
5
5
10
10
Lower Keys
5
5
5
10
10
Key West
5
1 5
1 5
1 10
1 10
Pub/ic she/ter use rate indicates the percent of evacuees from each zone who will seek refuge in
public she/tens, in each storm threat scenario.
Table IIIC-12: Friend / Relative Refuge Use Rates for Residents of Mobile and
Manufactured Homes - Monroe County
Friend " "' .Storm
Mobile and Manufactured Homes
Cat 1
Cat 2
Cat 3
Cat 4
Cat 5
Upper Keys
70
70
70
70
70
Middle Keys
50
50
50
55
55
Lower Keys
60
60
60
65
65
Key West
1 50
1 50
50
1 55
1 55
Friend/ relative rate indicates the percent of evacuees from each zone who will seek refuge in
the homes of friends and relatives, in each storm threat scenario.
Statewide Regional Evacuation Studies Program Volume 1-11 South Florida;
Table IIIC-13: Hotel / Motel Refuge Use Rates for Residents of Mobile and
Manufactured Homes — Monroe County
Hotel / Motel Use Rate (0/6)
Mobile and Manufactured Homes
Cat 1
Storm
Cat 2
Threat Scenario
Cat 3
Cat 4
Cat 5
Upper Keys
20
20
20
20
20
Middle Keys
25
25
25
25
25
Lower Keys
25
25
25
25
25
Key West
1 25
1 25
1 25
1 25
1 25
Hote%motel rate indicates the percent of evacuees from each zone who will seek refuge in
hotels and motels, in each storm threat scenario.
Table IIIC-14: Other Refuge Use Rates for Residents of Mobile and Manufactured
Homes — Monroe County
Other Refuge(0/6)
Mobile and Manufactured Homes
Cat 1
Storm
Cat 2
Threat Scenario
Cat 3
Cat 4
Cat 5
Upper Keys
5
5
5
0
0
Middle Keys
20
20
20
10
10
Lower Keys
10
10
10
0
0
Key West
1 20
1 20
1 20
1 10
1 10
Other refuge rate indicates the percent of evacuees from each zone who will seek refuge in
locations such as churches, second homes, and workplaces, in each storm threat scenario.
Monroe County Planning Assumptions Page IIIC-5
This page intentionally left blank.
Thursday, April 26, 2012
Florida Keys ACSC Hurricane Evacuation Clearance Times Summary
Category 3/
Category 4/
Category S/
Level C
Level 0
level E
Participation
7096
8096
90%
1
2010 Census site -built units
44,630
19 hours
21 hours
23 hours
2
2010 Census site -built units with full allocation
19 hours &
for 10 years
30 Minutes
22 hours
24 hours
44,630 + 3,540)
3
2010 Census site -built units with 50% decrease in
19 hours &
21 hours &
23 hours &
current allocation for 10 years
30 Minutes
30 minutes
30 minutes
44,630 + 1780
4
2010 Census site -built units with 25% decrease in
19 hours &
21 hours &
23 hours &
current allocation for 10 years
30 Minutes
30 minutes
30 minutes
44,630 + 2,660
5
2010 Census site -built units with full allocation
24 hours &
for 10 ears and all mobile homes
Y
22 hours
30 minutes
27 hours
44,630 + 3,.540 + 8,134
2010 Census site -built units with full allocation
6
for 10 years with 1,248 mobile homes (projected
20 hours
22 hours &
24 hours &
conversion to site -built)
30 minutes
30 minutes
(44,630 + 3 540 + 1,248
2010 Census site -built units with 50% decrease in
7
current allocation for 10 years with 1,248 mobile homes
19 hours &
21 hours &
24 hours
representing the projected conversion to site -built
30 Minutes
30 minutes
(44,630 + 1,780 + 1,248)
2010 Census site -built units with 25% decrease in
8
current allocation for 10 years with 1,248 mobile homes
20 hours
22 hours
24 hours
representing the projected conversion to site -built
44,630 + 2,660 + 1,248
These scenarios are based on a 12 hour response curve and using 2010 Census occupancy rates.
