Item B1 Appendices 4 MONROE COUNTY COMPREHENSIVE PLAN UPDATE
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ECONOMIC TRENDS AND
OPPORTUNITIES IN
UNINCORPORATED
MONROE COUNTY
Monroe County Comprehensive Plan Update
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1.0 Current Economic and Employment Conditions .....................................1
2.0 Employment Characteristics and Long Term Trends............................2
3.0 Industry Analysis ...............................................................................................9
3.1 Tourism................................................................................................................................10
3.1.1 Tourism and Visitors.......................................................................................................................10
3.1.2 Tourism and Hotels..........................................................................................................................11
3.1.3 Effects of the Hotel Moratorium on Tourism in Unincorporated Monroe County....
....................................................................................................................................................................13
3.2 Seasonal Residential Development............................................................................16
3.3 Government........................................................................................................................19
3.4 Business Service, Finance and Real Estate...............................................................19
3.5 Other Retailing...................................................................................................................19
3.6 Other Services.....................................................................................................................20
3.7 Medical and Health Services..........................................................................................20
3.8 Waterfront Related...........................................................................................................20
4.0 Vacant Land Use and Availability..............................................................22
5.0 Livable CommuniKeys Plans.......................................................................25
5.1 Livable CommuniKeys Plans -Vision and Outlook...............................................25
5.3 Summary of Upper Keys - Key Largo LCP..................................................................27
5.4 Summary of Middle Keys.................................................................................................27
5.5 No Name and Big Pine Keys LCP...................................................................................27
5.7 Stock Island and Key Haven LCP...................................................................................27
Economic Trends and Opportunities i Keith and Schnars,P.A.
April 2012 Fishkind and Associates
Monroe County Comprehensive Plan Update
6.0 Working Waterfront ......................................................................................28
6.1 Summary and Findings of the Marine Management Working Waterfronts
Report....................................................................................................................................31
7.0 Monroe County Strengths and Weakness Assessment.......................31
8.0 Recommendations..........................................................................................33
8.1 Redevelopment Floor Space Bank...............................................................................33
8.2 Target Industry- Tourism - Ending the Moratorium on New Hotels.............34
8.3 Target Industry- Marine Resources...........................................................................35
8.4 De-Couple Commercial Development from Residential Development..........36
8.5 Growth Industries - Target List.....................................................................................36
Economic Trends and Opportunities ii Keith and Schnars,P.A.
April 2012 Fishkind and Associates
Monroe County Comprehensive Plan Update
1.0 Executive Summary
Monroe County is primarily comprised of the Florida Keys, an ecologically fragile island
based community stretching some 130 miles in an archipelago from south of Miami at
Biscayne Bay to Key West. The total land area is some nearly 1,000 square miles,
distributed among 800 +/- keys, excluding the Everglades National Park which is located
on the mainland. The largest of these keys include Key Largo, Islamorada, Marathon,
Tavernier, Big Pine and Key West.
Collectively, the Keys represent considerable natural and economic resources including
two national parks, world renown tourism and destination resorts, a long established
commercial and recreational fishing industry and extensive accessible coral reefs which
support a large recreational snorkeling and scuba diving industry.
Today the County faces a variety of economic constraints. These stem from national trends
in the structure of employment and local conditions which contribute to a lack of
investment. Further, a determination made at the State level has concluded growth and
development has reached its effective physical carrying capacity in the Keys. The result of
this determination is a regulatory constraint on growth which allows only a very small and
limited amount of net new residential and non-residential construction each year. This
regulatory constraint is known as ROGO (Rate of Growth Ordinance) for residential
development and NROGO for non-residential development. ROGO has been in place since
1992; the County adopted NROGO in 2002. The combined effect of nearly 20 years of
restrictive development regulation, increasing environmental regulation coupled with
infrastructure capacity constraints, the need for rapid emergency evacuation plans and the
national shift in employment structure and trends has slowed economic development
throughout Monroe County. To illustrate: During the 1980's the Monroe County
employment base grew by 50%. In the two decades following, the employment base has
only increased by 10%.
From an economic structural standpoint, dynamic long term trends at the national and
global levels shift the economic structure of the local economy. Absent a highly focused
and long term effort to modify the effect of these forces, the global and national trends will
prevail. These global and national structural trends include a shift away from industrial
production in the United States and a shift toward a service and retail based economy. At
the national level some 50% of manufacturing jobs have been lost in the United States since
1960. By the same measure, service and retail positions have grown by more than 250
percent each. In Florida, which has never had the share of manufacturing and industrial
employment as found elsewhere in the nation, the structural employment shift to service
and retail has been more pronounced over this period. Thus, in the face of these forces,
employment by industry type in the Florida Keys has shifted in a more pronounced way
toward a service and retail based economy.
There are numerous other factors which contribute to economic opportunity outlook in
Monroe County. These include: the location of Monroe County with respect to access to
Economic Trends and Opportunities 1 Keith and Schnars,P.A.
April,2012 Fishkind and Associates
Monroe County Comprehensive Plan Update
mainland United States, the lack of existing available raw materials, a lack of plentiful
quantities of potable water which affects water pressure and fire insurance ratings, the
geographic constraints associated with the physical layout of the Keys stretching as an
archipelago over 130 miles, and very low lying flood prone lands which are subject to
periodic violent and destructive hurricanes. Finally, the cost of development coupled with
the overall shortage of vacant lands hinders the ability of the local labor force to reach
levels sufficiently high to support large new industrial or commercial facilities. These
factors impact the diversity and economic development potential of Monroe County over
the long term.
Despite this, the very constraints which hinder certain kinds of economic expansion are
also what assure that the County remains special and unique, giving rise to its pre-eminent
attractiveness for tourism and vacation homes living. The Keys are remote, and vibrant
with nature and marine environments yet accessible for weekend getaways or longer to a
large permanent population located in south Florida.
Within this context there are opportunities to expand the economic base of Monroe County
which can and should be explored. This report examines these opportunities and offers
some insight as to potentially viable economic expansion.
2.0 Employment Characteristics and Long Term Trends
Employment patterns have been examined by industry throughout Florida. Florida has
long been known as a seasonal, vacation oriented economy. Further, as it is comparatively
geographically removed the rest of the nation, manufacturing and shipping have
traditionally not been strong industries. Finally, as manufacturing employment has shrunk
throughout the nation over the long term, it has been replaced by growth in business and
personal services. These broader aspects of employment patterns influence employment
in Florida and as well, are reflective of the employment patterns in Monroe County. In
many respects, the employment profile in Monroe County is quite similar to the average
employment profile found throughout Florida in both large metropolitan areas and small
island communities.
Figure 1 compares the percent distribution of employment by major industry between
Monroe County, and large metro areas in Florida as well as small island communities in
Florida. In a geographical sense Monroe County is to Florida as Florida is to the nation -
that is, remote, comparatively tourist oriented and experiencing a shift from waterfront
marine and fishing industries to a service oriented economy. These are the broader, long
term trends which circumscribe the patterns likely to emerge in the future.
Economic Trends and Opportunities 2 Keith and Schnars,P.A.
April,2012 Fishkind and Associates
Monroe County Comprehensive Plan Update
45
40
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
.5 _
0%
L \
Island Communities Monroe Metro/FL
Figure 1 - Comparison of Monroe County Employment
By Industry Among Large Metros and Island Communities
The employment distribution pattern by type is quite similar across the State. In Figure 1,
the Metro areas include the average of employment distribution patterns in Miami-Dade
County, Orange County, and the State of Florida as a whole. The Island Communities
examined in this instance include the combined average employment profile of Fernandina
Beach, Marco, Longboat Key, and Cedar Key. Generally speaking the employment profile in
Monroe County is quite similar both to island communities in Florida and urbanized metros
in Florida. The categories in Figure 1 include: Agriculture and Fishing; Construction;
Manufacturing/Transportation/Communications/Utilities/Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade;
Finance/Insurance/Real Estate; Service; Government.
Looking at island communities on a closer level, an examination of communities with
similar characteristics was conducted. Coastal island communities with a long cultural
history, a reliance on fishing and similar environmental and ecological constraints may be
useful or instructive analogues to examine. These areas may shed some light on the
opportunity or outlook for the Florida Keys. As indicated, the comparable communities
examined include Fernandina Beach, Marco, Longboat Key, and Cedar Key. Figure 2 shows
the employment profile comparisons among these communities.
Economic Trends and Opportunities 3 Keith and Schnars,P.A.
April,2012 Fishkind and Associates
Monroe County Comprehensive Plan Update
40% —
35%
30%
25%
20,', —
15%
10%
5 oA �I
C)% T
C&I", iG��'No beta+� V01v 10 Stir
■Fernandina Beach ■Marco Longboat Key Cedar Key Monroe
Figure 2 - Employment Profile Comparisons
Among Florida Island Communities
Current Conditions and Historic Growth Patterns in Employment by Sector
The dominant industry throughout Monroe County (incorporated and unincorporated
areas) is tourism. This segment of the economy has held the lead position in employment
in the county for more than 30 years. The tourism/visitor industry includes eating and
drinking establishments, hotel motel space along with seasonal rental properties and
entertainment venues such as museums,theaters parks and beaches. The tourism industry
represents about one third of Monroe County employment, as measured by jobs covered
under unemployment compensation. Fully half of this industry is concentrated in Key
West. This sector has added more jobs county wide than any other since 1980 (see Table 1
and Figure 3).
The Remainder of This Page Intentionally Left Blank
Economic Trends and Opportunities 4 Keith and Schnars,P.A.
April,2012 Fishkind and Associates
Monroe County Comprehensive Plan Update
Table 1 - Monroe County Employment by Industry
1980 1990 2000 2010
Hotel/Eat-,Drink/Entertainment 5,732 9,685 11,396 10,506
Government 4,578 5,400 6,052 5,808
Business Service/Finance/RE 1,570 1,811 2,322 4,392
Other Retail 3,126 4,978 5,738 3,790
Other Services 765 11817 3,215 2,379
Construction 1,310 1,786 2,233 2,150
Industrial/Warehouse 2,022 2,737 2,774 2,008
Medical/Health Services 699 1,569 2,150 1,895
AgSvc, Fishing,Water Trans, Food Proc 1,064 1,025 800 648
TOTAL 20,866 30,808 36,680 33,576
As illustrated in Table 1, Government holds the second place in number of jobs county
wide. This includes Federal, State, and Local government jobs however it excludes active
duty military personnel stationed at installations in the Keys. Active duty military
personnel add some 1,200 persons representing the NAS Key West complex of facilities.
With the addition of the active duty personnel, government employment would still be the
second largest employment segment in the County.
Rising to third place in the number of employees in Monroe County is the Business
Services/Finance/Real Estate category. The share of employment in this category has
nearly doubled in 30 years and the number of employees has approximately tripled.
Other retailing outside of tourist oriented establishments (eating, drinking, entertainment)
had ranked third in volume of covered employment until 2010. By 2010 employment in
this category had fallen to 4th largest in Monroe County. It is unclear if the decline in "Other
Retailing"is cyclical and related to the recent recession or permanent and structural.
The Remainder of This Page Left Intentionally Left Blank
Economic Trends and Opportunities 5 Keith and Schnars,P.A.
April,2012 Fishkind and Associates
Monroe County Comprehensive Plan Update
35.0% -
30.0%
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
1980 1990 2000 2010
tHote/Eat D•ink/Ent —0- Gov'L —i&m-6usn Svc/Fii/RE Other Retail
Figure 3 - Share of Employment by Sector 1980-2010
Other Services is the Sth largest employment category (see Figure 4). Employment in this
category has also tripled since 1980, though the share has declined as other sectors grew at
faster rates.
