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Item F3 BOARD OF COUNTY COMMISSIONERS AGENDA ITEM SUMMARY Meeting Date: July 27,2000 Division: Growth Management Bulk Item Yes No X Department: Planning AGENDA ITEM WORDING: Approval of the Annual Assessment of Public Facilities Capacity for 2000. ITEM BACKGROUND: Section 9.5-292(b) of the Land Development Regulations (LDR's) requires that the BOCC adopt an annual assessment of public facilities capacity for Monroe County. The Planning Department has prepared a 2000 assessment for the BOCC's consideration and approval. This year's report finds that solid waste and schools have sufficient capacity to serve growth anticipated through 1999. Permitted potable water allocations are marginally adequate, and Monroe County and the Florida Keys Aqueduct Authority are taking steps to remedy this. All state and county roads are anticipated to meet level of service standards, except for the Big Pine Key segment (Segment # 10) of U.S. 1. Since no reserve capacity exists on this segment of U.S. 1, Florida Statutes and the County's LDR's require that the moratorium on issuance of building permits for additional traffic generating development be continued on Big Pine and No Name Keys. PREVIOUS RELEVANT BOARD ACTION: The BOCC has approved assessments of public facilities capacity each year since 1987. STAFF RECOMMENDATION: Approval. TOTAL COST: NA BUDGETED: Yes No X COST TO COUNTY: NONE AMOUNT PER MONTH N/A PER YEAR N/A APPROVED BY: County Attorney N/ A OMB/Purchasing N/A Risk Management N/ A DEPARTMENT DIRECTOR APPROVAL: ctor of Planning DIVISION DIRECTOR APPROVAL: Timothy J. M DOCUMENTATION: Included x To follow Not required Agenda Item #: aa DISPOSITION: Resolution No. -2000 A RESOLUTION BY THE MONROE COUNTY BOARD OF COUNTY COMMISSIONERS ADOPTING THE ANNUAL ASSESSMENT OF MONROE COUNTY PUBLIC FACILITIES CAPACITY FOR 2000 AS SUBMITTED BY THE MONROE COUNTY PLANNING AND ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES DEPARTMENT. WHEREAS, Section 9.5-292(b) of the Monroe County Land Development Regulations requires the Board of County Commissioners to adopt an annual assessment of public facilities capacity for unincorporated Monroe County; and WHEREAS, this annual assessment is used to evaluate the existing level of services for roads, solid waste, potable water, and educational facilities; and WHEREAS, once approved by the Board of County Commissioners, this report becomes the official assessment of public facilities upon which development approvals will be reviewed and approved for the upcoming year; and WHEREAS, Section 9.5-292 of the Land Development Regulations provides the minimum standards for level of service of roads, solid waste, potable water, and educational facilities; and WHEREAS, Section 9.5-292 requires the annual assessment of public facilities capacity to clearly state those portions of unincorporated Monroe County with inadequate or marginally adequate public facilities; and WHEREAS, the annual report finds that sufficient capacity exists for solid waste, potable water, and educational facilities to meet anticipated growth through 2000; and WHEREAS, the transportation section of the annual report is based upon the findings of the 2000 US-l Travel Time and Delay Study prepared by URS Griner, the County's transportation consultant; and WHEREAS, the annual report indicates that the Big Pine segment of US-l (Segment #10, Mile Marker 29.5 to 33.0) has remained below the mandated level of service for roads as indicated in Section 9.5-292 of the Land Development Regulations; and WHEREAS, the annual report also indicates that there is no reserve capacity for additional trips on the Big Pine segment of US-I; and BOCC 2000 PFCA Adoption Resolution page 1 of2 Initials 2000 MONROE COUNTY PUBLIC FACILITY CAPACITY ASSESSMENT REPORT PREPARED BY THE MONROE COUNTY PLANNING AND ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES DEPARTMENT 2000 MONROE COUNTY PUBLIC FACILITY CAPACITY ASSESSMENT REPORT PREPARED BY THE MONROE COUNTY PLANNING AND ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES DEPARTMENT TABLE MONROE COUNTY PLANNING & ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES OF CONTENTS ~~~ljr~jrJIT~ ~ljr1J1r~~)fT ............................................................................. ~ Capacity of US-1 by Segment in 2000 ................................................................................................................ 6 jr~~~~~ljr~~jr~~............................................................................................ ;r Figure 1: Map of the Service Areas ..................................................................................................................... 9 G~ ~ W~H A~AL )fT~jr~ ................................................................................... 11 Figure 2: PAED Map .................................................... .................. ........... ......... ..... .................. ......... ......... .......... 12 Figure 3: PAED IMileMarker Chart................................... ............ .......... ......... ................. ...... ........... ................... 13 Figure 4: Functional Population of Monroe County 1990-2015 ....................................................................... 14 Figure 5: Functional Population by Service Area 1990-2015 .......................................................................... 14 Figure 6: Changes in Functional Population by Service Area 1990-2015...................................................... 15 Figure 7: Permanent and Seasonal Population in Monroe County 1990-2015.............................................. 16 Figure 8: Permanent and Seasonal Population in Unincorporated Monroe County by Service Area 1990- 201 5 ........................................................................... .... ..... ......................................................... ................... 17 Figure 9: 2000 Population Estimates by PAED ................................................................................................... 18 Figure 10: Projected Change in Population from 1999 to 2000....................................................................... 19 Figure 11: Boundary Comparison Table ............................................................................................................ 21 Figure 12: New Residential and Seasonal Units Permitted by Year for Unincorporated Monroe County ... 22 Figure 13: Comparison of Residential Permits by Service Area, 1998-1999 .................................................. 23 Figure 14: Comparison of Residential Permit Types 1998-1999 ....................................................................... 23 Figure 15: Comparison of Residential Permit Types 1990-1999....................................................................... 23 Figure 16: Types of Permits Issued 1990-1999 ................................................................................................... 24 Figure 17: Nonresidential Permits by Year 1990-1999...................................................................................... 25 Figure 18: Nonresidential Square Footage by Service Area 1990-1999 ........................................................ 25 Figure 19: Nonresidential Permits by Service Area 1990-1999 ....................................................................... 26 ~~~~~~~~A~jr~~..................................................................................... ~~ ~A~jrLjr~jr~~ .................................................................................................. ~~ Figure 20: Fully-Signalized Intersections ........................................................................................................... 29 Figure 21: Traffic Counts for 1999 and 2000 ...................................................................................................... 30 Figure 22: Historical Comparison of AADTs 1993-2000 .................................................................................... 31 Figure 23: Regression Analysis of AADTs 1992-2000 ......................................................................................... 31 Figure 24: Changes in Median Overall Speed on US-1 1992-2000................................................................. 33 Figure 25: Level of Service Standards Based on Flow Characteristics ........................................................... 34 Figure 26: Map of US-1 Segments ................................................................................................... ................... 35 Figure 27: Description of US-1 Roadway Segments ......................................................................................... 36 Figure 28: Level of Service by Roadway Segment 1999-2000 ........................................................................ 37 Figure 29: Changes in Median Speed by Segment 1992-2000....................................................................... 38 Figure 30: Median Speeds by Segment 1999-2000.......................................................................................... 