0
Thursday, April 26, 2012
Participation
10096
9
Existing Hotel units, 100 hotel units in Marathon, Mobile homes, Military
16 hours &
modeled using hotel occupancy rates for July-
30 minutes
13,665 units + 100 units + 8,134 units + 2,025 vehicles
10
Existing Hotel units, 100 hotel units in Marathon, Mobile homes, Military
15 hours &
modeled using hotel occupancy rates for October
(13,665 units + 100 units + 8134 units + 2,025 vehicles
30 minutes
11
Existing Hotel units, 100 hotel units in Marathon, Mobile homes, Military
modeled using hotel occupancy rates for November
16 hours
13,665 units + 100 units + 8,134 units + 2,025 vehicles
Existing Hotel units, 100 hotel units in Marathon, Mobile homes, Military
12
modeled using hotel occupancy rates for the hurricane season average (June
15 hours and
through November)
30 minutes
(13,665 units +100 units + 8134 units + 2,025 vehicles
13
Hotels, Mobile homes, Military modeled using hotel occupancy rates for July
16 hours &
with an additional 215 units in Key West
30 minutes
(13,665 units + 100 units + 8134 units + 2,025 vehicles + 215 units
a
Thursday, April 26, 2012
Category 5/
Level E
Participation
90%
2010 Census site -built units with 50% decrease in current allocation for 10
14
years and all mobile homes
26 hours &
(44,630 + 1 780 + 8,134
30 minutes
2010 Census site -built units with 25% decrease in current allocation for 10
15
years and all mobile homes
26 hours &
44,630 + 2,660 + 8,134
30 minutes
16
2010 Census Site built units, hotels, mobile homes, Military
35 hours &
44,630 + 13,665 units + 8,134 units + 2,025 vehicles
30 minutes
17
Hotels, Military 100% participation, July occupancy (no mobiles)
14 hours &
(13,665 units + 2,025 vehicles)
30 minutes
18
2010 Census Site built units, mobile homes, 500 additional units
26 hours
(44,630 + 8,134 + 500)
19
2010 Census Site built units, mobile homes, 1,000 additional units
26 hours
44,630 + 8,134 + 1,000
20
2010 Census Site built units, mobile homes, 1,500 additional units
26 hours
44,630 + 8134 + 1,1500)
21
2010 Census Site built units, mobile homes, 2,000 additional units
26 hours
44,630 + 8,134 + 2,000
22
2010 Census Site built units, mobile homes, 2,500 additional units
26 hours &
(44,630 + 8,134 + 2,500
30 minutes
23
2010 Census site -built units, mobile homes, 3,000 additional units
27 hours
44,630 + 8 134 + 3,000
24
2010 Census site -built units, mobile homes and vacant parcels
30 hours &
44 630 + 8134 + 11,282
30 minutes
25
2010 Census site -built units and mobile homes
25 hours &
44,630 + 8,134
30 minutes
Resional Evacuation Run
2010 Census Units (Monroe 44,630) + 5 years full allocation (1,780) + 5
26
years of mobile homes converting to site -built (622), 2015 projections for
24 hours
Miami -Dade & Broward, 2015 Roadway Network
IN
Florida Keys Hurricane Evacuation Data Sheet
April 30, 2012
10 year projections
12 hour response curve
2010 occupancy rates
70% participation for a Category 3 event
80% participation for a Category 4 event
90% participation for a Category 5 event
100% participation from occupied hotels and mobile homes, and the military
Data taken from the 2010 Census supplemented by the American Community Survey, utilizing
40 Traffic Evacuation Zones. The averages listed below are informational only showing the
range or average instead of providing the 40 Traffic Evacuation Zones. All information is
available upon request.
Mobile Homes
Total Units
Occupied units
Vacant units
Occupancy:
Average auto use
Military/FKCC
Tourist
8,134
4,576
3,558
42-80%
1.1 cars -1.5 cars
2,125 cars
Site- built
Total Units
Occupied units
Vacant units
Occupancy average
Average auto use:
Total Units 13,665
Occupied units 9,540
Vacant units 4,125
Occupancy 67-90%
Average auto use 1.1 per unit
Hurricane Season June -November
Data from Smith Travel Report
July is the highest occupancy (i.e. lobster mini -season, Hemingway Days, etc.)