Construction is the 6th largest employment sector in the Monroe County economy.
Construction employment as a share of countywide employment has changed little in 30
years.
Industrial and warehouse employment has remained essentially unchanged at 2,000
employees over the past three decades. The lack of growth in this sector, despite 50%
overall employment gains county wide is symptomatic of the decline in industrial and
manufacturing employment in the United States and also of the challenges faced by a
remote location with limited transportation and labor force opportunity.
Employment in the medical and health services category has tripled since 1980. While this
category is small as a share of total employment it is among the fastest growing sectors of
the Monroe economy (Figure 4).
Covered employment in Agricultural Services, Fishing, Water Transportation, and Food
Processing is the smallest among all categories in Monroe County. This may be misleading
to some degree in that much of the employment in the marine and fishing industry locally
is comprised of proprietorships and self employed. This means the ranks of those in the
marine and related industry may not appear in the measure of covered employment, for
the purposes of unemployment compensation. For example there are some 2,500
commercial boat licenses in Monroe County, suggesting the marine industry is substantially
larger than what is depicted in the covered employment data series.
Economic Trends and Opportunities 6 Keith and Schnars,P.A.
April,2012 Fishkind and Associates
Monroe County Comprehensive Plan Update
Because of the island nature of Monroe County and the obvious reliance on marine and
coastal activity, the marine industry will be examined in a separate light. Of note is that
within the covered employment data series, which refers to employees eligible for
unemployment compensation, employment has fallen by nearly 40% in 30 years, from
approximately 1,000 persons to 650 today.
Occupational license data was reviewed to assess marine related employment and activity.
Occupational license data includes charter boats and captains, marina and boat storage,
mobile marine repair, marine related retail, marine wholesale supply, and marine repair.
There are 1,928 such licenses. Some boat and captain licenses are duplicative resulting in
an estimated 1500 active occupational licenses. Not all of these licenses will result in a full
time job and many hold a captain's license but are simply not active. Based on this
information we find marine and marine related services remains the smallest employment
category in Monroe County.
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
1980 1990 2000 2010
--A—OtherSvc -41--Constr -40—IndlWrhs —Med/Hlth Svc -w*—Ag Svc/FishinglWaterTrans
Figure 4 - Share of Employment by Sector 1980-2010
In addition to looking at the composition of employment by industry in Monroe County, we
also examine the changes in composition over time. Figures 3 and 4 illustrate how the mix
by industry has evolved over the past 30 years. Change in the share of employment is an
indicator of which industries have momentum and may be expected to have growth
potential in the future. In this section we examine the changes in share. By identifying
employment sectors which are growing we help identify the key components of the local
economy which offer opportunity for the future.
The employment segment with the greatest increase in share during the past three decades
is Business Services/Finance and Real Estate (see Figure 5). The dominant component by
far within this category is business services. Business services as a category consists of
legal, accounting, architectural, computer and management consulting, research,
Economic Trends and Opportunities 7 Keith and Schnars,P.A.
April,2012 Fishkind and Associates
Monroe County Comprehensive Plan Update
advertising other professional services and business support. Finance and real estate are
comparatively stagnant and given the current economic conditions may not be expected to
show significant improvement in the short to medium term. Thus, business services is
identified as a sector offering substantial employment growth. Its share of employment has
doubled over time and is now the third largest employment segment in the countywide
economy.
The visitor industry is comprised of Hotel/Motel rooms, eating and drinking
establishments, and entertainment venues. This is the largest sector of the Monroe County
economy by far, accounting for at least 1/3 of all employment countywide. It is the second
fastest growing segment of the economy as well, having gained more than 5 points in share
since 1980. The visitor industry has long been the focal point of the Monroe County
economy.
"Other Services" includes automotive service, personal care, laundry, civic and religious
organizations and repair services for household and commercial equipment. Other
Services is the 3rd fastest growing employment segment countywide. This segment has
shown very consistent growth over the decades. Though the share of this segment is small
(only the Sth largest of 9 groups) the rate of growth in this segment is the fastest of any
segment in the local economy.
Medical and Health services has also grown very rapidly since 1980. Since year 2000 the
average age of all persons in Florida has increased from 39 years to 40 years and from 37
years to 38 years in Miami-Dade. In Monroe County however, the average age of all
persons has increased from 41 years to 43 years. The Monroe County population is older
and has increased by a greater amount than the population in Miami-Dade County and
throughout Florida. By 2030 the University of Florida projects 44% of the Monroe County
population will be age 55 and up, compared with 32% in Miami-Dade and 38% statewide.
The older population will require more medical services supporting an opportunity for
continued increases in medical services in Monroe County.
The remainder of the major employment segments in Monroe County has shown no
increase in the share of employment. These comparatively slow growth segments include
government, industrial/warehouse, other retailing, marine industries and construction.
While most of these sectors added jobs overall from 1980-2010, the pace of growth was
below average and so each sector lost market share overall, or in the case of construction
increased share only very marginally.
Economic Trends and Opportunities 8 Keith and Schnars,P.A.
April,2012 Fishkind and Associates
Monroe County Comprehensive Plan Update
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
0
-4% u1�
ZI
-6% P'�G' oe1'
Figure 5 - Net Change in Share of Employment by Type 1980-2010
3.0 Industry Analysis
As an overview to the local economy of Monroe County we have compared the profile of
major industry segments in Monroe County to other island communities in Florida as well
as to other major metropolitan employment centers across the state. We have looked at
the mix of industries and employment in Monroe County, the share of major employment
segments and the trends and change in these segments, over a 30 year time horizon.
Through these analyses we have identified strengths and weaknesses, as well as large and
fast growing employment sectors in the Keys. The areas of strength, combined with those
segments which are large and fast growing, present in our view the best opportunities for
future economic development and job growth. These segments represent the base of
opportunity which, if promoted and strengthened, can provide sufficient revenue and
economic flexibility to allow further investment in special segments which offer innovation,
cultural and community strengths and other desired aspects of keys living and community
building. Below we focus in on these segments and describe the opportunities they afford.
Economic Trends and Opportunities 9 Keith and Schnars,P.A.
April,2012 Fishkind and Associates
Monroe County Comprehensive Plan Update
3.1 Tourism
The dominant industry throughout Monroe County is tourism. It is the largest employment
sector countywide. The visitor industry has had the second fastest growth in market share
and added by far the most number of jobs of any employment sector in Monroe County
since 1980. The visitor industry includes eating and drinking establishments, hotel motel
space along with seasonal rental properties and entertainment venues such as museums,
theaters and parks. The visitor industry represents about one third of the Monroe County
economy, as measured by employment. The Keys hosted approximately 3.3 million visitors
during 2009, with some 2.2 million visiting Key West. Of those visiting Key West, 39%
were cruise ship visitors. Fully two thirds of visitor activity countywide is concentrated in
Key West(see Table 2).
While the visitor industry is large and adds substantial employment, wages are lower than
average, representing about 76% of the average wage countywide. The impact on
household earnings is perhaps less dramatic in as much as 1 in 3 visitor industry workers
holds more than one job. Also, many persons in the real estate industry sell or rent
vacation homes and the average wage among these workers is almost 90% of the average
wage. Nonetheless, the strength and attractiveness of the visitor industry in terms of jobs
and long term growth is offset to some degree by lower wages.
By measures created by the Monroe County Tourist Development Council, the visitor
industry in its entirety (including multiplier effects) is responsible for 60 percent of total
Monroe County output(sales) and half of all employment countywide.1
Thus, it is clear the Visitor industry is a critical component of the functioning of the
countywide economy. Policies which encourage expansion of the visitor industry, promote
higher wages for visitor industry workers, and continue to support the strength in
employment gains should be considered.
3.1.1 Tourism and Visitors
The Monroe County visitor industry is highly concentrated in Key West. Tourist
development Council data illustrate the nature of visitor activity. As noted earlier fully one
third of all employment in Monroe County is concentrated in the visitor industry. The
multiplier effect of this activity increases the overall impact and importance of the visitor
industry.
The Remainder of This Page Left Intentionally Left Blank
i"Study of the Monroe County Tourism Workforce",August 2006,Monroe County TDC,page 8
Economic Trends and Opportunities 10 Keith and Schnars,P.A.
April,2012 Fishkind and Associates
Monroe County Comprehensive Plan Update
Table 2 -Visitors to the Florida Keys by Type and Location
Florida Keys Visitor Person-Trip Estimates
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Key West Overnight Visitors 1,309,559 1,303,633 1,046,111 1,063,752 1,094,647 1,112,978 17165,327
Key West Day Trippers 242,268 241,172 2377460 196,794 202,510 205,901 206,263
Cruise Ship Passengers 1,067,222 934,070 925,795 888,183 816,919 739,218 859,409
Tota I Key West Visitors 2,619,049 2,478,875 2,209,366 2,148,729 2,114,076 2,058,097 2,230,999
All Keys Overnight Visitors 27425,110 2,414,135 1,937,244 2,030,062 27089,021 2,169,565 27092,732
All Keys Day Trippers 448,645 446,615 4397742 375,561 386,469 401,369 370,414
Cruise Ship Passengers(Key west Only) 1,067,222 934,070 9257795 888,183 816,919 739,218 859,409
Totai All Keys Visitors 3,940,977 3,794,820 3,302,781 3,293,806 3,292,409 3,310,152 3,322,555
Monroe County Lodging Occupancy%: 72.2% 71.2% 70.0% 66.5% 68.1% 67.5% 70.3%
Sources:Monroe Counh'Tow ist Development Council;Snerth Tim-el Research
3.1.2 Tourism and Hotels
By year-end 2010 there were 8,796 hotel rooms in Monroe County according to Smith
Travel Research data (see Figure 6). There has been a net loss of 452 rooms since year-end
2003, some 5 percent of the countywide hotel room inventory. Hotel room inventory had
declined by 12% from 2003-2007 and has rebounded adding 366 rooms since 2007. An
additional 4,800 seasonal units are found in resorts. The number of resort units has grown
by 19%, some 772 units, since 2003, according to the Florida Department of Business and
Professional Regulation. The total inventory of visitor accommodations has been relatively
stable or grown slightly over the past decade, now totaling more than 13,500 units, though
the mix and type of accommodations have changed from shorter stay hotel rooms to longer
stay resort units.
9,400
9,200
9,000
8,800
8,600
8,400
8,200
8,000
7,800
7,600
LD°N° Z�°N°'I Z�°�° L�°5°'11°°�O°1 LD°�Q°'1 L�°�° 1°° °12Q°apL2�°�'°'I,1-0°°�°11O°g°�T13V _0^11 '11Q",_
Source: Smith Travel Research, Fishkind &Associates, Inc.
Figure 6 - Monroe County Hotel Room Inventory
Among hotel rooms throughout Monroe County it is estimated 2,199 rooms are located
within the unincorporated areas. Of the rooms in the unincorporated areas of Monroe
Economic Trends and Opportunities 11 Keith and Schnars,P.A.
April,2012 Fishkind and Associates
Monroe County Comprehensive Plan Update
County 54% are within structures older than 40 years old. From a building use and
architectural perspective, 40 years is a generally accepted measure of the useful life of
buildings and structures. By the end of the 20 year planning horizon, an additional 30% of
hotel properties will age into the greater than 40 year old category, if no renovation is
undertaken. Figure 7 shows the age of hotel room inventory in the unincorporated
portions of Monroe County, as of year 2010.