38 Figure 31: US-1 Segment Status in 2000 .............................................................................................................40 ~~~A~L~ ...................................................................................................... ~~ WA~~~........................................................................................................... ~~ MONROE COUNTY PLANNING & ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES TABLE OF CONTENTS Figure 32: FKAA Facilities............ .............. ............. ...................................... ......................................... .............. 44 Figure 33: Annual Water Withdrawals 1980 to 1999 ......................................................................................... 45 Figure 34: FKAA Annual Water Withdrawal 1990-1999 .................................................................................... 45 Figure 35: Projected Water Demand in 2000-2001 ........................................................................................... 46 Figure 36: Per Capita Water Availability ............................................................................................................ 47 Figure 37: FKAA Capital Improvement Program .............................................................................................. 48 EDUCATIONAL FA CILITIES ..................................................................... 49 Figure 38: Schools by Subdistrict ................................ .......................................... ......... ...... ...... ........................ 49 Figure 39: Educational Facilities in Monroe County ......................................................................................... 50 Figure 40: Fall School Enrollments 1989-1999 ................................................................................................... 51 Figure 41: School Capacity & Projected Number of Students ........................................................................ 52 Figure 42: Preliminary Public School land Needs ............................................................................................ 54 SOLID WASTE FACILITIES ....................................................................... 55 Figure 43: Solid Waste Contractors ..... ......... ...... ........ ....... ...... ......... ............ ......... ......................... .................... 55 Figure 44: Solid Waste Facilities ........... ......... ............ ............ .................. ................................. ........................... 55 Figure 45: Solid Waste Generation by District ................................................................................................... 57 Figure 46: Remaining Capacity, Central Sanitary landfill............................................................................... 58 ~A~ ~D ~EC~EATION........................................................................ 5~ Figure 47: Parks and Recreational Facilities ..................................................................................................... 60 Figure 47: Parks and Recreational Facilities (continued) ................................................................................ 61 Figure 48: level of Service Analysis for Activity-Based Recreation Areas .................................................... 62 8 MONROE COUNTY PLANNING & ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Monroe County Land Development Regulations (hereafter referred to as lithe Code") mandate an annual assessment of the roads, solid waste, potable water, and school facilities serving the unincorporated portion of Monroe County. In the event that these public facilities have fallen or are pro- jected to fall below the level of service re- quired by the Code, development activities must conform to special procedures to en- sure that the public facilities are not further burdened. The Code clearly states that building permits shall not be issued unless the proposed use is or will be served by adequate public or private facilities. As required by the Code, the Board of County Commissioners shall consider and approve the annual report, with or without modifications. Any modifications that result in an increase of development capacity must be accompanied by findings of fact, includ- ing the reasons for the increase and the funding source to pay for the additional ca- pacity required to serve the additional de- velopment. Once approved, this document becomes the official report of public facili- ties upon which development approvals will be based for the next year. This report distinguishes between areas of inadequate facility capacity and margin- ally adequate capacity. Inadequate facility capacity is defined as those areas with ca- pacity below the adopted level of service standard. Marginally adequate capacity is defined as those areas at the adopted level of service standard or that are projected to reach inadequate capacity within the next twelve months. Residential and Nonresidential Growth for 2000 For the 2000 assessment, a new popu- lation model that uses a 1990 Census base data and Monroe County Certificates of Oc- cupancy to estimate and forecast population growth was developed by the Monroe County Planning Department. The new model is based upon the actual number of residential units built, and is therefore more accurate than previous models. The functional popu- lation of unincorporated Monroe County is expected to reach 73,969 people by 2000, a decrease of 21% from 1999 as a result of the incorporation of Marathon. The perma- nent population of unincorporated Monroe County is expected to be 39,273 people in 2000, a decline of 21 % from 1999 (based upon Marathon's incorporation). The sea- sonal population is expected to be 34,696 people in 2000, down from 44,329 in 1999. Due to Policy 101.3.1, the County's non- residential ROGO policy in the 2010 Com- prehensive Plan, it is anticipated that only a limited number of permits will be issued for new nonresidential development in 2000. The only projects that will be issued permits are those that have received a determina- tion of vested rights or those projects that are exempt from nonresidential ROGO per Policy 101.3.4. Assessment of Public Facilities for 2000 Two of the four facility types addressed by this report - solid waste and schools - have sufficient capacity to serve the growth an- ticipated in 2000 at the adopted level of ser- vice. The remaining facility types, potable water and roads, demonstrate marginally ad- equate capacity or fail to meet the County's EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2000 PUBLIC FACILITIES CAPACllY ASSESSMENT MONROE COUNTY PLANNING & ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES level of service standard in certain isolated situations. The status of each facility is sum- marized below. Solid Waste: The existing solid waste haul-out contract with Waste Management, Inc. provides the County with approximately seven years of guaranteed capacity. Schools: A 1998 study by the Monroe County Planning Department, in concert with the School Soard, has determined that there is more than sufficient capacity in the schools to accommodate all fall enrollments in 2000 and future years. Potable Water: The Florida Keys Aq- ueduct Authority's (FKAA) approved and permitted water supply proved adequate to meet the needs of Florida Keys water con- sumers in 1999. However, due to peaks in water usage in 2000 experienced by the FKAA, the South Florida Water Manage- ment District's (SFWMD) permitted with- drawals from both the aquifer and water treatment plant were exceeded on several days. A modified water use permit seeking additional water withdrawals from the South Florida Water Management District is pend- ing. An analysis of data shows that the resi- dential and overall LOS standards for wa- ter consumption, as set out in Objective 701.1 of the Monroe County Year 2010 Comprehensive Plan, are being met. It is anticipated that sufficient potable water will be available under existing permits for the remainder of the year. Monroe County al- lows development to continue if adequate potable water supply, treatment and distri- bution are available to support the devel- opment at these adopted level of service standards. However, due to the peaks in water us- age observed by the FKAA, and the con- straints of the FKAA permits for both water treatment plant capacity and withdrawals from the Siscayne Aquifer, potable water is considered marginally adequate until such a time as the FKAA permits are renewed at higher levels. Another beautiful day in the Keys... 2000 PuBLIC FACILITIES CAPACITY ASSESSMENT EXECUTIVE SUMMARY MONROE COUNTY PLANNING & ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES The adopted level of service Regulations, a moratorium on new devel- Roads: opment will be maintained until the level of (LOS) standard for US-1 is LOS C. Based service is improved. on the findings