Item B1 Chapter 2 Monroe County 2010 Comprehensive Plan
Evaluation and Appraisal Report
CHAPTER 2: COMMUNITY-WIDE ASSESSMENT
1. Population Analysis: Trends and Projections
Background
The population forecast was prepared' and approved by DCA on April 4, 2011 for the
unincorporated portions of the County through year 2030 for the update of the Plan.
Population is identified according to upper/middle/lower (UML) keys. It is based on the
countywide functional population control total forecast through 2030. Functional
population is the sum of permanent plus seasonal population.
The seasonal population series is based on the Florida Keys Aqueduct Authority (FKAA)
data series which was based the "Monroe County Population Estimates and Forecast
1990-2015". This series includes estimates of seasonal residences, RV's, hotel/motel
units, campsites, boat liveaboards, mobile home, and other. DCA recommended using
the FKAA series for the purposes of estimating the seasonal population component, with
appropriate updates to the methodology.
The permanent population series is the latest published by the University of Florida,
Bureau of Economic and Business Research(BEBR). In as much as the County's Rate of
Growth Ordinance (ROGO) has been in place since 1993, BEBR population projections
reflect a ROGO constrained growth trend. This means permanent population growth
projections implicitly assume the continuation of the ROGO constraint and the effects of
the ROGO constraint are implicitly embedded in the history.
Population Growth Trends
BEBR annual population estimates for municipalities and unincorporated areas indicates
permanent population fell in the Keys from 2006-2008, with some return to growth
evidenced in 2009. The data indicates a loss in permanent population with likely
replacement through an increase in seasonal residents. Further, both sales and traffic are
trending up by similar magnitude suggesting there is limited growth, and no sustained
decline in economic activity. This volume of limited growth is consistent with growth
which occurs under the ROGO cap.
The data suggests a portion of the permanent population losses have occurred as a result
of the recession, a rise in foreclosures, depletion of affordable housing and increased
unemployment. Nearly 3,500 units have been foreclosed throughout the
1 The April, 2011 population forecast was prepared by Fishkind and Associates with support from
Keith and Schnars,P.A.See July 2011 Technical Document for full report.
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April 2012 Keith and Schnars PA
Monroe County 2010 Comprehensive Plan
Evaluation and Appraisal Report
Keys since 2005. Losses associated with some of these conditions may be temporary,
resulting in renewed growth after the recession.
As a decline in permanent population has occurred over the past decade, from 1990 to
2000 there is a real increase in non-permanent/seasonal replacement as evidenced by an
increase in the trend in auto-traffic volume, an increase in the trend in inflation adjusted
retail sales, an increase in non-homesteaded residential properties, and an increase in
seasonal population as shown in the American Communities Survey (ACS) during the
2000-2008 time period.
In 1998, 55 percent of the units were homesteaded. In 2011, non-homesteaded units
equate for 57 percent. Among single family units only, the non-homestead share has
risen from 45 percent in 1998 to 49 percent in 2009. For single family units, 70 percent
of the growth since 1998 has been in non-homestead units. This supports an increase in
non-permanent/seasonal occupancy, which offsets the permanent population losses.
2010 Population of Municipalities and Unincorporated Area
As illustrated in Table 2, below, for 2010, the estimated functional (permanent and
seasonal)population for the unincorporated areas of the County is 70,808 persons; 35,368
are permanent residents and 35,440 are seasonal residents.
The 2010 Census provides the following permanent population estimates for the
municipalities:
• Islamorada: 6,119 persons
• Key Colony Beach: 797 persons
• Key West: 24,649 persons
• Layton: 184 persons
• Marathon: 8,297 persons
Population Protections for Monroe County
With the understanding that permanent losses do appear to be replaced by seasonal
population, and some losses in permanent population may be temporary and cyclical due
to recession and foreclosures, if all of the recent Census or ACS based permanent losses
were shifted into the seasonal population, the resulting 2030 functional population would
still likely demonstrate small levels of growth consistent with the ROGO allocations.
Based on this analysis, a county level functional population series was prepared to reflect
these conditions. This series begins with the medium series population projection from
the BEBR medium series projection, PS156,published in 2010.
