12/15-77 Demand Triggers & Phasing Validation MASTER AGREEMENT FOR PROFESSIONAL SERVICES
TASK ORDER FORM
Effective Date Upon Execution Task Order No. I L 57Z
404-630187-530490-
Client Project No. GAKD135-530310 Engineer Project No. E2Y17211_.
This Task Order is entered into on the effective date not above pursuant to the "Master
Agreement for Professional Services" between Monroe County, Florida ("Client')and JACOBS
PROJECT MANAGEMENT CO. ("Consuitant"), dated February 15, 2017("Agreement"). The
Agreement is incorporated herein and forms an integral part of this Task Order.
Services Authorized—Short—Term Development Projects—Demand Triggers and Phasing
(Timing) Validation
Client authorizes Consultant to perform the Services described in Exhibit A attached hereto and
incorporated herein, is Exhibit A is marked with the above noted Task Order No. and
consists of I page(s).
Pricing
N/A Time and Expense per Agreement and Appendix B to the Agreement.
X Firm Fixed Price of 49,930-00
N/A Other(Describe)-
Schedule
Services may commence on Execution
Services will oease by 365 da—ys .
Recommended: Appraved:
By By
rector f AIrports XasNE."777ureinty�mlnitl rator,
20
CONSULTANT:
JACOBS PROJECT MANAGEMENT CO
By
Witness Tit/ services Group Leader
File: USTRAPS—Monroe Counry Page I of I
Assisr, 00ti
-----------
SCOPE OF SERVICES
Short-Termi Development Projects.-Demand Triggers and Phasing criming)Validation
Key West International Airport
Monroe County Airports
Jacobs Project Management Company will provide the services as outlined in the Fee schedule and in
Ricondo&Associates, Inc's. Scope of Services, Short-Term Development Projects—Demand Triggers
and Phasing(Tirning)Validation,
Page I of 1
JACOBS ENGINEERING GROUP JOB HOUR AND FEE ESTIMATE
Monroe County
Airport:
Key West International AIrport
Project:
Short-Term Development Projects-Demandniggers,and Phasing(Timing)Validation
FEESUMMARY
BARC Si
Fours Fes DBE AMOUNT
Arlicle A Shorl-Term Dev loprnert Pro* ts-Demand Triggers/Phasing S 49930
Total Basic Services 1.uM strrro Fee 49,930
TOTAL LUMP SUM PROJECT 49, 30
DBE Percentage
r
L1111111 I RICONOOO
v"ey a tllt,i4",,,,)r ,,,,,
Short-Term Development Timeline
- Concourse A and Associated
Project Elements - Demand
Triggers and Phasing (Timing)
Validation
Prepared for,
Key West International, Florida
Prepared by In association with:
RI CONDO Jacobs
KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT XLY 2020
TABLE OF CONTENTS
SCOPE OF SERVICES .—.... ....................... .
Task 1, Update ,Avlation Activityrecasts.................. ....................................................................
11 Review of the Most Recertt`.oc aconom c Fore ast,-,,i.. . . ..,. . .
Vadid^ ', 0Yl3r1 p' .. �j+..r ..t .,., P e��1d ,f. tuj,�i�kr.1 �J.:�+i. f... "'s fv,l °t"', Sen
121 R e v 4 e w , act f t. fi i 9 s.kn the A idl na t n,d I �,��....,. ...._.
1.� or.,t r I _ w
Ir�2crp .. .. F�.. � ,r_sa:, Fr� ecxµst(t.Y 31010 �
1.3.3 Develop Intermediate Terra Forecasts i(CY 2021 , Y 31) and Complete Short Terra
Forecast Sensitivity Analyses—_ ........... ....4... ......_................
13 Update Annual Aircraft Operatlons rep s�s................................................................. ...............................
1A Establish Peak Demand Characteristics--, ...... ...... ,.
1.5 Update Annuai Aviation Activity Forecast Documentation.,.,..,...................................._.....,..............,......................
1, Meetings,__.,............................__.............,.......,.,..,,...,.a....,..,.,.........,.....,.......,,e .
Task
® Validate TimingAssociated r f ...................................
Task 3.
Prepare c i ..................................................................................................