of the 2000 US-1 Arterial Travel Time and Delay Study for Monroe There are an additional nine roadway County, as prepared by URS Greiner Con- segments with a "marginally adequate" level sultants, the overall 2000 level of service of service, but all have adequate reserve for US-1 is LOS C. The following table capacity. Development activities in these shows the available capacity of US-1 by areas will be closely monitored to minimize segment. the possibility for further degredation in the level of service. Capacity of US-l by Segment in 2000 County roads are subject to a lower standard (LOS D) than US-1. Mile Marker 2000 Based on the analysis found in the # SeQment Range LOS 2000 Status Technical Document of the Monroe 1 Stock Island 4-5 B Adeauate County Year 2010 Comprehensive 2 Boca Chica 5-9 A Adeauate 3 Bia Coooitt 9-10.5 C MARGINAL Plan, all County roads are operating 4 Saddlebunch 10.5-16.5 B Adeauate at or above LOS D. 5 Suaarloaf 16.5-20.5 C MARGINAL 6 Cudioe 20.5-23 A Adeauate 7 Summerland 23-25 B Adeouate Overall, most public facilities con- 8 Ramrod 25-27.5 A Adeauate tinue to be adequate; however de- 9 Torch 27.5-29.5 A Adeauate mands on these facilities continue to 10 Bia Pine 29.5-33 D INADEQUATE grow. The Growth Management Divi- 11 Bahia Honda 33-40 B Adeauate sion is committed to monitoring 12 7-Mile Bridae 40-47 A Adeauate changes in public facility demand and 13 Marathon 47-54 A Adeauate 14 G rassv 54-60.5 C MARGINAL responding to changes in consump- 15 Duck 60.5-63 C MARGINAL tion patterns. The ability to coordinate 16 Lona 63-73 B Adeauate with public facility providers and other 17 L. Matecumbe 73-77.5 C MARGINAL municipalities in the Keys will become 18 Tea Table 77.5-79.5 C MARGINAL more and more critical as we strive to 19 U. Matecumbe 79.5-84 C MARGINAL maintain the quality of life we all en- 20 Windlev 84-86 B Adeauate joy. 21 Plantation 86-91.5 C MARGINAL 22 Tavernier 91.5-99.5 A Adeauate 23 Larao 99.5-106 A Adeauate 24 Cross 106-112.5 C MARGINAL County regulations allow development activities to continue in "areas of inadequate facility capacity" provided traffic speeds do not fall below the standard by more than five percent. At this time, Big Pine Key has no reserve capacity. Thus, pursuant to Sec- tion 9.5-292(b) of the Land Development EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2000 PUBLIC FACILITIES CAPACITY ASSESSMENT MONROE COUNTY PLANNING & ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES INTRODUCTION About This Report This report is the annual assessment of public facilities capacity mandated by Sec- tion 9.5-292 of the Monroe County Land Development Regulations (hereafter re- ferred to as "the Code"). The State of Florida requires all local jurisdictions to adopt regulations ensuring "concurrency". Concurrency means "that the necessary public facilities and services to maintain the adopted level of service standards are avail- able when the impacts of development oc- cur" (Chapter 9J-5 of the Florida Adminis- trative Code). In other words, local govem- ments must establish regulations to ensure that public facilities and services which are needed to support development are avail- able concurrent with the impacts of devel- opment. In Monroe County, these regula- tions are contained within Section 9.5-292 of the Code. Section 9.5-292, titled Adequate facili- ties and development review procedures, contains two main sets of requirements: the minimum service standards for the four pri- mary public facilities (roads, solid waste, potable water, schools), and an annual as- sessment process to determine the avail- able capacity of these public facilities. In addition, Section 9.5-292 includes an equi- table procedure for issuing permits when the rate of growth is likely to outpace the cur- rent capacity of these public facilities. Section 9.5-292 also requires the Direc- tor of Planning to prepare an annual report to the Board of County Commissioners on the capacity of available public facilities. This report must determine the potential amount of residential and nonresidential growth expected in the upcoming year, and make an assessment of how well the roads, solid waste facilities, water supply, and schools will accommodate that growth. The report has a one-year planning horizon, or only considers potential growth and public facility capacity for the next twelve months. In addition, the report must identify areas of Unincorporated Monroe County with only marginal and/or inadequate capacity for some or all public facilities. In the event that some or all public fa- cilities have fallen or are projected to fall below the level of service (LOS) standards required by the Code, development activi- ties must conform to special procedures to ensure that the public facilities are not fur- ther burdened. The Code clearly states that building permits shall not be issued unless the proposed use is or will be served by adequate public or private facilities. Board Action Required Section 9.5-292(b)(4) requires the County Commission to consider this report and approve its findings either with or with- out modifications. The County Commission cannot act to increase development capac- ity beyond that demonstrated in this report without making specific findings of fact as to the reasons for the increase, and identi- fying the source of funds to be used to pay for the additional capacity. Once approved by the County Commis- sion, this document becomes the official as- sessment of public facilities upon which de- velopment approvals will be based for the next year. Public Facility Standards Section 9.5-292(a) of the Code pertains to the minimum standards for public facili- ties. It states, "After February 28, 1988, all 2000 PUBLIC FACILITIES CAPACITY ASSESSMENT PAGE 7 INTRODUCTION MONROE COUNTY PLANNING & ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES development or land shall be served by adequate public facilities in accordance with the following standards:" (1) Roads: a. County Road 905 within three (3) miles of a parcel proposed for develop- ment shall have sufficient available ca- pacity to operate at level of service D as measured on an annual average daily traffic (AADT) basis at all intersec- tion and/or roadway segments. US-1 shall have sufficient available capacity to operate at level of service C on an overall basis as measured by the US-1 Level of Service Task Force Methodol- ogy. In addition, the segment or seg- ments of US-1 , as identified in the US- 1 Level of Service Task Force Method- ology, which would be directly impacted by a proposed development's access to US-1 , shall have sufficient available capacity to operate at level of service C as measured by the US-1 Level of Service Task Force Methodology. b. All secondary roads where traffic is entering or leaving a development or will have direct access shall have suffi- cient available capacity to operate at level of service D as measured on an annual average daily traffic (AADT) basis. c. In areas which are served by inad- equate transportation facilities on US- 1, development may be approved pro- vided that the development in combi- nation with all other development will not decrease travel speeds by more than five (5) percent below level of ser- vice C, as measured by the US-1 Level of Service Task Force Methodology. (2) Solid Waste: Sufficient capacity shall be available at a solid waste disposal site to accom- modate all existing and approved de- velopment for a period of at least three (3) years from the projected date of completion of the proposed develop- ment or use. The Monroe County Solid Waste and Resource Recovery Author- ity may enter into agreements, includ- ing agreements under section 163.01, Florida Statutes, to dispose of solid waste outside Monroe County. (3) Potable Water: Sufficient potable water from an ap- proved and permitted source shall be available to satisfy the projected water needs of a proposed development, or use. Approved and permitted sources shall include cisterns, wells, FKAA dis- tribution systems, individual water con- densation systems, and any other sys- tem which complies with the Florida standards for potable water. (4) Schools: Adequate school classroom capacity shall be available to accommodate all school age children to be generated by a proposed development or use. These are the four primary public facili- ties which must be monitored for adequate capacity according to the Code. The avail- able capacity for each of these facilities may be either sufficient to accommodate pro- jected growth over the next year, margin- ally adequate, or inadequate. In situations where public facilities serving an area are projected to be only marginally adequate or inadequate over the next year, the Code sets out a review procedure to be followed when issuing development permits in that area. The Code states that "the county shall not approve applications for development INTRODUCTION 2000 PUBLIC FACILITIES CAPACITY AsSESSMENT PAGE 8 MONROE COUNTY PLANNING & ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES in areas of the county which are