Item M15BOARD OF COUNTY COMMISSIONERS
AGENDA ITEM SUMMARY
Meeting Date: March 21, 2012 Division: BOCC
Bulls Item: Yes _ No Y Department:
Staff Contact Person/Phone #: Commissioner Murphy x8787
AGENDA ITEM WORDING: Discussion regarding the State of Florida Department of Economic
Opportunity Hurricane Evacuation Clearance Time Work Group meetings and direction on hurricane
model scenarios.
ITEM BACKGROUND: Rule 28-20.140, F.A.C., which was ratified by the Legislature in 2011,
includes five Work Program Tasks that require the Department of Economic Opportunity (formerly
DCA) to enter into a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with the Division of Emergency
Management, City of Marathon, Village of Islamorada, City of Key West, City of Key Colony Beach,
and City of Layton regarding hurricane evacuation. The MOU will address the input variables and
assumptions, including regional considerations, to depict hurricane evacuation clearance times for the
population of the Florida Keys. Utilizing recent U.S. Census data, the MOU will be the basis for
completing an analysis of maximum build -out capacity and to determine the remaining allocations and
distribution of the remaining development potential while allowing the permanent population to
evacuate within 24 hours. Pursuant to Rule 28-20.140, F.A.C., the hurricane evacuation related tasks
have a due date of July 1, 2012.
The Department of Economic Opportunity has hosted two (2) Hurricane Evacuation Clearance Time
Work Group (Work Group) meetings to discuss the requirements of the Administration Commission
Rules, the Statewide Regional Evacuation Study Program model (hurricane model), model inputs,
Census data, behavioral studies, hurricane forecasting, military evacuation procedures, traffic flow
rates, private property rights and takings cases, the draft MOU, etc. Attached are the materials
presented during the January 30, 2012, meeting and a portion of the materials presented during the
February 27, 2012 meeting. At the next Work Group Meeting, the Department of Economic
Opportunity will be presenting various model scenarios and the resulting clearance times. Included in
the attachments are scenario requests developed by County staff. The next Work Group meeting is
tentatively scheduled for April 30, 2012.
PREVIOUS RELEVANT BOCC ACTION: N/A
CONTRACT/AGREEMENT CHANGES: N/A
STAFF RECOMMENDATION: N/A
TOTAL COST: INDIRECT COST: BUDGETED: Yes No
DIFFERENTIAL OF LOCAL PREFERENCE:
COST TO COUNTY: SOURCE OF FUNDS:
REVENUE PRODUCING: Yes No AMOUNT PER MONTH Year
APPROVED BY: County Atty _ OMB/Purchasing Risk Management
DOCUMENTATION: Included X Not Required
DISPOSITION: AGENDA ITEM 9
January 30, 2012
Hurricane Evacuation Clearance Time
Work Group Meeting
Summary of Agendas for 2012 Hurricane Evacuation Clearance Time
Work Group Meetings
January 30, 2012
Marathon Fire Station, City of Marathon
Finalized Agenda — Meeting 1
10:00 — 10:15 AM
Welcome & Opening Remarks
Pete Worthington
10:15 — 10:45 AM
Administration Commission Directive and Process
Christine Hurlev
10:45 — 11:15 AM
Statewide Regional Evacuation Study Pro ram Model
Jeff Alexander
11:15 — 12:00 PM
MN,-ths and Facts
Rebecca Jetton
12:00 —1':00 PM
Lunch (collect $ & order sandwiches)
1:00 — 1:30 PM
National Hurricane Forecasting
James Franklin
1:30 — 2:00 PM
Behavioral Studies
Barbara Powell
2:00 — 2:30 PM
Census Data
Richard O burn
2`:30 — 2:45 m'
Break
2:45 — 3:15 PM
HistoiN- of Modeling in Keys and Parameters Utilized
Mayte Santamaria
3:15 — 3:45 PM
Public Comments & Questions
3:45 — 4:00 PM
Local Government & Special Interest Group Input
Hand out blank, draft MOU for next meeting
February 27, 2012
Harvey Government Center, City of Key West
Tentative Agenda — Meeting 2
10:00 — 10:15 AM
Welcome & Opening Remarks
Teri Johnston
10:15 — 10:45 AM
DRAFT MOU Overview
10:45 — 11:15 AM
Participation Rate Variable
11:15 — 11:45 AM
Road Capacity and Shoulder Enhancements
1145 —12:45 PM
Lunch (collect $ & order sandwiches)
12:45 — 1:15 PM
Occupancy Rate Variable
1:15 — 1:45 PM
Vacant Land Analysis
1 45 — 2 15 PM
Break
2:15 — 3:15 PM
Scenario Run Results
3:15 — 3:45 PM
Public Input
3:45 — 4:00 PM
Local Government & Special Interest Group Input
Public Comments & Questions
March 30, 2012
Murray E. Nelson Government Center, Key Largo
Tentative Agenda — Meeting 3
10:00 — 10:15 AM
Welcome & Opening Remarks
Sylvia Murphy
10:15 — 10:30 AM
Scenario Run Results
10:30 — 11:00 AM
New Scenario Requests
11:00 — 12:00 PM
Revisions to Current Policies
12:00 —1':00 PM
Lunch (collect $ & order sandwiches)
1:00 — 1:30 PM
Tourist Evacuation and Scenarios
1:30 — 2:00 PM
Private Property Rights
Richard Shine
2:00 — 2:30 PM
DRAFT MOU Overview
2:30-2:45 PM
Break
2:45 — 3:15 PM
Allocation and Distribution of ROGO
3:15 — 3:35 PM
Public Comment
3:35 — 4:00 PM
Local Government & Special Interest Group Input
Public Comments & Questions
MONROE COUNTY - AREA OF CRITICAL
STATE CONCERN (ACSC)
PERMIT ALLOCATION SYSTEM (RATE OF GROWTH
ORDINANCE) DEVELOPED TO DISTRIBUTE THE COUNTY'S
FUTURE GROWTH CAPACITY
BASED ON:
- HURRICANE EVACUATION,
- PUBLIC SAFETY, AND
- ENVIRONMENTAL NEEDS INCLUDING
WATER QUALITY AND HABITAT PROTECTION
1
RULE 28-20.140, F. A. C. MONROE COUNTY
MUNICIPALITIES HAVE THEIR OWN SIMILAR
RULES
(2) POLICY 101.2.13 MONROE COUNTY WORK PROGRAM CONDITIONS
AND OBJECTIVES.
(B) THE NUMBER OF PERMITS ISSUED ANNUALLY FOR RESIDENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE RATE OF GROWTH ORDINANCE SHALL NOT EXCEED
A TOTAL ANNUAL UNIT CAP OF 197, PLUS ANY AVAILABLE UNUSED ROGO
ALLOCATIONS FROM A PREVIOUS ROGO YEAR. EACH YEAR'S ROGO ALLOCATION
OF 197 UNITS SHALL BE SPLIT WITH A MINIMUM OF 71 UNITS ALLOCATED FOR
AFFORDABLE HOUSING IN PERPETUITY AND MARKET RATE ALLOCATIONS NOT
TO EXCEED 126 RESIDENTIAL UNITS PER YEAR. UNUSED ROGO ALLOCATIONS
MAY BE RETAINED AND MADE AVAILABLE ONLY FOR AFFORDABLE HOUSING
AND ADMINISTRATIVE RELIEF FROM ROGO YEAR TO ROGO YEAR. UNUSED
ALLOCATIONS FOR MARKET RATE SHALL BE AVAILABLE FOR ADMINISTRATIVE
ANY UNUSED
ABLE HOUSIN
BEGINNING ON DULY
2
POLICY 216.1.8
OF THE MONROE COUNTY COMPREHENSIVE PLAN
IN THE EVENT OF A PENDING MAJOR HURRICANE (CATEGORY 3-5) MONROE COUNTY SHALL
IMPLEMENT THE FOLLOWING STAGED/PHASED EVACUATION PROCEDURES TO ACHIEVE
AND MAINTAIN AN OVERALL 24-HOUR HURRICANE EVACUATION CLEARANCE TIME FOR THE
RESIDENT POPULATION.
1. APPROXIMATELY 48 HOURS IN ADVANCE OF TROPICAL STORM
WINDS, A MANDATORY EVACUATION OF NON- RESIDENTS, VISITORS,
RECREATIONAL VEHICLES (RV'S), TRAVEL TRAILERS, LIVE-ABOARDS
(TRANSIENT AND NON- TRANSIENT), AND MILITARY PERSONNEL FROM
THE KEYS SHALL BE INITIATED. STATE PARKS AND CAMPGROUNDS
SHOULD BE CLOSED AT THIS TIME OR SOONER AND ENTRY INTO THE
FLORIDA KEYS BY NON-RESIDENTS SHOULD BE STRICTLY LIMITED.
2. APPROXIMATELY 36 HOURS IN ADVANCE OF TROPICAL STORM
WINDS, A MANDATORY EVACUATION OF MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS,
SPECIAL NEEDS RESIDENTS, AND HOSPITAL AND NURSING HOME
3. APPROXIMAT R
WINDS, A MANDAT PHASE PE
RESIDENTS BY EVACUATION Z DBE
INITIATED.
28-20.140 (4), FAC
Policy 216.1.19. Hurricane Modeling.
For the purposes of hurricane evacuation clearance time
modeling purposes, clearance time shall begin when the
Monroe County Emergency Management Coordinator issues
the evacuation order for permanent residents for a hurricane
that is classified as a Category 3-5 wind event or Category C-E
surge event.
The termination point shall be U.S. Highway One and the
Florida Turnpike in Homestead/Florida City.
3
RULE 28-20.140, F. A. C.
(5) WORK PROGRAM
11. BY JULY 1, 2012, MONROE COUNTY SHALL ENTER INTO A
MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDING WITH THE:
DEPARTMENT OF COMMUNITY AFFAIRS
DIVISION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
MARATHON ISLAMORADA
KEY WEST KEY COLONY BEACH
LAYTON
RULE 28-20.140, F. A. C.
(5) WORK PROGRAM
11. BY JULY 1, 2012, MONROE COUNTY SHALL ENTER INTO A
MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDING WITH THE
AFTER A NOTICE AND COMMENT PERIOD OF AT
LEAST 30 DAYS FOR INTERESTED PARTIES.
al
Rule 28-20.140, F. A. C.
(5) Work program
11. By July 1, 2012, Monroe County shall enter into a memorandum of
understanding based on:
UPDATED DATA AND ANALYSIS
AND
AGREED UPON INPUT VARIABLES AND
ASSUMPTIONS
for utilizing the Florida Keys Hurricane Evacuation
Model or other models acceptable to the Department to
accurately depict evacuation clearance times for the
RULE 28-20.140, F. A. C.
(5) WORK PROGRAM
12. BY JULY 1, 2012,
THE FLORIDA KEYS HURRICANE EVACUATION MODEL SHALL BE RUN
WITH THE AGREED UPON VARIABLES FROM THE MEMORANDUM OF
UNDERSTANDING TO COMPLETE
AN ANALYSIS OF MAXIMUM BUILD -OUT CAPACITY FOR THE FLORIDA
KEYS AREA OF CRITICAL STATE CONCERN, CONSISTENT WITH THE
REQUIREMENT TO MAINTAIN A 24-HOUR EVACUATION CLEARANCE
TIME AND THE FLORIDA KEYS CARRYING CAPACITY STUDY
CONSTRAINTS.
THIS ANALYSIS S]
DEPARTMENT OF
THE KEYS.
5
RULE 28-20.140, F. A. C.
(5) WORK PROGRAM
14. BY JULY 1, 2012, THE
DEPARTMENT OF COMMUNITY AFFAIRS
SHALL APPLY THE DERIVED CLEARANCE TIME TO ASSESS AND
DETERMINE THE REMAINING ALLOCATIONS FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
AREAS OF CRITICAL STATE CONCERN.
THE DEPARTMENT WILL RECOMMEND APPROPRIATE REVISIONS TO
THE ADMINISTRATION COMMISSION REGARDING THE ALLOCATION
RATES AND DISTRIBUTION OF ALLOCATIONS TO MONROE COUNTY,
MARATHON, ISLAMORADA, KEY WEST, LAYTON AND KEY COLONY
BEACH OR IDENTIFY ALTERNATIVE EVACUATION STRATEGIES THAT
SUPPORT THE 24 HOUR EVACUATION CLEARANCE TIME. IF
NEC
WORK
COMPREHENSIVE
AND DISTRIBUTIONS
ADMINISTRATION COM
Rule 28-20.140, F. A. C.
(5) Work program
14. By July 1, 2012, the
The Department will recommend appropriate revisions to the
Administration Commission regarding the allocation rates
and distribution of allocations to Monroe County, Marathon,
Islamorada, Key West, Layton and Key Colony Beach
L
RULE 28-20.140, F. A. C.
(5) WORK PROGRAM
15. BY JULY 1, 2013,
THE DEPARTMENT OF COMMUNITY AFFAIRS SHALL WORK WITH EACH
LOCAL GOVERNMENT TO
AMEND THE COMPREHENSIVE PLAN TO REFLECT
REVISED ALLOCATION RATES AND DISTRIBUTION
m
PROPOSE RULE MAKING TO THE ADMINISTRATION
COMMISSION.
7
■
SRESP Awards Received
■ The National Association of Development
Organizations: ���
Natiwards
2011al AInnovation Award �:D
2011 Trailblazer Award
■ The Florida Planning and Zoning Association:
2011 Outstanding Public Study Award QNna—
• The American Planning Association:
2012 National Planning Award
Best Practices in Hazard Mitigation and
Disaster Planning
4merltan Planning Assoelat Ion,
■ National Association of Regional Councils:
National Award ' l NARC
2011 Major Metro Achievement Award
2
South Florida's Regional Evacuation Stud (8
Volumes,12 books on DVD)
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Critical Components of New Methodology
LIDAR
• Demographic and Land Use Analysis
' Critical Facilities Inventory
• Regional Evacuation Transportation Network Analyses
• Definition of relevant terms
Delineation of the five surge zones (1-5) and five
evacuation zones (A-E)
Evacuation transportation analysis
' Clearance and Evacuation Times
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WAR & NOAA's SLOSH Model
' Datum updated to NAVD88
• Much higher SLOSH grid
resolution
• More than 130,000
hypothetical storms
modeled statewide with
varying forward speed, size
and astronomical tide
Comparison
of SLOSH
Grids
Previous SLOSH Basin
(1991) +
+2009 SLOSH Basin
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• Don't expect new zones to compare to old zones —
underlying elevation and higher resolution of grids may
result in very different zones.
• View new zones over new contours ASAP. This usually
ralmc yni it initial raartinn ac yni i caa hn\A/ rincaly tha
zones follow these improved contours.
New Surge Zones 15
The Result From a Surge Model Run:
"- S.19eTool_V29i4.mxd - ArcMap - ArcInfo ■
Typical Storm
Tide Atlas
Page
Florida Atlas Creation Process
The SLOSH is run by the National Hurricane Center, Tropical Prediction
Laboratory in Miami, they work with the National Meteorological Data
Laboratory in Washington DC NOAA headquarters, to finalize the Data
and cross check the results. The LiDAR was collected by a series of
professional firms and delivered to FDEM, a contractor conducted
quality control and verified the data meet the standards established by
the program. Then SLOSH and LiDAR Digital Elevation Model Data are
then combined in the SIM (the Surge Inundation Model), the results are
reviewed by the FDEM and checked to ensure they meet the standards
established by the program. The SIM data is then processed through
the Mapbook extension and we apply the template developed by Delta
State University which aligns it into the geospatial National Grid, the
outputs are then hand checked against the grid for alignment. This
produces the final product that is reviewed and accepted by the FDEM
as complete.
Surge Inundation Model (SIM) and
SIM Mapbook extension
What is SIM/Mapbook Extension and how it works (in layperson
terms)
Outputs of SIM/Mapbook Extension and what they are used for
SIM margin for adverse deviation
Difference between storm surge and storm surge inundation
Difference between evacuation zones and storm surge
inundation limits
Why change from NGVD 29 to NAVD 88. Practical implications.
Why it is crucial to know the datum when reading and
comparing inundation or elevation maps
New "alpha" designations for evacuation zones
What is an inundation depth chart/map and its uses
'ALL MAC-
EXM Storm Surge
Zones
oweR
i
wPUWM
�Z—
A-
M Um iron
- � was kern
Evacuation
Zones ;
�r
y ,yNi i
11
These ranges are
not fixed.
Understanding of Risk
Potential Storm Tide Heights by County
(in feet above NAVD88)
*Storm Strength Broward Miami -Dade Monroe
Category 1
Up to 3.1'
Up to 5.0'
Up to 7.9'
Category 2
Up to 4.7'
Up to 8.2'
Up to 12.2'
Category 3
Up to 6.2'
Up to 11.4'
Up to 16.4'
Category 4
Up to 8.3'
Up to 14.2'
Up to 20.0'
Category 5
Up to 9.5'
Up to 16.5'
Up to 23.3'
*Based on the category of storm on the Safr-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale
** Surge heights represent the maximum values from SLOSH MOMS,
23
Surge & Evacuation Zones
Evacuation zones are the most used
^----�---� -r - Evacuation ��---�--
rroauct or an Evacuation Study.