Shoat-Term Development Projects- i Scope of Services
Demand Triggers and Phasing(Timing)Validation
KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT JULY 2020
SCOPE OF SERVICES
The Key West Internationall Airport and Jacobs Engineering Group, Inc. ()acobs) have requested a propis4 froryn
Ricondo &Associates, lnc (Ricando, to validate the passenger dernarld and aircraft operations forecast's that were
developed as part of the 2015-2035 Master Plan Update for Key West international Airport (1VW or the Airport) in
order to conf'rm the torn ng associated with the construclbon of Cor-rourse A and associated prisrect elements
The update of the forecasts wdl help def ne and artrculate ilhe need and lustification for Concourse A indfuidong bij I.
J
not limited to, the commercial apron expans,ofi: protect, by prcniecnng future passenTler and aircraft ciperaboris
dernand levels ln turn,this wformatuon will be used to update the triggers and/or timing of the short-term;ternimA
projects including security screening checkpoint, holdroom areas, outbound baggage makeup, baggage clairn,
aircraft apron area, etc The aviation activity forecasts will include a review of aviation industry trends in the wake
of the Corona virus pandemic. The forecasts will be coordinated with the Department of Airport's air service
development initiatives
This proposal also includes the preparation of an Executive Summary brochure and PowerPoint presentation that.
will present the revised projections of passenger demand and aircraft operations for the Airport, address the near-
term airport facility needs, and outline a preferred arrangement of projects to modern4e and improve the Airport,
The Executive Summary will also incorporate the findings of the Terminal Expansion and Renovation Project
Definition Document (PDD) that was recently prepared by Jacobs. The information Included in the Executive
Summary will be used by the Department of Airports to develop and maintain political,community,and stakeholder
buy-in for the proposed Airport improvement plan,
The following work program describes the professional services and technical analyses that will be completed by
Riconclo.
Shan-Term Development Projects— 1 Scope of Services
Demand Triggers and Phasing(Timing)Validation
KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT JULY 22
TASK 1. UPDATE AVIATION ACTIVITY FORECASTS
icno will update the forecasts that were included in the 1 -2 aster Plan Update to reflect passenger and
aircraft activity experienced at the Airport prior to COVID-19 and prepare activity scenarios for post VI -1
activity.
1.1 REVIEW OF THE MOST RECENT SOCIOECONOMIC FORECASTS
icono will compile forecasts of local and national economic activity, including those quantifying the effects of
C VI -1 . These forecasts would be used to understand and model changes in the underlying demand for air
service and related activity-Economic forecasts would be summarized forth°Airport.Sources of economic forecasts
may include:
it Woods&Poole Economics, Inc.
a al ics/Precis data
Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development(OECD)
International Monetary Fun (I
The World Bank
is The Federal Reserve
• P Global,Inc.
• The Conference Board
1.2 VALIDATE AIRLINE PASSENGER FORECAST AND COMPLETE SHORT
TERM FORECAST SENSITIVITY ANALYSES
1. .1 REVIEW IMPACTS OF COVID-19
Ricondo will document initiatives undertaken by those airlines that operate at the Airport(American Airlines, Delta,
Silver Airways, United Airlines) in response to the effects of VI -19 on aviation activity. These initiatives would
be used to inform underlying assumptions in the near-term and long-term forecasts Factors to be considered may
include,but are not limited to:
• Latest capacity reductions
• Aircraft retirements and supply of seat capacity after CVI -1
• Changes in passenger demand patterns in response to VI -1
• Domestic versus international implications of VI -1
• Industry consolidation or other actions
• Comparisons of recovery/response of carriers in other similar/comparable geographic locations(maximum
of five locations)
Sham-Term Development Projects® I2 Scope of servites
Demand Triggers and Phasing(Tensing)Validation
KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT JUL Y 2020
Sources for these data may ndude SEC if"fings, airl,ne press releases, published fleet plans, and guidance provided
by a dines dur ng stakeholder discussions An interview with the Airport's air service development consultant will be
conducted to gather the latest gu dance provided by airlines specific to EM
1a2.2 INCORPORATE SHORT TERM FORECAST (CY 2020 — CY 2025)
Mcondo will review and incorporate the Airport's separately prepared shorl-term forecast to provide passenger
pr9jections through CY 2025
1.23 DEVELOP IWERMEDIATE TERM FORECASTS (CY 2021 — CY 2031) AND
COMPLETE SHORT TERM FORECAST SENSITIVITY ANALYSES
R condo will develop forecasts to Support short (5 yea ) and rne,-'!1r,,,r �,10 year) planning related to COVID '9
response and recovery,The airport passenger forecasts will provide a range of potential recovery timelines of airport
activity (recovery defined as the return to FY 2019 passenger volume levels) to inform facility and operations
planning throughout'the COVID-19 pandernic and beyond. These forecasts will be devieloped through an iterative
process and allow for flexibility of inputs in consideration of the unprecedented and rapid ly-evolving situation.This
process, especially in the early stages, may rely on the application of broader industry estimates applied at the
Airport level,
Three forecasts of passenger activity will be explored to reflect the following recovery scenarios:
• V-shaped recovery scenario representing a quick recovery period from the point in passenger demand;
• U-shaped recovery scenario representing an extended duration of depressed demand followed by an
extended period of recovery,
• W-shaped recovery scenario where demand is negatively impacted by a second wave of COVID-19.