served by inadequate facilities identified in the annual adequate facilities (Public Facility Capacity Assessment) report, except the county may approve development that will have no re- duction in the capacity of the facility or where the developer agrees to increase the level of service of the facility to the adopted level of service standard." The Code goes on to state that "in areas of marginal facility ca- pacity as identified in the current annual adequate facilities report, the county shall either deny the application or condition the approval so that the level of service stan- dard is not violated." The determination of an additional development's impact on ex- isting public facilities in areas with marginal or inadequate capacity is determined by a "facilities impact report" which must be sub- mitted with a development application. Figure 1: Map of the Service Areas (f The Upper Keys ~ MM 112-MM 91 ~ ~ " "\ 'i> 'l> The Middle Keys MM 91-MM 47 (J .l. ... . .... ~ Service Areas Section 9.5-292(b)(2) of the Code di- vides Unincorporated Monroe County into three service areas for the purposes of as- sessing potential growth and how public facilities can accommodate that growth. The boundaries mentioned in the Code have been revised to account for recent in- corporations. The map below shows the three service areas of the Keys as they are currently recognized. The Upper Keys service area includes all Unincorporated Monroe County north of the Tavernier Creek Bridge. The Middle Keys includes the area of Unincorporated Monroe County between the Seven Mile Bridge and the Tavernier Creek Bridge. The Lower Keys is Unincorporated Monroe County south of the Seven Mile Bridge. Unfortunately, the data available on ... ._ 0 Q '" ~ "8 GCfp 0..,. '", f , oQ The Lower Keys MM 47-MM 4 Source: The Monroe County GIS Department 2000 PuBLIC FACILITIES CAPACITY ASSESSMENT PAGE 9 INTRODUCTION o MONROE COUNTY PLANNING & ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES population, permitting, and public facilities does not always conform to the above boundaries for the Upper, Middle, and Lower Keys. Additionally, due to the recent incor- porations of Islamorada and Marathon (which are excluded from this assessment where specified) these boundaries are no longer valid for unincorporated Monroe County. This report makes use of the best available data, aggregated as closely to the boundaries shown in Figure 1 as possible. Previous Board Action Due to the unavailability of any reserve capacity for traffic on US-1 on Big Pine Key, the County was required to impose a mora- torium in 1995 on any new development on Big Pine Key. In December 1997, as a re- sult of a change in the methodology used to determine level of service, the morato- rium on Big Pine Key was lifted. However, the results of the 1999 Travel Time and Delay Study indicated that the segment of US-1 through Big Pine Key once again fell below the adopted LOS standard. Due in part to the re-timing of the intersection of US-1 and Key Deer Boulevard, the level of service on the Big Pine segment of US-1 has improved in 2000. However, the level of service still remains below the adopted standard. Since Big Pine Key does not have any reserve capacity for traffic, the morato- rium must continue. The rationale for a moratorium is from Section 9.5-292(b) of the Land Develop- ment Regulations, which states, "...the County shall not approve applications for development in areas of the County which are served by inadequate facilities as iden- tified in the annual adequate facilities re- port." The Planning and Environmental Re- sources Department is now engaged in a master planning process with the citizens of Big Pine Key to identify possible solu- tions to the traffic problems in the commu- nity. The Livable CommuiKeys Program is directed at finding ways of improving the level of service on US-1 so that the building moratorium on Big Pine Key may be lifted. Areas of Critical County Concern At the County Commission's discretion, areas with marginally adequate facilities may be designated as Areas of Critical County Concern (ACCC), pursuant to Sec- tions 9.5-473 and 9.5-473.1 of the Code. The rationale behind this designation is to assure that development in ACCC areas does not impact existing public facilities to the extent that development must be halted in the area. Should the Board initiate theACCC des- ignation process, the Development Review Committee and Planning Commission must review the proposed designation. Section 9.5-473(c) requires the designation to in- clude II Specific findings regarding the pur- pose of the designation, the time schedule for the planning effort to be implemented, identification of the sources of funding for the planning and potential implementing mechanisms, delineation of a work program, a schedule for the work program and the appointment of an advisory committee, if appropriate. II INTRODUCTION 2000 PUBLIC FACILITIES CAPACITY ASSESSMENT PAGE 10 MONROE COUNTY PLANNING & ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES GROWTH ANALYSIS This section of the report examines the growth of Monroe County over the last year. This analysis considers the changes in population, the number of residential build- ing permits issued, and the amount of non- residential floor area (square footage) af- fected by building permits. Growth trends will be examined for both the unincorporated as well as the incorporated portions of the County. Population Composition There are three different measurements of population in Monroe County: the func- tional population, the permanent population, and the seasonal population. The capacity of most public facilities is designed based on potential peak demand. To help assess peak demand, the permanent and seasonal populations are often combined to give a "functional" population, or the maximum population demanding services. Permanent residents spend most or all of the year in the County, while the seasonal population includes seasonal residents and the tourist population. The seasonal popu- lation includes the number of seasonal resi- dents, the number of people staying in ho- tels, motels, vacation rentals, campsites, recreational vehicles, live aboard vessels, and those staying with friends and relatives. It is important to remember that perma- nent population figures are for the entire cal- endar year, while the seasonal population figures used here is the number of seasonal residents and visitors in the Keys on any given evening. Seasonal population figures are not the total number of seasonal resi- dents or visitors in the county over the cal- endar year, but the estimated number who stay on any given night. Recent studies by the Tourist Develop- ment Council indicate that Monroe County hosts around three million visitors a year, however not of all these people are in the Keys on the same evening. Peak seasonal population figures represent the number of people who could stay on any given evening based upon peak occupancy rates, and therefore represent the peak demand which could be placed on public facilities from seasonal visitors on any given evening. When the peak seasonal population fig- ures are combined with the permanent resi- dent population, the result is the functional population. PAEDs PAEDs, or Planning Area Enumeration Districts, are the basic unit of geographical analysis used by the Planning and Environ- mental Resources Department. The PAEDs are a combination of the "planning areas" utilized by the Planning Department in the early 1980s and the US Census Bureau's "enumeration districts". These two levels of analysis were combined in 1987 for ease of use. Since most PAEDs follow island boundaries, they can be aggregated to match most service districts for public fa- cilities. There are a total of twenty-two (22) PAEDs in Unincorporated Monroe County. The City of Key West (including northern Stock island) is not contained within any PAED boundaries. The City of Key Colony Beach is contained within the geographic area of PAED 8, but is not included with the PAED population figures. The new City of Marathon encompasses PAEDs 7,8, & 9, 2000 PUBLIC F ACILTlTlES CAPACITY ASSESSMENT PAGE 11 GROWTH ANALYSIS ~..'... VI MONROE COUNTY PLANNING & ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES and its population is contained within Unincorporated Monroe County until 2000. The City of Layton falls within PAED 11, but its population is disaggregated from Unincorporated Monroe County. The Village of Islamorada occupies PAEDs 12A, 128, 13, & 14, and has its own population figures starting in 1998. PAEDs 19 and 20 are the last PAEDs before the "bend" in US-1 , and have been grouped together in this report because of data constraints. The dividing line between the two PAEDs is the centerline of US-1 . Figure 2: PAED Map The Upper Keys The Middle Keys J.