Surge Zones are used as a basis to delineate those
Evacuation Zones
Surge zones Tool allows a scientific and reproducible
method to create inundation
GIS can cut the time to end product
Surge Zones and Evacuation Zones
14
Fable ES-11— 2010 Clearance Times for Base Scena no
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15
Evacuation Model Settings (County)
•�� ER
Caualyyvirle SetlinS_
Evac.
Zane
Response Curves
Phasing
Pasco g
Ghour curve
Evacuation begins in hour l
Pinellas g ®
Ghour curve
Evacuation begins in hourl
Hillsborough A
Ghour curve
Evacuation begins in hourl
Manalee
Ghour curve
Evacuation begins in hour l
Sarasota E71
Ghaurcurve
Evacuation begins in hour l
Chadotte �
Ghourcurve �
Evacuation begins In hourl
Nemando ED
Ghour curve
begins in hour3
begins in hour6
begins in hour9
7-g
begins in hour12
begins in hourl5 begins in hourl8
be ins in hour2115
❑'^
c Regional sei,p Ehekers Wings >
16
Do NOT Include
Nassau County Evacuation Rates for Mobile and
Manufactured Homes
Nassau Evacuation Rates (%) Storm Threat Scenario
Cat 1
Cat 2
Cat 3
Cat 4
Cat 5
Level A Surge Evacuation Zone'
6511
75
85
95
F'1 00
T!veB Surge Evacuation Zone
00 65 9F
70
85
95
95
Level C Surge Evacuation Zone
60
70
80
90
95
Level D Surge Evacuation Zone 60
70
80
90
90
Level E Surge Evacuation Zone 60
70
80
85
90
_ Inland of Surge Zones
55
60
80
85
90
The Future of Planning
' Evacuation Planning is undergoing a significant
change:
tioiII increases
IU
Communication evolution
Storm Categories redefinition
Zones:
Storm Surge
Evacuation A, B, C, D, E,...
` Scenario Based Decision Making:
Need scenario based clearance times
Need vulnerability scenarios
Need situational forecasting
Storm Surge Decision Support Wedge
Why did the NHC decouple storm surge from Saffir-
Simpon Scale?
' Factors that affect storm surge?
What is MOM?
What is MEOW?
What is included in NHC Advisory/NWS Local
Statement?
What is Probabilistic Storm Surge?
The case for adhering to the Storm Surge Decision
Support Wedge
• Fly your LiDAR before you begin the project.
• Due to coarseness of SLOSH, development of digital elevation
models may proceed on initial LiDAR deliverables.
• Consider expanding extent of SLOSH grids at beginning of
project.
• Make sure you collect LiDAR far enough inland.
• Coordinate closely with NOAA MDL and NHC on everything
SLOSH.
• Work with local Emergency Managers to understand that new
SLOSH runs modeling larger storms will result in increased risk.
Lesson Learned 37
Jeffrey Alexander, Director
a alexander(@nefrc.org
Northeast Florida Regional Council
SRESP Statewide Coordinator
904 279-0885 ext 134
DEPARTMENT
FLORIDA
DEPARTMENT of
Zop-
ECONOMIC
OPPORTUNITY
Myths and Facts About Hurricane
Evacuation Modeling
Rebecca Jetton
FLORIDA KEYS ACSC
COLLABORATIVE EFFORT TO
PROJECT THE NEXT TEN YEARS OF HC� ESTEAD
GROWTH I
E•.giad.+ �
Heionot neck i
EY IARGO
FLORIDA BAY :t'�fAYERNIER
GULF OF MEXICO
- ./ISLAMORADA
�.�Fmc �•r u�.aea�ei e.:
BIG PINE
KEY
AIZAT14
`XN slam Po,t
CLY AESICM1
DESFLORIDA DEPARTMEWr4 ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY
Potential Outcomes for Ten
Year Allocation
• Maintain the current allocation
• Decrease the allocation
• Re -distribute the allocation based on vacant
land analysis
• Revise evacuation policies
• Expand mitigation approaches
DEE�) FLORIDA DEPARTMENT f ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY
STATUTORY
—Chapter 380.0552(9)(a)2., F.S.
• Goals, objectives, and policies to protect public safety and
welfare in the event of a natural disaster by maintaining a
hurricane evacuation clearance time for permanent
residents of no more than 24 hours.
—Principles for Guiding Development
—Chapter 163.3177, F.S.
• Limit public expenditures that subsidize development of
CHHA.
D" FLORIDA DEPARTMENT f ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY
2
Past Efforts in the Keys
• Monroe County adopted 30-hour standard in the
Comprehensive Plan with the long term goal to
achieve 24 hours.
• Comprehensive Plan was challenged and the Final
Order found that the maximum acceptable clearance
time should be 24 hours.
• 24 Hours was consistent with forecasting capability
DEE�) FLORIDA DEPARTMENT f ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY
Stipulated Settlement
Agreement
-Hurricane Carrying Capacity Concept
-Limit development based on ability to
evacuate
-Provided time to acquire
environmentally -sensitive land
-Limited impacts on habitat
-Limited Nutrients
D" FLORIDA DEPARTMENT f ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY
3
m
1992 ROG 0
• Allocation percentage based on platted lands
• 255 COUNTY
• 90 KEY WEST
• 345 X TEN YEARS 3450
• 6810 UNITS
• Layton, Key Colony not included
DEJFLORIDA. DEPARTMENT fi ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY
Misconceptions
• Myth: Model is worst case scenario
— Fact: Model assumes 17,484 dwelling units are
vacant
— 2010 Census indicates there are 20,135 dwelling
units that are vacant
• Occupancy trends indicate decline of 14 percent
over 20 years
— Model assumes all tourists and mobile homes
evacuated before the evacuation of permanent
population
• Model and policy assumes mobile home
occupants have evacuated contrary to
behavioral data
D" FLORIDA DEPARTMENT f ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY
5
Building Permit Allocations
Monroe County 197
Key West 90
Marathon 30
Islamorada 28
Layton 6
Key Colony Beach 10*
■ Competitive point system
■ Guides development toward scarified areas with sewer, paved
roads, potable water, electricity, scarified/lack of vegetation
■ Limits to number of permits issued annually in hardwood
hammock
DEJFLORIDA. DEPARTMENT fi ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY
BAS I C FACTS
• Number of evacuating vehicles
• Occupancy rate of site -built units
• Flow rate set by FDOT (how many cars can be
processed / how many lanes)
Focus
• Storm characteristics are part of model
• Storm characteristics affect behavioral
characteristics
D" FLORIDA DEPARTMENT f ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY
R
Why a 24-hour evacuation
standard?
FVI ecasti ng �apabiiity
—Hurricane warning issued 24
hours prior to landfall
• Tropical force winds occur 8-12
hours prior to landfall
• Forecasting capability
DEE�) FLORIDA DEPARTMENT f ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY
An Evacuating History...
2001— Miller Consulting, Inc. and
Florida Department of
Transportation (FDOT) conducted
the "Florida Keys Hurricane
Evacuation Study"
— Based upon 1990 Census data
— Clearance Time — 25 hours and 32
minutes
D" FLORIDA DEPARTMENT f ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY
7
An Evacuating History...
• 2001 Miller Model's
Recommendations
— Coning/Additional lane(s) on
US 1 at a variety of locations
— Redesign of intersection of
Card Sound Road and County
•1.• •1
— FDOT 5-YEAR PLAN
DEE�) FLORIDA DEPARTMENT f ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY
Flow Rate Improvement
• Clearance time improves by only one hour by
adding one additional outbound lane in
Islamorada (MM. 85-90), Key Largo and Florida
City.
— Road widening — environmental, community
character
—Transportation Management —reverse
laning/temporary lanes require significant set
up time (6-10 hours)
— !8 Mile stretch law suit
D" FLORIDA DEPARTMENT f ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY
E?
An Evacuating History...
• 2003 Miller Model Update
— Using the same parameters of 2001 Miller Model,
clearance time is approximately 24 hours
— Phased evacuation
DEE�) FLORIDA DEPARTMENT f ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY
An Evacuating History...
• 2005
— Scenarios from this model had clearance times
ranging from 18 — 35 hours
• Local Governments in Florida Keys* adopt
phased evacuation approach
*Except for the City of Key West
D" FLORIDA DEPARTMENT f ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY
r
Phased Evacuation
Mobile Home
Residents Ordered Predicted Tropical
Tourists Ordered to to Evacuate Site -built Home Storm Force Winds
Evacuate Residents Ordered to
Evacuate
48 42 36 30 24 18 12 6 0
7am 1pm 7pm lam 7am 1pm 7pm lam 7am
DE,j FLORI DA DEPARTM ENT,f ECONOMIC OPPORTUNMY
An Evacuating History...
• 2009 — Florida Keys Hurricane Evacuation
Technical Focus Group convenes
— Discusses static versus
Dynamic models;
Roadway links and
sustainable capacity;
utilization of the DEM or
Miller Model
DESFLORIDA DEPARTMENT•f ECONOMIC OPPORTUNRY
10
An Evacuating History...
• 2010 — present — Statewide Regional Evacuation Study
Program and the Transportation Interface for Modeling
Evacuations (TIME) Model
— New uniform statewide model for hurricane evacuation
— Has been "adjusted" to conform to the unique constraints
and factors regarding evacuation in Florida Keys
• Shift from Miller Model to TIME Model
— Be more uniform with state
— Best available data and technology for hurricane modeling
DEE�) FLORIDA DEPARTMENT f ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY
Current Clearance Times
• From DEM TIME Model scenarios
— For phased evacuation:
• Tourists and mobiles homes —17 hours
• 70% participation for permanent population — 22 hours
and 30 minutes
• 100 % participation for permanent population — 31
hours
D" FLORIDA DEPARTMENT f ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY
11
Rep latory Takings
• Deprive the owner of all economically beneficial
use of land
• Build Out Analysis
• Vacant lots increase local government
exposure to liability claims for taking of land
FLORIDA. DEPARTMENT fi ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY
13
Vacant Land Analysis
0.81% 0.74%
/ 0.11% Islamoracla (1,109 parcels)
Key Colony Beach (92 parcels)
1 o
Key West (84 parcels)
Layton (13 parcels)
77.25 o Marathon (1,281 parcels)
Monroe (8,758 parcels)
DE,4j FLORIDA DEPARTMENT ,f ECONOMIC OPPORTUNMY
Thank you... Questions?
DESFLORIDA DEPARTMENT•f ECONOMIC OPPORTUNrrY
14
Naffonal Hvr6
Forecast- Ac
fast
NHC Forecast Verification
* NHC verifies all its official tropical cyclone track
and intensity forecasts each year.
Why do a forecast verification?
* We have to (Government Performance and
Results Act [GPRA]). Monitor performance and
progress.
* Understanding forecast errors help forecasters
(and modelers) to reduce them.
* Identify critical issues for the research community.
* Basis for the development of certain products
(e.g., the wind speed probabilities, storm surge
probabilities).
* Helps decision makers use NHC products more
effectively.
N HC Forecast Verification
* System must be a tropical or subtropical cyclone
at both forecast initial time and verification time.
J f.JCl..l.dl l 1.1 I.IVIJVIICJ Igl llult=u �uiiyii iui uuviSoiy iS
verified.
Definitions:
* Track error is the great -circle distance between the
forecast location and the actual location of the
storm center (n mi).
* Intensity error is the difference between the
forecast and actual intensity (kt).
* Forecast SKILL is computed by comparing forecast
error to the error from a Climatology -Persistence
model (CLIPER, Decay-SHIFOR).
Track Error Definition
3o-0
250
2zoo
s
0 150
w
x
F 100
50
0
N H C official Forecasts
2014 - Atlantic Basin
:r
0
t
w
0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 86 108 121
Forecast Period lhl
NHC Official Five -Year (2006-10)
Mean Errors - Atlantic Basin
300 1 1 30
Trac k error$ increase by about 45 n mi per day.
5-d yerrors are approaching 20C n mi.
250 25
Inte sity e ors increase uickly t first, ut the
lev off. j 216
E 2002o Y
Intensity 15
° 150 13 174 15 LU
n!
1
133 c
F 100 10 c
7 �o
50 i:�0 5
-� '3 Track
}�1
0 0
0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
Forecast Period [h]
3
48-h Track Errors - Model Guidance
Atlantic Basin Tropical Storms and Hurricanes
700 Non -homogeneous Sample
■ A67
■ A7 2
R AME
500
HORN
A SBAR
A VSM?
400
A WAR
A BAMw
LLI•
QLm
1 300
■ ■
UFM
Ik•N-
4,
0 200
LL I
■A
ff
GFSO
101)
GUW
0 F-
0
1570
1975 1980 7985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Year
U1
0
U.
NHC Official Track Error Trend
Atlantic Basin
24 h
350
300 120 h
260
201y
. ..... .........
ISD .......
100� . ..... ............... ....... ......
..... ... .... .. ..... ........
50 -
Errors have been cut in half over the past 15 years.
Year
IA
MA
T
N
PA
MO
WV4W
11110�
VA
KV
35
TN
2 PM Thu
5 AL
�A
ermuda
LA
LL
PM W
"'
25N
P
Sat
.r
ar9m� i
r�.
uba
d 2 P Sun
'$
d
20N
0 W 6 W 60W 5 W
Hurricane Isabel Current Information: Forecast Positions:
Snnnday September 13,2003 Center Location 22.6 N 62.6 W 0 Tropical Cyclone Q Post -Tropical
5PMEDTAd—.,y31 Max Sustained Wind 160 mph Sustained Winds: D <39 mph
NWS TPCINational Hurricane Center Movement WNW at 12 mph S 39-73 mph H 74-110 mph M , 110mph
PoAt."tj@l Track Area: Watches: Warnings:
Day 1-3 Q Day 4-5 _ Hurricane Trop.Storm _ Hurricane _ Trop.Storm
NHC Forecast Cone
* Represents the probable
track of the center of the
tropical cyclone.
Formed by connecting
circles centered on each
forecast point (at 12, 24,
36 h, etc.)
Size of the circles
determined so that, say,
the actual storm position
at 48 h will be within the
48-h circle 67% of the time.
NHC Forecast Cone
* Represents the probable '
track of the center of the
tropical cyclone.
Formed by connecting
circles centered on each
forecast point (at 12, 24,
36 h, etc.)
Size of the circles
determined so that, say,
the actual storm position
at 48 h will be within the '
48-h circle 67% of the time.
NHG Official Five -Year (2006-10)
Mean Errors - Atlantic Basin
300 1 1 30
Trac k error$ increase by about 45 n mi per day.
5-d yerrors are approaching 20C n mi.
250
Inte sity 25
e ors increase uickly t first, ut the
lev off. j 215
E 2002o Y
Intensity 15
° 150 174 15 LU
W 73
133 c
r 100 1 10 c
7 �o
50 is 70 5
-� '3 Track
V1
0 0
0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
Forecast Period [h]
10
NHC Official Intensity Error Trend
Atlantic Basin
30 1
-a 1, o p ogTss ith inte sity.
26
A
�120h
15..._.......................•---------------- ---
V
W
LL 14 ........ ,
7
O N M a b �D n 00 00 O N M a N IG I� W W O
a m oa m w m m m m m❑ o 0 0 0❑❑ a❑ a
w w w m m m w w m m o❑❑❑ o❑❑ a❑❑ o
120
100
2❑
Year
NHC Official Intensity Forecasts
2006-10 Atlantic Basin
'S' `Y •Y Y Y `-f - � n M V u� m n w ar Y,
Forecast Error(kt)
11
12
Summary
Atlantic basin track errors increase at a rate of 45
n mi per day of forecast. Forecasts have been
steadily getting better over the past two
decades (and longer). Track errors have been
cut in have over the past 15 years, and are likely
to continue to decrease.
NHC uncertainty cone is made up of circles that
enclose the actual storm position about two-
thirds of the time.
Actual errors aren't quite circular about the
forecast point. Along -track (timing) errors tend
to be larger than the cross -track (directional)
errors, especially along the U.S. east coast.
Summary
* Near the coast during the watch/warning phase,
official forecasts biases are generally small
through 72 h
Significant rightward (northward) bias on days 4-
5, however.
Intensity errors 24-48 h in advance will regularly
be in error by one Saffir-Simpson category.
Intensity errors begin to level off around 72 h.
There has been no appreciable change in
intensity forecast error over the past two
decades.
There are some promising new models and
approaches (HFIP) that we hope will improve
intensity forecasts over the next 5 years.