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April 2012 Keith and Schnars PA
Monroe County 2010 Comprehensive Plan
Evaluation and Appraisal Report
Next, the FKAA seasonal series through 2025 was used and to this was applied the 2000-
2025 Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of the FKAA seasonal series to extend
the series from 2025 to 2030. In addition, from 2006-2030, 70 percent of the permanent
population loss as forecast by BEBR was added to the seasonal population. Further, the
equivalent of 70 percent of the ROGO growth to seasonal population was added to the
FKAA seasonal series, reflecting the seasonal shift component not evidenced in FKAA's
original data. The resulting functional population is seen in Table 2.
This data series is the most reflective of actual economic and market conditions and is
most representative of the long term functional population outlook.
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April 2012 Keith and Schnars PA
Monroe County 2010 Comprehensive Plan
Evaluation and Appraisal Report
Table 2-Unincorporated Functional Population Series
Unincorporated Population Projection
Seasonal Replacement Series
Permanent Seasonal Functional
2000 36,036 33,241 69,277
2001 36,250 33,263 69,512
2002 36,452 33,285 69,737
2003 36,543 33,307 69,850
2004 36,606 33,329 69,935
2005 37,164 33,351 70,515
2006 36,466 34,019 70,485
2007 35,749 34,568 70,317
2008 34,788 35,550 70,338
2009 36,268 35,043 71,311
2010 35,368 35,440 70,808
2011 35,917 35,249 71,16E
2012 35,862 35,453 71,315
2013 35,806 35,658 71,464
2014 35,751 35,862 71,613
2015 35,696 36,067 71,763
2016 35,632 36,277 71,909
2017 35,567 36,488 72,055
2018 35,503 36,698 72,201
2019 35,438 36,909 72,348
2020 35,374 37,120 72,494
2021 35,310 37,330 72,640
2022 35,245 37,541 72,786
2023 35,181 37,752 72,933
2024 35,116 37,962 73,079
2025 35,052 38,173 73,225
2026 34,988 38,384 73,371
2027 34,923 38,594 73,518
2028 34,859 38,805 73,664
2029 34,794 39,016 73,810
2030 34,730 39,226 73,956
Source:Fishkind&Associates,Inc. April,2011
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April 2012 Keith and Schnars PA
Monroe County 2010 Comprehensive Plan
Evaluation and Appraisal Report
2. Land Use Inventory
Current Existing Land Use Area
The County includes the Mainland area and over 1,700 islands which lie along the
Florida Straits, dividing the Atlantic Ocean to the east, from the Gulf of Mexico to the
west, and defining one edge of the Florida Bay. The Mainland Planning Area (PA)
encompasses two national landmarks: The Everglades National Park and The Big
Cypress National Preserve and accounts for approximately 85 percent or 562,149 acres of
the overall County land mass. Federal lands designated as Conservation use comprise
99.8 percent of the lands within the Mainland PA.
The measurement of the areas in the County is not exact. The unique environmental
character of the area, especially the large areas of mangrove-fringed shoreline and
numerous small islands, many of which are below the mean high water line, makes an
exact land area with acreage inventories difficult, simply because defining "land" in the
County is difficult.
The calculation of acreages of land use types shown in Table 3 and Table 4, provides an
approximation of the land area of each of the land use categories, and is useful in
determining the conditions as they presently exist.
Table 3 -Existing Land Use by Planning Area (Acres)
Commercial 344.6 67.7 497.2 909.5 1.2%
Conservation 30,801.5 1,240.8 16,208.0 48,250.2 66.1%
Educational 49.2 0.0 30.8 80.0 0.1%
Industrial 332.7 0.2 38.7 371.6 0.5%
Institutional 147.8 0.4 55.8 204.0 0.3%
Military 3,307.8 0.0 0.0 3,307.8 4.5%
Other Public -
Utilities ROW 1,777.3 175.2 1,396.8 3,349.3 4.6%
Public Buildings
and Grounds 22.7 33.0 62.2 117.9 0.2%
Recreational 643.4 132.1 547.0 1,322.6 1.8%
Residential 2,612.2 199.8 2,240.0 5,052.0 6.9%
Vacant or
Undeveloped 6,849.2 2,97.9 3,045.9 10,143 13.9%
Total 47,437.9 2,144.1 23,388.1 72,970.2 100.0%
Source: Monroe County Growth Management,May 2011,"Existing Land Use"Geographic Information Files.