60%
50°A
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
40+yrs old 20-40 years LT 20 yrs
Source:The County Property Appraiser;Fishkind&Associates,Inc.
Figure 7 - Age of Hotel/Motel Structures,
Unincorporated Monroe County 2010
While there are many buildings standing today which are much older than 40 years, older
buildings require extensive investment and renovation to maintain their usefulness. This is
particularly the case in a place like the Florida Keys which has a very challenging climate
and environment regarding stability and livability of built structures. The climate of the
Keys increases the wear and tear on buildings and structures. Issues such as mold, sun
exposure, heat exposure, salt exposure, and storm damage can render buildings useless
very quickly. The majority of inventory of hotel motel rooms in the unincorporated keys
today is obsolete from a building age standpoint. This means substantial and ongoing
investment and renovation is required to maintain these structures.
Over the next twenty years as older properties continue to age, 84% of unincorporated
hotel/motel structures will exceed their useful lives. Over the next twenty years, the vast
majority of inventory of unincorporated hotel and motel rooms will require either a)
replacement or b) extensive renovation. This places the hotel industry throughout the
unincorporated keys in a precarious position from the standpoint of needed capital
investment over the planning horizon. This condition also highlights the redevelopment
opportunity which is likely to become increasingly evident over the planning horizon. The
need for hotel property investment coupled with a de-facto restriction on hotel expansion
Economic Trends and Opportunities 12 Keith and Schnars,P.A.
April,2012 Fishkind and Associates
Monroe County Comprehensive Plan Update
due to seasonal occupancy constraints means new hotel tourists are likely to be
accommodated in newly built seasonal residential housing units and hotels which are in
need of renovation will be unable to justify needed capital investments.
3.1.3 Effects of the Hotel Moratorium on Tourism in Unincorporated Monroe
County
At present there is a Monroe County ordinance and Comprehensive Plan policy effective in
the unincorporated area which prohibits any new hotel development throughout the
unincorporated keys. This ordinance precludes all new hotel room/unit development. The
development prohibition is in place due to the county designation as an area of critical
state concern (ACSC). Under the ACSC designation hotel rooms are considered residential
units and therefore would require allocation from ROGO, further reducing available
increments of new housing supply under ROGO. In the past there has been a policy
recommendation suggesting annual hotel occupancy must exceed 90% in order for new
hotels to be warranted. There are no historic records which indicate hotel occupancy has
ever exceeded 90% on an annual basis. Further, generally accepted, standard operating
hotel financial performance norms indicate hotel operations are at the financial breakeven
point near 65% occupancy2. It is for these reasons that in unrestricted markets, there are
usually few new hotels built when annual occupancy is consistently below 65%. But, when
annual occupancy is consistently above 65%, the market typically responds by adding new
hotel rooms until annual occupancy falls back to approximately 65%. Throughout the hotel
industry, occupancy runs between 63% and 73% on an annual basis, under normal market
conditions.
Figure 8 shows historic monthly occupancy in Monroe County.
Monthly Occupancy Rates, Including Key West
2 http:llwww.thefreelibrary.comfUS+hotel+industry+now+breaks+even+at+55.5+percent+oceupancv.-a021173755 and
http:/lwww.thefreelibrary.com f Trends+in+the+hotel+industry.-a0131592609
Economic Trends and Opportunities 13 Keith and Schnars,P.A.
April,2012 Fishkind and Associates
Monroe County Comprehensive Plan Update
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
�_P 01 �a� Ppt �a`l 0111 VIA red 01_� boy del_
—4-2003 t2004 —A-2005 --00-2006 —1-2007 +2008 2004 2010
Source:Smith Travel Research,Fishkind&Associates,Inc.
Monthly Occupancy Rates, Excluding Key West
2007 107 t -1009 201 D �_. ,. it-"12 %Chq
inuary 68-0% .3% 50.61. :: _ 55.1% 17.3%
February 72.3% -5.5% 71.9%
b �
may 04.,3% - - U
k 67 0% 70 =°e. 72.0'.�
Au l 80 1% F14� :'. 59.2% E'a, 81.3%
Noy#nlotr 52 9% A% 5 7% !L26 7% 63 5
D m r 48 5% 48.E 51 1% 50
Figure 8 - Monroe County Monthly Hotel Occupancy
For existing hoteliers this speaks to a need for policy and support that will stimulate and
encourage redevelopment, add to peak season revenue potential perhaps through more
rooms/capacity in the same footprint and substantially build off-season occupancy.
To change the seasonal visitation pattern in the Keys may require very high cost low
margin-of-return advertising campaigns. This must also be viewed in light of the very
substantial rate reductions which are found in September and October. To illustrate the
revenue and rate reduction issue, during year 2010, revenue during the peak season was
$192 per available room. During the off season this fell to $70. Rates would have to decline
Economic Trends and Opportunities 14 Keith and Schnars,P.A.
April,2012 Fishkind and Associates
Monroe County Comprehensive Plan Update
even more sharply to improve off season occupancy or new target markets identified and
captured.
To the degree tourism accounts for the largest employment segment in Monroe County and
the moratorium on new transient units is overly restrictive and stifles growth in the tourist
industry,the policy direction for Monroe County is contradictory. These policies contribute
to the development of seasonal residential units and the conversion of permanent
population to seasonal population, in our view. Further, the hotel moratorium likely
contributes to the loss of existing hotel space, much of which is obsolete and in need of
investment and rehabilitation but cannot justify the capital expense in the face of declining
tourist numbers. The loss of permanent population and decline of the visitor industry
hurts the cultural and social stability of local keys communities and hurts employment
growth in the county's largest employment segment.
As stated, hotel unit development is also under the residential ROGO constraint. To the
degree hotel and tourist evacuations begin 48 hours prior to general evacuations (with a 6
hour overlap with general evacuations); hotels and tourists do not pose a hurricane
evacuation bottleneck. To the degree new hotel units should be encouraged, along with off
season occupancy support policy, and to the degree the number of hotel rooms and tourists
are declining, hotels should be removed from the residential ROGO constraint and be
allowed to develop or redevelop as market forces dictate. This would allow successful
properties unimpeded opportunity to improve and support the tourist industry throughout
the Keys.
For policy considerations, how Monroe County counts rooms vs. units may provide some
additional flexibility with respect to hotel/motel redevelopment opportunity. For example,
hotel suites with more rooms per "unit" may allow existing hotels to add capacity without
triggering other evacuation constraints on new development. This policy direction should
be evaluated.
The Remainder of This Page Intentionally Left Blank
Economic Trends and Opportunities 15 Keith and Schnars,P.A.
April,2012 Fishkind and Associates
Monroe County Comprehensive Plan Update
3.2 Seasonal Residential Development
The character of the housing inventory throughout the Keys is changing. There are a
number of reasons for this shift. Some of these reasons include: the restriction on new
hotel space in unincorporated areas which drives tourist growth into seasonal units, the
lack of adequate wage employment which limits demand for permanent housing,
conversion of apartments to condo, the constraining effects of ROGO on new residential
housing which places a premium on housing, drives prices up and forces a move toward
units with greater value and return, the expansion of retirement and second home
communities in the Keys and the rapidly escalating prices of developable land. These
factors all contribute to a shift toward development of higher value seasonal housing.
As an island community, it is known that some services normally found in mainland
communities may not be available in the Keys. These include medical, regional retail,
financial and transportation services. The structural lack of these kinds of services makes
the accommodation of seasonal housing easier in terms of pressure on and support by the
local infrastructure. This is not to say retirement and workforce populations will not grow
in the Keys, or that local infrastructure is non-existent, only that accommodating seasonal
households is the easiest economic opportunity, by comparison. While there is a
prohibition on seasonal rentals in some residential areas, many units are not "rented" and
are simply held for occasional use by owners, family and friends.
Thus, the trend toward increased seasonality, which has emerged with greater clarity over
the past decade, is likely to continue. To change this trend, if desired, policies, land use
allocations, new hotel development and investment must be undertaken to redirect the
development trend toward more permanent population with higher levels of services, plus
support for employment and employment opportunity. A more permanent and stable
population base is more consistent with the Livable CommuniKeys Plans, rather than the
more seasonal and transient based trend. Some of the current policies and market
conditions also do not favor expanded economic development which would support
employment growth.
In Monroe County as a whole the trend towards increased seasonal housing is quite
pronounced as seen in Figure 9, which includes total inventory of both municipal and
unincorporated data. These same data indicate that among the just net growth in
inventory from 2000-2009, 73% of all net new residential units did not have homestead
exemption. Such high non-permanent dwelling unit volumes supports the shift toward
increased seasonality as is also described in the American Communities Survey.
Economic Trends and Opportunities 16 Keith and Schnars,P.A.
April,2012 Fishkind and Associates
Monroe County Comprehensive Plan Update
60%
58%
56%
54%
52%
50%
48% —
46°A
44%
Non-homestead% SF Non-homestead %
Figure 9 - Monroe County Non-Homestead Exempt Units
In the unincorporated areas the trend toward greater seasonality is similar. Among all
unincorporated single family homes 53% in total are homesteaded. However among those
single family units built from 2000-2009 only 45% are homesteaded leaving 55% as non-
homestead/seasonal units. This pattern represents a significant shift over the past decade
resulting in the majority of new single family units built being non-homesteaded or
seasonal. For condos throughout the unincorporated Keys, fully 85% are non-
homesteaded units and 96% of those built after year 2000 are non-homesteaded. Overall,
among single family and condo units combined, the inventory of housing in the
unincorporated keys is now 53% non-homesteaded. Among all single family and condo
combined, the inventory of housing in the unincorporated Keys built after year 2000 is
57%. The unincorporated Keys are becoming increasingly seasonal, based on the
characteristics of new residential units built.
Economic Trends and Opportunities 17 Keith and Schnars,P.A.
April,2012 Fishkind and Associates
Monroe County Comprehensive Plan Update
Over the past 20 years there have been 1,101 apartment units converted to condominiums.
Half of these conversions took place in just three years from 2004-2006 as shown in Figure
10.
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
�° gti gti �� �° �� �� �� �� �� °° oti oti o�' °° °� °P
Figure 10 - Condominium Conversions in Monroe County
The loss of rental apartments in this fashion often leads to displacement of lower income
rental householders. The degree to which displaced renters have left the Keys is unknown
and the degree to which recently converted units subsequently ended up in foreclosure is
also unknown. Generally speaking, outside of the housing bubble and a one-time surge in
1990, conversion levels are low throughout all Monroe County. The record volume of 557
conversions countywide from 2004-2006 is likely to have created additional need and
additional opportunity to develop replacement rental housing. The lack of rental housing
will also constrain employment growth as the economy begins to recover from recession.
Apartment and quality rental housing development is a land use need and opportunity
which can be accommodated in the unincorporated areas of the county. Apartment
development would support local community efforts to build and maintain community
strength as a more permanent and stable population, rather than development of seasonal
transient housing. The conversion of apartments leaves a need for worker oriented and
affordable workforce housing.
Economic Trends and Opportunities 18 Keith and Schnars,P.A.
April,2012 Fishkind and Associates
Monroe County Comprehensive Plan Update
3.3 Government
The second largest segment of employment in the county is government, including local,
state and federal. Government has lost the most market share in terms of employment
than any other industry in Monroe County over the past 3 decades. It remains the second
largest employer; however, we anticipate government employment will remain stagnant
throughout the next decade, resulting in a further loss in share.