Barbara Powell — Planning Analyst
Area of Critical State Concern Program
Behavioral Studies/Analysis
- Residents —telephone surveys (included site -
built and mobile homes)
- Tourists — behavior in evacuations from
previous studies
1
Use of Survey Findings
• Intended responses
• Responses in past threats
• Responses in past threats in other locations
• Factors usually correlated with actual
response
DEE�) FLORIDA DEPARTMENT f ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY
Key Findings
• Evacuees do not leave at the same time
• 15-20% of any type of housing leave before an
evacuation order
• People prefer not to evacuate at night but will
do so if necessary. Examples are Eloise, Elena,
and Opal
• The most significant factor affecting response
is the urgency of the evacuation order
D" FLORIDA DEPARTMENT f ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY
2
Category 3
Category 4
Category 5
Site -built Mobile
Site -built Mobile
Site -built Mobile
Upper Keys
70 85
80 90
90 95
Middle Keys
75 85
85 90
90 95
Lower Keys;
70 85
80 90
90 95
Key West
70 85
80 90
90 95
m ir: ,
�) FLORIDA DEPARTMENT f ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY
Number of Vehicles per evacuating
households
Site -built Mobile
Upper Keys 1.30 1.13
Lower Keys 1.47 1.30
Key West 1.09 096
D" FLORIDA DEPARTMENT f ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY
3
Vehicle Usage Rates
Category 3
Category 4
Category 5
Site -built Mobile
Site -built Mobile
Site -built Mobile
Upper Keys
75 80
75 80
75 80
Middle Keys
75 80
75 80
75 80
Lower Keys
75 80
75 80
75 80
Key West
80 85
80 85
80 85
m ir: ,
�) FLORIDA DEPARTMENT f ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY
Public Shelter Use Rates
Category 3
Category 4
Category 5
Site -built Mobile
Site -built Mobile
Site -built Mobile
Upper Keys
2 5
2 10
2 10
Middle Keys
2 5
2 10
2 10
Lower Keys
2 5
5 10
5 10
Key West
2 5
5 10
5 10
D" FLORIDA DEPARTMENT f ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY
al
Hotel/Motel
• Hotel/Motel include all establishments
registered with Florida Department of
Business and Professional Regulation and
rented for a period of 28 days or fewer
• The term is interchangeable with transient
DEE�) FLORIDA DEPARTMENT f ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY
Behavioral Information
• Hotel/Motel
— 93% would evacuate the first day
— 30% would close within 12 hours of the
evacuation order
— 66% would close within 24 hours of the
evacuation order
— 18% would not close until landfall
— 3% would not close
D" FLORIDA DEPARTMENT f ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY
5
Questions from the Committee?
'FLOR:IDA DEPARTMENT f ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY
I
Hurricane evacuation modeling considers, among other things:
• The number of people who evacuate by some method other than a vehicle on the roads
• The number of people and vehicles evacuating by road
• The roadway network
The number of people and vehicles evacuating by road is derived from
• The total number of people and vehicles in the area modeled
• The number of people and vehicles that actually participate in the evacuation (behavioral
dimension)
Today I will discuss the way we determine the total number of people and vehicles that are in
the areas that may participate in an evacuation. We typically divide the analysis into three
groups:
• Evacuees originating in hotel/motel units (tourists, non-residents)
• Residents in site -built homes
• Residents in mobile homes
Each of these three components is derived by estimating
• The total number of dwelling units (or hotel/motel rooms)
• The number of dwelling units that are occupied
• The number of people in occupied dwelling units
• The number of vehicles present in occupied dwelling units
• The percentage of vehicles that will be used in an evacuation
Where people are located within the county when they initiate an evacuation, and where they
decide to go, are important in determining the amount of time it takes them to get to safety. As
a result, evacuation modeling typically divides the county into evacuation zones, which are tied
to specific entry points onto the roadway network. The Statewide Regional Evacuation Study
model for Monroe County is built upon 40 Traffic Evacuation Zones (TEZs). Basic data for the
model is collected at the census block group level and then aggregated into the 40 TEZs.
Census data is used to estimate many of the factors listed above, including
• The total number of site -built and mobile homes
• The number of occupied site -built and mobile homes
• The number of people in occupied site -built and mobile homes
• The number of vehicles in occupied site -built and mobile homes
Census data is derived from two distinct, but related, sources:
• The 2010 Census - housing unit and population counts (short form, 100%), published for
census blocks
• The 2006-10 American Community Survey (ACS) - characteristics of the housing stock and
the population based on a sample (3,147 housing units and 4,619 people over the 5-year
period), published for areas as small as census block groups
Prepared by the South Florida Regional Planning Council Page 1
Monroe County - Derivation of inputs for evacuation modeling for 2010
Variable
Source
Value
(1) Total Housing Units
2010 Census
52,764
(2) Total Occupied Housing Units (OHU)
2010 Census
32,629
(3) % Occupied Housing Units
2010 Census
61.84%
(4) Total People in Occupied Housing Units
2010 Census
73,090
(5) Persons per Household (OHU)
2010 Census
224
(6) % of Total Housing Units that are Mobile Homes
2006-10 ACS
15.32%
(7) % of Occupied Housing Units that are Mobile Homes
2006-10 ACS
14.41%
(8) % of Residents that are in Mobile Homes
2006-10 ACS
13.02%
(9) Vehicles per Occupied Housing Unit
2006-10 ACS
1.40
(10) Total Site -Built Homes = (1)-(11)
SRESP
44,631
(11) Total Mobile Homes = (1)*(6)
SRESP
8,133
(12) Occupied Site -Built Homes = (2)-(13)
SRESP
27,996
(13) Occupied Mobile Homes = (2)*(7)
SRESP
4,633
(14) Residents in Occupied Site -Built Homes = (4)-(15)
SRESP
63,538
(15) Residents in Occupied Mobile Homes = (4)*(8)
SRESP
9,552
(16) Vehicles in Occupied Site -Built Homes = (12)*(9)
SRESP
39,476
(17) Vehicles in Occupied Mobile Homes = (13)*(9)
SRESP
6,627
The table shows the data for Monroe County as a whole, derived from the sums of the data
calculated for each census block group. This approach ensures that the allocation of evacuees to
different segments of the roadways in the Florida Keys will be accurate.
Prepared by the South Florida Regional Planning Council Page 2
Hurricane Evacuation Work Group
January 30, 2012
Florida
Area f Critical StateConcern
�, Area of Critical State Concern (ACSC)
Permit Allocation System developed to distribute the
Future Growth Capacity within the Florida Keys ACSC
Based on:
hurricane evacuation,
public safety, and
environmental needs including water quality and habitat
protection
1
Hurrkane Evacuation Modeling.*
1989: PBS&J, retained by ALOE, to perform a transportation
analysis of evacuation travel movements and clearance times. The
analysis was released in 1991.
Lower Southeast Florida Hurricane Evacuation Studv
1990 Census baseline for the model
2000: FDOT contracts with Miller Consulting, Inc., to develop an
evacuation model that measures and analyzes the unique
characteristics of the Florida Keys
Miller Report completed in 2001
1990 Census data + number of certificates of occupancy issued through
1999, after 1999 add max number of ROGO allocations
2004: 2000 Census info is incorporated in the Miller model by DCA
2005: DCA contracts with the SFRPC to develop regional hurricane
evacuation study (Broward, Miami -Dade and Monroe Counties)
South Florida Regional Hurricane Evacuation Traffic Study Technical Support
bift'Document is finalized in 2006
2009-2010: Monroe County contracts with University of Utah
(Reid Ewing, Ph.D.) to update the Miller model for phased
evacuations, update the model based on 2000 Census data,
recent building permit data, the best available tourist data, etc.
2010: Statewide Regional Evacuation Study Program (SRESP) by
the Florida Division of Emergency Management and Regional
Planning Councils and Wilbur Smith Associates is released.
Data were developed for three analysis years: 2006, 2010, and
2015.
All data are based off of mid -census estimates and future year
projections based off of Census 2000 data.
Census 2010 data were not available at the time that the
evacuation model was developed.
2
Hurricane 19vacuatJon Model Inputs
Number of People per Unit
PBS&J Hurricane
2000 Miller Model
2006 South Florida
SRF$P 1 Race $renarinc
SRESP I Operational
Evacuation Analysis
(1990 Census &
2004 Miller
Regional Hurricane
Scenarios
Dec.1991 (1990
PSC)
Update
Evacuation Traffic
Census)
Final Report in
(20 0 Census)
Study(SFRPC)
2010
2015
2010
2015
2001
7evaczones
7evaczones
7evaczones
5evaczonesl
5evac'zones
5evaczones
5waczones
I 5evaczenes
Zone 1 - 2.44
Zone 1 - 2.44
Zone 1 - 2.44
2 - 2.31
2 - 2.31
2 - 2.31
Aggregated for 98 census
Aggregated for 98 census
3-2.25
3-2.25
3-2.25
Zone 1=2.62
block groups
block groups
Number of
4-1.97
4-1.97
4-1.97
Zone 2=1.95
Zone 1=2.41
Zone 1=2.41
People per
5-2.27
5-2.27
5-2.27
Zone 3=1.98
Zone 2=2.02
Zone 2=2.02
M.H. Unit
6-2.27
6-2.27
6-2.27
Zone 4=2.02
Zone 3=2.03
Zone 3=2.03
7-2.11
7-2.11
7-2.11
Zone 5=2.03
Zone 4=1.99
Zone 4=1.99
Zone 5=2.00
Zone 5=2.00
Zone 1 - 2.44
Zone 1 - 2.44
Zone 1 - 2.44
2 - 2.31
2 - 2.31
2 - 2.31
Aggregated for 98 census
Aggregated for 98 census
Number of
3-2.25
3-2.25
3-2.25
Zone 1=2.24
block groups
block groups
People per
4-1.97
4-1.97
4-1.97
Zone 2=2.31
Zone 1=2.27
Zone 1=2.27
Permanent
5-2.27
5-2.27
5-2.27
Zone 3=2.22
Zone 2=2.32
Zone 2=2.32
Unit
6-2.27
6-2.27
6-2.27
Zone 4=2.25
Zone 3=2.22
Zone 3=2.22
7-2.11
7-2.11
7-2.11
Zone 5=1.85
Zone 4=2.29
Zone 4=2.29
Zone 5 = 1.81
Zone 5 = 1.81
Hurricane Evacuation Model Inputs
Number of Vehicles per Unit
PBS&ti Hurricane
2000 Miller Model
South Florida
SRESP 1 Base Scenarios
SRESP I Operational
Evacuation Analysis
( 1990 Census &
2004 Miller
RegionalHurricane
Regional
Scenarios
pSC
Update
DecCens s)
Census)
Final Report in
(2000 Census)
Evacuation Traffic
Study(SFRPC)
2010
2015
2010
2015
2001
7evaczones
7evac zones
7one zones
5evaczones
Sevaczones
5evac zones
5evac zones
Sevac zones
Zone 1 - 1.80
1 -1.35
1 -1.36
Aggregated for 98 census block groups
Number of
2-1.80
3-1.82
2-1.76
3-1.39
2-1.74
3-1.56
Zone 1=1.34
Vehicles per
4-2.00
4-1.65
4-1.65
Zone 2 = 1.73
Zone 1 = 1.33 Zone 1 = 1.33
Occupied
5-2.00
5-1.76
5-1.71
Zone 3=1.56
Zone 2=1.74 Zone 2=1.74
Permanent Unit
6 - 2.00
6-1.61
6-1.83
Zone 4 = 1.
Zone 3 = 1.Zone 3 = 1.58
7-2.00
Zone5=1.69 69
Zone4=1.79 79 Zone 4=1.7979
7-1.58
7-1.43
Zone 5 = 1.51 Zone 5 = 1.51
Zone 1 - 1.80
1 -1.35
1 -1.36
2-1.80
2 -1.76
2- 1.74
Aggregated for 98 census block groups
Number of
3-1.82
3-1.39
3-1.56
Zone 1 = 1.34
Vehicles per
4-2.00
4-1.65
4-1.65
Zone 2 = 1.73
Zone 1 = 1.34 Zone 1 = 1.34
Occupied
5-2.00
5-1.76
5-1.71
Zone 3 = 1.56
Zone 2 = 1.68 Zone 2 = 1.68
Mobile Home
6-2.00
Zone 4 = 1.74
Zone 3 = 1.49 Zone 3 = 1.49
Unit
7-200
6-161
6-183..
Zone 5=1.69
Zone 4=1.65 Zone 4=1.65
7-1.58
7-1.43
Zone 5=1.50 Zone 5=1.50
Zone 1-1.04
1-1.04
1-1.04
2-1.04
2-1.04
2-1.04
Zone 1=1.10
Number of
3-1.05
3-1.05
3-1.05
Zone 2=1.10
Vehicles per
4-1.10
4-1.10
4-1.10
Zone 3 = 1.10
1.10 for all 98 census block groups
Tourist Unit
5-1.10
5-1.10
5-1.10
Zone 4=1.10
6-1.10
6-1.10
6-1.10
Zone 5=1.10
7-1.10
7-1.10
7-1.10
1
�, Vehicle Usage
PBHurricane
2000 Miller Model
2006 South Florida
SRESP 1 Base Scenarios
SRESP I Operational
Evacuation
Eva
( 1990 Census &
2004 Miller
Regional Hurricane
Scenarios
Analysis Dec. 1991
PSC
Update
Evacuation Traffic
(1990 Census)
Final Report in
(2000 Census)
Study(SFRPC)
2001
2010
2015
2010
2015
7zuaczones
7evaczones
7evaczones
5evaczones
5evaczones
5evaczones
5evaczones
5evaczones.
Zone 1-69%
Zone 1-69%
Zone 1-69%
i_:m.o,Sfi�oi-'" t 9".,..
2-69%
2-69%
2-69%
80% vehicle usage
(see Volume 2-11 Behavioral Analysis)
3-70%
3-70%
3-70%
of permanent
For example:
Vehicle Usage
4-71%
4-71%
4-71%
occupied units,
Site -Built homes - Cat 3
Mobile homes - Cat 3
5-71%
5-71%
5-71%
including mobile
6-71%
6-71%
6-71%
homes
Upper Keys-75%
Upper Keys-80%
7-71%
7-71%
7-71%
(page13)
Middle Keys —75%
Middle Keys —80%
Lower Keys-75%
Lower Keys-80%
Key West-80%
Key West —85%
fi&f 1.A lbk w.I i,hS
Tourist Vehicle
100%
100%
100%
(i.e., the estimated number of vehicles reflects the use of
Usage %
other means of transportation that tourists use to come
and go from the Florida Keys)
Hurricane Evacuation Model Inputs
Participation
PBS&J
2000 Miller
2006 South
SRESP 1 Base Scenarios
SRESP I Operational Scenarios
Hurricane
Model (1990
2004 Miller
Florida Regional
Evacuation
Census & PSC)
Update
Hurricane
Analysis Dec.
Final Report in
(2000 Census)
Evacuation Traffic
2010
2015
2010
2015
1991
2001
Study (SFRPC)
Censsusus))
7evaczones
t7evaczenes
7evaczones
5evaczones
5evaczones
5evaczones
5evaczones
5evaczones
Level A=65%
Level A=65%
Level B = 75%
Level B 75%
Participation
Panic patioUnits
95%
95%
95%
100%
100%
100%
I r5 ,
D= .eI r"
of M.H.LevelD
90%
LevelD = 90%
Level E=95%
Level E=95%
Zone 1 -60%
Zone 1 -60%
62%participation
60 %lower keys
2-60%
2-60%rate
of permanent
(1&2)
3-80%
3-80%
occupied units for
LevelA=35-40%
LevelA=35-40%
Participation
80%middle keys
4- 85%
4- 85%
categories 1-2;
Level B = 40-50 %
Level B40 50
of Other Units
(3)
5-85%
5-85%
100% participation
100%
100%
; I 'i
D,.;'I ;
85 %upper keys
6-85%
6-85%
rate of permanent
Level 80%
Level 80%
(47)
7 - 85%
7 - 85%
occupied units for
Level E = 90 %
Level E = 90
categories 3-5
100%
100%
100%
100%
Participation
(1" phase for
(1" phase for
(1" phase for a
(1" phase for a
y Tourists Units
95%
100%
100%
100%
a Level C
a Level C
Level C storm or
Level C storm or
at Risk
storm or
storm or
higher)
higher)
higher)
h
higher)
Hurricane E-vacuation Model Inputs
Occupancy Rates
PBS&J
Hurricane
2000Miller
2006South
SRESPIOperational
Evacuation
Model (1990
Florida Regional
SRESPIBaseScenarios
Scenarios
Analysis
Census & PSC)
20(2 Miller Update
Hurricane
Dec. 1991
Final Report in
000 Census)
Evacuation Traffic
(1990
2001
Study(SFRPC)
Census)
2010
2015
2010
2015
7—zones
7—zones
'.. 7—zones'.
5evaczones
'..5 evac zones
5—zones
5—zones
5evaczones
Aggregated for 98 census
block groups
Zone 1-86%
Zone 1-84.10%
%Occupancy
2-71%
2-66.85%
Zone 1=84.1%
Zone 1=83.8%
Zone 1=83.9%
Zone 1 = 83.8%
Zone 1 = 83.9%
of Permanent
3-69%
3-58.95%
Zone 2 = 72.1 %
Zone 2 = 72.1 %
Zone 2 = 72.1 %
Zone 2 = 72.1%Zone
2 = 72.1
Dwelling Units
4-57%
4-45.43%
Zone 3=60.9%
Zone 3=57.7%
Zone 3=57.8%
Zone 3 = 57.7%
Zone 3 = 57.8%
5-66%
5-57.99%
Zone 4=61.8%
Zone 4=61.4%
Zone 4=61.5%
Zone 4 = 61.4%
Zone 4 = 61.5%
F_FS^/
' ""
F_FF '27^/
"""'
Zone 5=38.5%
Zone 5=34.5%
Zone 5=34.4%
Zone 5 = 34.5%
Zone 5 = 34.4%
7-42%
7-32.84%
Zone 1 - 72%
2-64%
%Occupancy
45%low
3 64%
45 %low
of Tourist
occupancy
4- 70/
45%low
occupancy
Defaults to 85%for all 98 census block groups,
Units
75%high
5 - 70
occupancy
85%high
but can be adjusted as a scenario parameter
occupancy
6 70%
occupancy
7-70%
Estimated clearance time will vary with
the assumptions made in the model.