NOTE: Slight difference in totals due to rounding.
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April 2012 Keith and Schnars PA
Monroe County 2010 Comprehensive Plan
Evaluation and Appraisal Report
Land Area ofFuture Land Use Mai
There have been no changes in land area on the Future Land Use Map since the previous
EAR was completed in 2004. However, the County continues to review ownership of
offshore islands which may require digitization and mapping of additional offshore island
acreage.
Table 4: Future Land Use Acreage Distribution
7Aric!lture 18.8 0.0 1.9 20.7 0.0%istrictort D 22.6 0.0 19.7 42.2 0.1%
Conservation 19,629.5 500.8 11,566.8 31,697.1 43.4%
Education 28.5 0.0 32.1 60.6 0.1%
Industrial 403.5 0.0 0.0 403.5 0.6%
Institutional 87.5 0.0 43.4 130.9 0.2%
Military 4,258.0 0.0 0.0 4,258.0 5.8%
Mixed Use/ Commercial 878.0 138.6 1,004.5 2,021.1 2.8%
Mixed Use/Commercial Fishing 190.2 25.2 12.2 227.7 0.3%
Public Buildings 20.2 0.0 26.8 47.0 0.1%
Public Facilities 55.6 27.2 57.4 140.2 0.2%
Recreation 526.7 848.0 638.4 2,013.1 2.8%
Residential Conservation 12,148.8 312.5 6,075.4 18,536.7 25.4%
Residential Low 2,839.5 23.8 939.0 3,802.3 5.2%
Residential Medium 2,906.6 231.3 2,125.4 5,263.3 7.2%
Residential High 421.1 41.8 908.5 1,371.4 1.9%
Undesi nated 2,878.7 52.2 0.0 2,930.9 4.0%
Total 47,313.8 2,201.4 23,451.5 72,966.7 100.0%
Source: Monroe County Growth Management,May 2011,"Future Land Use"GIS File.
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Chapter 2: Community-Wide Assessment 2-6 Evaluation and Appraisal Report
April 2012 Keith and Schnars PA
Monroe County 2010 Comprehensive Plan
Evaluation and Appraisal Report
Amount of Vacant and Developable Land
There is approximately 10,143 acres of vacant land in the unincorporated area of the
County. The largest amount of vacant land in the unincorporated areas ( 7,054 acres) is
located within the Lower Keys PA.
The general trend for all planning areas signal that vacant land is primarily located under
the residential future land use designations: Residential Conservation, Residential Low
and Residential Medium.
As illustrated in Table 5 on the next page, the majority of vacant land is located within
Tier I (85%) with little development potential as regulated by the County's point system.
Tier II, III, and III-A comprise 13 percent of vacant land and this is where development is
most likely to concentrate. Also illustrated in this table are the vacant parcels within each
PA. The Lower Keys PA contains 7,054.2 acres (5,471 parcels), which are vacant, and
located within a tier designation. Most of the vacant land (89.9 %) is located in Tier I
comprised of 3,288 parcels (6,338.7 acres); 8.1 percent (1,724 parcels) are designated
Tier III. The Lower Keys PA is the only PA with 411 vacant parcels (1.1%) designated
Tier II, which only applies to Big Pine Key and No Name Key. Less than one percent of
vacant land (31 parcels) is located in Tier III-A.
The Middle Keys PA has 211.2 vacant acres or 304 vacant parcels, which are located in
a tier. Tier I contains 69.9 % (20 vacant acres), and Tier III has 30.1% (63.6 vacant
acres). The Upper Keys PA includes 2,158.6 acres or 2,983 parcels of vacant land
within the Tier System. Most of the vacant acres are split up into two of the tiers. Tier I
has 69.5 % vacant acres (835 parcels). Another 1,658 parcels (14.7 %) are located in
Tier III, these parcels constitute 316.3 acres. Lastly, 3.7 percent of vacant acres, or 265
parcels are located in Tier III-A.
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April 2012 Keith and Schnars PA
Monroe County 2010 Comprehensive Plan
Evaluation and Appraisal Report
Table 5-Privately-owned Vacant Land
Note: Percentage of Tier-slight differences due to rounding.