Local municipal budgets are negatively affected by falling ad valorem tax revenues, public
school budgets are also subject to falling ad valorem revenue which will limit new hiring.
Further the November 2010 ballot amendment to relax class size requirements will reduce
the need for additional teachers. State and local government employment in the short term
may decline by a small degree. Federal Government employment is primarily post office
and civilian employment on military bases. Federal employment has remained unchanged
in Monroe County over the past decade. While government employment is the second
largest sector of the economy, it has lost the most market share of any segment since 1980
as seen in Figure S.
Average wages paid through all government positions are 37% higher than the average
wage countywide, reaching almost$50,000 per year.
3.4 Business Service, Finance and Real Estate
Business Service Finance and Real Estate is the third largest employment category in
Monroe County representing 13% of existing employment. This category has gained more
share of total employment than any other segment since 1980. More than 2,800 business
service jobs have been added over this period. Most of these new job formations have been
concentrated in management, consulting, travel services, computers, and business services.
Finance and Real Estate have added a small portion of these jobs however the strength in
this sector lies in professional and technical services rather than banking and real estate.
Professional service jobs pay 16% higher than the average wage countywide, almost
$42,000 per year. These jobs represent moderate to high skill positions and represent a
key target sector for employment growth strategies.
3.5 Other Retailing
Retail categories, excluding eating and drinking establishments, typically include apparel,
sporting goods, construction materials, electronics and autos. These categories have lost
both employment and market share most notably over the past ten years. Employment in
"other retailing"is now below 1990 levels and market share has fallen from peak of 16%to
11% today. There are no regional shopping centers in excess of 30 acres in Monroe
County. Community and neighborhood shopping is essentially all that is offered except for
smaller stand alone specialty stores and a handful of stand alone department stores/big
box stores. Retailing pays 76% of the average wage. In Monroe County retailing is a slow
growth industry, is constrained for space, is subject to high transportation costs to bring
Economic Trends and Opportunities 19 Keith and Schnars,P.A.
April,2012 Fishkind and Associates
Monroe County Comprehensive Plan Update
goods in and provides a low wage. Support of existing retail centers is important so that
residents and visitors do not have to drive long distances to meet basic needs. However,
retailing is not a target for job expansion and creation, except as needed to support basic
needs. Rehabilitation of existing centers and retail space is needed so that retail facilities
do not succumb to obsolescence and fail to provide the basic services needed. Obsolete
structures and facilities will also contribute to erosion of jobs and loss of market share. An
inventory analysis of commercial retail buildings and structures in the keys suggests there
is need for this type of facilities rehabilitation. Incentivizing redevelopment of retail
structures should be a policy focus. This may include a square footage bonus to offset
rehabilitation costs and relaxation of policies regarding upgrades to non-conforming uses.
3.6 Other Services
This category was the fastest growing employment segment from 1980-2010, with
employment increasing by more than 200% during the period. The "Other Services"
category consists of personal services, legal services, private educational services and
engineering and accounting services. This category pays 90% of the average wage.
3.7 Medical and Health Services
Medical and health services are among the fastest growing segments of the Monroe County
economy. Almost 1,200 jobs have been added in this employment segment since 1980.
Average wages are in excess of $44,000, more than 20% above the countywide average
wage. Medical and health related facilities will continue to be in high demand as the
population ages. Employment in this category has gained a 2 percentage point increase in
share of total employment since 1980 making it the category with the 4th largest gain in
share of employment and the 3rd fastest growth rate. With high wages and fast growth the
medical and health segment is a desirable target industry on which to focus additional land
use and economic development policies.
3.8 Waterfront Related
Among traditional island communities in Florida through the past 100 years, there has
been a reliance on fishing, boating and marine environments and marine related industry
such as shipping and boat repair. Through a century of change, the marine industry has
declined while other areas of employment have grown in dramatic fashion. In terms of the
volume and share of employment, there is very little fishing, food processing or water
transportation related employment today, compared with employment in retail, finance
and the broader service sector. The fishing industry accounts for only 1 percent of
employment in island communities. Adding food processing, marine shipping, marine
repair and marina raises the share to 2 percent in Monroe County.
Recreational boating has expanded. This has opened opportunities for pleasure boat repair,
boat maintenance and storage. Pleasure boat licenses have more than doubled in the Keys
since 1980 (see Figure 11). This speaks directly to an important segment of the economy
Economic Trends and Opportunities 20 Keith and Schnars,P.A.
April,2012 Fishkind and Associates
Monroe County Comprehensive Plan Update
which is the vacation home or second home industry. Recreational waterfront activity
supports redevelopment of waterfront areas such that the historic character and some
historic uses and building are preserved while the economic drivers supporting waterfront
properties is tourist and vacation home based. This has meant a waterfront redevelopment
transition to service and tourist related activities similar to Savannah, Georgia; Des Moines,
Iowa and old harbor areas such as Boston and Baltimore. The result is a vibrant waterfront
which can accommodate some historic fishing and boating related commercial activity.
At the same time, as measured by commercial fishing licenses, the volume and size of the
commercial fishing industry has declined sharply over the past 30 years. Commercial
fishing licenses have fallen by 25% and the volume of seafood catch has declined some 70%
(see Figure 12).
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
1980 1988 1998 2008
Figure 11 - Pleasure Boat Licenses in Monroe County
Water related employment is the smallest employment segment among island communities
today, and equally small elsewhere in Florida. Based on trends in commercial registrations,
fish and shellfish catch volumes, and covered employment, the marine industry is not a
growth industry in Monroe County. Nor is it a growth industry in other island communities
or elsewhere in Florida. Within the marine industry, what exists today is an important
component of the history and character of Monroe County. It is an important aspect of the
local restaurant business which offers "fresh catch". Given the past 30 years of decline, the
historic nature of the marine and fishing industry and the loss of waterfront property to
non-marine uses, there is a need to develop a support system to help maintain the viability
of the industry as it currently exists. The marine industry as it relates to fishing can
become a cultural focal point, support surrounding uses and continue to support and build
the local restaurant industry. However, the marine industry is not likely to become a
substantial employment generator in the future, nor a large-scale or growing aspect of the
Keys economy. At most the entire value of commercial seafood and shellfish landings
Economic Trends and Opportunities 21 Keith and Schnars,P.A.
April,2012 Fishkind and Associates
Monroe County Comprehensive Plan Update
(before expenses) is less than 5 percent of total personal income in Monroe County. Today,
the economy of the Keys has developed, expanded and diversified. Understanding this
diversification is integral to planning for new economic opportunities.
30.0 5,000
4,500
25.0
4,000
20.0 3,500
3,000
15.0 2,500 a
m
0 2,000
10.0
1,500
5.0 1,000
500
0.0 0
1980 1988 1998 2008
Catch Volume(lbs) —W—Commercial Boat Licenses
Figure 12 - Commercial Fishing Industry- Monroe County
There is an opportunity for growth in marine related industries outside of fishing. This
includes marine research, coral reef preservation and marine related eco-tourism. One
such important facility is the Navy's Marine Corrosion Test Facility at Key West/Stock
Island. Through the process of military technology transfer for civilian use, the ongoing
research and technology at this facility offers the potential to help develop local industry
synergies with respect to marine materials testing, underwater audio and marine biology.
Coral reef research and preservation is of vital national and international interest. The
Florida Keys are well suited to conduct such research in conjunction with nearby
universities and national funding sources. This discussion will be expanded upon later in
the report.
4.0 Vacant Land Use and Availability
Within commercial lands in unincorporated areas there are no vacant parcels in excess of
25 acres. This combined with a 35-foot height restriction plus numerous small vacant
parcels substantially reduces the opportunity to accommodate any new large scale
employment generator in unincorporated areas. Job growth under these conditions is
limited to incremental improvements.
Monroe County is also subject to the Non-residential Rate of Growth Ordinance (NROGO).
NROGO limits commercial construction by allowing a ratio of 239 square feet of
Economic Trends and Opportunities 22 Keith and Schnars,P.A.
April,2012 Fishkind and Associates
Monroe County Comprehensive Plan Update
nonresidential floor area for each new residential permit issued through the residential
rate of growth ordinance (ROGO).
Source:Code 1979,§9.5-124;Ord.N.032-2001,§1;Ord.No.046-2003,§1;Ord.No.001-2006,§2;Ord.No.037-2006,§2;Ord.No.11-2006)
The County maintains an inventory tracking system to determine whether or not sufficient
commercial services are ultimately provided in the market place based on the 239 square
foot criteria. It is reported the allowable maximum for new commercial construction is not
necessarily reached or utilized each year. It is believed the maximums are not reached due
to other constraints such as parcel size and availability, other zoning restrictions and
economic conditions.
However, some commercial development is not dependant on resident population growth
and should not be tied to residential growth. For example, demand for tourist retail is a
function of tourism activity; not a function of new household growth. Similarly, industrial
boat maintenance or marine research and development is not a function of residential
growth and should not be tied explicitly to residential activity. As well, medical space
needs serve tourists, workers and the elderly and this skews the empirical "per new
household"relationship which dictates how much non-residential space may be developed.
While the 239 square feet per household is empirically observable it is merely a correlation
and is not a causal factor in determining the demand for commercial development. From
an economic perspective, using a supply based correlation, such as 239 square feet, to
restrict commercial development fails to assess the market demand conditions. The
requirement to tie a specific volume of commercial development to residential growth
makes invalid assumptions as to the reasons and causes for commercial development. As a
result this requirement constrains, restricts and harms the normal market processes by
which the need for commercial development is identified and new space brought into the
market.
From an economic policy and market perspective there should be no limiting requirement
which ties a specific volume of commercial square footage to residential growth. Further,
to the degree hurricane evacuation is a function of residential populations, and not affected
by workforce population or customers, there is no storm/evacuation based need to limit or
hinder ongoing commercial development activity such as occurs with NROGO limitations.
Normal constraints on developability of lands would remain subject to, environmental
sensitivity, infrastructure capacity and stormwater management, zoning and tier-
management as well as all other LDC rules. There is no market based or valid economic
reason to tie development of non-residential space to residential housing growth. While
the empirical supply correlations exist, these are not appropriate market based demand
factors and do not take into account the drivers of demand.
Further: the NROGO shall not apply to the development described below:
Development with no net increase in nonresidential floor area:
Economic Trends and Opportunities 23 Keith and Schnars,P.A.
April,2012 Fishkind and Associates
Monroe County Comprehensive Plan Update
The redevelopment, rehabilitation or replacement of any lawfully established
nonresidential floor area which does not increase the amount of nonresidential floor area
greater than that which existed on the site prior to the redevelopment, rehabilitation or
replacement.
Limitations on the amount of nonresidential floor area which may be transferred to any
one site. The amount of nonresidential floor area which may be transferred to any one site
shall be as follows:
1. No more than a maximum cumulative total of 4,000 square feet of nonresidential floor
area may be transferred to any one site.
2. A receiving structure with existing nonresidential floor area shall not be expanded using
transferred floor area if the expansion results in a structure with more than 10,000
square feet of nonresidential floor area, except within the urban commercial land use
district, where a structure may be expanded to a maximum total of 50,000 square feet
of nonresidential floor area.
Source:(Code 1979,§9.5-124.3;Ord.N.032-2001,§1;Ord.No.046-2003,§3;Ord.No.037-2006,§4;Ord.No.11-2006)
The amount of nonresidential floor area to be allocated shall be limited to a maximum of
2,500 square feet for any one site, except for sites located within a designated community
center overlay area.