Model outputs are only as accurate as
the input assumptions.
5
Hurricane Evacuation Workshop Minutes
Jan 30, 2012
Mayor Pete Worthington, City of Marathon, welcomed the group and introduced the participants.
He announced that all the presentations could be viewed on the Department of Economic
Opportunity's web site at the following link:
http://www.floridai obs.or�4/community-planning-and-development/pro�4rams/areas-of-critical-
state-concern/florida-keys-hurricane-evacuation
Jeff Alexander, with the Northeast Florida Regional Planning Council, provided a report on the
Division of Emergency Management's development of the regional emergency evacuation
model's capability (Statewide Regional Evacuation Study Program Model on DEO website link)
He provided information regarding the technology used to develop the software and the origin of
the data. Mr. Alexander indicated that the evacuation modeling used a uniform statewide
approach for each county in the state and has received several awards. Additionally, he presented
new storm surge data and how hurricane storm events are being separated (wind from storm
surge) since there is no direct correlation between the height of the storm surge and the wind
intensity. The scenarios produced by DEM utilize 100% participation whereas in the past, the
Miller model used a lower participation rate.
Christine Hurley, with Monroe County Growth Management, reviewed the Administration
Commission's (Governor and Cabinet) adopted riles for the Florida Keys (e.g. Rule 28-20.140,
F.A.C.). She presented the 5 Work Program tasks related to hurricane evacuation modeling and
completing an analysis of maximum build -out capacity for the Florida Keys. The riles include
tasks to update the census data and to develop build out scenarios and reach consensus on a
Memorandum of Understanding regarding the Hurricane Evacuation Model's assumptions and
variables (Administration commission Directive and Progress on DEO website link). She
pointed out that the Administration Commission task will result in the need to amend each local
government's comprehensive plan to reflect ten years growth. The Department of Economic
Opportunity will report back to the Governor and Cabinet regarding the various hurricane
scenarios runs with a recommendation for the new allocation and distribution of growth between
the local governments.
Rebecca Jetton, with the Department of Economic Opportunity, provided the history of how the
24-hour hurricane evacuation clearance time standard evolved and the linkage to hurricane
forecasting capability (Myths and Facts on DEO website link). She discussed the potential
outcomes of the meetings and how the rate of growth will likely need to be amended to revise the
amount and distribution of new development in order to develop a ten year planning horizon and
maintain the 24-hour standard. She stated that the workshop could result in a reduction of units
per year for each local government or a new distribution of units to each local government based
1
upon the variables that are selected and after the group reviews the placement of development to
see how that affects the 24 hour evacuation time. She indicated that each local government
should carefully review the number of vacant buildable lots within their jurisdiction. She
stressed the need to reduce the liability of each local government to potential "takings" cases. If
the evacuation time is exceeded and privately owned vacant buildable lots continue to be
available, this could increase the potential liability for takings. She explained that each local
government must balance private property rights while ensuring public safety. Based upon
preliminary data, the following vacant lots exist within each local government.
Monroe 8758 Key West 84
Marathon 1281 Key Colony 92
Islamorada 1109 Layton 13
The Work Group indicated that there must have been an improvement in evacuation clearance
time based upon the loss of population and the improvements that have been made to US
Highway One. Ms. Jetton clarified that the improvements made to US 1 have not resulted in
additional capacity for hurricane evacuation. She stated that the Florida Department of
Transportation (FDOT) will provide a presentation regarding the sustainable capacity of US
Highway One at the next meeting. Ms. Jetton provided an overview of previous
recommendations made by several Work Groups in the past to improve hurricane evacuation
clearance time. She stated that attempts to widen the 18-mile stretch had resulted in a law suit.
Recommendations for creating an additional lane with the use of coning had been dismissed
because of the time required to set up the cones, the time lost when cars queue up to cross over
multiple bridges, and that certain employees would have to be designated and remain behind to
handle the cones while their families evacuated. This led to a discussion about the constriction
of shoulder enhancements to create an additional lane for evacuation purposes only and that the
Florida Department of Transportation has provided funding for the enhancements within the
FDOT 5-Year Work Plan. The group also discussed the Division of Emergency Management's
preference that the shoulder enhancement lane be used for emergency or disabled vehicles and
that in areas that were already 4 lanes, the Monroe County plan contains a policy that additional
lanes beyond four lanes cannot be counted toward capacity for hurricane evacuation. The issue
re�mrdin the shoulder enhancements will be included in the Memorandum of Understandin4
between all the local governments.
Mr. James Franklin, with the National Hurricane Center, reported on the current capability of
forecasting at the National Hurricane Center. He indicated that the Center has improved in its
ability to project where a hurricane will make landfall. The ability to predict intensity beyond 48
hours continues to be limited. Projection of landfall has improved from 24 hours to 36 hours;
however, Mr. Franklin cautioned the Work Group stating that rapid intensification of a hurricane
system is still a major issue with forecasting. He indicated that the Weather Forecasting Services
2
routinely misses intensity (off by 1 category). He said that the hurricane track error increases by
45 miles/day. Track errors include: speed (timing) and location. He gave the following
example: 48 hours in advance of storm (center of storm): Intensity is off by 15 knots and the
track is off by 90 miles. 24 hours in advance of storm (center of storm): Intensity off by 11
knots and track is off by 51 miles.
Richard Ogburn, with the South Florida Regional Planning Council, provided a review of how
the census data is obtained and the intervals for receiving the American Communities Surveys
(Census Data in the Statewide Regional Evacuation Study Program on DEO website link). He
described how the data contains three sets of cumulative sampling estimates: 1-year, 3-year and
5-year. The 5-year is considered the best since it has a larger sampling base than the 1-year and
3-year. He explained that data is collected from the US Census block group level which is the
smallest geographical unit utilized by the US Census which contains housing characteristics.
There are approximately 76 census block groups in Monroe County. These census block groups
are then aggregated into 40 Traffic Evacuation Zones. Mr. Ogburn also indicated there are
approximately 20,000 dwelling units that are classified as vacant that are considered vacant and
are not counted in the evacuation stream. Afterwards, the group discussed mechanisms that
might assist in determining if some of these units are actually occupied as vacation
rentals/second homes.
Barbara Powell, with the Department of Economic Opportunity, provided data regarding human
behavior including percentages of how and when people will evacuate (Behavioral Surveys on
DEO website link. She summarized human behavioral surveys taken by Dr. Earl Baker for the
Regional Evacuation including surveys of hotels and mobile homes. She stressed that more
people will participate in an evacuation based upon the perceived severity of the hurricane event
and the urgency and clarity of the evacuation notice. With regard to a hotel survey that was
taken by Dr. Baker, those results indicate that 93% of the tourists in hotels in the keys would
evacuate the first day. Approximately 30% of the hotels would close within 12 hours of the
evacuation order; 66% of the hotels would close within 24 hours of the evacuation order; 18% of
the hotels would not close until landfall; and 3% of the hotels would not close. Ms. Powell
indicated that the surveys show that 15-20% of any type of housing leave before the mandatory
evacuation order is liven. She stated that individuals are reluctant to leave after 8 pm. After Ms.
Powell's presentation, the group discussed adopted comprehensive plan policies that direct
mobile home owners to evacuate 36 hours prior to anticipated landfall of hurricane force winds
and how the notice for mobile home occupants would occur at 7 pm at night if the tourists were
notified to leave at 7:00 AM. The behavioral studies also indicate that mobile home occupants'
behavior is much like the behavior of individuals residing in a site built home and that it would
take longer for a mobile home occupant to respond than it would for a tourist to respond and
evacuate. The group discussed running scenarios with some portion of the mobile home units
added in to the site built evacuation. The group discussed the need to educate the public so that
3
mobile home occupants will evacuate with the tourists because mobile homes are considered
more vulnerable to damage. Mayor Worthington requested that staff compare the evacuating
cars counted by FDOT for the links and compare that number to the sustained capacity report
developed by FDOT.
Mayte Santamaria, with Monroe County Planning & Environmental Resources, gave an
overview of the various models that have been utilized and the variables of each model (History
of Modeling in Keys and Parameters utilized on DEO website link). She stated that the original
Rate of Growth Ordinance (ROGO) allocation was based on the ability to achieve a 30-hour
evacuation with the long term goal of achieving a 24 hour evacuation. At the time of adoption of
the Monroe County Comprehensive Plan, 35 hours was adopted as the existing clearance time.
When the Monroe County Comprehensive plan was challenged and finally resolved, the Final
Order found that the maximum acceptable clearance time should be 24 hours because of the
National Weather Service's ability to forecast storms, forecast errors, and a lack of shelters.
Mayte provided a brief summary of the models utilized in the Keys, including the PBS&J model,
Miller model, SFRPC model, and the new Division of Emergency Management TIME model).
She discussed the Miller Model, explaining the model is a spreadsheet -based program executed
in Microsoft Excel. The model is comprised of 39 Excel spreadsheets, 31 of which relate to
individual roadway segments. The 31 roadway segments are defined by roadway cross-section,
capacity, and mile markers. She stated the Division of Emergency Management has developed a
program called TL\IE/CUBE which has dynamic traffic assignment capabilities. This model is
developed in Cube with a custom built GIS based graphic user interface. The Florida Keys Area
of Critical State Concern Program now utilizes the model prepared by the Division of
Emergency Management. Ms. Santamaria explained that the PBS&J model and the Miller
model used a 45% occupancy rate for hotel occupancy. The TIME model currently utilizes an
85% occupancy rate for hotel units for the Phase 1-Day 1 evacuation. Dick Ogburn stated the
85% occupancy rate for hotels represents a worst case scenario for tourist units. The group
discussed completing some model nuns using the Smith Travel data that contains current hotel
occupancy for the upper, lower, middle keys and Key West. Mayte Santamaria gave an
overview of the other variables that have been used in previous evacuation models including the
PBS&J and Miller models. (The TIME model scenarios published by the Division of Emergency
Management assume that all tourists and mobile homes have evacuated before the permanent
evacuation is initiated. It has been reported by DEO staff that Phase 1-Day 1 evacuation of
mobile home and tourist units can be accomplished in 17 hours).
There was discussion regarding the fact that it takes special needs individuals up to 30 hours to
evacuate for a hurricane storm event. The Special Needs population is notified to leave 48 hours
prior to landfall of hurricane force winds. John Hammerstrom expressed concerns regarding
safety and stated that with the current configuration of the model (Day 1 and Day 2) that it gives
the impression that additional tourist units can be added because they do not affect the Day 2
Phase (site -built units). Rebecca Jetton pointed out that while it appears that there is a buffer
:l
between Day 1 and Day 2, the model processes cars until midnight and this is inconsistent with
the behavioral surveys that show that people do not like to evacuate after 8 PM. There was
group discussion regarding the number of vehicles per unit data; the tourist occupancy rate; the
tourist population calculated in the model; storm surge and storm wind categories; and various
scenarios.
Don Craig questioned how the Naval Air Station -Key West orders military personnel to evacuate
and when the families of military personnel leave in reference to the TIME model and indicated
that additional information is needed. The following information is found in the Human
Behavior Studies completed by Dr. Baker for the Department of Community Affairs.
Evacuation of Military Installations
At the suggestion of Monroe County Emergency Management, a representative of
Key West Naval Air Station was interviewed with respect to the installation's
evacuation procedures. Although there are other military installations in the
Keys, the Naval Air Station is the largest, and procedures followed by others were
thought to he similar. Jim Brooks, the Public Information Officer, was
interviewed.
There are 1,676 uniformed military personnel in the Keys, including all
installations, with 1,015 family members. There is up to 459 military training
personnel in addition who would be f own out in an evacuation. Other personnel
and their families would drive their own vehicles in and evacuation. Up to 100
would remain on base. Civilians assigned to the base number 848. No one would
evacuate prior to an evacuation order being issued by the County. (The exception
presumably would he personnel removing equipment) Salary and expenses would
he paid during a mandatory evacuation and NAS reserves hotel rooms in Orlando
for personnel and dependents. Mr. Brooks estimated that 90% of personnel and
families would leave within 6 hours of the evacuation order and 98% would he
gone within 12 hours. His general impression was that vehicle ownership would
he comparable to the general population. It is possible that a larger percentage of
available vehicles would he taken in an evacuation because certain personnel
would he required to return to the base within 24 hours of passage of a hurricane.
The following is a list of actions that the group requested.
Action Items:
Contact Florida Keys Electric Cooperative to request any studies that would indicate the number
of vacant units through reduced electric consumption.
Contact Florida Keys Aqueduct Authority to request any studies that would indicate the number
of vacant units through reduced water consumption.
5
Contact Division of Motor Vehicles to establish the number of licensed vehicles in Monroe
County. Compare to number of cars that are being counted in model to validate the number.
Contact Naval Air Station -Key West to ascertain what type of evacuation policies are being
utilized for military personnel and for military dependants.
Post presentations and other pertinent documents from the first workshop to website.
Determine if any schools meet hurricane shelter requirements (this is being done by the County,
coordinating with DEM)
Mail out draft Memorandum of Understanding.
Report on the percent (and/or number) of units that are second homes. Determine the number of
rented occupied homes from US Census. Reduce the number of non -homesteaded units by this
number to find a rough estimate.
The Working Group discussed problems with citizens gaining entry after a storm event and that
an effort be made to shorten the time involved in re-entering the county. Some members thought
that the delays encountered in re-entry resulted in a decrease in the participation level. The
group discussed the low percentage of citizens who go to a hurricane shelter during an
evacuation. The Emergency Management Director was requested to contact Dave Halstead at
Division of Emergency Management (DEM) to discuss the potential for funding or retro-fitting a
building as an evacuation shelter in Key Largo or in Dade County. The DEM has available 3
million per year for this purpose
Evacuation Scenario Requests:
Commissioner Murphy & John Hammerstrom requested a worst case scenario model run.
Day 1- including tourist, mobile and site -built units.
Christine Hurley requested a model run including vacant, private, non -habitat lots for all
jurisdictions within the site -built (Day 2) run
The group discussed completing a model run with 10 years of growth at the current allocation.
Rebecca Jetton and George Garret made a request for a model rim with mobile units added to
site -built units.
Participation rates: Add the vacant dwelling units from Phase 2-Day 2 to the Phase 1-Day 1
mobile home and hotel evacuation stream. The hotels participate at 85% occupancy. The
dwelling units would be considered 100% occupied and another run with 70% occupied.
Occupancy rates for hotels: Use the Smith Travel results which break out the occupancy into
different percentages for upper, lower, middle keys and Key West.
L"
Dwelling units: Revise the number of dwelling units to reflect the 2010 census numbers.
Road map Segment: Eliminate segments of North Roosevelt in Key West for two years that
will be closed.
February 27, 2012
Hurricane Evacuation Clearance Time
Work Group Meeting
Rick Scott
GOVERNOR
FLORIDADEPARTMENTaf
ECONOMICOPPORTUNrTY
Cynthia R. Lorenzo
INTERIM EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR
Hurricane Evacuation Work Group Agenda — Meeting 2
February 27, 2012
10:00 am — 4:00 pm
Harvey Government Center
1200 Truman Avenue
Key West, Florida 33040
10:00 -10:15 am
Welcome & Opening Remarks
Teri Johnston
10:15 — 10:30 am
Military Evacuation Procedures
Steve McBride
William Knetge
10:30 -11:45 am
Discussion of Working Group Questions
Barbara Powell
11:45 am-1:15 pm
Lunch on your own
1:15 - 2:00 pm
Road Capacity and Shoulder Enhancements
Aileen Bouchle
/TBA
2:00 — 2:45 pm
Private Property Rights & Takings cases
Bob Shillinger
2:45 - 3:00 pm
Memorandum of Understanding
Rebecca Jetton
3:00 - 3:15 pm
Break
3:15 - 3:30 pm
Building Consensus Exercise
Barbara Powell
3:45 - 4:00 pm
Working Group & Special Interest Group Input
• If time allows, we will review scenarios.
The Caldwell Building 107 E. Madison Street Tallahassee, Florida 32399-4120 850.245.7105 850.921.3223 Fax
wNmN.FloridaTobs.ora mN� N.t�Nitter.coni FLDEO �N�N�N.facebool .eorn FLDEO
An equal opportunity eniplo.% er'prograni. Auxiliary aids and services are available upon request to individuals with disabilities. All voice
telephone numbers on this document nia% be reached b% persons using TTY TDD equipment via the Florida Relay Service at 711. '7
3/2/2012
Brian Wolshon, Ph. D., P.E., PTOE
• Professor of Civil Engineering Louisiana State University
• Founded and chair the Transportation Research Board of
the National Academies' Task Force on Emergency
Evacuation
• Founded and serve as the Director of the USDOT sponsored
Center for Evacuation and Transportation Resiliency at LSU
• Conduct research for numerous federal and state agencies
and national Laboratories, including the National Science
Foundation, United States Department of Transportation
(USDOT), United States Department of Homeland Security
(DHS), Sandia National Laboratories, etc.