Trends
Conversion of 30.6 percent mobile homes to site built homes over last 20 years
Occupancy rate has declined by 15% since the 1990 Census
44,630
28,053
16,577
49-81 % of units
1.49 -1.5
Aflocation Distribution
1990
2000
2010
Population
% of Total
Population
Population
% of Total
Population
Population
% of Total
Population
Islamorada
**
6.846
8.60%
6,119
8.37%
Key Colony Beach
977
1.25%
788
0.99%
797
1.09%
Key West
24,832
31.83%
25,478
32.01 %
24,649
33.72%
Layton
183
0.23%
186
0.23%
184
0.25%
Marathon
**
10.255
12.88%
8,297
11.35%
Unincorporated Monroe County
52,032
66.69%
36,036
45.28%
33,044
45.21%
Monroe County
78,024
79,5Nj
73,090
Vacant
Parcels
% of Total
Vacant Parcels
Islamorada
1,109
9.78%
Key Colony Beach
92
0.81%
Key West
84
0.74%
Layton
13
0.11%
Marathon
1,281
11.30%
Unincorporated Monroe County
8,758
77.25%
Total Monroe County
11,337
Source: County and Municipalities supplied
Allocations based on the % of Vacant Land
Islamorada
35
Key Colony Beach
3
Key West
3
Layton
1(0.41)
Marathon
40
Unincorporated Monroe County
273
Total
355
*' Not incorporated as of 1990
Source: US Census
Current Allocations
Islamorada
28
Key Colony Beach
6
Key West
90
Layton
3
Marathon
30
Unincorporated Monroe County
197
Total
354
Allocations based on the % of Current Population
Islamorada
30
Key Colony Beach
4
Key West
119
Layton
1
Marathon
40
Unincorporated Monroe County
160
Total
354
a
% vacant
parcels
% Population
% of current
allocation
Islarnorada
9.78%
8.37°%
7.9%
Key Colony Beach
0.81%
1.09%
1.7°%
Key West
0.74%
33.72°%
25.4%
Layton
0.11%
0.25°%
0.8°%
Marathon
11.30%
11.35°%
8.5°%
Unincorporated Monroe County
77.25%
45.21 °%
55.6°%
im,
Local Government
Allocation
Islamorada
28
Key Colony Beach
6
Key West
90
Layton
3
Marathon
30
Unincorporated Monroe
Coun
197
Total
354
25% Reduction In Allocation
Local Government
Allocation
Islamorada
21
Key Colony Beach
4
Key West
68
Layton
2
Marathon
23
Unincorporated Monroe
County
148
Total
266
5 Reduction in Allocation
Local Government
Allocation
Islamorada
14
Key Colony Beach
3
Key West
45
Layton
2
Marathon
15
Unincorporated Monroe
County
99
Total
178
I
5/1/2012
FLORIDA
DEPARTMENTof
ECONOMIC
OPPORTUNITY
Scenario Results
Barbara Powell — Planning Analyst
Area of Critical State Concern Program
Data Update
• Model data updated with
— 2010 Census Data
• Dwelling Units
• Vehicles per Unit
• Occupancy Rate
• Persons per Occupied Unit
— Smith Travel Research (2011)
• Hotel Occupancy
DEv FLORIDA DZPARTM04TdECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY
11
5/1/2012
Assumptions —Tourist Units
• Tourist Units-13,665
• Average Auto Use —1.1 cars per unit
• Occupancy ranges from 67-90%
• July represents the highest hotel occupancy
rates
DEFLORIDA DEPARTMENTdECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY
Assumptions — Mobile Homes
• Mobile Home Units — 8,134
• Average Auto use—1.1-1.5 cars per unit
• Average Occupancy — 42-80%
DES FLORIDA DEPARTMENT dECONOMICOPPORTUNITY
N
5/1/2012
Assumptions — Site -built
• Site -built Units — 44,630
• Average Auto use —1.49 —1.5 cars per unit
• Average Occupancy — 49-81%
DEY FLORIDA DEPARTMENrf ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY
Assumptions —Special Populations
• NAS — Key West — 2,025 vehicles
• Florida Keys Community College —100
vehicles
DES FLORIDADEPARTMENTifECONOMICOPPORTUNTTY
3
5/1/2012
Trends
• Conversion of 30.6% of mobile homes to site
built homes in the past 20 years