-~ The lower Keys .. .... ~ I PAED 5 PAED 6 I PAED 1 Source: The Monroe County GIS Department GROWTH ANALYSIS PAGE 12 2000 PUBLIC FACILITIES CAPACITY ASSESSMENT MONROE COUNTY PLANNING & ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES As mentioned earlier, Section 9.5-292 divides Monroe County into three service areas. The Upper Keys service area in- cludes PAEDs 128 through 22, or the area from Mile Marker 83.5 to 112, the Middle Keys includes PAEDs 7 through 13 (Mile Marker 47.5 to 83.4), and the Lower Keys service area is composed of PAEDs 1 through 6 from Mile Marker 4 to 47.4. The chart below shows the individual PAEDs by their mile marker ranges, and also shows the islands included within a particu- lar PAED's boundary. Figure 3: PAED/Mile Marker Chart Approx. Mile PAED Islands Marker Range 1 Stock Island 4-6 2 Boca Chica, East Rockland, Big Coppitt, Geiger, Shark 7-12.4 3 Saddlebunch Keys, Lower Sugarloaf, Upper Sugarloaf 12.5-20.5 4a Cudjoe, Summerland, Ramrod, Big-Middle-Little Torch 20.6-29 4b No Name Key N/A 5 Big Pine Key 29.5-33 W. Summerland, Spanish Harbor, Bahia Honda, Ohio, Missouri, Little 6 Duck, Pigeon Key 34.5-46 7 Knight. Hog, Vaca, Boot, Stirrup (Marathon) 47.5-53.2 8 Fat Deer, Little Crawl, Crawl #5, (Marathon) & (Key Colony Beach) 53.3-56.4 9 Grassy Key (Marathon) 56.5-60 10 Duck Key, Little Conch Key, Conch Key 61-64 11 Long Key, Fiesta Key, (Layton) 65-71 12a Craig Key, Lower Matecumbe (Islamorada) 72-78 12b Windley Key (Islamorada) 83.5-85.5 13 Teatable Key, Upper Matecumbe (Islamorada) 79-83.4 14 Plantation Key (Islamorada) 85.6-91 15 Key Largo (Tawmier area) 91.1-94.5 16 Key Largo 94.6-98 17 Key Largo (Rock Harbor) 98.1-100.6 18 Key Largo 100.7-103.5 19-20 Key Largo 103.6-107.5 21 Key Largo (North Key Largo, Ocean Reef, Card Sound area) N/A 22 Cross Key (18 Mile Stretch area) 107.6-112 Source: Monroe County Planning Department, 2000 2000 PUBLIC F ACILTITlES CAPACITY ASSESSMENT PAGE 13 GROWTH ANALYSIS MONROE COUNTY PLANNING & ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES Functional Population As the chart indicates, the functional population of Monroe County is expected The functional population is the combi- to grow by more than 16,000 people from nation of the number of permanent residents 1990 to 2015. This represents an increase with the peak seasonal population. The of almost eleven percent (11 %) over the chart below shows the projected changes twenty-five year period. However, the nu- in county-wide functional population from merical and percent change columns show 1990 to 2015. that the rate of increase is expected to slow dramatically over the same time period. Figure 4: Functional Figure 5 shows the breakdown in func- Population of Monroe County 1990-2015 tional population by the three service areas. Functional Numerical Percent Regionally, the Upper Keys accounted for the largest portion of the 1990 unincorpo- Year Population Change Change rated functional population (42,171 people, 1990 149,348 * * or 40.9% of the total). This is followed by 1995 154,255 4,907 3.29% the Middle Keys, which comprised 29.6% 2000 159,113 4,857 3.15% (30,443 people) of the total 1990 functional 2005 162,041 2,929 1.84% population; and finally, the Lower Keys, 2010 164,769 2,727 1.68% which contained 30,387 people, or 29.5% 2015 165,366 597 0.36% of the unincorporated functional population. Source: Monroe County Planning Department, The incorporations of Islamorada and 2000 Marathon account for the drop in unincor- The above chart shows the functional porated functional population in the Upper population for all of Monroe County (includ- and Middle Keys service areas by 2000. ing the incorporated areas), excluding Main- land Monroe County and the population in Figure 5: Functional the Dry Tortugas. Population by Service Area 1990-2015 1990 2000 2015 %01 %01 %01 Functional Unincorp. Functional Unincorp. Functional Unincorp. Service Area Population Total Population Total Population Total Unner Kevs 42.171 40.9% 36 615 49.5% 38 362 48.7% Middle Kevs 30 443 29.6% 3944 5.3% 4206 5.3% Lower Kevs 30.387 29.5% 33410 45.2% 36 263 46.0% Unincoroorated Subtotal 103 000 100.0% 73 969 100.0% 78.831 100.0% Incornorated Areas 46.348 85 144 86 535 Countv Total 149 348 159 113 165 366 Source: Monroe County Planning Department, 2000 GROWTH ANALYSIS PAGE 14 2000 PUBLIC FACILITIES CAPACITY ASSESSMENT MONROE COUNTY PLANNING & ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES The functional population in the Middle Keys service area is expected to decline more than eighty-seven percent (87%), while the Upper Keys service area lost thir- teen percent (13%) of its functional popula- tion as a result of these incorporations. The Lower Keys service area is expected to grow almost ten percent (10%) from 1990 to 2000. By the year 2015, the Upper Keys, with a functional population of 38,362 people, is expected to contain 48.7% of the unincor- porated functional population. The Lower Keys are projected to have a functional population of 36,263 people in 2015, or 46% of the unincorporated total, while the Middle Keys will been reduced to 4,206 people, or 5.3% of the unincorporated county total. If current trends continue, the Lower Keys service area will be the fastest-grow- ing area of unincorporated Monroe County by 2015. The Upper Keys service area will continue to grow, but by the slowest rate. The Middle Keys service area functional population is expected to rebound after the incorporations, growing over six percent (6%) from 2000 to 2015. It is interesting to note that by 2015, the functional popula- tions in the Upper and Middle Keys are ex- pected to begin a decline, while the func- tional population in the Lower Keys is ex- pected to increase. The graphs in Figure Six show the pro- jected changes in functional population by service area over time. Figure 6: Changes in Functional Population by Service Area 1990-2015 1990 Functional Population Lower Keys 30,387 Upper Keys 42,171 Middle Keys 30,443 2000 Functional Population PAGE 15 Upper Keys 36,615 Lower Keys 33,410 Middle Keys 3,944 2015 Functional Population Lower Keys 36,263 Upper Keys 38,362 Middle Keys 4,206 Source: Monroe County Planning Department 2000 PUBLIC F AClLTITIES CAPACITY ASSESSMENT GROWTH ANALYSIS MONROE COUNTY PLANNING & ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES Permanent and Seasonal Population Permanent residents are those people who spend all or most of the year living in Monroe County, and as such, exert a rela- tively constant demand on all public facili- ties. The seasonal population is composed of seasonal residents spending less than six months in the Keys, and the tourist popula- tion. The seasonal population has a higher cyclical demand on some public facilities like roads and solid waste. The total permanent resident population in Monroe County is projected to grow from 78,855 people in 1990 to a potential 90,654 people by 2015, an increase of fifteen per- cent (15%) over the twenty-five year period. The permanent resident population as a per- centage of the functional population fluctu- ates between 52.8% and 54.8% over the period. The years 1991 and 1993 were the only years in which the county-wide perma- nent resident growth rate exceeded one percent (1 %) per year. Growth rates are expected to remain under 1 % per year for 160,000 140,000 c 120,000 0 :;::: ClI '3 100,000 Q, 0 Q. 80,000 60,000 40,000 A 149,348 .A 154,255 .A 159,113 85,622 . 82,990 78,855 . ~'_~~.m.""..".'m"""ill>.m"'"''%''''''' ;;".W'~""~""""""'-;(W""';;""'''''''>''>''-,",<''''W'-' 70,493 71,266 73,491 1990 1995 2000 .", Seasonal Population the remainder of the years under study, and are expected to decline after the year 2003. The peak seasonal population in Mon- roe County is projected to grow from 70,493 people in 1990 to a potential 74,712 people by 2015, an increase of six percent (6%) over the twenty-five year period. The peak seasonal population as a percentage of the functional population fluctuates between 45.2% and 47.2% over the period. The county-wide peak seasonal population growth rate exceeded four percent (4%) in 1993. Growth rates fluctuated between -1.7% and 1.9% for the remainder of the years under study, and are expected to steadily decline after the year 2003. The graph below shows the projected changes in the permanent and seasonal populations for all of Monroe County for the years from 1990 to 2015. Figure 7: Permanent and Seasonal Population in Monroe County 1990-2015 .A 162,041 .A 164,769 165,366 .A 88,305 . 90,236 . 90,654 . 'YNWi>!',,,,,:::,,,,::<,;~,,,,::;':~,,,,""="'::<fj:':M=~""~""':--;"" -w"".