Source:(Code 1979,§9.5-124.4;Ord.No.032-2001,§1;Ord.No.11-2006)
Due to the effect of NROGO restrictions and vacant commercial supply constraints, the most
effective and easily permitted commercial development is redevelopment with no net
increase in floor area. New commercial development is hindered by floor area coverage
limitations, a lack of available parcels, height restrictions, limitations on trip generation,
and NROGO constraints tied to residential development. This effectively prohibits much
new commercial development. This leaves redevelopment as the most viable option given
land use and availability - however even this option is hindered by limitations to grow and
expand existing building space by limiting an increase in floor area.
With respect to designing flexibility to retain local businesses, it is important this take place
in the context of non-conforming uses. To the degree non-conforming uses will be brought
into compliance a high degree of flexibility will be required so as not to cause the
elimination of the business in light of other restrictions. Relaxation of existing
requirements should occur to the greatest extent possible where wastewater, drainage and
stormwater issues are met to the greatest degree and where land is located within Tier III
areas.
To the extent possible if these criteria are met a floor area bonus should be considered to
help increase revenue potential and offset the cost of renovation and compliance. This
could include elimination of NROGO constraints for existing business expansion in Tier III
areas where adequate infrastructure is available.
Economic Trends and Opportunities 24 Keith and Schnars,P.A.
April,2012 Fishkind and Associates
Monroe County Comprehensive Plan Update
5.0 Livable CommuniKeys Plans
5.1 Livable CommuniKeys Plans - Vision and Outlook
Having conducted an economic and strategic overview of the unincorporated areas of
Monroe County we have identified employment trends, strategic concerns and
opportunities. In order to make actionable recommendations which are consistent with
the desires and strategic direction of Keys residents we have evaluated the Livable
CommuniKeys Plans (LCPs) for the purposes of identifying where these plans might
intersect with the economics presented and the economic development direction
presented in the Livable CommuniKeys Plans.
Within these plans what we find are distinct regions within the unincorporated keys which
reflect their own set of unique local conditions and geographically specific economic
development goals (see Figure 13). These sub-regional characteristics are quite distinct
from each other and distinct from the concentration and intensity of the Key West tourist
industry.
The Upper Keys have characteristics which lend considerable strength to focusing the
definition of this area as a marine sanctuary, with recreational diving, recreational boating,
eco tourism, and marine research.
The Middle Keys are more residential in character, include high value vacation and second
home communities such which are similar to other beach and island communities in
Florida such as Destin, Marco Island, and Longboat Key. There is continued opportunity for
tax base growth.
The Lower Keys are in close proximity to Key West's main tourist destination. The lower
keys can be seen as a bedroom community to the Key West tourist workers. This area is
also more industrial and includes much of the working marine industry such as fishing,
boat repair, and tour guides. The Naval Air Station Key West is an important presence in
the Lower Keys. Facilities on Boca Chica and Key West conribute to the economy of the
area. There are some 1,200 permanently stationed personnel plus rotating squadrons
throughout the year. Per Diem payments to visiting personnel and salaries of stationed
personnel represent a 1 source of local income being brought into the area. This can have a
ripple effect and serve as an economic driver in the Lower Keys.
Also located in the lower keys is The Naval Research Lab. The Lab is housed within the
Naval Air Station at Key West and is located on Fleming Key. The lower Keys is the center
for marine research. The Naval Research Lab command includes the "Marine Corrosion
Test Facility which offers an ocean-air environment and clear, unpolluted,flowing seawater
for studies of environmental effects on materials. Equipment is available for experiments
involving weathering, general corrosion,fouling, and electrochemical phenomena, as well as
coatings, cathodic protection devices, and other means to combat environmental
degradation."
Economic Trends and Opportunities 25 Keith and Schnars,P.A.
April,2012 Fishkind and Associates
Monroe County Comprehensive Plan Update
"The laboratory has an unparalleled database for natural seawater exposure testing and
marine-related materials evaluation. It receives a plentiful, unpolluted supply of natural
undisturbed Gulf of Mexico seawater throughout the year. The tropical climate is ideally
suited for marine exposure testing and provides minimal climatic variation, with a stable
biomass throughout the year. The laboratory has more than 1000 ft of waterfront access,
natural "blue" ocean-quality seawater access, a 2500 ft 2 atmospheric test site, and more
than 14,000 square feet of laboratory facilities building space"3.
Upper Keys
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Figure 13 - Keys Planning Areas Map
Appendix 1 contains excerpts from the Livable CommuniKeys Plans provided to highlight
and help synthesize the integration between economic development objectives and
community goals such as livability and sustainability. Sustainability in these instances may
include environmental, economic and social/cultural aspects of the challenge of sustainable
living practices in the face of the physical constraints of island living. The goal of this
section of the report is to identify sustainable economic directives from the LCPs and
integrate these with economic development opportunities, goals and objectives.
3 http://www.globaIsecurity.org/military/facility/key west.htm
Economic Trends and Opportunities 26 Keith and Schnars,P.A.
April,2012 Fishkind and Associates
Monroe County Comprehensive Plan Update
5.2 Summary of Upper Keys - Key Largo LCP Findings
Commercial redevelopment of existing sites within the original footprint, with no increase
in building square footage is allowed and encouraged in the Key Largo LCP.
New high intensity commercial development is limited. Redevelopment which expands a
local business floor area is limited. New Hotel development is prohibited (this is a county-
wide prohibition). New commercial development greater than 2,500 sq ft on any one site is
prohibited. Waterfront seasonal housing which may replace water related or water
dependant uses is under moratorium. As a result of the highly physically constrained
conditions, lack of viable developable sites and regulatory prohibitions, most new
commercial development is disallowed in the upper Keys or highly constrained.
5.4 Summary of Middle Keys
The functional population of the Middle Keys is projected to increase by fewer than 100
persons through year 2030. This will translate to a need for approximately 50 additional
dwelling units through year 2030. The lack of developable lands and limited growth
suggests the economic opportunity in the Middle Keys is primarily support of the valuation
and tax base of existing developed property.
5.5 Summary of No Name and Big Pine Keys LCP
There is very limited new development opportunity on No Name and Big Pine Keys. The
combination of limited land availability, concurrency constraints and other restrictions
effectively limit new commercial development to very low levels if at all. The local
community does not wish to embark on a path that would bring regional users or regional
facilities to these areas.
These conditions point to the need to build sustainable communities through
redevelopment.
5.7 Summary of Stock Island and Key Haven LCP
The working waterfront and major employment center of the unincorporated Keys is
located on Stock Island. The resident population is highly engaged and supportive of
maintaining the employment opportunities associated with marine dependant activities
including fishing, ship building and repair, tour guides and other water or waterfront
dependant activities such as marine research.
Residentially zoned land is built out on Stock Island. Remaining vacant lands are either
Mixed Use or Industrially zoned.
According to the Stock Island LCP, the focus for economic development opportunity on
Stock Island is support of the marine industry, preservation of marine uses, and
Economic Trends and Opportunities 27 Keith and Schnars,P.A.
April,2012 Fishkind and Associates
Monroe County Comprehensive Plan Update
redevelopment of existing parcels with a focus on marine industry services, facilities and
support. Opportunities for marine related science and technology research are strongest in
this planning area due to the proximity to the Navy's Marine Corrosion Test Facility and the
Key West Airport,which facilitates travel.
6.0 Working Waterfront
The keys began a rapid transition from fishing to tourism beginning in 1975; declines in
fisheries and catch volume were pronounced in the 1980s. In 1994, the "Net Ban" further
diminished the fishing industry. Inexpensive seafood competition from foreign sources
made revenues decline for those remaining. Catch volume has declined further during the
most recent decade from 2000-2009. A transition of land uses through redevelopment has
shifted marine and waterfront related uses to seasonal housing and condominium uses.
The transition away from fishing and marine related industry is typical and well
documented in similar island communities throughout Florida. For island communities
however,this represents a shift away from the historic and cultural aspects which gave rise
to the community in the first place. In response to this change in orientation and loss of
traditional economic activity, the County undertook to study the working waterfront in an
attempt to help maintain and preserve the culture, history and economy of the Florida
Keys.
In 2005 The Working Waterfront Management Plan was undertaken by the County through
the South Florida Regional Planning Council and the FAU Center for Urban and
Environmental Solutions. Relevant excerpts from this report, as they relate to economic
development potential and opportunities are included in this section for review and
integration with the overall economic development strategy presented in this report.
The Working Waterfront Management Plan was not adopted and should be. Revisions as
needed, due to changes since then, should be made. The Plan should be processed for
finalization,with policies and incentives for encouraging working waterfront uses.
The Remainder of This Page Intentionally Left Blank
Economic Trends and Opportunities 28 Keith and Schnars,P.A.
April,2012 Fishkind and Associates
Monroe County Comprehensive Plan Update
Working Waterfront Conditions today:
The redeveloprrient pressure on Monroe County's waterfront has been well
documented, One recent study7 1' suggested that redevelop ent is accelerated in
Monroe County because the tourism and commercial fishing industries are actually in a
spatial conflict. The tourism industry's control of the waterfront has been characterized
as a natural progression of events resulting from the greater profits generated by
I I I -
tourist-based operations. In fact, the commercial fisherman were said to be despondent
about the outcome, but because the political process was often not conducive to
commercial fisherman, the outcome was rarely contested. The report questioned
whether comi-nercial fishing would be completely abandoned as a revenue generator
even though it has a long and rich history in the Keys. Currently, Stock Island remains
one of the last operational ports for commercial fisherman in the Keys, and it too, is
under enormous pressure to redevelop into the highest and best use based on today
economic environment.
In 2003, the Florida Keys Carrying Capacity Study was completed to assess the ability
of the Florida Keys ecosystem to withstand all impacts of additional development.56
The study mapped environmentally sensitive land, as well as land suitable for increased
development. Four guiding principles for growth management were identified: (1) to
prevent encroachment into native habitat, (2) continue and intensify existing programs
dealing with environmental and quality of life issues, (3) focus on redevelopment and
infill, and (4) increase efforts to manage ecological resources. Currentiv the findings of
the carrying capacity study are being used to draft the new Monroe Countv
Comprehensive Plan under the Livable CornnituiiKeys Initiative.
In late 2004, another report concluded that there is indeed a decline in the working
0
waterfront and loss of public access to the waterfront.17 The pressures to redevelop into
private residential and other non-w ater dependent uses are believed to be exacerbated
by the increasing property values and associated taxes levied on waterfront parcels.
The higher taxes were also believed to reduce profits for many marine business owners,
prompting them to sell their business. It was believed that the conversion to non-water
dependent uses may help to provide a short-term economic generator but the long-term
Benefits could not be guaranteed.
Finally, a study was conducted on the impact of a post-embargo Cuba on Florida's
marine industries.-" The study warned that marine facilities could potentially develop
on Cuba's coast and provide direct competition to the many marinas found in Florida
and its Keys. The development of tourism in Cuba was said to lie a priority of the
government that may 7 eventually impact the future successes of Florida's tourism
industry. One example of this would be a change in the routing of cruise ships, by-
Economic Trends and Opportunities 29 Keith and Schnars,P.A.