Maximum Sustainable Evacuation
Traffic Flow Rates
• The anticipated highest vehicle flow rates that can
be practically sustained over an extended period
of time during an evacuation event
• Although Maximum Sustainable Evacuation
Traffic Flow Rates are similar to the "capacity" of
the road segment, they are quite different
• They vary by segment — and will also vary based
on specific conditions that exist at the time of the
event
1
3/2/2012
Why Are They Recommended?
• Research shows that flow rates recorded during
evacuations were lower than those expected from
Highway Capacity Manual calculation methods
• Evacuation traffic flows consistently peak at rates
below HCM "capacity," then flow further
decreases to a level that is sustained for 6 to 8
hours or more
• Based on this, the use of HCM-based capacity
values will yield unrealistically high rates of flow
in simulation modeling
Why Are They Recommended?
• These flow rates are also consistent with the
highest flow rates recorded during recent
evacuations of the Keys and the other peak traffic
periods
• These flow rates may further be decreased by other
inevitable congestion within the network as well as
operations at night and under adverse weather
conditions
• Use of higher than these sustainable flow rates will
also likely result in clearance times that are not
realistically achievable
VA
3/2/2012
Temporal Evacuation Demand
• Traffic counter data is consistent with findings of
behavioral research that suggests that the vast
majority of evacuees tend to travel during daylight
hours, regardless of when an evacuation order is
issued
• Typically, traffic volumes increase steadily from
6:00am to a peak in the early to mid afternoon
After a drop to a sustainable rate of flow, high travel
demand continues into the mid- to late -evening, when
volumes drop significantly around 10:00pm to 11:00pm
and remains low during the overnight hours
Joaquin Vargas, P.E.
• BSCE and MSCE (Transportation/Traffic Engineering)
• 25 Years Practicing Traffic Engineering in South Florida,
Including the Florida Keys
• Conducted Hundreds of Traffic Studies in the Florida Keys
• Expert in Hurricane Evacuation Analysis
• Developed 2001 Florida Keys Hurricane, (including the
development of the hurricane model), Co -Authored the
Development of the MSEFR, Developed Evacuation Plan for US 1
in Florida City for Florida's Turnpike One -Way Hurricane Plan
• Introduced the Speed -Based Methodology For Traffic Analysis in
the Florida Keys — Has been the traffic standard for the past two
decades in Monroe County
3
3/2/2012
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Results of Maximum Sustainable
°~• �° °�� Evacuation Traffic Flow Rates
900 to 1,200 vehicles per hour per lane
Recommended Flow Rates
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MONROE COUNTY HURRICANE EVACUATION
Li
3/2/2012
History of Roadway Improvements
• 2001 Florida Keys Hurricane Evacuation Study (Joint
Effort — Steering Committee)
- Monroe County Commission and Monroe County Staff
- Florida Division of Emergency Management
- Florida Department of Transportation
- Florida International University
- US Army Corps of Engineers
- Two Consulting Firms (Miller Consulting, Inc. & Vanasse-Hangen-Brustlin)
• 2001 Roadway Network Not Capable of Safely
Evacuating the Florida Keys
• Requires Additional Hurricane Evacuation Capacity
History of Roadway Improvements
42,300 )Vehicles Evacuating (MM 106)
Evacuating
Vehicles
N ie�
�nlf o1 Mexic�
eVehicles Evacuating (MM 8)
z,a
KeY W P
♦
�,;-♦ Blu Pine Key
J
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.r .. ® Lrl moratla
6
_w 30,450 Vehicles
Evac ting (MM 90)
Ma[aERon
ArianEic Ocsan
hicles Evacuating (MM 47)
5
3/2/2012
Five (5) Year Work Program
�inam
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AtlemlcOnan Tl =--1
2013-2017 TENTATIVE FNE YEAR WORK PROGRAM {Monroe County)
1.1
3/2/2012
Resolutions
• Monroe County BOCC Passed Resolution 475-2008
supporting a northbound shoulder width no greater
than 4 feet from MM 93 to MM106
A RESOLUTION OF THE MONROE COUNTY BOARD OF COUNTY
COMMISSIONERS REQUESTING THE FLORIDA DEPARTMENT OF
TRANSPORTATION REVISE THE FIVE YEAR WORK PROGRAM AS IT
PERTAINS TO MILLING AND RESURFACING OF US HIGHWAY 1 FROM
MILE MARKER 93 TO 106 REDUCING THE PROPOSED NORTH BOUND
SHOULDER TOTAL WIDTH TO NO MORE THAN FOUR 4 FEET OR
MATCHING THATOF THE SOUTHBOUND PROPOSAL
• City Commission of Key West Passed Resolution 08-
13 Supporting FDOT's Improvements from MM 93
to MM 106 for 10 foot shoulders
• The Department is Awaiting Results of Working
Group Regarding Shoulder Improvements in the
Upper Keys
7
Submitted Questions
Monroe County's new "Official" clearance time is expected to be based on a computer
estimate of the time it would take permanent residents to evacuate to Florida City under one of
thousands of possible scenarios. Transient (tourist) units and mobile home units are currently
not included in this "Official" clearance time. According to Monroe County Comprehensive
Plan Policy 216.1.8, those two groups are evacuated 48 hours and 36 hours prior to expected
1
landfall of tropical storm forced winds, respectively. It has been stated that under one
reasonable scenario using the SRESP model, it takes 17 hours to evacuate the tourists and
DEO
mobile homes residents. If that is so, then adding transient units and mobile homes to Keys
housing stock would not affect the "Official" clearance time until they impinge on the
evacuation of the permanent residents in site -built homes. How many transient (tourist) units
alone could be built without affecting the clearance time of the permanent residents in
site -built homes?
2
How many mobile home units alone could be built without affecting the clearance time of
the permanent residents in site -built homes?
DEO
Referring to Table ES-12 - "2015 Clearance Times for Base Scenario" (Volume 4-11, page ES-
27), would you please explain:
a) Why, for all Monroe clearance times, is the "In -County Clearance Time" 1/2 hour
greater than the equivalent "Out -of -County Clearance Time?" It is strange that a
3
greaterdistance would result in a shorter time. [Aside from that, one would expect that
NERPC/
for a Level C or greater threat, all evacuations for Monroe County are "Out -of -County"
SFRPC
and therefore the "In -County Clearance Time" section for Monroe County should be
N/A or zero.]
b) Since there are more vulnerable people and shadow evacuees for greater storm
threats, how can the Regional Clearance Time for Level D be the same as for Level C?
Operational Scenarios 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 13 (Table ES-10, Volume 4-11, p. ES-22) assume
"Miami -Dade County and Broward 24 hours after Monroe." Does this mean 24 hours after
4
Monroe starts their 48-hour evacuation, the full Miami -Dade and Broward evacuations
NERPC/
for that Level are concurrent with the Monroe County permanent population
SFRPC
evacuation? Please clarify.
From Volume 4-11, page II-7, "Two sets of curves were developed, one for coastal evacuating
counties that represent lower background traffic and one for all other counties representing
greater background traffic [my emphasis]. The model then adjusts capacities up and down
consistent with these curves as it simulates the evacuation." Figures II-2 and II-3 indicate that
5
during the daylight hours, background traffic for coastal counties is 1/2 that of other counties,
NERPC/
which means that for other than coastal counties during daylight hours, only 50 - 70% of
SFRPC
highway capacity remains for evacuation, but for coastal counties during the same hours, 80 -
90% of capacity is available for evacuation. Why is the background traffic lower for coastal
counties?
The Dynamic Traffic Assignment (Volume 4-11, page ES-4) describes two
curiouscharacteristics: The "General Model Flow" indicates that one step in the flow is to
"Adjustbackground traffic," while the other curious statement is, `By dynamically adjusting
the traveltimes and speeds of the vehicles moving through the network as they respond to
6
congestion, themodel is able to ... adjust the routing of traffic throughout the network as a
NERPC/
function of congestionas it occurs throughout the evacuation." That sounds like the model will
SFRPC
optimize an evacuation togenerate the minimum clearance time for a given scenario, which
seems to be at odds with thegreater chaos of an actual hurricane evacuation. Can you explain
how this seemin o timization" does not deliver a best -case clearance time?
Volume 4-11, Page H-2 states, "All evacuations begin when an order to evacuate has been
issued." Since our evacuation starts 48 hours prior to the expected landfall of Tropical
StormForce winds, doesn't that mean Monroe County has a 48-hour clearance time?
NERPC/
SFRPC
"Clearance Time, Out -Of -County: The time necessary to safely evacuate vulnerable residents
and visitors to a "point of safety" within the county [my emphasis] based on a specific hazard
8
behavioral assumptions and evacuation scenario. Calculated from the point an evacuation
NERPC/
order is given to the point in time when the last vehicle assigned an external destination exits
SFRPC
the county. " Volume 1-11 Glossary Do we need a unique definition without "visitors?" Is
"within the county" correct?
"Shadow Evacuation Population: Persons not affected by an evacuation order that choose to
evacuate to another location they feel is safer. This population resides outside the designated
evacuation zone and lives in site -built structures. The shadow evacuation population can be
significant when the risk is perceived to be great. " Volume 1-11 Glossary
The July 14, 2010 letter from DCA to DEM states, "Based on statutory authority above, we
conclude that shadow evacuation is an important factor to consider when calculating clearance
time. The ability to exit an evacuation zone is dependent upon the road capacities outside the
evacuation zones. Therefore, the impact of all shadow evacuees must be taken into account.
This should be viewed as a factor integral to determining clearance times. The percentage used
to estimate the numbers of shadow evacuees should be derived from the behavioral analyses
[emphasis added] conducted as part of the SRESP."
Table is EvacuaUm Rase Isar ResWerft Uvin in it momes — iami-
Dade Cow ty
Sft4kuItch _. ... s _. �. ?. 3 a b
Wcat'i
9
_ u ..
su zae 40 5ti eis :
C�t_3._s _Ea ramm�e..N..__w �.... �. _ .__ 60 ro _
NERPC/
_..eq,..'
Sq,- 60 r . .... so .0
SFRPC
4:4 d Zone 10 1 :n
Cat 5 Sum Evampfim ZwmR &
Evacuation rate indicates the percent of residents who will leave their homes to go
someplace safer from each zone in each storm threat scenario. Figures are based on
the assumption that officials order evacuation for surge evacuation zones
corresponding to storm category, plus all mobile homes and manufactured homes.
Figures also assume that that the actual storm track passes very close to the area being
evacuated Shaded cells indicate shadow evacuation — evacuation from areas not
included in evacuation notices.
This appears to indicate that in a Category 3 Storm Threat, only 65% of residents in the Cat 1
Surge Zone and 60% of those in Cat 2 & 3 Surge Zones will evacuate, plus these shadow
evacuees: 30% of residents in the Cat 4 Surge Zone, 15% from the Cat 5 Surge Zone and 5%
that are inland of all Surge Zones. What is the behavioral -analysis source of these figures?
Would you please show where the number of shadow evacuees are accounted for in
clearance -time calculations?
The caption under Table ES-5 "Vulnerable Population in the South Florida Region for
2015" (Volume 4-11, page ES-17) states, "Vulnerable population numbers are not inclusive ...
to
for example, vulnerable population listed for Evacuation Zone D does not include vulnerable
population listed for Evacuation Zone C." Is the same true for Table ES-8 - "Vulnerable
Shadow Evacuation Population" (page ES-19 - below)? Are the number of Shadow
NERPC/
SFRPC
Evacuees used to calculate clearance times a summation of the current Level and all
lesser Levels times the Evacuation Rates % of Table M-1 (above)?
Table ES-8 —Vulnerable Shadow Evacuation Population
I.
Evacuation f Evacuation
Evacuation
I Evacuation
Evacuation
Level A Level B
Level C
Level D
I Level E
2410
Broward County 160,714 167,817 156,6171
Miami -Dade Countv 206,603 172 306 194,056
_2-57,809
251893
F 345 643
450,305
.Monroe CountyD 0 0
0
1 0
1 2a1S
11
NERPC/
SFRPC
Broward County 1 169,295 176,8801 165,025
271484
363,604
Miami -Dade county 217,855 178,3341 202,928
259 579
465 23
Monroe County0 01 0
0
0
Note., vulwabAe sbadowpupukbbn deb whine d usft SRE W bebavbW data and county pmwded evaawfi8on zones
See secbm Efor ffie source of the small asa data.
Building on the previous question, is the number of Miami -Dade Shadow Evacuees for a
Level E, 2015 evacuation the sum all Levels, or 1,324,219, that would supplement the total
Vulnerable Population from Table ES-5 of 500,275, for a grand total of 1,824,494 which is
reduced by the Evacuation Rate percentagei for each Zone shown in Table IIIB-1 above?
Since tourist or transient units do not appear in Tables ES-4 and ES-5 "Vulnerable
12
Population...," it is unclear if tourists are included in clearance -time calculations. I
understand that for Monroe County they are not, but are tourists included in Miami-
DEO
Dade and Broward County evacuations, and if they are, where are the associated
numbers shown?
With regard to the February 8 Draft MOU, assumption II b states "The Monroe County
13
evacuation stream is the only traffic being considered by this planning model." Does this mean
that Miami-Dade's traffic is not considered? The first paragraph of the MOU states that we
DEO
willinclude "regional considerations." If that does not mean inclusion of Miami-Dade's
traffic, howare regional considerations included?
14
Draft MOU, assumption II d. "The Evacuation Level being modeled is for a Level C /
Category 3 storm event." What is the basis for this assumption?
DEO
Draft MOU: Florida Statute Section 380.0052(9)(a)(2) states, "[maintain]... a hurricane
15
evacuation clearance time for permanent residents of no more than 24 hours." Since mobile
home owners are permanent residents, albeit possibly in less -substantial dwellings, why
DEO
aren't they included in the clearance time calculations?
At our January meeting, we learned that no mainland traffic from people entering the Keys to
secure second homes is included in our clearance -time calculation. According to 2010 Census
16
data and the 2006-10 American Community Survey, more than 1/3 of Keys' non -tourist
dwelling units were considered vacant. Many of those are second homes that will be tended by
mainland residents when a hurricane threatens. How can that additional traffic best be
DEO
accounted for?
A comprehensive explanation of how military personnel/dependents evacuate is necessary.
17
Specifically, do they evacuate with permanent residents or with transient/mobile home
Navy
residents?
Is there a phased evacuation based on the vulnerability of the different military installations in
18
Key West (i.e., for example, whether Peary Court residents leave as the same time as Sigsbee
Navy
residents, and so forth with respect to the other military installations)?
19
When do military personnel living in civilian housing evacuate?
Navy
20
How were the roadway infrastructure improvements to AlA and N. Roosevelt Blvd. (scheduled
FDOT/
for 2012-2015) incorporated into the modeling efforts? What are the anticipated effects?
DEO
21
What is the feasibility for other net, new allocations to the City of Key West
DEO
22
Can copies of SLOSH Models be provided for the City of Key West?
DEO
How do the proposed amendments to the "Administrative Code" correlate with existing
Operational Plans?
23
• LMS-2010;
NERPC/
SFRPC
• CEMP and associated hazard annexes;
• County;
• Municipality;
24
As the evacuation / clearance times are established, is there a proposed method of enforcement,
.IBA
for administration and/or operationalplans?
25
Will the state provide indemnity for jurisdictions, and their representatives, when operational
TBA
Tans are activated?
26
Is it possible for the State to include Monroe County and municipalities in future maps and
presentations, beyond the 'l 06th mile marker?
TBA
DRAFT FEB 8, 2012
MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDING (MOU) BETWEEN THE FLORIDA DEPARTMENT OF
ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY AND THE COUNTY OF MONROE, CITY OF KEY WEST,
VILLAGE OF ISLAMORADA, CITY OF LAYTON, CITY OF KEY COLONY BEACH, CITY OF
MARATHON AND FLORIDA DMSION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT TO STIPULATE
FOR INPUT VARIABLES AND ASSUMPTIONS FOR UTILIZING THE FLORIDA KEYS
HURRICANE EVACUATION MODEL TO DEPICT HURRICANE EVACUATION CLEARANCE
TIMES
This Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) is being entered into by and between
the State of Florida Department of Economic Opportunity (DEO) and the County of
Monroe (COUNTY), City of Key West, Village of Islamorada, City of Layton, City of
Key Colony Beach, City of Marathon and Florida Division of Emergency Management
(Division) to stipulate, based on professionally acceptable data and analysis, the input
variables and assumptions, including regional considerations, for utilizing the Florida
Division of Emergency Management's Statewide Regional Hurricane Evacuation Model
to depict evacuation clearance times for the population of the Florida Keys.