~{*"~'7 73,737 74,533 74,712 2005 2010 2015 _Permanent Population ___Functional Population Source: Monroe County Planning Department, 2000 GROWTH ANALYSIS PAGE 16 2000 PUBLIC FACILITIES CAPACITY ASSESSMENT MONROE COUNTY PLANNING & ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES The graphs below show the changes in permanent and seasonal population from 1990 to 2015 for the three service areas of unincorporated Monroe County. The declines in popula- tion that occur between 1995 and 2000 are a result of the incorporations of Islamorada in 1998 and Marathon in 1999. Figure 8: Permanent and Seasonal Population in Unincorporated Monroe County by Service Area 1990-2015 Permanent Population 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 20 345 21 963 17435 18 007 18510 18 569 13 952 14 467 1 098 1 147 1 174 1172 18446 19 852 20741 21 662 22 458 22 733 52 743 56 282 39 273 40 816 42 142 42474 Source: Monroe County Planning Department, 2000 2000 PUBLIC FACILTlTlES CAPACITY ASSESSMENT PAGE 17 GROWTH ANALYSIS MONROE COUNTY PLANNING & ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES As indicated in the graphs in Figure 8, the projected seasonal population is larger than the permanent resident population in the Upper and Middle Keys from 1990 to 2015. The Lower Keys consistently have a lower projected seasonal population as com- pared to the number of permanent residents. Overall, permanent residents outnumber the peak seasonal population on any given evening in unincorporated Monroe County. The incorporations of Islamorada and Marathon have created substantial reduc- tions in both permanent and seasonal popu- lation for the Upper and Middle Keys ser- vice areas. As mentioned in a previous sec- tion, the Upper Keys service area lost 13% of its functional population (permanent population + seasonal population), and the Middle Keys service area is expected to lose 87% of its functional population as a result of these incorporations. The chart below shows the estimated permanent, seasonal, and functional popu- lation by PAED and incorporated area for 2000. Figure 9: 2000 Population Estimates by PAEO 2000 Permanent 2000 Seasonal 2000 Functional PAED PODulation PODulation Population 1 4730 1 283 6013 2 3,333 1 282 4,615 ~ 3 2 183 1,731 3,914 Q) 4a 4975 3178 8154 ~ ~ 4b 58 23 81 0 5 5022 3289 8311 ...J 6 440 1,883 2323 Subtotal 20.741 12.669 33410 7 - - - 8 - - - ~ 9 - - - Q) ~ 10 719 835 1,553 Q) :c 11 379 2011 2,391 "C ~ 12a - - - 13 - - - Subtotal 1 098 2.846 3944 12b - - - 14 - - - 15 2991 1,759 4749 rJl 16 2,352 4,554 6,905 >- Q) 2,683 5783 ~ 17 3 100 CD 18 4516 4580 9097 0. 0. 2.764 2,400 5163 :::l 19-20 21 1 647 3,101 4,748 22 65 104 169 Subtotal 17 435 19 180 36615 'UN,liilio.alliiitioiltfr ...............F ....."" '''F Villaae of Islamorada 7,665 8,644 16,309 City of Layton 208 163 372 Citv of Kev Colony Beach 1 101 1,641 2742 City of Marathon 11 ,272 10182 21,455 City of Key West 26,102 }1'1..1IlI 18,165 44,267 '#';! ..m AA - III Source: Monroe County Planning Department, 2000 2000 PUBLIC FACILITIES CAPACITY ASSESSMENT GROWTH ANALYSIS PAGE 18 MONROE COUNTY PLANNING & ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES The functional population for all of Mon- Figure 10: Projected Change roe County is projected to increase by 1,941 in Population from 1999 to people from 1999 to 2000, a percent in- 2000 crease of 1 .23%. Unincorporated Monroe County is projected to decline from 94,565 % to 73,969, (a total of 20,596 members of Chan e the functional population) from 1999 to 0.82% 2000. The functional population decline is -84.27% a result of the incorporation of Marathon in 0.72% late 1999. This is a net decrease of 21.7% for unincorporated Monroe County. 94 565 73 969 -21.78% The functional population in the Upper 62 607 85 144 36.00% Keys service area is expected to increase COUNTY from 36,317 people to 36,615 (0.82%) from TOTAL 157 172 159 113 1.23% 1999 to 2000. This projected increase re- sults from the addition of 85 permanent resi- dents and 213 in the seasonal population. % From 1990 to 2000, the functional popu- Area Chan e U er Ke s 0.49% lation in the Middle Keys service area is Middle Ke s -91 .07% projected to decline a total of 21,133 people Lower Ke s 0.76% from 25,077 to 3,944 (a percent change of Unincorp. -84.2%). The projected decline includes the Subtotal 50 236 39 273 -21.82% removal of 11 ,203 permanent residents, and Incorporated 9,929 members of the peak seasonal popu- Areas 34 878 46 349 32.89% lation from the Middle Keys service area. COUNTY TOTAL 85 114 85 622 0.60% The functional population of the Lower Keys service area is expected to increase 0.72% from 33,171 in 1999 to 33,410 in 2000. The Lower Keys are projected to add % 157 permanent residents, and 82 members Po ulation Chan e of the seasonal population from 1999 to 19180 1.13% 2000. 2846 -77.72% 12 669 0.66% The charts in Figure 10 show the pro- 44 329 34 696 -21.73% jected changes in population from 1999 to 2000. 27 729 38 795 39.91 % COUNTY TOTAL 72 058 73491 1.99% Source: Monroe County Planning Department, 2000 2000 PUBLIC FACILTlTlES CAPACITY ASSESSMENT PAGE 19 GROWTH ANALYSIS MONROE COUNTY PLANNING & ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES Number of Residential Permits The second major component of the Growth Analysis Section is the number of residential permits issued. The majority of the new residential permits issued are for permanent residential use. However, some of the permits issued for permanent dwell- ings are used by the seasonal population. One issue to remember when consider- ing growth based upon building permits is the time lapse which occurs between when a permit for a new residence is issued, and when that residence is ultimately occupied. The knowledge that the Rate of Growth Or- dinance (ROGO) was about to be adopted in the early 1990s caused many property owners to obtain building permits prior to when they were prepared to construct their dwellings. As a result, there are many dwell- ings in the Keys which have permits, but are not yet fully constructed or are only partially complete. Based upon this time lapse, the number of residential permits issued over- states the actual number of new residential dwellings which currently require public fa- cilities. The number of dwelling units (permanent and seasonal) which can be permitted in Monroe County has been controlled by ROGO (Rate of Growth Ordinance) since July of 1992. ROGO was developed as a response to the inability of the road network to accommodate a large-scale hurricane evacuation in a timely fashion. A series of complex models developed during the first evacuation study identified an approximate number of additional dwelling units which could be permitted and which would not have a detrimental effect on the amount of time needed to evacuate the Keys. The ROGO system was developed as a tool to GROWTH ANALYSIS equitably distribute the remaining number of permits available both geographically and over time. The ROGO system distributes a set number of allocations for new residential permits on a yearly basis from July 14 of one year to July 13th of the following year. Year 8 of the ROGO system ends on July 13, 2000, and Year 9 of the system starts on July 14, 2000. The current ROGO sys- tem will expire on July 13, 2002. Each ser- vice area of unincorporated Monroe County and several of the incorporated areas re- ceive a set number of allocations for new residential permits which can be issued during that particular ROGO year. The num- ber of allocations available to a particular area was based upon the supply of vacant buildable land located in that area prior to the start of the ROGO system. The Ocean Reef area of north Key Largo is exempted from the ROGO system due to its proximity to Card Sound Road, an alternate evacua- tion route. The ROGO system allowed 255 alloca- tions for new residential units in unincorpo- rated Monroe County each year for the first six years of the ROGO system. The num- ber of allocations available was reduced by the State of FloridaAdministration Commis- sion during Year 7 of ROGO based upon a lack of progress on the implementation of the Year 201 0 Comprehensive Plan. Avail- able allocations were reduced by twenty percent (20%), taking the available figure from 255 to 204 new residential units. The number of available allocations in unincorporated Monroe County was further reduced by the incorporation of Islamorada, which now receives 22 residential alloca- tions per year. The incorporation of Islamorada reduced the number of available allocations in unincorporated Monroe PAGE 20 2000 PUBLIC FACILITIES CAPACITY ASSESSMENT MONROE COUNTY PLANNING & ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES County from 204 to 182. This number was further reduced by the incorporation of Marathon, which received a total of 24 new residential allocations. The incorporation of Marathon reduces the number of avail- able new residential allocations in unincor- porated Monroe County from 182 to 158. In unincorporated Monroe County, the ROGO system will now allocate 57 units to the Upper Keys service area, 9 units to the Middle Keys service area, and 92 units to the Lower Keys, for an annual total of 158 additional residential units each ROGO year. Twenty percent of these units in each subarea are set aside for affordable hous- ing. The table on the following page presents the number of residential permits issued by subarea in unincorporated Monroe County during the 1999 calendar year. The data presented in the table does not include per- mits issued in Key West, Key Colony Beach, Layton, or Islamorada. Also, the boundaries between the Upper and Middle Keys ser- vice areas, and the boundaries used for this data are slightly different. The chart below compares the boundaries. Basically, the