• Occupancy rate has declined 9.2% since the
2000 Census
DET FLORIDA DEPARTMENT dECONOMIC OPPORTUNRtt
Scenarios
Category 3/ Category 4/ Category
r t+�G7
DE`S`,"r
PLORIDADER4RTMENT♦ECONOMICOPPORTUNITY
S/
Level C
Level D
Level E
Participation
70%
80% '
90%
2010 Census site -built units
1
19 hours
21 hours
23 hours
(44,630)
2010 Census site -built units with full
19 hours &
2
allocation for 10 years
22 hours
24 hours
30 minutes
(44,630 + 3,540)
2010 Census site -built units with 50%
19 hours &
21 hours &
23 hours &
3
decrease in current allocation for 10 years
30 minutes
30 minutes
30 minutes
44,630 + 1,780)
2010 Census site -built units with 25%
19 hours &
21 hours &
23 hours &
4
decrease in current allocation for 10 years
30 minutes
30 minutes
30 minutes
(44,630 + 2,660)
r�
v
5/1/2012
Scenarios
2010 Census site -built units with full
6 allocation for 10 years with 1,248 mobile
homes (projected conversion to site -built)
(44,630 + 3,540 + 1,248)
2010 Census site -built units with 50%
7 decrease in current allocation for 10 years
with 1,248 mobile homes
(44,630 + 1,780 + 1,248)
2010 Census site -built units with 25%
8 decrease in current allocation for 10 years
with 1,248 mobile homes
(44,630 + 2,660 + 1,248)
Category 3/ 1 Category 4/ 1 Category S/
22 hours &
20 hours
30 minutes
F24h..
19 hours &
21 hours &
30 minutes
30 minutes
20 hours
22 hours
24 hours
DES FLORIDA DEPARTMENT4 ECONOMIC OPPORTUNrTY
Scenarios
DES s FLORIDA DEPNRTMMWfZCOMOMIC OPPORTUNITY
5/1/2012
Scenarios
Existing Hotel units, IGO hotel units in Marathon, Mobile homes, Military modeled
9
using hotel occupancy rates for July
16 hours &
(13,665 units + 100 units + 8,134 units + 2,025 vehicles)
30 minutes
Existing Hotel units, 100 hotel units in Marathon, Mobile homes, Military modeled
10
using hotel occupancy rates for October
15 hours &
1(13,665 units + 100 units + 8,134 units + 2,025 vehicles)
30 minutes
Existing Hotel units, 100 hotel units in Marathon, Mobile homes, Military
11
modeled using hotel occupancy rates for November
16 hours
(13,665 units + 100 units + 8,134 units + 2,025 vehicles)
Existing Hotel units, 100 hotel units in Marathon, Mobile homes, Military modeled
using hotel occupancy rates for the hurricane season average (June through
15 hours &
12
November)
30 minutes
1(13,665 units +100 units + 8,134 units + 2,025 vehicles)
Hotels, Mobile homes, Military modeled using hotel occupancy rates for July with
16 hours &
13
an additional 215 units in Key West
(13,665 units + 100 units + 8,134 units + 2,025 vehicles + 215 units)
30 minutes
Hotels, Military 100% participation, July occupancy (no mobiles)
14 hours &
17
(13,665 units + 2,025 vehicles)
30 minutes
DE,"'J""'" FLORIDA DEF%JRTMEW,/ ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY
Scenarios
DE,4"J�*' FLORIDA DEPARTME111'rifECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY
.1
5/1/2012
Scenarios
aaia,,s/Lwa
Participation
90%
16
2010 Census Site built units, hotels, mobile homes, Military
(44,630 + 13,665 units + 8,134 units + 2,025 vehicles)
24
2010 Census site -built units, mobile homes and vacant parcels
(44,630 + 8,134 + 11,282)
DE;,` FLORIDA DEPARTMENT,/ ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY
Scenarios
Regional Evacuation Run
Category S/
Level E
Participation
90%
2010 Census Units (Monroe 44,630) + 5 years full allocation (1,780) + 5
26
years of mobile homes converting to site -built (622), 2015 projections for
24 hours