1
e
3,288 411 1,724 31 17 N/A 5,471
- 6,338.7 78.1 573.7 11.5 52.2 7,002.0 7,054.2
89.9% 1.1% 8.1% 0.2% 0.7% N/A N/A
20 0 284 0 N/A N/A 304
® - 147.6 0.0 63.6 0.0 0.0 211.2 211.2
69.9% 0.0% 30.1% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
835 0 1,658 265 225 N/A 2,983
1,501.1 0.0 316.3 79.9 261.3 1,897.3 2,158.6
69.5% 0.0% 14.7% 3.7% 12.1% N/A N/A
. 4,143 411 3,666 296 242 N/A 8,758
7,987.4 78.1 953.6 91.4 313.5 9,110.5 9,424.0
84.8%
Source:Monroe County Growth Management,2011,Geographic Information System file "MC ELU 511";Monroe
County Growth Management,2011,Geographic Information System file"MC FLUM 511";Monroe County Growth
Management,2011,Geographic Information System file"Tier 0I 10"
Tiers are:
I= Tier I-Natural Areas
II= Tier II(Big Pine Key and No Name Keys in the Lower Keys Planning Area only)
III= Tier III-Infill Areas
111-A=Special Protection Area(SPA)
0= Property does not have a Tier designation. Most of these occur in the Upper Keys and some are
right-of-way parcels. Some lots were not originally designated because of mapping errors;the
majority of which are currently being reviewed by the Tier Designation Review Committee and will
be designated at a later date.
Tier 0 is used for illustration purposes only and is not part of the analysis.
Vacant acres in all tiers after subtracting Tier 0.
Chapter 2: Community-Wide Assessment 2-8 Evaluation and Appraisal Report
April 2012 Keith and Schnars PA
Monroe County 2010 Comprehensive Plan
Evaluation and Appraisal Report
3. Potential Future Land Use District Conflicts
In order to understand the magnitude of potential future land use district non-
conformities, a GIS analysis was performed utilizing the Property Appraiser's data sets
and the County's data sets that comprise the Future Land Use Map (FLUM).
To begin this process, a matrix was developed, which assigns the Property Appraiser
Code PC), based upon its use, to each of the Future Land Use Districts (see Appendix 7).
A parcel-level GIS analysis, by Planning Area (PA), was prepared to identify potential
conflicts when comparing the allowable uses in each future land use district with the "on
the ground" PC assigned by the Property Appraiser. The results are illustrated in Table
6, Table 7 and Table 8 below, and in map form as Appendix 8.
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Chapter 2: Community-Wide Assessment 2-9 Evaluation and Appraisal Report
April 2012 Keith and Schnars PA
Monroe County 2010 Comprehensive Plan
Evaluation and Appraisal Report
Lower Kevs Planning Area:
As illustrated by Table 6, the largest number of potential conflicts located in this PA are
within the Residential Medium (2,766 parcels, 513.24 acres), and Military (371 parcels,
2,643.55 acres) Future Land Use Districts. Residential Conservation (321 parcels,
1,181.43 acres), and Mixed Use Commercial (197 parcels, 120.61 acres) Future Land Use
Districts are two areas that have the next most widely distributed potential conflicts. The
following Future Land Use Districts contain the remaining potential conflicts within this
planning area; Airport (4 parcels, 10.69 acres), Conservation (45 parcels, 90.38 acres),
Educational (1 parcel, 1.15 acres), Industrial (15 parcels, 44.96 acres), Institutional (4
parcels, 2.35 acres), Mixed Use Commercial Fishing (17 parcels, 10.94 acres), Public
Facilities (1 parcel, 3.04 acres), Public Buildings (1 parcel, 9.20 acres), Recreation (5
parcels, 3.83 acres), Residential Low (80 parcels, 94.58 acres) and Residential High (40
parcels, 14.87 acres). With a total of 3,868 potential parcel conflicts, and 4,744.8
potential acreage conflicts, this PA contains the largest number of parcels with potential
conflicts within the unincorporated County as a whole.