WHEREAS, the COUNTY and municipalities are within an area that has been
declared an Area of Critical State Concern pursuant to Section 380.05 and 380.0552,
Florida Statutes, Florida Administrative Code, and have adopted a Comprehensive Plans
and Land Development Regulations, approved by the State as required by law; and
WHEREAS, the Legislative Intent of designating the Florida Keys Area as an
Area of Critical State Concerns includes: (a) Establish a land use management system
that protects the natural environment of the Florida Keys; (b) Establish a land use
management system that conserves and promotes the community character of the Florida
Keys; (c) Establish a land use management system that promotes orderly and balanced
growth in accordance with the capacity of available and planned public facilities and
services; (d) Provide affordable housing in close proximity to places of employment in
the Florida Keys; (e) Establish a land use management system that promotes and supports
a diverse and sound economic base; (f) Protect the constitutional rights of property
owners to own, use, and dispose of their real property; (g) Promote coordination and
1
efficiency among governmental agencies that have permitting jurisdiction over land use
activities in the Florida Keys; (h) Promote an appropriate land acquisition and protection
strategy for environmentally sensitive lands within the Florida Keys; (i) Protect and
improve the nearshore water quality of the Florida Keys through the construction and
operation of wastewater management facilities that meet the requirements of sections
381.0065(4)0) and 403.086(10), Florida Statutes, as applicable; and 0) Ensure that the
population of the Florida Keys can be safely evacuated; and
WHEREAS, the Florida Keys remain one of the most vulnerable areas in the
United States to hurricanes and Section 380.0552 (9)(a)2. Florida Statutes, require that
the Comprehensive Plan contain goals, objectives, and policies to protect public safety
and welfare in the event of a natural disaster by maintaining a hurricane evacuation
clearance time for permanent residents of no more than 24 hours. The hurricane
evacuation clearance time shall be determined by a hurricane evacuation study conducted
in accordance with a professionally accepted methodology and approved by the State
Land Planning Agency (DEO); and
WHEREAS, the Administration Commission has directed DEO to enter into a
memorandum of understanding with the Division of Emergency Management, Monroe
County, Islamorada, Key West, Key Colony Beach, Layton and Marathon stipulating the
input variables and assumptions, including regional considerations, for utilizing the
Florida Keys Hurricane Evacuation Model or other models acceptable to DEO in order to
accurately depict and to project evacuation clearance times for the population of the
Florida Keys as provided for in Rules 28-19, 28-18 and 28-20, Florida Administrative
Code; and
WHEREAS, by July 1, 2012, the Department of Economic Opportunity shall
apply the derived clearance time to assess and determine the remaining allocations for the
Florida Keys Areas of Critical State Concern and identify alternative evacuation
strategies that support the 24 hour evacuation clearance time;
2
WHEREAS, Monroe County, Village of Islamorada, City of Key West, City of Key
Colony Beach, City of Layton and City of Marathon, the Florida Division of Emergency
Management, and the DEO do mutually agree that the Building Permit Allocation
projections for the next ten years shall be based upon hurricane evacuation clearance
times that are modeled utilizing and incorporating the following:
I. Variables
1) The Participation Rate shall be % (70% to100% )
2) The Occupancy Rate for site built structures shall be in accordance
with the block group data established by the 2010 census and includes
a range of xx% to XX%.
II. Assumptions:
a. The Response Curve for model runs shall be 12 hours;
b. The Monroe County evacuation stream is the only traffic being considered by this
planning model;
c. The termination point for modeling is Florida City, in accordance with 28-18, 28-19, and
28-20, Florida Administrative Code; and
d. The Evacuation Level being modeled is for a Level C / Category 3 storm event;
e. The Roadway Capacity has been established by the Florida Department of
Transportation as delineated in Exhibit A, hereby referenced and incorporated into this
agreement. Any roadway shoulder enhancements measuring less than ten feet in width
shall not be calculated as capacity for determining future building permit allocations.
f. Transient Participation Phase 1-Day 1: Phase 1 of the 48 hour phased evacuation shall
be run with the assumption that there will be 100 percent participation from
mobile home parks, recreational vehicle parks, and hotel, motel guest house and
vacation rental units, as well as Institutional, special needs, anfd military personnel.
g. Transient occupancy Phase 1-Day 1: The hotel occupancy shall be based
upon the most recent occupancy data from Smith Travel and Associates.
III. Procedure
C
In the event of a pending major hurricane (Category 3-5) Monroe County
and its municipalities shall implement the following staged/phased
evacuation procedures to achieve and maintain an overall 24-hour
hurricane evacuation clearance time for the resident population.
Approximately 48 hours in advance of tropical storm winds, a
mandatory evacuation of non-residents, visitors, recreational vehicles
(RV's), travel trailers), mobile home occupants Institutional and
special needs populations, marina live-aboards (transient and non -
transient), and military personnel from the Florida Keys shall be
initiated. State parks and campgrounds should be closed at this time or
sooner and entry into the Florida Keys by non-residents should be
strictly limited.
Appr- y-imAtely 36 hours in
a f+- 1steFmwinds,
rr
of
L.e e a i 4
1 ,1
�J
V11V .�
residents, ^j+ and ham iW andwaJn
he„+: A..
_hall
initiated.
mei#s
the Keys
Approximately 30 hours in advance of tropical storm winds, a
mandatory phased evacuation of permanent residents by evacuation
zone.
IV. LIABILITY
0
Nothing in this MOU shall be construed to impose on the State of Florida,
Department of Economic Opportunity or the Division of Emergency
Management any liability. Nothing in this MOU may be interpreted as a
waiver of State sovereign immunity. Any provision of this MOU that is
inconsistent with the State's sovereign immunity statute shall be
considered null and void.
V. Modification:
Modification to the Memorandum of Understanding shall be valid only
when reduced to writing and duly signed by all parties.
VI. Miscellaneous:
If any term or provision of this Memorandum of Understanding shall be
invalid or unenforceable to any extent, the remaining terms and provisions shall
not be affected thereby; and each remaining term and provision shall be valid and
shall be enforceable to the fullest extent permitted by law unless the enforcement
of the remaining terms and provisions would prevent the accomplishment of the
original intent of the agreement between the parties.
VII. Terminations:
Any party may terminate this Memorandum of Understanding at any time,
with or without cause. Termination shall take effect within seven (7) days, after
receipt of written notification as evidenced by a certified mail return receipt.
VIII. Notification:
Notification to the DEO shall be directed to the Areas of Critical State
Concern Administrator, Department of Economic Opportunity, 107 East Madison
W
Street, Tallahassee, Florida 32399. Notification to the other parties to this
Memorandum of Understanding shall be directed as follows:
1. Mayor, Monroe County, 2798 Overseas Hwy. Marathon, FL 33050
with a copy to the Growth Management Division Director, 2798
Overseas Hwy. Marathon, FL 33050,
2. Mayor, City of Key West, 3126 Flagler Avenue Key West, Florida
33040, with a copy to the Planning Director, 3126 Flagler Avenue Key
West, Florida 33040,
3. Mayor, City of Marathon, 9805 Overseas Highway Marathon, Florida
33050, with a copy to the Planning Director, 9805 Overseas Highway
Marathon, Florida 33050
4. Mayor, City of Layton, 68260 Overseas Highway P.O. Box 778 Long
Key, FL 33001
5. Mayor, City of Key Colony Beach, P.O. Box 510141 - Key Colony
Beach, Florida 33051-0141 with a copy to the City Clerk at P.O. Box
510141 - Key Colony Beach, Florida 33051-0141
6. Mayor, Village of Islamorada, 86800 Overseas Highway Islamorada,
FL 33036, with a copy to the Planning and Development Services
Manager, 86800 Overseas Highway Islamorada, FL 33036
7. Director, Florida Division of Emergency Management,2555 Shumard
Oaks Boulevard, Tallahassee, Florida 32399-2100, with a copy to the
Hurricane Program Manager
Effective Date:
This Memorandum of Understanding shall become effective upon
execution by all parties, and approval by the Florida Administration Commission
and shall end upon the termination of the Florida Keys Area of Critical State
Concern designation, unless terminated earlier according to Section IV above.
Z
Hurricane Model Scenario Request
By Monroe County
Monroe County Requested Scenarios (Revised March 1, 2012)
Annual
Average
Participation
Clearance
Run
Description
Allocations
Occupancy
Rate
Time
Used
Rates
Cat 3/Level C storm
Zone 1 = 83.8%
Base Run
2010 SRESP demographic
Zone 2 = 72.1%
(Operational
data
la
None
Zone 3 = 57.7%
70%
22.5
Scenario 8A
2010 roadway network
Zone 4 = 61.4%
from SRESP)
12 hr response curve
Zone 5 = 34.5%
Only site -built units
Cat 3/Level C storm
2010 Census data
Census 2010
2010 Census
lb
2010 roadway network
None
70%
data
Occupancy
12 hr response curve
Only site -built units
Cat 3/Level C storm
2010 Census data
Census 2010
2010 Census
1c
2015 roadway network
None
70%
data
Occupancy
12 hr response curve
Only site -built units
Census 2010
data
(Commissioner
Cat 4/L.evel D storm
Murphy
2010 Census data
2010 Census
ld
discuused
2015 roadway network
None
Occupancy
80%
scenarios
12 hr response curve
representing
Only site -built units
worst case
during 2nd Work
Group meeting)
Census 2010
data
(Commissioner
Cat 5/L.evel E storm
Murphy
2010 Census data
2010 Census
le
discuused
2015 roadway network
None
Occupancy
90%
scenarios
12 hr response curve
representing
Only site -built units
worst case
during 2nd Work
Group meeting)
Monroe County Requested Scenarios (Revised March 1, 2012)
Annual
Average
Participation
Clearance
Run
Description
Allocations
Occupancy
Rate
Time
Used
Rates
Simultaneous
evacuation of
Cat 3/Level C storm
Site -built:
mobile home
2010 Census data
Site -built &
70%
and site built
2015 roadway network
Mobile Home:
2a
units
12 hr response curve
None
2010 Census
(Cornrn[ss�oner
Mobile Home & Site -built
Occupancy
Mobile
Murphy
units
Home: 85%
discussed)
Simultaneous
Site -built:
evacuation of
Cat 3/Level C storm
Site -built &
70%
all unit types
2010 Census data
Mobile Home:
Mobile
2015 roadway network
2010 Census
2b
(Cornrn[ss�oner
12 hr response curve
None
Occupancy
Home: 85%
Murphy& John
Harnmerstrorn
Tourist, Mobile Home & Site -
requested thus
built units
Tourist:
du Vt Work
Tourist: 85%
100%
Group meefing)
Simultaneous
evacuation of
Site -built:
all unit types
Cat 4/L.evel D storm
Site -built &
80%
2010 Census data
Mobile Home:
(Cornrn[ssVoner
2015 roadway network
2010 Census
Mobile
2c
Murphy
12 hr response curve
None
Occupancy
Home: 90%
discussed
scenafios
Tourist, Mobile Home & Site-
represenfing
built units
worst case
Tourist: 85%
Tourist:
dufing 2nd Work
100%
Group meefing)
Simultaneous
Evacuation of
Site -built:
all unit types
Cat 5/L.evel E storm
Site -built &
90%
Mobile Home:
2010 Census data
2010 Census
(Cornrn[ss�oner
2015 roadway network
Occupancy
Mobile
2d
Murphy
discussed
12 hr response curve
None
Home: 95%
scenarios
Tourist, Mobile Home & Site-
represenfing
built units
worst case
Tourist:
du fing 2nd Work
Tourist: 85%
100%
Group meefing)
Monroe County Requested Scenarios (Revised March 1, 2012)
Annual
Average
Rung
Description
Allocations
Occupancy
Participation
Clearance
Rate
Time
Used
Rates
Vacant, site-
Tourist: 85%
built units (all)
Cat 3/Level C storm
(includes
Tourist:
added to the
2010 Census data (vacancy
vacant units)
100%
tftt�,, tu'irt�fr>�„
Tourist Unit
t�
evacuation
2015 roadway network
None
phase
12 hr response curve
Mobile Home:
Tourist (including vacant
2010 Census
Mobile
(Representing
units) & Mobile Home Evac
Occupancy
Home: 85%
4,
seasonal units)
���1�� }
50% of the
t 'i�
k�
vacant, site-
Tourist: 85%
Tourist:
t
built units
Cat 3/Level C storm
(includes 50% of
100%
21 Census data (vacancyvacant
units )
;i��`
added to the
Tourist Unit
2015 roadway network
None
3;s
{���
evacuation
12 hr response curve
{rl
phase
Tourist (including vacant
Mobile Home:
Mobile
(Representing
units) & Mobile Home Evac
n
Home: 85%
Occupancy
seasonal unit)s
Include
private,
Cat 3/Level C storm
vacant, non-
2010 Census data
habitat parcels
2015 roadway network
4a
for all LG's
12 hr response curve
None
21 Census
o
70/o
ir
site -built units + assume
(County utilizing
vacant parcels are "Site -built
Tier III private,
units"
vacant parcels —
3,449 parcels)
Include
private, vacant
Cat 3/Level C storm
parcels for all
2010 Census data
LG's
2015 roadway network j
2010 Census
4b
12 hr response curve
None
70%
Occucy
ir
(County utilizing
site -built units + assume
all private,
vacant parcels are "Site -built
units"
vacant parcels -
8,758 parcels)
Monroe County Requested Scenarios (Revised March 1, 2012)
Annual
Average
Participation
Clearance
Rung
Description
Allocations
Occupancy
Rate
Time
Used
Rates
Add 500 Site-
Cat 3/Level C storm
built to the
2010 Census data
�cCensus70%
5a
total site -built
2015 roadway network
None
iry
units from
12 hr response curve
2010 Census
500 additional site -built units
Cat 3/Level C storm
Add 1000 Site-
2010 Censusdata
built to the
2015 roadway network
2010 Census70%
5b
total site -built
None
12 hr response curve
Occupancy
units from
1000 additional site -built
2010 Census
units
Cat 3/Level C storm
Add 1500 Site-
2010 Censusdata
built to the
2015 roadway network
2010 Census70%
5c
total site -built
None
12 hr response curve
Occupancy
units from
1500 additional site -built
2010 Census
units
Cat 3/Level C storm
Add 2000 Site-
2010 Censusdata
built to the
2015 roadway network
2010 Census70%
5d
total site -built
None
12 hr response curve
Occupancy
units from
2000 additional site -built
2010 Census
units
Cat 3/Level C storm
Add 2500 Site-
2010 Censusdata
built to the
2015 roadway network
2010 Census70%
5e
total site -built
None
12 hr response curve
Occupancy
units from
2500 additional site -built
2010 Census
units
Cat 3/Level C storm
Add 3000 Site-
2010 Censusdata
built to the
2015 roadway network
2010 Census70%
5f
total site -built
None
12 hr response curve
Occupancy
units from
3000 additional site -built
2010 Census
units
Excerpt of scenarios published
in the
Statewide Regional Evacuation Study
Program
S1
R
E v,
5 T U
EVACUATION
TRANSPORTATION
ANALYSIS
VOLUME 4-11
SOUTH FLORIDA REGION
Prepared for:
South Florida Regional Planning Council
Florida Division of Emergency Management
Prepared by:
November 2010
Table ES-10 — Operational Scenarios
Scenario 1
Level A 2010
Scenario 2
Level B 2010
Scenario 3
Level C 2010
Scenario 4
Level D 2010
Scenario 5
Level E 2010
Demographic Data
2010
2010
2010
2010
2010
Highway Network
2010
2010
2010
2010
2010
One -Way Operations
None
None
None
None
None
University Population
Default
Default
Default
Default
Default
Tourist Rate
Default
Default
Default
Default
Default
Shelters Open
Primary
Primary
Primary
Primary/Other
Primar /Other
Response Curve
9-hour
12-hour
9-hour
12-hour
12-hour
Evacuation Phasing
Miami -Dade
and Broward
24 hours after
Monroe
Miami -Dade
and Broward
24 hours after
Monroe
Miami -Dade
and Broward
24 hours after
Monroe
Miami -Dade,
Broward, and
Palm Beach
24 hours after
Monroe
Miami -Dade,
Broward, and
Palm Beach
24 hours after
Monroe and
Collier
Behavioral Response
Planning
Planning
Planning
Planning
Planning
Evacuation Zone
A
B
C
D
E
Counties Evacuating
Monroe
Miami -Dade
Broward
Monroe
Miami -Dade
Broward
Monroe
Miami -Dade
Broward
Monroe
Miami -Dade
Broward
Palm Beach
Monroe
Miami -Dade
Broward
Palm Beach
Collier
Scenario 6
Level A 2010
Scenario 7
Level B 2010
Scenario 8a
Level C 2010
Scenario 8b
Level C 2010
Scenario 9
Level D 2010
Demographic Data
2010
2010
2010
2010
2010
Highway Network
2010
2010
2010
2010
2010
One -Way Operations
None
None
None
None
None
University Population
Default
Default
Default
Default
Default
Tourist Rate
Default
Default
Default
Default
Default
Shelters Open
Primary
Primary
Primary
Primary
Primary/Other
Response Curve
9-hour
9-hour
12-hour
12-hour
9-hour
Evacuation Phasing
None
None
None
None
None
Behavioral Response
Planning
Planning
Planning
100%
Planning
Evacuation Zone
A
B
C
C
D
Counties Evacuating
Monroe
Miami -Dade
Broward
Monroe
Monroe
Miami -Dade
Scenario 11
Level A 2015
Scenario 12
Level B 2015
Scenario 13
Level C 2015
Scenario 14
Level D 2015
Scenario 15
Level E 2015
Demographic Data
2015
2015
2015
2015
2015
Highway Network
2015
2015
2015
2015
2015
One -Way Operations
None
None
None
Turnpike
Turnpike & I-75
University Population
Default
Default
Default
Default
Default
Tourist Rate
Default
Default
Default
Default
Default
Shelters Open
Primary
Primary
Primary
Primary/Other
Primar /Other
Response Curve
9-hour
12-hour
12-hour
9-hour
12-hour
Evacuation Phasing
None
None
Miami -Dade
and Broward
24 hours after
Monroe
None
None
Behavioral Response
Planning
Planning
Planning
Planning
Planning
Evacuation Zone
A
B
C
D
E
Counties Evacuating
Monroe
Miami -Dade
Broward
Monroe
Miami -Dade
Broward
Monroe
Miami -Dade
Broward
Monroe
Miami -Dade
Broward
Palm Beach
Monroe
Miami -Dade
Broward
Palm Beach
Collier
Scenario 10
Level E 2010
2010
2010
None
Default
Default
Primary/Other
9-hour
None
Plannina
Broward
Table ES-10 — Operational Scenarios
Scenario 16
Level A 2015
Scenario 17
Level B 2015
Scenario 18
Level C 2015
Scenario 19
Level D 2015
Scenario 20
Level E 2015
Demographic Data
2015
2015
2015
2015
2015
Highway Network
2015
2015
2015
2015
2015
One -Way Operations
None
None
None
None
None
University Population
Default
Default
Default
Default
Default
Tourist Rate
Default
Default
Default
Default
Default
Shelters Open
Primary
Primary
Primary/Other
Primary/Other
Primary/0 her
Response Curve
12-hour
9-hour
12-hour
18-hour
12-hour
Evacuation Phasing
None
None
None
None
None
Behavioral Response
Planning
Planning
Planning
Planning
Planning
Evacuation Zone
A
B
C
D
E
Counties Evacuating
Monroe
Miami -Dade
Broward
Miami -Dade
Broward
Monroe
Miami -Dade
Table ES-13 - 2010 Clearance Times for Operational Scenarios
Scenario 1
Evacuation
Level A
Scenario 2
Evacuation
Level B
Scenario 3
Evacuation
Level C
Scenario 4
Evacuation
Level D
Scenario 5
Evacuation
Level E
Clearance Time to Shelter
Monroe - Key West
5.5
4.5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Monroe - Lower Keys
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Monroe - Middle Keys
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Monroe - Upper Keys
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Monroe - Total
5.5
4.5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Miami -Dade County
9.5
13.0
10.0
13.0
23.5
Broward County
9.5
12.5
9.5
20.5
23.5
In -County Clearance Time
Monroe - Key West
9.5
12.5
10.0
13.0
13.5
Monroe - Lower Keys
16.0
17.5
16.5
19.0
21.0
Monroe - Middle Keys
19.5
22.0
20.0
22.5
25.0
Monroe - Upper Keys
22.5
25.0
22.5
25.5
28.0
Monroe - Total
22.5
25.0
22.5
25.5
28.0
Miami -Dade County
9.5
36.5
33.5
36.5
47.0
Broward County
9.5
12.5
9.5
20.5
42.0
Out of County Clearance Time
Monroe - Key West
9.5
12.5
9.5
12.5
13.0
Monroe - Lower Keys
15.5
17.0
16.0
18.5
20.5
Monroe - Middle Keys
19.5
21.5
19.5
22.0
24.5
Monroe - Upper Keys
22.5
24.5
22.0
25.0
27.5
Monroe - Total
22.5
24.5
22.0
25.0
27.5
Miami -Dade County
1 34.0
1 37.0
1 34.0
1 40.5
1 49.5
Broward County
1 34.5
36.5
45.5
65.0
46.5
Regional Clearance Time
South Florida
1 35.5
38.0
46.5
66.5
49.5
Notes; For scenarios 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5, regional clearance time is larger than the highest out of county clearance time from any of
the counties in the region due to the 24 hour phasing used as part of the scenario.