Miami -Dade & Bwward, 2015 Roadway Network
N
y� i FLORIDA DEF*JT MENTd ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY
u
5/1/2012
FLORIDA KEYS ACSC
MOU Assumptions and variables
-
EST -..A
dl
�k
EY LARGO
FLORIDA BAY
- AVERNIER
GULF OF MEXICO
-.-"
ISLAMORAOA
[O.N
BIG PINE wW�
W U4r
KEY,
L. ATNON
a Uke 4f
t„.�� FWRIDA D6PARTM6NTdECONOMIC OPPORTUNRY
Statutory Chapter 163.3178(9)(a)
The adopted level of service for out -of -county hurricane
evacuation is maintained for a Category 5 storm event as
measured on the Saffir-Simpson scale.
For those local governments that have not established a
level of service for out -of -county hurricane evacuation by
July 1, 2008, by following the process in paragraph (a),
the level of service shall be no greater than 16 hours for a
Category 5 storm event as measured on the Saffir-
Simpson scale.
DEFLORIDA DEPARTMENT dECONOMIC OPPORTIINTTY
5/1/2012
•F
This subsection shall become effective immediately
and shall apply to all local governments.
The Keys local governments adopted their level of
service standard for evacuation prior to July 1,
2008.
DEW"'
FLORIDA DEPrARTMENTdECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY
STATUTORY
Chapter 380.0552(9)(a)2., F.S.
— Protect public safety and welfare in the event of a
natural disaster by maintaining a hurricane
evacuation clearance time for permanent residents
of no more than 24 hours.
—Principles for Guiding Development
— Provide adequate alternatives for the protection of
public safety in the event of a disaster
— Ensure population of keys can be evacuated
DES FLORIDA DEPARTMENTiECONOMIC OPPORTUNRY
FA
5/1/2012
Assumptions/variables
• Modeling for worst case scenario
Hurricane Category 5 Event
• Evacuation time cannot exceed 24
hours
DE�v' FLORIDA DEPARTMENTt ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY
Commencement and Completion of
Evacuation
• For the purposes of hurricane evacuation
clearance time modeling purposes, clearance
time shall begin when the Monroe County
issues
the evacuation order for Phase // of the
evacuation for a hurricane that is classified as
a Category 3, 4, or 5 wind event or Category C-
E surge event...
DE° a FLORIDA DMIRLM MENTdECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY
3
5/1/2012
Transient Units modeled and data
sources
Transient units: 13,665
Occupied: 9,540
Vacant: 4,125
The data source for the number and type of units
and vehicular use is the Statewide Regional
Evacuation Studies Program and the Department of
Business and Professional Regulation. The data
source for occupancy of transient units is the Smith
Travel Research Data for 2011.
EFLORIDA DERARTMENTdECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY
Mobile Units
• 8,134 mobile home units
• 4,576 occupied
• 3,558 vacant
The data source for the number and type of units,
the vehicular use and occupancy of the units is the
2010 Census Survey supplemented by the American
Communities Survey 2006-2010
DEFLORIDA DEPARTMENTiECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY
5/1/2012
Site built units
— 44,630 units
— 28,053 occupied
—16,577 vacant units.
The data source for the number, type,
occupancy, and vehicular use is the 2010 Census
supplemented by the American Communities
Survey 2006-2010 and the Statewide Regional
Evacuation Studies Program
DE�u,
�FLORIDA DEPARTMENTIECONOMIC OPPORTUNTTY
Response Curve
12 hours for all unit types
as utilized in the Statewide
Regional Evacuation
Studies Program.