Table 6- Potential Land Use Conflicts, Lower Keys
-----------------------
Ai ort 4 10.687
Conservation 45 90.375
Educational 1 1.148
Industrial 15 44.961
Institutional 4 2.354
Military 371 2643.546
MU-Commercial 197 120.605
MU-Commercial Fishing 17 10.944
Public Facilities 1 3.039
Public Buildings 1 9.196
Recreation 5 3.828
Residential Conservation 321 1181.427
Residential High 40 14.87
Residential Low 80 94.577
Residential Medium 2766 513.243
Source:Monroe County Growth Management,2011,Geographic Information System file
"MC_FLUM_511';Monroe County Property Appraiser 2011,Geographic Information System file,
September 2011.
Chapter 2: Community-Wide Assessment 2-10 Evaluation and Appraisal Report
April 2012 Keith and Schnars PA
Monroe County 2010 Comprehensive Plan
Evaluation and Appraisal Report
Middle Kevs Planning Area:
As shown in Table 7, this PA contains the least amount of potential conflicts. Residential
Medium Future Land Use (66 parcels, 15.87 acres) contains the highest number of
potential conflicts. In the Future Land Use Districts of Mixed Use Commercial Fishing
there are 7 parcels, (1.79 acres) in Residential Conservation, there are 4 parcels (.64
acres), and in Residential High there is 1 parcel (3.85 acres) with potential conflicts. The
remaining potential conflicts fall within the Public Facilities (2 parcels, 3.55 acres), and
Mixed Use Commercial (1 parcel, .47 acres) Future Land use Districts. The Middle Keys
PA has a total of 81 potential parcels conflicts, and 26.17 potential acreage conflicts.
Table 7-Potential Land Use Conflicts, Middle Keys
i I e
Ai ort 0 0
Conservation 0 0
Educational 0 0
Industrial 0 0
Institutional 0 0
Military 0 0
MU-Commercial 1 0.47
MU-Commercial
Fishing 7 1.794
Public Facilities 2 3.548
Public Buildings 0 0
Recreation 0 0
Residential
Conservation 4 0.637
Residential High 1 3.849
Residential Low 0 0
Residential Medium 66F 15.869
Source:Monroe County Growth Management,2011,Geographic Information System file
"MC_FLUM_511';Monroe County Property Appraiser 2011,Geographic Information System file,
September 2011.
Chapter 2: Community-Wide Assessment 2-11 Evaluation and Appraisal Report
April 2012 Keith and Schnars PA
Monroe County 2010 Comprehensive Plan
Evaluation and Appraisal Report
Upper Kevs Planning Area:
Table 8 illustrates that this PA contains the second highest number of parcels with
potential conflicts. Recreation (409 parcels, 295.15 acres), Residential Conservation (592
parcels, 2,935.06 acres), Residential Low (669 parcels, 2,658.69 acres), and Residential
Medium (1,376 parcels, 291.87 acres) Future Land Use Districts contain the majority of
the potential conflicts. The Residential High (342 parcels, 777.63 acres), Mixed Use
Commercial (127 parcels, 181.44 acres), and Conservation (136 parcels, 698.45 acres)
Future Land Use Districts have the second highest number of potential conflicts. Lastly,
the Public Facilities (12 parcels, 30.54 acres), Mixed Use Commercial Fishing (18
parcels, 2.67 acres), Institutional (4 parcels, 12.73 acres), Educational (2 parcels, .556
acres), Public Buildings (1 parcel, 2.04 acres), and Airport(4 parcels, 18.67 acres) Future
Land Use Districts contain the remaining potential conflicts. There are a total of 3,692
potential parcel, and 7,905.51 potential acreage conflicts in the Upper Keys PA.
Table 8-Potential Land Use Conflicts, Upper Keys
Airport 4 18.675
Conservation 136 698.45
Educational 2 0.556
Industrial 0 0
Institutional 4 12.733
Military 0 0
MU-Commercial 127 181.439
MU-Commercial Fishing 18 2.672
Public Facilities 12 30.543
Public Buildings 1 2.036
Recreation 409 295.153
Residential Conservation 592 2935.059
Residential High 342 777.632
Residential Low 669 2658.687
Residential Medium 1376 291.874
I oa a1 Oa
Source:Monroe County Growth Management,2011,Geographic Information System file
"MC_FLUM_511';Monroe County Property Appraiser 2011,Geographic Information System file,
September 2011.
Chapter 2: Community-Wide Assessment 2-12 Evaluation and Appraisal Report
April 2012 Keith and Schnars PA