service areas from the Codes break at Whale Harbor Channel, and do not include Upper and Lower Matecumbe in the Upper Keys, while the permitting records break at Channel Five and do include Upper and Lower Matecumbe in the Upper Keys. Figure 11: Boundary Comparison Table Figure 12 shows the breakdown of new residential permits issued for unincorpo- rated Monroe County through the 1990s. According to Building Department records, 4,099 residential permits were issued dur- ing the 1990s, with 80% (3,266) being is- sued to single family residences. Only 9% of the new residential permits were issued to duplex, multifamily, or mobile home projects. Almost 53% (2, 139) of all the resi- dential permits issued in the 1990s were issued from 1990 to 1992 as applicants were attempting to obtain permits prior to ROGO. According to Building Department records, a total of 335 residential permits were issued in unincorporated Monroe County in 1999, an increase of 24% from 1998. A portion of this figure relates to a series of permits issued to Ocean Reef to vest a portion of the community from the "Habitat Evaluation Index" (HEI) require- ments . Also, a percentage of the permits were issued for replacement of existing mobile homes or other existing residences. There were more new residential per- mits issued in 1999 than any previous year back to 1992. AREA UnDer Keys Middle Keys Lower Keys SERVICE AREAS Mile Marker RanQe 83.5-112 47.5- 83.4 4-47.4 PERMIT OFFICE Mile Marker Range 71-112 47.5-70.9 4-47.4 PAEDs Included 128-22 7-13 1-6 PAEDs Included 12A-22 7-11 1-6 2000 PUBLIC F ACILTlTIES CAPACITY ASSESSMENT PAGE 21 GROWTH ANALYSIS MONROE COUNTY PLANNING & ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES Figure 12: New and Replacement Residential and Seasonal Units Permitted by Year for Unincorporated Monroe County Single Multi- Mobile Hotell Family Duplex Family Home/RV Motel TOTAL 1990 Upper Keys 310 2 10 35 32 389 Middle Keys 68 8 4 0 0 80 Lower Keys 300 0 0 1 0 301 Subtotal 678 10 14 36 32 770 1991 Upper Keys 283 2 119 28 117 549 Middle Keys 75 6 0 6 27 114 Lower Keys 176 0 0 2 0 178 Subtotal 534 8 119 36 144 841 1992 Upper Keys 190 38 0 6 23 257 Middle Keys 67 0 0 1 0 68 Lower Keys 189 0 14 0 0 203 Subtotal 446 38 14 7 23 528 1993 Upper Keys 104 0 0 5 0 109 Middle Keys 55 2 0 1 0 58 Lower Keys 80 0 0 1 0 81 Subtotal 239 2 0 7 0 248 1994 Upper Keys 109 0 0 3 0 112 Middle Keys 94 0 0 0 0 94 Lower Keys 36 0 0 1 0 37 Subtotal 239 0 0 4 0 243 1995 Upper Keys 131 2 0 4 0 137 Middle Keys 27 2 2 1 5 37 Lower Keys 144 0 0 0 0 144 Subtotal 302 4 2 5 5 318 1996 Upper Keys 114 0 3 3 0 120 Middle Keys 40 0 15 0 0 55 Lower Keys 83 0 0 6 0 89 Subtotal 237 0 18 9 0 264 1997 Upper Keys 89 0 12 0 0 101 Middle Keys 27 4 0 0 77 108 Lower Keys 73 0 0 0 0 73 Subtotal 189 4 12 0 77 282 1998 Upper Keys 78 0 0 3 0 81 Middle Keys 13 0 0 0 110 123 Lower Keys 66 0 0 0 0 66 Subtotal 157 0 0 3 110 270 1999 Upper Keys 138 0 0 2 0 140 Middle Keys 20 0 0 24 63 107 Lower Keys 87 0 0 0 1 88 Subtotal 245 0 0 26 64 335 TOTALS 3.266 66 179 133 455 4.099 Source: Monroe County Building Department, 2000 GROWTH ANALYSIS PAGE 22 2000 PUBLIC FACILITIES CAPACITY ASSESSMENT MONROE COUNTY PLANNING & ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES Figures 13 and 14 show the distribution of new residential permits issued in unin- corporated Monroe County during 1998 and 1999. Figure 15 shows the distribution over the 1990s. Figure 13: Comparison of Residential Permits by Service Area, 1998-1999 1998 1999 Lower Keys 24% Mddle Keys 46% Lower Keys 26% Mddle Keys 32% Source: Monroe County Building Department, 2000 900 850 800 750 700 .!! 650 .- 600 E 550 8? 500 '0 450 .. 400 ~ 350 E 300 :::I 250 z 200 150 100 50 o Figure 14: Comparison of Residential Permit Types 1998-1999 1998 I-bteVM>tel (Vested or FDGO Exerrpt) 41% Aeplacerrent M:>bile I-brreIRV 1% 1999 f-bteL/M:)te (Vested or FO:1) Exerrpl)1 19% RlpIacerre III M:lbiIe H:mlIRV 8% QJplex 0% OJpIex 0% Silgle Farrily 58% MJIli-Fanily 0% Mllti-FaniIy 0% SngIe FaniIy 73% Source: Monroe County Building Department, 2000 Figure 15: Comparison of Residential Permit Types 1990-1999 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Source: Monroe County Building Department, 2000 l1'ZI HotellMotel . Mobile Home/RV . MJlti- Family . Duplex o Single Family 2000 PUBLIC F AClLTITIES CAPACITY ASSESSMENT PAGE 23 GROWTH ANALYSIS MONROE COUNTY PLANNING & ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES Figure 13 shows an increase in the total number of permits issued in the Upper and Lower Keys service areas relative to the number issued in the Middle Keys from 1998 to 1999. In addition, there were 90 more new residential permits issued in 1999 than 1998. Figure 14 shows the composition of new residential permits issued in 1998 and 1999. No new duplexes or multifamily units were permitted in either year. Single family resi- dential permits occupy the largest percent- age in both years, with 88 more new single family permits being issued in 1999. New hotel and motel units continued to be per- mitted in both years, 82% of the total hotel/ motel permits issued during 1998 and 1999 were issued in the Middle Keys service area to a property which was vested from ROGO and the 2010 Comprehensive Plan require- ments. Figure 15 shows the total number of per- mits issued in unincorporated Monroe County from 1990 to 1999. The chart shows a swell in permitting activity prior to the adop- tion of ROGO, and then declines following its adoption. Figure 16 below shows the breakdown in the types of residential permits issued over the 1990s. Figure 16: Types of Permits Issued 1990-1999 HoteV M:lbile M:ltel Home/RV 11 % Source: Monroe County Building Dept., 2000 MJlti- Farrily 4% Duplex 2% Non-Residential Square Footage Nonresidential permitting also plays a role in growth analysis. Nonresidential per- mits are just as the name implies every thing that is not residential, which includes, but is not limited to, industrial, commercial , non- profit and public buildings, and replacement or remodeling of existing nonresidential structures. Also included are vested and ROGO exempt hotel-motels, campgrounds, marinas and other commercial facilities. With very little industrial and agricultural activity in the Keys, the predominant form of nonresidential development is commer- cial. In Monroe County, there are two pri- mary types of commercial development: retail trade and services (which includes tourism-related development like hotels and restaurants). Therefore, the impacts of non- residential development on public facilities varies significantly based on the type of commercial use. Nonresidential and residential develop- ment tend to fuel one another. Residential populations provide markets for nonresiden- tial activities. Nonresidential development, in turn, helps to drive population growth by providing services and employment. Cer- tain types of nonresidential development also concentrate the demand for public fa- cilities within certain locations and during peak periods. The Monroe County Building Depart- ment tracks the number of commercial per- mits by subdistrict in unincorporated Mon- roe County (just like new residential per- mits). In addition to the number of permits, the Building Department tracks the amount of floor space (square footage) affected in in each commercial building permit issued. Figure 17 shows the number of non- residential isssued indicating possible trends in commercial permitsing over the 1990s. GROWTH ANALYSIS 2000 PUBLIC FACILITIES CAPACITY ASSESSMENT PAGE 24 MONROE COUNTY PLANNING & ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES Figure 17: New & Redevelop- ment Nonresidential Permits by Year #of Permits Floor Area Area Issued (Sa. Ft.) 1990 UDDer Kevs 20 91 097 Middle Kevs 5 14 142 Lower Kevs 8 40 535 Subtotal 33 145.174 1991 UDDer Kevs 35 46 641 Middle Kevs 20 103 293 Lower Kevs 9 42 770 Subtotal 64 192 704 1992 UDDer Kevs 15 40 506 Middle Kevs 2 7263 Lower Kevs 5 1 529 Subtotal 22 49.298 1993 UDDer Kevs 4 16334 Middle Kevs 4 24.812 Lower Kevs 4 27 236 Subtotal 12 68.382 1994 UDDer Kevs 4 24 648 Middle Kevs 7 31 079 Lower Kevs 4 0 Subtotal 15 55 727 1995 UDDer Kevs 24 147319 Middle Kevs 12 109.331 Lower Kevs 8 10004 Subtotal 44 266.654 1996 UDDer Kevs 17 102 795 Middle Kevs 6 93 334 Lower Kevs 2 14 149 Subtotal 25 210.278 1997 UDDer Kevs 14 93 503 Middle Kevs 83 8420 Lower Kevs 2 18 327 Subtotal 99 120.250 1998 UDDer Kevs 4 60.936 Middle Kevs 73 16304 Lower Kevs 1 24.152 Subtotal 78 101 392 1999 UDDer Kevs 8 14861 Middle Kevs 68 84 715 Lower Kevs 1 2054 Subtotal 77 101.630 TOTALS 469 1.312.089 Source: Monroe County Builiding Department, 2000 The subdistricts shown in the chart do not directly correspond to the service areas mandated in section of 9.5-292 of the Land Development Regulations. Refer to the boundary descriptions found in Figure 11 of this report to compare the two areas. As indicated in Figure 17, a total of 469 nonresidential permits have been issued in unincorporated Monroe County over the 1990s.