In -county clearance times are generally not less than the response curve unless in county or to shelter population numbers are very
low. In -county clearance time for Broward County in scenarios 1, 2, and 3 illustrate this, as these scenarios used a 9 hour, 12 hour,
and 9 hour response curve, respectively,
In county clearance times for Miami -Dade County are typically equal to or above Monroe County out of county clearance times for
scenarios that include Monroe County e vacuating. By definition, in county clearance time includes out of county trips from other
counties that pass through evacuation zones in the evacuating county, including Miami-Dade'i combined BIC e vacuation zone
located where US 1 enters from Monroe County,
Out of county clearance time for Broward County in Scenario 4 is significantly larger than the out of county clearance time for
Broward County in Scenario 5 due to the phasing used on Scenario 5, where Collier and Monroe Counties evacuate 24 hours prior to
the remaining counties.
Table ES-13 - 2010 Clearance Times for Operational Scenarios (continued)
Scenario 6
Evacuation
Level A
Scenario 7
Evacuation
Level B
Scenario 8a
Evacuation
Level C
Scenario 8b
Evacuation
Level C
Scenario 9
Evacuation
Level D
Scenario 10
Evacuation
Level E
Clearance Time to Shelter
Monroe - Key West
5.0
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Monroe - Lower Keys
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Monroe - Middle Keys
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Monroe - Upper Keys
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Monroe - Total
5.0
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Miami -Dade County
9.5
N/A
N/A
N/A
10.0
N/A
Broward County
N/A
9.5
N/A
N/A
N/A
9.5
In -County Clearance Time
Monroe - Key West
9.5
N/A
12.5
15.0
N/A
N/A
Monroe - Lower Keys
16.0
N/A
16.5
22.0
N/A
N/A
Monroe - Middle Keys
19.5
N/A
20.0
27.0
N/A
N/A
Monroe - Upper Keys
22.5
N/A
22.5
30.5
N/A
N/A
Monroe - Total
22.5
N/A
22.5
30.5
N/A
N/A
Miami -Dade County
9.5
N/A
N/A
N/A
10.0
N/A
Broward County
5.5
9.5
N/A
N/A
N/A
9.5
Out of County Clearance Time
Monroe - Key West
9.5
N/A
12.5
15.0
N/A
N/A
Monroe - Lower Keys
15.5
N/A
16.5
22.0
N/A
N/A
Monroe - Middle Keys
19.5
N/A
20.0
27.0
N/A
N/A
Monroe - Upper Keys
22.5
N/A
22.5
30.5
N/A
N/A
Monroe - Total
22.5
N/A
22.5
30.5
N/A
N/A
Miami -Dade County
23.5
9.5
23.5
31.5
10.5
11.0
Broward County
1 24.0
10.0
22.5
30.5
13.0
24.0
Regional Clearance Time
South Florida
1 24.0
10.0
23.5
31.5
13.0
24.0
Table ES-14 - 2015 Clearance Times for Operational Scenarios
Scenario 11
Evacuation
Level A
Scenario 12
Evacuation
Level B
Scenario 13
Evacuation
Level C
Scenario 14
Evacuation
Level D
Scenario 15
Evacuation
Level E
Clearance Time to Shelter
Monroe - Key West
5.5
4.0
N/A
N/A
N/A
Monroe - Lower Keys
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Monroe - Middle Keys
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Monroe - Upper Keys
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Monroe - Total
5.5
4.0
N/A
N/A
N/A
Miami -Dade County
10.0
13.0
13.0
10.0
13.0
Broward County
9.5
12.5
12.5
22.5
46.0
In -County Clearance Time
Monroe - Key West
10.0
12.5
13.0
12.0
14.5
Monroe - Lower Keys
16.5
18.0
17.5
19.5
22.0
Monroe - Middle Keys
20.0
22.5
21.0
23.5
26.0
Monroe - Upper Keys
23.0
26.0
24.0
26.0
29.5
Monroe - Total
23.0
26.0
24.0
26.0
29.5
Miami -Dade County
10.0
26.0
36.5
26.5
29.5
Broward County
9.5
12.5
12.5
22.5
47.0
Out of County Clearance Time
Monroe - Key West
10.0
12.5
12.5
11.5
14.0
Monroe - Lower Keys
16.0
17.5
17.0
19.0
21.5
Monroe - Middle Keys
20.0
22.0
20.5
23.0
25.5
Monroe - Upper Keys
23.0
25.5
23.5
25.5
29.0
Monroe - Total
23.0
25.5
23.5
25.5
29.0
Miami -Dade County
24.0
26.5
37.0
27.0
44.5
Broward County
24.5
27.0
43.0
46.5
47.0
Regional Clearance Time
South Florida
1 24.5
27.0
44.5
46.5
47.0
Notes; For scenario 13, regional clearance time is larger than the highest out of county clearance time from any of the counties in
the region due to the 24 hour phasing used as part of the scenario.
In -county clearance times are generally not less than the response curve unless in county or to shelter population numbers are very
low. In -county clearance time for Broward County in scenarios 11, 12, and 13 illustrate this, as these scenarios used a 9 hour, 12
hour, and 12 hour response curve, respectively.
In county clearance times for Miami -Dade County are typically equal to or above Monroe County out of county clearance times for
scenarios that include Monroe County e vacuating. By definition, in county clearance time includes out of county trips from other
counties that pass through evacuation zones in the evacuating county, including Miami-Dade'i combined BIC e vacuation zone
located where US 1 enters from Monroe County,
Table ES-14 - 2015 Clearance Times for Operational Scenarios (continued)
Scenario 16
Evacuation
Level A
Scenario 17
Evacuation
Level B
Scenario 18
Evacuation
Level C
Scenario 19
Evacuation
Level D
Scenario 20
Evacuation
Level E
Clearance Time to Shelter
Monroe - Key West
4.0
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Monroe - Lower Keys
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Monroe - Middle Keys
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Monroe - Upper Keys
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Monroe - Total
4.0
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Miami -Dade County
13.0
10.0
N/A
N/A
13.0
Broward County
N/A
9.5
12.5
N/A
N/A
In -County Clearance Time
Monroe - Key West
12.5
N/A
N/A
19.0
N/A
Monroe - Lower Keys
17.0
N/A
N/A
20.5
N/A
Monroe - Middle Keys
21.0
N/A
N/A
24.0
N/A
Monroe - Upper Keys
24.0
N/A
N/A
27.0
N/A
Monroe - Total
24.0
N/A
N/A
27.0
N/A
Miami -Dade County
13.0
10.5
N/A
N/A
13.5
Broward County
N/A
9.5
12.5
N/A
N/A
Out of County Clearance Time
Monroe - Key West
12.5
8.5
N/A
18.5
N/A
Monroe - Lower Keys
16.5
9.5
N/A
20.0
N/A
Monroe - Middle Keys
20.5
9.5
N/A
23.5
N/A
Monroe - Upper Keys
23.5
10.0
N/A
26.5
N/A
Monroe - Total
23.5
10.0
N/A
26.5
N/A
Miami -Dade County
24.5
10.5
12.5
27.5
13.5
Broward County
25.0
25.5
13.0
26.5
17.0
Regional Clearance Time
South Florida
1 25.0
25.5
13.0
27.5
17.0
Monroe County Suggested Revisions to
Draft Memorandum of Understanding
DRAFT FEB 8, 2012-MavRoE Col VTY
1 ME1IIORANDUII I OF UNDERSTANDING (MOU)
2 BY AND BETWEEN
3 THE FLORIDA DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY .AND THE COUNTY OF
4 MONROE, CITY OF KEY WEST, VILLAGE OF ISLAMORADA, CITY OF LAYTON, CITY OF
5 KEY COLONY BEACH, CITY OF MARATHON AND FLORIDA DIVISION OF E11IERGENCY
6 MANAGEMENT
7
8 This Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) is being entered into bv_ and between the State of
9 Florida's Department of Economic Opportunity (the "DEO") and Division of Emergency Management
10 (the "Division") and Monroe Countv, the Citv of Kev West, the Village of Islamorada, the City of
11 Lavton, the Citv of Kev_ Colonv Beach, the Citv of Marathon (the "Local Governments") for purposes of
12 complying with Rules 28-18, 28-19, and 28-20, F.A.C., and to stipulate to the State's data and analysis
13 and input variables and assumptions, including regional considerations, for utilizing the Florida Division
14 of Emergency Management's Statewide Regional Hurricane Evacuation Model and other data sources,
15 to depict evacuation clearance times for the population of the Florida Keys Area of Critical State
16 Concern.
17 WHEREAS, the Local Governments are within an area that the Florida Legislature has declared
18 an Area of Critical State Concern (the Florida Kev_ s ACSC), pursuant to Section 380.05 and 380.0552,
19 Florida Statutes: and
20 WHEREAS, the Local Governments have adopted state -mandated Comprehensive Plans and
21 Land Development Regulations, which have been approved by the State, as required by law; and
22 WHEREAS, the State's Legislative Intent of designating the Local Governments as an Area of
23 Critical State Concern includes to:
24 (a) Establish a land use management system that protects the natural environment of the Florida
25 Kevs:
26 (b) Establish a land use management system that conserti-es and promotes the community_
27 character of the Florida Kevs:
28 (c) Establish a land use management system that promotes orderly and balanced growth in
29 accordance with the capacity of available and planned public facilities and seiA-ices,
30 (d) Provide affordable housing in close proximity to places of employment in the Florida Keys,
31 (e) Establish a land use management system that promotes and supports a diverse and sound
32 economic base:
33 (f) Protect the constitutional rights of property owners to own, use, and dispose of their real
34 property;
35 (g) Promote coordination and efficiency among governmental agencies that have permitting
36 jurisdiction over land use activities in the Florida Kevs;
DRAFT FEB 8, 2012—MavROE COUNTY
1 (h) Promote an appropriate land acquisition and protection strategy for environmentally_ sensitive
2 lands within the Florida Kevs:
3 (i) Protect and improve the nearshore water quality of the Florida Kevs through the construction
4 and operation of wastewater management facilities that meet the requirements of ss. 381.0065(4)(1) and
5 403.086(10), as applicable; and
6 (j) Ensure that the population of the Florida Key_ s can be safely_ evacuated (Section 380.0552 (2)
7 Florida Statutes); and
8 WHEREAS, the Florida Kevs remain one of the most vulnerable areas in the United States to
9 hurricanes and the Florida Legislature has mandated that the Local Governments include within the
10 goals, objectives, and policies of their respective Comprehensive Plans, measures to protect public
11 safety and welfare in the event of a hurricane by maintaining a evacuation clearance time for permanent
12 residents of no more than 24 hours (Section 380.0552 (9)(a)(2) Florida Statutes, Rule 28-
13 18.400(5)(a)10., F.A.C., and Rule 28-19.310(5)(a)5., F.A.C., and Rule 28-20.140(5)(a)14., F.A.C.),
14 WHEREAS, the Florida Legislature further mandated that the hurricane evacuation clearance
15 time for the Florida Kevs ACSC shall be determined by a state -approved hurricane evacuation study,
16 conducted in accordance with a professionally accepted methodology; and
17 WHEREAS, the Division of Emergency Management has prepared an evacuation study, titled
18 "Statewide Regional Evacuation Studies Program," dated <insert date of report>. which was prepared
19 and funded by the state Legislature and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA); and
20 WHEREAS, the Administration Commission has directed DEO, the Division of Emergency
21 Management, and the Local Governments to enter into this MOU stipulating the input variables and
22 assumptions, including regional considerations, for utilizing the Florida Kevs Hurricane Evacuation
23 Model or other models acceptable to DEO in order to accurately depict evacuation clearance times for
24 the population of the Florida Key_ s ACSC, as provided for in Rules 28-18, 28-19 and 28-20, Florida
25 Administrative Code: and
26 WHEREAS, the Parties have evaluated numerous studies and data related to the <insert
27 variables (e.g., occupancy, participation, vacant units/parcels>, and have determined that the following
28 best represent the most likely scenario for evacuating residents �nd non-residents' rom the Florida Keys
29 ACSC in the event of the Category 3 or higher storm event: <insert bases for variables (e.g., Sntith
30 Travel, FDOT, FKAA, and other)>, and
31 WHEREAS, by July 1, 2012, the Department of Economic Opportunity shall apply the derived
32 clearance time to assess and determine the remaining allocations for the Florida Keys ACSC or identify
33 alternative evacuation strategies that support the 24 hour evacuation clearance time; and
34 WHEREAS, the purpose of this Memorandum of Understanding is to clarify the methodology
35 for the State's allocation of development units in the Florida Keys ACSC among the Local Governments
36 and is not regulatory in nature and is not binding on the Parties: 4nd
37 NOW THEREFORE, the Parties Nvish to set forth the following understandings:
2
Comment [Al]: Should we include this .(non
residents) or should we describe as Day I non-
resident evacuation and Day 2'resident
evacuation (phased'. evac)?
Statute includes "clearance time for permanent
residents of no more: than 24 hours."
Rule includes "depict evacuation clearance times for
the population of the Florida Keys."