The duration assumptions for each scenario will be determined based on latest research and in coordination with
Airport staff, Passenger activity forecasts will focus on four time-periods—the base year(FY 2019), FY 2025, and FY
2030). Forecasted passenger traffic will be presented as domestic or international.
As part of this task, Ricondo will develop short term forecast sensitivity scenarios and establish how different
assumptions could affect the overall passenger demand at the Airport. Ricondo will also compete these scenarios
to the Federal Aviation Administration(FAA)Terminal Area Forecasts(TAF)for the Airport,as well as the Master Plan
Update forecasts,
1.3 UPDATE ANNUAL AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS FORECASTS
Based an the forecasts developed in Task 1.2, Ricondo will provide a forecast of commercial aircraft operations by
aircraft type(fleet mix)for the Airport for one scenario to be selected in collaboration with Airport staff. This forecast
will be informed by industry and other airline trends such as: load factors, seats per departure, aircraft types used
for various types of routes, published aircraft orders, known aircraft retirement plans, and aircraft manufacturing
trends.
Summarized aircraft operations will be presented for the Airport as domestic passenger, international passenger,
and commuter/regional, The forecast will cover the years FY 2025 and FY 2030 Three scenarios will be provided
high-growth, low-growth, and baseline.
Short-Term Develicipment Projects— Scope of ServIces
Demand Triggers and Phasing Mcning)Validation
KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT ICILY 2020
1.4 ESTABLISH PEAK DEMAND CHARACTERISTICS
Ricondo will forecast peak month, design day, and peak hour aircraft commercial passenger activity at the Airport
for one scenario Forecasts for these elernenta will be derived from the annual forecast of passenger activity, This
information will be used to validate the t ming of the short development projects that were included in the Master
Plan (Refer to Task 2)
1.5 UPDATE ANNUAL AVIATION ACTIVITY FORECAST DOCUMENTATION
Trie av atior,activity fo,casts oriii be documented as part of the Executive Sunrimary(Task 3), This proposal assume,
thal,'L12 technical report will be prepared as part of this project In addition to the Executive Summary, a Forecast of
Av�abor) Dernand PowerPoint presentation will be preps.ed to surnmar ze,the forecast of passenger and aircraft
operations demand for EM For budgeting purposes, it has been assumed that the Airport review and cornment
process for the Aviation Activity Forecasts PowerPoint presentation will incorporate two revision rounds, (1)
preliminalry draft for the Airport review and comment and (2)final draft for the Airport review and comment,
1.6 MEETINGS
For budgeting purposes, it has been assumed that Ricondo would participate in up to one(1)in-person meetings
in Key West and one (1) teleconference with Airport staff during the duration of this task, The meetings are
anticipated to last approximately two (2) hours and be attended by up to three(3)members of the Ricondo Team
(two icondo staff in-person and one via conference call),
Short-Term Development Prof- 141, Scope of Services
Demand Triggers and Phasing(Timong)Val dation
REY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT JULY 202o
TASK 2. VALIDATE TIMING OF CONCOURSE A AND
ASSOCIATED PROJECT ELEMENTS
As part of this task, Ricondo will compare the projected peak dernand(Task 1A)against the peak demand that was
established as part of the 2015-'203S Master Plan Update to validate the timing of Concourse A and associated
project elements Rpcondo's analysis will fo(.,-,s or-, the U.1low rig far 1A es/terminal processors
wecurtty Screem-g Checkpoif i Raoi�do will .onfvrn t��e t `�"ng fo,' the additional checkpoint lanes, that
were recommended as part of thek1aster Plan Update
Holdroom Areas Based an the projected peak hour passenger demand, Ricondo will confirm the need for
additional holdroorn areas This information will be used to validate the timing of the proposed elevated
concourse,
x Outbound Baggage Makeup,Ricondo will confirm the bi-ning for the outbound makeup expansion that was
recommended as part of the Master Plan Update.