April,2012 Fishkind and Associates
Monroe County Comprehensive Plan Update
passing Key West in favor of a Cuban destination. Another is the threat that Cuban
fisherman will replace local Keys fisherman by offering the same Products at lower
prices.5" The studv encourages communities to consider the effects of a post-embargo
Cuba and to develop a strategic plan to take advantage of opportunities and minimize
-negative effects of such an occurrence.
Pages 24-26
Scenario 2
For asC�i."oiid scenaric,ive assunied thatapproximate1v half of the estimated 150 marinas
and boat vards in the Florida Kevs vvould be replaced bv residential development. The
additional ass Luriptiol Ls u4ichicle as loss of related jobs nuniberilic,approxiniate1v 400,zAnd
the buildiric, of "50 residential tinits, above and bevolid those that are otherivise
projected in the baseline scemuio on the sites of the converted facilities. These
residential units ivould accotuniodate an additional 1,.275 residents, and these, it is
assunied, ivould find eniplo�Iiient in other activities in the Florida Ke�75,
The results suggest that there ivould be a lon&-,terin increase in the orross regional
product, personal inconie and overall eniploynient in suclia scenario,niostIv as result
of the nei�v resident,., and jobs, and the inconie uid deniand for goods and services that
ivould result. Almost 1,-")00 neiv jobs ivould generate an additional $40S million in
personal income in the year 2030, contributing to almost 2'1 increase in the value of
oiqmt in imorwoe county.
Table 2. Scenario 2 - Loss of Marinas and Boat Yards
Variable 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Gross County Product
(millions) $0.0 $4.0 $18.0 $380 $63.0 $85.0
As%of County Total 0.01% 0.11% 0-5% 0.91% 1_4% 1.8%
-Personal Income(milhons) $0.0 $KW $71.0 $160.0 $272.0 $408.0
As%of County Total 0.01% 0.4% 1-2% 2.2% 3.0% 3.8%
FTotal Employment Uobs) 1 -1 46 304 668 1,104 1,488
As%,of County Total &0% 0."l% 0.5% 1.11% 1 9% Z6%
Sourcc:South Flovida Reoional Planninv Council,REMI Pohcv hvAc,11t 7.0
Scenario 2 illustrates the fact that vvlien one economic activity is replaced by another,
often the neiv activitI, competes sticcessfti,1117 Nvith the one it replace,-,. Although some
aspects of this sceii.uio could be refiried to reflect unique characteristics of the Florida
Kevs (for example, the likelihood that some of the residential Lu-dts ivould be occupied
bv seasonal residents), the general outcome of the scenario i�-oiild not change
significantIv.
Page 24 Marine Management Study
Economic Trends and Opportunities 30 Keith and Schnars,P.A.
April,2012 Fishkind and Associates
Monroe County Comprehensive Plan Update
In stinuiiai--�-, the loss of the entire coniniercial fishing iiadilstry and associated fish
houses without an-y replacement econon-Lic activities is estiniated to lead to a reduction
of approximately 3") in ecorion-Lic output for the Florida Kevs over a 25-year horizon.
The conversion of half of the niarinas and boat vards into residential ta-dts, with the
corresponding increase of the resident population, could lead to alluost 296 in
Page 25
FloiIda Keys National Madne Sanctuary Protection Act
The water sti rrounding the Florida Keys is home to a spectacular marine environ,ment,
consistina, of sea grass meadows, niangrove islands, and living coral reefs. These
environnient5 are considered to be equivalent to the tropical rain forests,found in other
places in the ivorld, Also, the marine environments found in the Keys support rich
biological conuntmities, that are treasured for their ecological, recreational, conunercial,
educational, historic, and esthetic value
6.1 Summary and Findings of the Marine Management Working
Waterfronts Report
The pattern o[ encroachment onworking waterfronts has been largely stopped since the
2005 Working Waterfronts publication. There is a recognition and commitment on the part
of the County and its citizens to help support the marine and maritime communities.
However, the Plan should be formally adopted. This positions the Keys to take advantage
of public support for the cultural and historic value of fishing and other water related
activities.
7.0 Monroe County Strengths and Weakness Assessment
Strengths - natural environment, marine sanctuary, aquacu|ture, marine research,
geographically distinct planning areas; established and successful tourism industry,
nationally recognized, national marine protections, stability of military presence.
Weaknesses - subject to environmental forces of hurricanes, hurricane evacuation
constraints, sea level rise, ocean warming; resource degradation in fishing productivity and
coral reef health; remote location; workforce availability, workforce transportation, high
land and housing prices, high cont of living; education; insufficient infrastructure in roads,
water, wastewater; insufficient raw land/ physical bui1dout approaching - redevelopment
only; redevelopment opportunity constrained by Vision plans which prefer to retain weak
industries or limits commercial development.
The list of weaknesses and challenges [acing the Keys in greater than the list of strengths
when examining the conditions from the perspective of economic opportunity.
Nonetheless, within the context of these constraints, there are opportunities to gain
Economic Trends and Opportunities 31 Keith and 8ubuury,P.A.
AprJ,Z01Z Fiybkiud and Associates
Monroe County Comprehensive Plan Update
economic efficiency, improve upon the strengths available and lessen the impacts which
affect sustainability of existing residents and businesses throughout the Keys.
Economic Trends and Opportunities 32 Keith and Schnars,P.A.
April,2012 Fishkind and Associates
Monroe County Comprehensive Plan Update
8.0 Recommendations
8.1 Redevelopment Floor Space Bank
The Keys are effectively built out for all practical purposes with respect to commercial
opportunity. In this case, build out is characterized by a lack of substantial volumes of
developable lands, combined with numerous development moratoria of different types,
floor area expansion limitations, transportation and hurricane evacuation constraints,
ROGO limitations, and a public sentiment which openly and actively discourages growth.
In such cases economic opportunity lies predominantly in redevelopment.
The inventory of hotel space is aged in the unincorporated Keys. The retail and office space
inventory is also aged and suitable for redevelopment. Industrial and office space generally
has high vacancy rates suggesting a higher frequency of obsolete uses on specific parcels.
Because of the traffic, utilities and environmental constraints facing keys development and
redevelopment, a mechanism or market to pool redevelopment volumes such as a
"redevelopment capacity bank" may be a viable strategy to facilitate redevelopment
activity. This would allow for the sale of abandoned and demolished "floor space" to be
accumulated in a redevelopment bank.
Accumulated or "banked" floor space could be sold by the "redevelopment capacity bank"
at a later time, to be aggregated on sites which are better suited and better located to
accommodate commercial and tourist related development. This would help redirect
development away from sensitive or underserved locations and encourage development in
locations where growth and development is encouraged. Table 3. highlights the vacancy
conditions by commercial segment within the unincorporated Keys, as of February 2011.
The generally small average square foot building size is representative of the small scale,
small business orientation of the Keys. There are few big box stores and few very large
scale hotels. This characterizes the Keys and in particular highlights the small and local
nature of business and commerce in the Keys.
The Remainder of This Page Intentionally Left Blank
Economic Trends and Opportunities 33 Keith and Schnars,P.A.
April,2012 Fishkind and Associates
Monroe County Comprehensive Plan Update
Table 3 - Current Vacancy Rates by Property Type in Unincorporated Monroe
County
Industrial 21.1% 10,521
Office 12.7% 4,666
Retail 5.8% 10,781
Hospitality 0.0% 62,824
Specialty Marina 0.0% 9,699
All Space 4.5% 14,404
* Includes Vacant and
Occupied
Source: Costar Inc.; Fishkind&Associates,Inc.,Feb.2011
8.2 Target Industry- Tourism - Ending the Moratorium on New
Hotels
The greatest economic opportunity throughout the Keys is to target employment segments
which are both large and fast growing. The Tourist sector which includes hotels, recreation
and eating and drinking establishments is the largest employment sector in the county and
the second fastest growing employment sector since 1980. Despite the Tourist
Development Council reporting a 16% decline in visitors since 2003, tourist and related
employment has slipped by less than half that rate. The industry has been buoyed by
occupancy in the increasing numbers of seasonal housing units. As a result, the percentage
decline in the tourist industry and tourist employment is less than the recession related
decline in Monroe County employment, despite a loss of hundreds of hotel rooms in recent
years.
One key step in supporting the tourist industry is to lift the moratorium on new hotel
development in the unincorporated areas. Allowing new hotel development will reduce the
pressure to build seasonal housing; is likely to slow the transition of population from
permanent to seasonal; and will support wider access to and more economically viable
uses for waterfront properties. This would support a second goal of supporting working
waterfronts by allowing more commercially compatible uses with existing commercial
waterfront operations. Finally, new hotel development will create a larger volume of
additional tourist related hotel, retail and restaurant jobs rather than the limited volume of
real estate sales and rental occupations associated with seasonal housing.
In addition, incentives to provide for redevelopment of existing outdated hotel/tourist
facilities should be instituted. Such incentives may include the ability to expand the
number or rooms or the building footprint. Some relaxation, where appropriate, of current
zoning regulations to reduce the cost of upgrade compliance is also important.
Economic Trends and Opportunities 34 Keith and Schnars,P.A.
April,2012 Fishkind and Associates
Monroe County Comprehensive Plan Update
Tourism in Monroe County is event driven and highly seasonal. Expanding the duration of
the season to off peak times will utilize existing capacity and expand the revenue potential
of the industry without requiring additional peak season infrastructure. Though off-peak
season is coincident with hurricane season, visitor evacuation times are not a factor since
tourist evacuations occur prior to general population evacuation. Expand visitor volumes
into non-peak season times should be a policy focus to complement development of new
and redevelopment of existing hotel motel properties.
8.3 Target Industry- Marine Resources
Marine research, aquaculture, marine related technology facilities and coral reef research
and preservation activities should be targeted for expansion and relocation to the keys. It
is recommended the establishment of a local marine quality/ marine research and
technology task force be created. The purpose of this entity is to bring together the civilian
and military marine research activities to the extent possible, to link the underwater parks
and preserves with sustainable coral reef research as relates to global warming and
develop marine based technologies through basic scientific research on flora and fauna.
There are numerous national and international efforts to protect and preserve the corals.
Resources such as these noted below should be taken full advantage of with respect to
funding and research opportunities and providing the anchors to expanding local research
and technology efforts:
• National Coral Reef Action Strategy
• NOAA's Coral Reef Conservation Program
• U.S. Coral Reef Task Force
• NOAA's Coral Reef Information Service (CoRIS)
• The State of Coral Reef Ecosystems of the United States and Pacific Freely Associated
States:2008
Under the direction and control of the Tourist Development Council the office of Eco-
Tourism should be further supported. This office should be tasked with the facilitating
communication and administrative organization among reefs, national preserves, local and
national parks, and upland or land based natural preserves among other
wildlife/environmental activities. Fully 20% of visitors to the Keys participate in Nature
Study and Wildlife Observation4. Advertising synergy, events, awareness building and joint
marketing efforts should be undertaken as part of the TDC budget specifically as it relates
to eco-tourism, reef preservation and joint promotion of national wildlife parks and
reserves. This group can, for example, also interface with environmental preservation
groups to find common ground for improving the sustainability of Keys living,
implementing the Livable CommuniKeys Plans, and developing event driven marketing
plans for econ-tourism and promotion of Keys Wildlife.
4 Visitor Profiles June 2010,Linking the Economy and the Environment of the Florida Keys,
P.74,Table A.2.4 Visitor Participation by Activity
Economic Trends and Opportunities 35 Keith and Schnars,P.A.