County Comp Plan includes "ackueve and maintain
an overall 24-hour hiuncane evacuation clearance
time for the resident population"
Should check other LG Comp Plans
Comment [A2]::This needs Broadened to include
rules 28-20 14Q 28 18 400, 28-19 310 and the
wording needs to say exactly
Department of Conmuuuty Affairs shall annly the
derived clearance time to assess and determine
the remaining allocations for the Florida Iievs ,.
Areas of Critical State Concern. The Department
will reconmiend appropriate revisions to the
Adnurushation Conurussion re¢archn2 the allocation
rates and distribution of allocations to Monroe
County. Marathon, Islaniorada, Key Nest. Lavton
and Kev Colonv Beach oridentifi alternative
evacuatioI
shatecies that support the 24 hour
evacuation clearance time. If necessw\% flee
Department of Conmuuuty Affairs shall work with
I:each local goverimient to aniend the Comprehensive _
Plans to reflect revised allocation rates and
distributions or propose nde malang to the
rAdnurushation Conum»ron
11
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
DRAFT FEB 8, 2012 — Mo vROE COUNTY
PART ONE: INPUT VARIABLES AND ASSUMPTIONS
Based on the "Statewide Regional Evacuation Studies Program," <insert additional studies or bases for
recommendations>, the following Input Variables and Assumptions provide the basis for the State's
recommended model, clearance times, and remaining development allocations:
A. The State has determined that the <msert date> "Statewide Regional Evacuation Studies
Program" and the associated transportation evacuation model (developed in Cube with a
custom built GIS based graphic user interface) will be utilized to depict evacuation
clearance times for the population of the Florida Keys ACSC.
1. <insert reasons for choosing model>
B. Pursuant to Rules 28-18, 28-19 and 28-20, Florida Administrative Code, for the purposes
of hurricane evacuation clearance time modeling purposes, clearance time shall begin when
the Monroe County Emergency Management Coordinator issues the evacuation order for
permanent residents �or a hurricane that is classified as a Category 3-5 wind event or
Category C-E surge event.
C. The number of units included in the model include:
1. Tourist units: (source/date)
2. Manufactured and mobile homes: (2010 Census)
3. Site -built homes: (2010 Census)
D. The assumed number of people per unit types is:
1. Tourist units:
2. Manufactured and mobile homes:
3. Site -built homes:
3
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
DRAFT FEB 8, 2012 — Mo vROE COUNTY
E. The assumed Occupancy Rates, based on the block group data established by the 2010
Census, are:
1. Manufactured and mobile homes:
Zone 1
°o
Zone 2
°o
Zone 3
00
Zone 4
00
Zone 5
00
2. Site -built homes:
Zone 1
°o
Zone 2
°o
Zone 3
00
Zone 4
00
Zone 5
00
F. The assumed Occupancy Rates, based on < insert source/date> is:
1. Tourist units:
Zone 1
°o
Zone 2
°o
Zone 3
00
Zone 4
00
Zone 5
00
G. The assumed Response Curti-e for model runs is 12 hours for all unit types.
H. The assumed Participation Rates are:
1. Tourist units: %
2. Manufactured and mobile homes: %
3. Site -built homes: %
1. The evacuation stream is the only assumed traffic demand considered in the State's model'L
J. Pursuant to Rules 28-18, 28-19 and 28-20, Florida Administrative Code, the termination
point for evacuation from the Florida Key_ ACSC is U.S. Highway One and the Florida
Turnpike in Homestead/Florida City:
K. The assumed Roadway Capacity:
4
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
DRAFT FEB 8, 2012—Mo,vROE COUNTY
1. is as established by the Florida Department of Transportation, as delineated in
Exhibit A, hereby referenced and incorporated into this agreement, and
2. does not include any roadway shoulder enhancements measuring less than ten
(10) feet in width.
L. The assumed vehicle usage rates are:
1. Tourist units: %
2. Manufactured and mobile homes: %
3. Site -built homes: %
M. The assumed number of vehicles per occupied units is:
1. Occupied Tourist units:
2. Occupied Manufactured and mobile homes:
3. Occupied Site -built homes:
N. <Insert Remaining Input Variables and Assumptions >
O. <Insert Remaining Input Variables and Assumptions >
FART TWO: EVACUATION PROCEDURES
A. Approximately 48 hours in advance of tropical storm winds:
1. the Local Governments will issue a mandatory evacuation notice for the following
non-resident persons:
B.
2.
1. the Local Governments will issue a mandatory evacuation notice for the following
permanent residents::
5
artnient of Conmuuuty Affairs shall apple the
red clearance time to assess and determine the
airung allocations for the Florida Revs Areas of
cal State Concern. The Department Nvill'.
nuuend appropriate revisions to the
urustration Conurussion regarding the allocation
d and distribution of allocations to Monroe
utv. Marathon, Islamorada, Isev West, Lavton
Iiev Colony Beach oridentiN alternative
;nation strategies that support the 24 hour
;nation clearance time. IY nece»ar5, the 4
artment of Coumuuuty Affairs shall wort Nvrth
L local govermuent to aniend the Comprehensive
s to reflect revised allocation rates and
ibutions or propose nde nialang to the
urustration Conum»ron
DRAFT FEB 8, 2012—MavROE COUNTY
1 a. Site -built homes,
2 b. <insert other `permanent" residential land uses
3 C. <Insert Remaining Evacuation Procedures>
4 D. <Insert Rentainin-eEvacuation Procedures>I
5 PART THREE: MISCELLANEOUS
6 A. Liability. As this Memorandum is not binding on the Parties and is not regulatory,
7 nothing in this MOU shall be construed to impose on the State of Florida, DEO,
8 DEM, or the Local Governments any liability. Nothing in this MOU may be
9 interpreted as a waiver of sovereign immunitv for any Party. Any provision of this
10 MOU that is inconsistent with the State's sovereign immunity statute shall be
11 considered null and void.
12 B. Modification. Modification to the Memorandum of Understanding shall be valid
13 only when reduced to writing and duly signed by all parties.
14 C. Severability. If any term or provision of this Memorandum of Understanding shall be
15 invalid or unenforceable to anv extent, the Parties agree to comply with remaining
16 terms and provisions, unless compliance of the remaining terms and provisions would
17 prevent the accomplishment of the original intent of the agreement between the
18 Parties.
19 D. Termination. Any Party may terminate this Memorandum of Understanding at any
20 time, with or without cause. Termination shall take effect upon receipt of written
21 notification by a Partv to all other Parties.
22 E. Notification. Notification by a Party to the DEO shall be directed to the Areas of
23 Critical State Concern Administrator, Department of Economic Opportunity, 107 East
24 Madison Street, Tallahassee, Florida 32399. Notification to the other parties to this
25 Memorandum of Understanding shall be directed as follows:
26 L Mavor, Monroe Countv, 2798 Overseas Hwy. Marathon, FL 33050 with a
27 copy to the Growth Management Division Director, 2798 Overseas Hwy_ .
28 Marathon, FL 33050,
29 2. Mavor, Citv of Kev West, 3126 Flagler Avenue Key West, Florida 33040,
30 with a copy to the Planning Director, 3126 Flagler Avenue Kev_ West, Florida
31 33040,
32 3. Mavor, Citv of Marathon, 9805 Overseas Highway Marathon, Florida 33050,
33 with a copy to the Planning Director, 9805 Overseas Highway Marathon,
34 Florida 33050
35 4. Mavor, Citv of Lav_ ton, 68260 Overseas Highway P.O. Box 778 Long Key,
36 FL 33001
37 5. Mavor, Citv of Kev Colonv Beach, P.O. Box 510141 - Kev Colonv Beach,
38 Florida 33051-0141 with a copy to the City_ Clerk at P.O. Box 510141 - Kev_
39 Colonv Beach, Florida 33051-0141
6
DRAFT FEB 8, 2012—MavROE COUNTY
6. Mayor, Village of Islamorada, 86800 Overseas Highway Islamorada, FL
33036, Nvith a copy to the Planning and Development SeiA-ices Manager,
86800 Overseas Highway Islamorada, FL 33036
7. Director, Florida Division of Emergency Management,2555 Shumard Oaks
Boulevard, Tallahassee, Florida 32399-2100, with a copy to the Hurricane
Program Manager
7 F. Effective Date. This Memorandum of Understanding is effective upon execution by
8 all Parties, and approval by the Florida Administration Commission and ends upon
9 the termination of the Florida Kevs Area of Critical State Concern designation, unless
10 terminated earlier according to Part III (D) above.
11
DRAFT FEB 8, 2012—Mo,vROE COUNTY
IN WINTESS WHEREOF, the parties have executed this Memorandum of Understanding.
CITY OF KEY WEST, FLORIDA,
Craig Cates, Mayor
This day of , 2012.
ATTEST:
James Scholl, City Manager
Approved as to form and legality:
Shawn Smith, City Attorney
BOARD OF COUNTY COMMISSIONERS
OF MONROE COUNTY
David Rice, Mavor
This day of , 2012.
ATTEST:
Roman Gastesi, Countv Administrator
Approved as to form and legality:
Suzanne Hutton, Countv Attornev
8
DRAFT FEB 8, 2012—Mo,vROE COUNTY
CITY OF MARATHON, FLORIDA
Peter Worthington, Mayor
This day of , 2012.
ATTEST:
Roger Hernstadt, City Manager
Approved as to form and legality:
John Herin, Citv Attornev
CITY OF LAYTON, FLORIDA
Norman S. Anderson, Mavor
This day of , 2012.
ATTEST:
Philip Haring Administrative
Assistant to the Mavor
Approved as to form and legality:
Citv Attornev
9
DRAFT FEB 8, 2012—Mo,vROE COUNTY
CITY OF KEY COLONY BEACH, FLORIDA
Ron Sutton, Mavor
This day of , 2012.
ATTEST:
Vickie L. Bollinger, City Clerk
Approved as to form and legality:
Thomas D. Wright, City Attorney
VILLAGE OF ISLAMORADA, FLORIDA
Michael Reckwerdt, Mavor
This day of , 2012.
ATTEST:
Edward Koconis, Village Manager
Approved as to form and legality:
Nina Boniske, Village Attorney
a
DRAFT FEB 8, 2012—Mo,vROE COUNTY
STATE OF FLORIDA DIVISION OF EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT
Brian Koon
Director, Florida Division of
Emergency Management
Date
Approved for Legal Sufficiency:
Bv:
Date
STATE OF FLORIDA DEPARTMENT
OF ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY
J. Thomas Beck, AICP
Director, Division of Communitv
Development
Date
Approved for Legal Sufficiency:
m
DRAFT FEB 8, 2012—Mo,vRoE COUNTY
1 Bv:
6 Date
12
rM�S
BOCC
3/2-1 12-01 z
AqevLdalleryi M19
Hurricane Model Scenario Request
By Monroe County
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Monroe County Requested Scenarios (Revised March 1, 2012)
'�'J�`
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Cat 3/Level C storm
Zone 1 = .%
Base Run
2010 SRESP demographic
72
Zone 2 =.1/°
(Operational
data
1a
None
7
Zone 3 = 57.%
70%
22.5
Scenario 8A
2010 roadway network
0
Zone 4 = .
from SRESP)
12 hr response curve
%
3
Zone 5 =4.5/o
Only site -built units
Cat 3/Level C storm
2010 Census data
Census 2010
2010 Census
1 b
2010 roadway network
None
70%
data
Occupancy
12 hr response curve
Only site -built units
Cat 311-evel C storm
2010 Census data
Census 2010
2010 Census
1c
2015 roadway network
None
70%
data
Occupancy
12 hr response curve
Only site -built units
Census 2010
data
(Commissioner
Cat 4/Level D storm
Murphy
2010 Census data
2010 Census
1d
discussed
2015 roadway network
None
80%
Occupancy
scenarios
12 hr response curve
representing
Only site -built units
worst case
during 2"d Work
Group meeting)
Census 2010 -
data
(Commissioner
Cat 5/Level E storm
Murphy
2010 Census data
Census
1e
discussed
2015 roadway network
y
None
90%
Occupancy
Occupancy
scenarios
12 hr response curve
representing
Only site -built units
worst case
during 2"d Work
Group meeting)
AAA mob4I ie lxcnLkc units
AJ8 sceina.h o 1-F (srI-e but N- + mob;Ie� � Cal' S si'wm����,%4
homts PA
NO
Monroe County Requested Scenarios (Revised March 1, 2012)
G! _ .,'gym • 4=
MOP
_- -
Simultaneous
Cat 3/Level C storm
Site -built:
2010 Census data
Site -built &
70%
c
\ite2015 roadway network
12 hr response curveNone2010
Mobile Home:
CensusOccupancy
\�
Mobile Home & Site -built
Mobile
Home: 85%
units
discussed)
Simultaneous
Site -built:
evacuation of\re
l C storm
Site -built &
70%
all unit typesus
data
Mobile Home:
2010 Census
y network
Mobile
(CommissionerNone
Murphy & Johnnse
curve
Occupancy
Home: 85%
-_ Hammerstrom
ome & Siterequested
thisni
Tourist:
A during 1st Work
Tourist: 85%
100%
,.
Group meeting)
Simultaneous
evacuation of
Site -built:
all unit types
Cat 4/Level D storm
Site -built &
80%
2010 Census data
Mobile Home:
(Commissioner
2015 roadway network
2010 Census
Mobile
Murphy
discussed
12 hr response curve
a
Occupancy
Home: 90%
Q/
scenarios
Tourist, Mobile Home & Site -
representing
built units
worst case
Tourist: 85%
Tourist:
during 2nd Work
100%
Group meeting)
Simultaneous
Evacuation of
Site -built:
all unit types
Cat 5/Level E storm
Site-bui &
Mobile Ho
90%
Mobile
Y (Commissioner
2010 Census data
2015 roadway network
2010 Census
Occupancy
Q/
a
Murphy
12 hr response curve
None
me: 95%
v
discussed
= scenarios
Tourist, Mobile Home & Site -
representing
built units
worst case
Touris
during 2nd Work
Tourist: 85%
100%
r Group meeting)
v
Q1
`i xese, av e sarA e scetiaA as -�ry M pm%�-
3
Monroe County Requested Scenarios (Revised March 1, 2012)
t, site-
Tourist: 85%
built uni
Cat 3/Level C storm
(includes
Tourist:
added to the
Tourist Unit
10 Census data (vacancy
vacant units)
100%
evacuation
2015 roa _ _ network
None
phase
12 hr response
Mobile Home:
_
Tourist (including vacant
-
2010 Census
Mobile
(Representing
units) & Mobile Home Evac
_
Occupancy
Home: 85%
seasonal units)
�50°
vacant, site-
—
Tourist: 85%
Tourist:
built units
Level C storm
2010 Censu vacancy
(includes 50% of
vacant units)
100%
added to the
#s)
Tourist Unit
2015 roadway network
evacuation
12 hr response curve
-�
phase
Tourist (including vacant
ome
- le
units) & Mobile Home Evac
20 10 Cens
e: 85°°
(Representing
Occ
Occupancy O
seasonal unit)s
Include
private,
Cat 3/1-evel C storm
vacant, non-
2010 Census data
habitat parcels
2015 roadway network
4a for all LG's
12 hr response curve
None
2010 Census
°
70 /°
Occupancy
site -built units + assume
(County utilizing
vacant parcels are "Site -built
Tier III private,
units"
vacant parcels -
3,449 parcels)
Include
private, vacant
Cat 3/1-evel C storm
parcels for all
2010 Census data
LG's
2015 roadway network j
2010 Census
4b
12 hr response curve
None
70%
Occupancy
Occupancy
(County utilizing
site -built units + assume
all private,
vacant parcels are "Site -built
units"
vacant parcels -
8,758 parcels)
M A ►Ytobile ky,t.e uv�tFs `ice Scenc�.�os �a.+46
4
Monroe County Requested Scenarios (Revised March 1, 2012)
Add 500 Site- Cat 3/Level C storm
built to the 2010 Census data
2010 Census
5a
total site -built 2015 roadway network
None
70%
Occupancy
units from 12 hr response curve
2010 Census 500 additional site -built units
Cat 3/1-evel C storm
Add 1000 Site-
2010 Census data
built to the
2015 roadway network
2010 Census
5b
total site -built
None
70%
12 hr response curve
Occupancy
units from
1000 additional site -built
2010 Census
units
Cat 3/1-evel C storm
Add 1500 Site-
2010 Census data
built to the
2015 roadway network
2010 Census
5c
total site -built
None
70%
12 hr response curve
Occupancy
units from
1500 additional site -built
2010 Census
units
Cat 3/Level C storm
Add 2000 Site-
2010 Census data
built to the
2015 roadway network
2010 Census
5d
total site -built
None
70%
12 hr response curve
Occupancy
units from
2000 additional site -built
2010 Census
units
Cat 311-evel C storm
Add 2500 Site-
2010 Census data
built to the
2015 roadway network
2010 Census
5e
total site -built
None
70%
12 hr response curve
Occupancy
units from
2500 additional site -built
2010 Census
units
Cat 3/Level C storm
Add 3000 Site-
2010 Census data
built to the
2015 roadway network
2010 Census
5f
total site -built
None
70%
12 hr response curve
Occupancy
units from
3000 additional site -built
2010 Census
units
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