Baggage Claim: Ricondo will confirm the need and timing for additional baggage claim devices,
Commercial Apron Expansions Based on the projected peak hour aircraft operations, Ricondo will confirm
the timing for the proposed commercial apron expansion,
Concourse A:Based on the analyses to be completed for the aforementioned terminal components,Ricondo
will confirm and validate the timing for the construction of Concourse A.
This proposal does ppt include the establishment of new facility requirements for the Airport. Rather,the timing of
the proposed improvernent projects will be defined by reconciling the requirements that were established as part
of the Master Plan Update with the new forecasts of aviation activity, Based on information included in the Master
Plan, Ricondo will also highlight the revel-of-Service (LOS) to be provided by the existing terminal facilities based
on the projections of passenger demand
As part of this task,Ricondo will prepare a development schedule to include a bar graph glowing the dming of each
project (including programming, NEPA coordination, design, and construction) and color drawings illustrating
recommended phasing for project implementation based on demand levels needs
For budgeting purposes, it has been assumed that Ricondo would participate in one(1) conference call with Airport
staff to review the timing of Concourse A and associated project elements The meeting is anticipated to last
approximately one(1)hour and be attended by one(1)member of the Ricondo team. -
Shon-Term Development Prollects- Scope of semices
Demand Triggers and Phasing(Timing)Validation
KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT JULY 2020
TASK 3. PREPARE EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
To develop and ma ritair, support for the proposed A rport improvernent Ricondo will prepare an Executive
Summary in a brochure format that will summarize the findings of the forecasting analyses, identHy the need for
Concourse A and associated project elements and incorporate the proposed phasing plan for the development of
the short-term development projects associated with Concourse A The brochure will also include the timing of
proposed irriprovement., and prer�,,,,qu!isau,
The Executive Summary will •ndlUde available/existing grapiitcs, profess on.4 Photos, infographics, and, mf ava lable
renderings of the proposed terrninai improvement projects to preserit the vision for fire development,of the Airport
I his proposal assumes that both professional photos and renderings would be provided by others,
Ricondo will prepare and submit an electronic file version in Adobe PDF format of the draft Executive Sure mart,
Upon receipt of Airport staff comments, Ricondo will prepare a final draft for review and comment, Following the
final review by Airport staff, Ricondo will prepare the final Executive Summary brochure which will include LIP to 15
pages(8,5"x 11" using 100 lb,paper)with color exhibits.Ricondo will provide a total of 25 copies and an electron'
file version in Adobe PDF format of the final Executive Summary, No hard copies will be provided for the draft
versions of the executive summary,
For budgeting purposes, it has been assumed that R condo would participate in one(1)in-person meeting and two
(2) conference calls with Airport staff to review and address comments on the Executive Summary- The meetings
are anticipated to last approximately two(2)hours and be attended by Ricondo's project manager.
Task Order Deliverables
• Aviation Activity Forecasts-Summary PowerPoint Presentation
• Short Term Projects Development Schedule
Updated Phasing Plan
Draft Executive Summary Brochure
Final Executive Summary Brochure
Meeting notes,sign-in sheets, agendas, and d:scussion materials
Items of Work&0-1 Included In Task Order.
• Establishment of new facility requirements
• Air service development analysis
01 General aviation projections
Air cargo projections
Development of Design Day Flight Schedules(DDFSs)
PreparaVon of an Aviation Activity Forecast Report
Coordination with FAA—This proposal assumes that the Department of Airports will not seek FAA approval of
the aviatton activity forecasts,
Financial analysis or modeling
Shrin-Term Development Projects- 161 scrape of Services
Deader d Triggers and Phasing Crimlngt Validation
KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT JULY 2020
Is Airport Layout Plar. ',AL'P", dravAng set rnodglficatlonS
* Financ,al feas',bility an.,�lyees
* Benefit-cost anaiyscs
Consultant Team Rules
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December 2020',,
FEE PROPOSAL
The Lump Sum fees (by firm) for the aforementicined professional consulting services are summarized in Table I
below. The attached budget table (Table 2) provides a breakdown by hours and non-labor expenses of the
following project cost summary:
TABLE 1 ® CAPITAL IMPROVEMENT PROGRAM IMPLEMENTATION SUPPORT SERVICES - COST SUMMARY
Ricondo&Associates,Inc.Labor S 47,080
Ricando Associates,Inc.Expenses S 2,750
GItAND TOTAL S 49,830
Short-Term Development Projects- 171 Scope of Services
Demand Triggers and Phasinq(Timing)Validation
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