April,2012 Fishkind and Associates
Monroe County Comprehensive Plan Update
Enhance waterfront with more viable uses while maintaining or supplementing with
financial support for fishing and marine industries. Redevelopment in concert with
waterfront enhancement through the "redevelopment capacity bank" should be offered. A
three to five year ad-valorem tax break, where property taxes are forgiven for a limited
period during the redevelopment and re-launch period may be considered or alternatively,
employ ad valorem revenues or the incremental growth in ad valorem revenues (TIF
financing) to help finance needed infrastructure or facility upgrades to meet current zoning
and environmental standards. Financial incentives should be provided to enhance
waterfront properties. Without financial incentives there is little justification to forego
current income and undertake a substantial capital investment, particularly when limited
upside revenue potential is available due to restrictions on floor area expansion. Finally,
limits on floor area footprint expansions should be relaxed or eliminated. Financing
mechanisms such as the Community Redevelopment Area (CRA) should be explored to
support commercial development. Commercial development is highly encouraged to offset
restrictions which may result from Air Installation Compatible Use Zone (AICUZ)
expansions.
8.4 De-Couple Commercial Development from Residential
Development
It is recommended the linkage between residential and non-residential development
volumes be eliminated. The annual commercial development allowance of 239 square feet
per new residential unit should be de-coupled and eliminated. There is no economic
support or theoretical justification for such linkage and such linkage unnecessarily harms
commercial development and job generating potential. Further, all future new commercial
development and commercial re-development under these conditions would be conducted
and evaluated on an "Equivalent Residential Unit" (ERU) basis with respect to traffic and
other impacts. In this fashion the distinctions of commercial development by type should
be eliminated, such that retail, hotel, office and industrial uses may be interchangeable with
respect to development thresholds. This would allow for greater flexibility in
redevelopment opportunities of commercial and employment generating properties.
8.5 Growth Industries - Target List
Based on the employment analysis, the segments of the economy which experienced
employment growth from year 2000-2010 have been identified (see Table 4). It is
recommended that favorable permitting and relocation/expansion support be provided by
local government when companies within the target groups engage in planning or
proposals to invest or expand locally. Miscellaneous business services, the top
employment group, includes the following types of businesses: Legal services, Accounting
and bookkeeping services, Architectural and engineering services, Specialized design
services, Computer systems, design and related services, Management and technical
consulting services, Scientific research and development services, Advertising and related
services, Other professional and technical services. This group also specifically includes
engineering and research activity/employment as part of the marine research effort. It is
Economic Trends and Opportunities 36 Keith and Schnars,P.A.
April,2012 Fishkind and Associates
Monroe County Comprehensive Plan Update
important to note the strongest employment growth segment also includes marine related
scientific research which is uniquely suited for success in the Monroe County.
Economic Trends and Opportunities 37 Keith and Schnars,P.A.
April,2012 Fishkind and Associates
Monroe County Comprehensive Plan Update
Table 4 - Monroe County Growth Ixxdumtriem2000'2009
17 SPECIALTY CONSTRUCTION 198
16 HEAVY CONSTRUCTION 7S
83 SOCIAL SVCS so
ORGANIZATIONS
� 88 PRIVATE HOUSEHOLDS 13
Economically speaking, the Florida Kenn faces a host of daunting challenges. The
governmental and regulatory response has focused on restrictive and/or prohibitive
solutions. Despite these conditions, there remain substantial economic opportunities in
the Keys which build on its natural strengths. Embracing these strengths to a greater
degree will enhance the community and quality o[life in Monroe County.
Economic Trends and Opportunities 38 Keith and 8ubuury,P.A.
AprJ,Z01Z Fiybkiud and Associates
Monroe County Comprehensive Plan Update
Appendix 1 Excerpts of Livable Communikeys Plans
Economic Trends and Opportunities 39 Keith and Schnars,P.A.
April,2012 Fishkind and Associates
Monroe County Comprehensive Plan Update
Key Largo Livable CommuniKeys Plan
The area examined in the Key Largo Livable CommuniKeys Plan is shown in Figure
14.
Vision
"Key Largo will continue to be a livable island community where
protection and egjoyanent of the significant natural resources
support a unique sense of`plaee as the first island in the Florida
Keys. We shall maximize our future by preserving our nationally
recognized undersea environments, improve the visual character of
our built environments through innovative redevelopment that
enhances our quality of life, and strive to increase the sense of a
small coastal town ambiance."
Land Use and Redevelopment
1) Direct I,ttttrre orowtli to lands fliat ,tre most stiit,ible for development acid encotirige
preserviitiori of envirctiiineat lly serisitiv e kinds_'
Community Character
2) Preselw -rind eiih,arice itiipomnit conniintliiity cluitlitics \Vitliiii the pkitiriititr Me,t tliiit coo il)e
Key L�►rgo's citsual villitge style iiiinosplier itiicl titittinil eii irorijneiit Wt,t(l 111,11 elllliIllce its
sl,tttt:,ias the first island of the Mori& Keys.
3) Protect iiml eiifiiiice historic, etilitinil , i(l iircheolo icA resotirces t�ithiii Kty Liir#oo to
imiirituin the integrity of llie coillintiiti(y's tiliigt.te ch,inlcter.
Hou'sin
4) Nlitinti.wi the availability cif.iftbrdible liousiti{a find workforce lioiisitio For IoCA resicletits
NVNIc lireservilio the cliiir-,tcter of the cniiitirtiliim
Environmental Protection
) Preserve„ imiiiairo e. algid restore where 6ippropns ite. the ii;tttiritl re sotirees Nvitliiii t1le
pl,uitiiiig* ,iiezi by ltrovIdirlug Opel] slaiice.. lirolect.iiig w tter gwility iuid z.icgt.iit-iti'o zuid
ri7iii'M(a ilia ein iroillimititlll sertsitive I;twls.
Economic Trends and Opportunities 40 Keith and Schnars,P.A.
April,2012 Fishkind and Associates
Monroe County Comprehensive Plan Update
Economic Development
b} Encourage redevelopment and infill development that supports and enhances the tourist-
based economy of the planning area.
7) Recognize water-dependent and water-related commercial uses as an important source of
economic sustainability within the planning area.
Vallniscayne dal Park
.-
..y Tl.onN Key.La U
Evw,arglaades Natic�ai Park.
Y6
Eva r91a(kS. NMk> ar ., 10
Ky Largo F
��^y r"=+..,•-'fit :r :::,;�
M IVI 7 a.
Project Area
T ava+Yri ct
�1MM
Figure 1. Key Eargo Eivable CornniuniKeys Plan Area.
Economic Trends and Opportunities 41 Keith and Schnars,P.A.
April,2012 Fishkind and Associates
Monroe County Comprehensive Plan Update
Stakeholder survey results
l The top rekisons people live ill,. oi, owji a second hottle oil [lie islaiitl, cire the recreational.
oplacii°tuilities Fuld the 1lalul-al envii°onn1L nt_
0 't t' of the respoticleiiis work withiii tile. plannitm, cil"ea limits, 21�,;, travel tionli of tilt.
l)l iilti io ktrek;i to jt I s. itid rf". ttasa^1 scrtttli of the l lYtililing, kii'ca to ol's
■ 8,0%do most of their shoppim-) within the pkumingx are i.
a ic'cle, lades oil birth sides of US 1, hicyclelpedestriail tt"ktils acid lockll trolleys were the
top three public tnuisport illoii desii-es.
■ Safety is The ntinmber ow concern for bicvcle/pede.stnaii activity-.
Tile iesj)midejlts id littfiecl beech cic°c°ess, illttlti-tile likty e(l trails ,111(1 boll lai(iiiches ,is the
tol) till°ee recreati�omil fdiCillilts neeclecl on tile: islkttld.
ltie ticard obseio ed i11
1°ecetit years l as been the "Ielliolltiotl [li exi:'111144 Corliillerclat square footage fail one site alld
t-ephicement of ti-tat stlnare footage on ii sepat'ate site. Developers are exerc king flexibility and
civativity ill response to gai,owlh resl6ctions. Tile t'estiltitig buill etivil"011nleilt is bV no illeans ri;girl
and witli this trend III cominercial development and iredeveloptlletit, 1)lantlers will ]lave, possibly
the best oppoi"tttnity yet ivm kible in the Flonda Keys to encot ni4ge desired land ttse pkltterns.
Page 19
Land use flexibility is needed to allow the conversion, re-distribution, and relocation of
needed land uses. One suggestion to enhance flexibility is to allow the Transfer of Building
Rights to move between planning areas throughout the unincorporated Keys.
ether llailniil
opportunities are atso a vaitimie. rile "shuflliija, ui itooi' mva Ji'o l title site to atiothei' tliat is
llteil ticC:iirr1114g Lllldei"I' ''I C1CaCI l3rese:nts L)1174ii"tUilitles Im laud reclam.itioil and for retu-mg-, old t_11`
�Mxmdoiied rises. Developers in.ly be enccttiraged to drove floor ai°ea out cif Tier III SPA area into
ter III Infill ireki kind speirific illY tti I"oc.,ll are.Zis.
Page 20
Economic Trends and Opportunities 42 Keith and Schnars,P.A.
April,2012 Fishkind and Associates
Monroe County Comprehensive Plan Update
Strategies
er. Prcanrom i riill. doMgn flexibility and transfer of density to C"csrnmunity Comm
b. Preserve connrrercial cont'rrrnrance stators within sections along LlS-1
predorninartecl by existing connuenjal btrsinessc s and chsturll-Vd lands.
a'. Fnccr mge sun-setting;of intensive connnorci al uses within seclions along LJS-1
predurdnawd by naritrr l habitat or native-clorrinalecl landscape, relatively sparse
cleveloptnent and relatively I'ow businesses.
it Preserve ccrmnnercial use status f(rr CXi:tirr« w41101.frOut Uses that scrl)pOrt the
Untirisb;rsed anal working, Nvaterfront-based econont .
e° Give consideration to whether the property provides at unique or outstanding,
opporttarrily for enhancement of clesign. connectivity and odwr cNnrnunity gods,
especially along the LIIS-l corr'iclor.
Page 23
h. C'ornrrrercial retail high intensity uses that ;generate, irome than (me hundred and
fifty (150) trips per one thousand square Let of floor area shall not be allowed.
Page 24
Workforce Development
Another aspect of hmmin , IN nwsr he considered for the Key Laigo lrlsrrtnwrtg area is the fact
that a considerable l icentage of the loner-wage v"mier group is bussed in daily trorn Mia rni-
Dado County via public and privme transpor'ta t1ion. Soule local businesses (especially hotels)
provide daily van transportation lot- their employees. The primary reams of transil however is
the JCT Burs Service which is a contracted extension of the Nliarrni-Dade Cou nlyr Pu hlic° Transit
Sy stern. A tc>tal of 168.000 persons used the sy stern in 2004. averaging 00 persons per clay. The
service currently ruins hi NINI 50 however ar connector line: has been putt into plaice to complete
Me snvic°e to Key West. This mass transit system is expeaed to continue to experience ar high
level of use and, with as significant nurnher of housing units being constructed in south lianu-
Dade County. will offer an alternative to workers m6o, wherwise wourlcl requim housing in the
Keys. Key l.arrpo is c;xpaied to comicaw to Owe ar Agnifrcma contingent of lowor—inconle w aygo
earners communing Amu outside the C`mnty.
Page 40
Economic Trends and Opportunities 43 Keith and Schnars,P.A.