DE4 FLORIDA DEPARTMENT dECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY
5/1/2012
Participation
—Tourist units: 100%
— Mobile homes:100%
— Site -built homes:
• 70% for a Category 3 event
• 80% for a Category 4 event
• 90% for a Category 5 event
DEw FLORIDA DEPARTMENTdECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY
Occupancy Rate Mobiles
Average Occupancy Rate
• Key West 80.4%
• Lower Keys 68.0%
• Middle Keys 52.2%
• Upper Keys 42.0%
Based on 2010 Census/American Communities Survey
DEs FLORIDA DEPARTMENTIECONOMIC OPPORTUNrrY 7d
N.
5/1/2012
Occupancy Rate site -built
Average Occupancy Rate
• Key West
81.2%
• Lower Keys
67.1 %
• Middle Keys
49.7%
• Upper Keys 54.9%
Based on 2010 Census/American Communities Survey
DES FLORIDA DEPAR7MENTdECONOMIC OPPORTUNTf
Hotel Occupancy
Location
Months
Key West
Monroe
County w/o
Key West
Key Largo
Marathon
Islmnorada
June
85.1%
71.7%
73.80/a
74.8%
63.3%
July
90.5%
75.9%
77.8%
79.0%
67.5%
August
77.7%1
61.3%
62.2%
64.8%
53.1%
September
63.2%
45.3%
47.9%1
44.9%
40.3%
October
74.7%
52.8%
55.9%
52.9%
46.1%
November
85.2%
63.5%
67.3%
62.3%
58.5%
Hurricane Season
Averse
79.4%1
61.8%
64.2%
63.1%1
54.8%
DEW°ter
"FLORIDA FLORIDA DERkRTMENTdECONOMIC OPPORrUNrrY
VA
5/1/2012
Vehicle Usage Rates
Mobile Home
DEFLORIDA DEPARTMENT,, ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY
Usage
Rates
Cars per
household
Key West
90%
1.10
Lower Keys
75%
1.55
Middle Keys
80%
1.52
Upper Keys
85%
1.56
Vehicle Usage
Rates
Site -built
DE��� `"� FLORIDA DEPARTMENTdECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY
Usage
Rates
Cars per
household
Key West
90%
1.21
Lower Keys
75%
1.43
Middle Keys
80%
1.51
Upper Keys
85%
1.49
5/1/2012
Vehicle Usage Special Population
Florida Keys Community College 100 vehicles
N.A.S. Key West 2,025 vehicles
DE, FLORIDA DEPARTM6HTdECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY '71d
Vehicle Usage Hotels
1.1 cars per unit
DE��" FLORIDA DEPARTMEWifMCONOMIC OPPORTUNITY
5/1/2012
Highway Capacity
• Maximum Sustainable Traffic Flow Rates per
Functional Evacuation Lane for Hurricane
Evacuation Purposes
DEFLORIDA DEPARTMEWO'ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY
Evacuation Stream
• Monroe County only
DEa��
S � FLORIDA DZPARTMENTIECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY
10
5/1/2012
Evacuation Procedure
• Approximately 48 hours in advance of tropical storm
winds, a mandatory evacuation of non-residents,
visitors, recreational vehicles (RV's), travel trailers, live -
aboard boats, state parks and camp grounds (transient
and non -transient), and military personnel
• Approximately 36 hours in advance of tropical storm
winds, a mandatory evacuation of mobile home
residents, special needs residents, and hospital and
nursing home patients
• Approximately 30 hours in advance of tropical storm
winds, a mandatory phased evacuation of permanent
residents :
DEFLORIDA DEPARTMENT,/ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY
Phased Evacuation
Mods Rome
Resldards Ordarad
pndktad Traptal
TourWt Ordered to
to ENaotw Ske-bufR Rome
Storm F—Winds
ft ...W
ResideMe Orderad to
48
E\rutmte
42 36 30 24 18 12
6 0
..... _. .......
lam
1pm 7pm lam 7am 1pm 7pm
lam 7am
a;
S a
DEr
FLORIDA DEPARTMENrf ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY
11