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Economic Development
ENCOURAGE REDEVELOPMENT AND INFILL DEVELOPMENT THAT
SUPPORTS AND ENHANCES THE TOURIST-BASED ECONOMY OF
THE PLANNING AREA.
page48
RECOCNIZE WATER-DEPENDENT AND WATER-RELATED
SOU
COMMERCIAL USES AS AN IMPORTANT I RCE OF ECONOMIC
SUSTAINABILITY WITHIN THE PLANNING AREA.
watel-(lepelldent lises include 111afillas, coillillel-cial fishing. boat hilliching facilities all(l headles
(Table 6) Watei-related uses include concession stands. ball and tackle shol:.)s and fish hoLlses.
Flotels all(I 1-cstai.11-allis that a1v located oil tile Nvatcl,while Tiol walcl (lepelldclit ol,1'elated as in [tic
the definition hew (Table 7).
This should apply to marinas, dive centers, interactive dolphins' exhibits, RV park,
restaurant, hotel, boat launch, and marine research and technology innovation centers.
9age5U
Retain Traditional Working and Public Waterfront. Tile i-apid cliang ov
oj)elailolis and slilillal tises to J)nvale condolill ill Lillis and nial-illas has been a Cause fol.concel-11 ill
[lie, Floi-icla Keys. A nionittwitl ill oil this tyl)c ot,[cclovelol)II10.111 is ill effect alld tile 111,1110,1 is hoing,
sitidled. Reconiniendal lolls Should be develol)ed to help deal Nvidi flils I)lictioniction Keys-wide.
Design Flexibility to Retain Businesses. Key Lai-go wotild like to i-etain its, castial walei-
I-c"lliatiolls aw nec(le(l lo lie][) iviaill 11'atfitiollal walcifmnt businesses, These new ciileiia will
use/sti'llettlles sections.
Page 58
With respect todesigning flexibility to retain local businesses, itin important this take place
in the context o[non-conforming uses. To the degree non-conforming uses will bebrought
Economic Trends and Opportunities 44 Keith and 8ubuury,P.A.
AprJ,Z01Z Fiybkiud and Associates
Monroe County Comprehensive Plan Update
into compliance a high degree of flexibility will be required so as not to cause the
elimination of the business in light of other restrictions. Relaxation of existing
requirements should occur to the greatest extent possible where wastewater, drainage and
stormwater issues are met to the greatest degree. To the extent possible if these criteria are
met a floor area bonus should be considered to help increase revenue potential and offset
the cost of renovation and compliance.
No Name and Big Pine Keys UP
Commercial development:
county. As of the clate o1 this report, the dwelling unit allocation ordinance allocates 49
total units annually to the Lower Keys. At 239 square feet of commercial space per resi-
dential unit allocated under ROG , this sets the approximate Lower Keys conrriiercial
rate at I I1 711 square feet per year (NROGO does not allocate commercial space by Keys
sub-area but clues so Keys-ivide oil all annual Basis). As pr-eviousl�, noted, the residential
allocation is subject to cliarige (usually- decreases)- so the c:orruirerc ral allocation could
poi
systeiii used to raid- permits for- allocations tinder NROGO is also cliitrige. The lio
currently structured to give a competitive advantage to development proposed outside
Big Pine and No Name Keys. This was clone to bolster protection of nattrral resources oil
these two islands, With the issuance of the Incidental Take Permit and adoption of the
IIC`P by the county. the point systeiii niav be restructured.
Page 13
�Plannin 13. Discourage it%v development ent oil No Name I ear.
Page 15
Coupled with the following NROGO provision: the following new uses or
change in use are prohibited on Big Pine Key/No Name Key:
(1) Commercial retail high-intensity uses that generate more than 150
trips per 1,000 square feet of floor area.
(2) Outdoor storage, as a principal use.
(3) Outdoor retail sales, as a principal use.
Economic Trends and Opportunities 45 Keith and Schnars,P.A.
April,2012 Fishkind and Associates
Monroe County Comprehensive Plan Update
The plan coiliponents, are as follows:
• Residential—Up to 200 neiv units over the next tAventy years.
• Commercial —Up to 47.800 square feet of commercial floor area over the next twenty years
in the U.S. I Corridor Area (south of Lytton's Wav) to be used for infill and expansion of
existing businesses. Development is limited to Tier 111 disturbed and scarified uplands. Total
trip generation over the tv,-vilty-year horizon is limited to the equi�-alent of 200 residential
units.
Page 30
Goal 4
Provide opportunities ' r axlevelopment and extxtn-
jb L
sion (?f exi.i0ing busines,s,(-)�s, and limited new non-
residential uses within the US. I Corridor on scari-
fied lanck
Page 42
Economic Development Element
Since 199", there has been a moratorium on all traffic generating development on Bil- Pine Key
and No Name Key beeause the segment of U.S. I that passes through Bi'v Pine has been found to
have an inadequate level of service (concurrency has not been niet)- This has not olil-y prevented
residential development. but has greatly impacted comiliercial development on the island (as
Dining the LCP process the coninitunty indicated that additional commercial development
should be oriented to the local community rather than the regional or tourist econonn'. NeNNT de-
velopment should be kept at a small scale to maintain the rural and suburban character of the
Page 80
Economic Trends and Opportunities 46 Keith and Schnars,P.A.
April,2012 Fishkind and Associates
Monroe County Comprehensive Plan Update
Stock Island and Key Haven LCP
Economic Development and Tourism
"Workina 1"'aterfrolit" B becoming increasingly relevant across the state, and indeed the countrv.
"Working waterfront" describes conuilunitles whose economy is intrinsically linked to the
waters and its bounty, as is the case with Stock Island. The Stock Island econoniv has not
trarisitioned to as priniarity tourism-based commercial retail ecorionry, such as that of Key West.
Detailed information pertaining to the economy and ivaterfront areas of Stock Island are
provided �,,'itlirn the Harbor Pi4e.sei-i•c�tion.Re�leiel(.)I)niepit and lntro-lslond Iransportarion Plan
completed by Wallace. Roberts. and Todd (V,RT) in 2005.
Page 12
Planning objectives for Stock Island
Stock Island
• Maintain affordable housing while providing a nux of housing options- and
• Promote the diversification of ecolionlic opportunities. Including siliall businesses and
Z7
home occupations; and
• Identify as conuirercial centei Nxdflilli Stock Island (i.e. not US 1); and
• Improve aesthetics, coiruner-clal site and vistial character of south side of US I corridor:
and
• Improve storefronts. signage_ and landscaping for commercial propel-ties, and
• Eallance the coilinit-tility identity as as "coininercial fishu' re" cone-inuirity, and
• Pro-v-1de space for a ia,orktirg waterfront and its supporting industries; and
• Provide and improve waterfront access: and
• Pro-s17 ide off-street parking for vehicles and boats-, and
• Provide Unproved public facilities, ilicludilig cultural and recreational facilities and
acti""ity centers such as libraries.
Page 17
Maritillie Industrial Uses
The largest concentration of inaritillie 1liclusti-v and collilrierclal fishili, ' i Monroe Coulitv is
found in the 142 acres of port -area on Stock Island. The purpose of the Maritime Industrial (MI)
district is to establish and coliscl-,,e areas suitable for niaritline uses such as ship building, ship
repair. and other water dependent manufacturing and service uses as well as other industrial
,activities.
Economic Trends and Opportunities 47 Keith and Schnars,P.A.
April,2012 Fishkind and Associates
Monroe County Comprehensive Plan Update
Since 1965, power generating facilities have been located on Stock Island. There were additions
in 1978, 1991, and 1999. There are two more additions proposed in the near fixture, one in 2006
and another in 2012.
Range of Employment Opporamities
An almost equal percentage of people living in Stock Island and Key Haven are either employed
or retired. HoNN ever. the top reason for people living in Stock Island is closeness to Nvork. Of
those employed. 67°,0 work in Key West and 26°0 percent work in either Stock Island or Key
Haven. The type of employment mentioned most frequently was "self employed business
the second leading employment tNve was -workin- I 11 I the fish' 1;� industrv."
owner, 11
Page 23
Recent development and redevelopment activities have been focused in the MU district.
According to the 2005 Property Appraisers database, 480,o of the MU zoned parcels are
developed with residential uses and 20Q,,D are developed with, coniniercial and office uses. The
MIJ district pernuti both residential and commercial uses. Since all the residentially zoned lands
are completeb,', developed oil Stock Island, this applies, additional pressure to rede�y elop MU
hands, for resicfential uses.
Responses, fi-oin the LIN-able ConiniunlKeys surN,ev indicate that 68°0 of the con munitNIT agree or
I ial aid con I e'strongly` 1 ma irta nano the ainottlit of land for 'lidtistr I ii lei ral activity.
gly agree with 1 1 1 �71 Z71
The survey and development patterns indicate there is a need to redirect economic development
and Growth into, appropriate infill areas and assess the availability of residentially zoned land.
Page 23
Strategy 1.3
Acquire waterfront property, preferably Nvith existing infrastructure to support coinniercial
fishing.
-legion Ireiv 1.3.1: Explore and purstie partnerships and funding sources f(.),r land
acquisition(NNRT)_
Action Item 1.3.2.� Lease acquired commercial fishing property back to a broad based
coalition of conlillercial fishing interests, such as a co-op (NNRT).
Action Den? 1.3.3: Require easement agreenielits for commercial fishing on waterfront
property through the develop ment/redevel opilient approval process.
Page 25
Economic Trends and Opportunities 48 Keith and Schnars,P.A.
April,2012 Fishkind and Associates
Monroe County Comprehensive Plan Update
Affordable housing affects availability of and access to workforce
The greatest fear voiced by residents is that trailer parks and mobile horses which serve as a
source of affordable housing will be bought and then converted into less affordable housing. A
look at recent redevelopment projects affirms these fears. Froin 1999 to 20 c,04. 5 ill 'or liotisili
Q-1
redevelopment projects have occurred, these redevelopment projects have led to a reduction in
the SITPI-)� of affordable housing units.
Theexistilm units oil Stock Island that seiiye as affordable housing for the low and very low
income residence are part of the Older housing stock. Marry of these wilts may need to make
improvements to meet the livability Standards. Examples of the livability standards include The
including I I 1 11 bellia maintained ill a sailitary
exterior, ircluding the structure being 'ii good repair while ZI zr ZI
condition so as not to pose a threat to the health. '41fetv. OrlVelf',Ire Of the OCCITallts.
The Count-v define,, affordable housing in the Land Development Regulations. The recuilatiolls
Provide various qualifying incomes for affordable housing ranging froin those irrakin'L, as little as
500o to as high as 1200,b of the median adjusted household income for Monroe County, As
construction costs, land values and the differeiitlatln� prices between a market rate and ali
affordable housing unit continue to increase, developers are naturally drmNii to providing the
higher end of affordable housinp,. At this time, new regulations f(,-)r affordable hotislira are bellIL)"
,drafted fear-review and approval by the Board of C Cnl ounty oniis.'s-loners.
Goal Five:
Maintain and enhance the contntunjt"l� character of a diverse
j,
and unique inived-rise commund" separatefrom Key West.
Page 33
Define and enhance the conumijilty idetitit-,(,-,
.4ction Item 5.1.1: Promote the importance of inal-Itillie Industries by incorporating the
theme of Stock Island's historic maritime industry in public art and design guidelines.
.Action Ircin 5.1.:: Emphasize maritime industries in all aspects of conuriurilty design.
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Economic Trends and Opportunities 49 Keith and Schnars,P.A.
April,2012 Fishkind and Associates