(note that these figures do not include the nonresidential permits issued in the in- corporated areas over the same period). Nonresidential permitting trends were very similar between 1998 and 1999, with only 1 more permit and an additional 238 square feet permitted in 1999. The figure below shows the relative amount of square footage permitted in each of the three service areas over the 1990s. Figure 1 8: Commercial Square Footage by Service Area 1990-1999 Lower Keys 14% 180,756 sq. ft. Mddle Keys 38% 492,693 sq. ft. LPper Keys 48% 638,640 sq. ft. Source: Monroe County Building Department, 2000 2000 PUBLIC FAClLTITIES CAPACITY ASSESSMENT GROWTH ANALYSIS PAGE 25 MONROE COUNTY PLANNING & ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES Figure 19 shows the trends in the amount of nonresidential permitting activity have fluctu- ated throughout the 1990s. The permiting activity based on square footage affected gener- ally declined from 1990 through 1994 with a major jump in affected area occurring in 1995 which resulted from the knowledge of an impending implementation of a nonresidential per- mit allocation system similar to the ROGO system for residential development. Figure 19: Nonresidential Permits by Service Area 1990-1999 CD ~ 275,cro '0 2fAJ,cro .f 225,cro CT 2OO,cro en 175,cro ~ 150,cro i 125,cro ~ 100,cro ! 75,cro 5 5O,cro z 25,cro i 0 - ~ 1900 1991 1992 1993 1994 1~ 1900 1997 1998 1999 :t: ~ -~~ ...1110'W) M..+..Ie k"'0l~ . .. ~~",~,,~ \..1..1 I v;;;yo Source: Monroe County Building Department, 2000 Since residential development is con- strained through the Rate of Growth Ordi- nance and the Permit Allocation System, it was thought that nonresidential (commer- cial) development should also be con- strained in the interest of maintaining a bal- ance of land uses. At the time the Comprehensive Plan was prepared in 1991, 17.6% of the land was under residential use, while 4.6% was used for commercial development as indicated in Table 2.1, Monroe County Existing Land Uses, in the Monroe County Year 201 0 Com- prehensive Plan Technical Document. It was determined that this balance was appropri- ate given the knowledge available at the time the Comprehensive Plan was prepared. c:::J lDAer ~ ..... Year1yTdaI To assure that balance was maintained, the Comprehensive Plan proposed Policy 101.3.1, which states: "Monroe County shall maintain a balance between residential and non- residential growth by limiting the gross square footage of nonresidential de- velopment over the 15 year planning horizon in order to maintain a ratio of approximately 239 square feet of non- residential development for each new residential unit permitted through the Permit Allocation System..." GROWTH ANALYSIS 2000 PUBLIC FACILITIES CAPAClTI' ASSESSMENT PAGE 26 MONROE COUNTY PLANNING & ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES In other words, the Comprehensive Plan limits the square footage of new commer- cial development which may be permitted. The commercial square footage allocation is 239 square feet for each (1) new resi- dential permit issued. This equates to around 61 ,000 square feet of new commer- cial development per year throughout unin- corporated Monroe County. The Comprehensive Plan was adopted in by the Board of County Commissioners in 1993, but did not have the full force of law until ratified by the Department of Com- munity Affairs and the Administration Com- mission, which did not occur until 1996. In the interim period between 1993 and 1996, many property owners applied for and re- ceived permits for new commercial square footage based upon the knowledge that the ability to obtain a permit would be con- strained after the ratification of the Compre- hensive Plan. The net result was that over 411 ,441 square feet of new commercial square footage was permitted over the pe- riod from 1993 to 1996. If the Comprehen- sive Plan had the full force of law during this three-year window, it would have only been possible to obtain permits for a total of 256,447 square feet of new commercial development based upon Policy 101.3.1. As a result, the lapse between the time the Comprehensive Plan was adopted and implemented more square footage was per- mitted (154,994 sq. ft.) than would have been allowable by the Comprehensive Plan. This situation is the reason for the current de facto commercial moratorium. The mora- torium must continue until the balance be- tween new residential uses and the exist- ing commercial development is reestab- lished or the comprehensive plan is amended. Figure 12 of this report indicates that 1,930 residential building permits have been issued from 1993 to 1999. Following the 239 square foot rule mandated in the Com- prehensive Plan, a total of 461 ,270 square feet of nonresidential development could have been permitted, and the balance been maintained. According to Figure 17,924,313 square feet of new nonresidential development have been permitted from 1993 to 1999. However, all the commercial square foot- age permitted during and after 1996 is ei- ther vested from the rules in the Compre- hensive Plan, exempt from the Plan require- ments (nonprofit and public services are exempt), replacement of existing square footage, or located in the Ocean Reef area (where new development is not subject to ROGO or the commercial balance require- ments). As a result, the figures reported in Figure 17 can not be fully relied upon to determine the status of permitting as it re- lates to the rules in the Comprehensive Plan which address the balance between resi- dential and nonresidential uses. The Planning and Environmental Re- sources Department is now preparing a study which will give the exact status of resi- dential and nonresidential permitting as they relate to the de facto commercial morato- rium. However, the Comprehensive Plan also calls for the development and imple- mentation of a nonresidential permit allo- cation system similar to the one used for residential development. The nonresiden- tial permit allocation system must be devel- oped and integrated in the Land Develop- ment Regulations before any additional non- residential square footage may be devel- oped. 2000 PUBLIC F ACILTITIES CAPACITY ASSESSMENT GROWTH ANALYSIS PAGE 27 o MONROE COUNTY PLANNING & ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES Summary To summarize, this growth analysis is based upon projected changes in popula- tion as well as residential and nonresiden- tial permitting in unincorporated Monroe County. There are two groups composing the population in Monroe County: the permanent resident population, and the peak seasonal papulation. The sum of these two groups gives the functional papulation, or the maxi- mum number of people in the Keys on any given evening. The functional population of all of Monroe County is expected to grow by more than 16,000 people from 1990 to 2015, an in- crease of 11 % over the period. Planning Department projections show the rate of in- crease in functional population is expected to slow after the year 2000. The functional population of unincorpo- rated Monroe County is expected to reach 73,969 people by 2000, a decrease of 28% from 1990 due to the incorporations of Islamorada in 1997 and Marathon in 1999. The Upper Keys portion of unincorporated Monroe County accounts for 49.5% of the unincorporated functional population, while the Lower Keys portions accounts for 45.2% in 2000. These percentages are expected to remain relatively constant through 2015. The permanent population of all of Mon- roe County is projected to grow from 78,855 people in 1990 to 90,654 by 2015 (an in- crease of 15%). The peak seasonal popu- lation for all of Monroe County is projected to grow from 70,493 in 1990 to 74,712 by 2015 (an increase of 6% over the period). The permanent resident population for unincorparated Manroe County is expected to be 39,273 peaple in 2000, while the peak seasonal populatian is projected to. be 34,696 peaple. Both of these figures are lower than in 1999 due to. the incarporation of Marathon. County-wide grawth rates in the functianal, permanent, and seasanal populatians equal 1.23%, 0.6%, and 1.99% respectively from 1999 to 2000. In terms of the number of new residen- tial permits, a total of 335 new residential permits (including vested or ROGO exempt hotel rooms) were issued in 1999, an in- crease of 24% from 1998. Mo.re new resi- dential permits were issued in 1999 than the previous 6 years due in part to the alle- viation of the back log of permits created by the Cesspit Replacement Program which is tied to the awarding of residential ROGO Allocations.. Over the 1990s (1990-1999) 80% of the new residential permits (3,266) were issued to single family residences, while only 9% (378) were issued for new multifamily, du- plex, or mobile homes. A total of 245 per- mits (73%) were issued for new single fam- ily residences in 1999. The current rate of growth guidelines in- dicate that unincorporated Monroe County has a total of 182 permits it may issue dur- ing the ROGO year (not including the addi- tional 90 replacement affordable housing units which were allowed by the DCA based upon the lower enclosure removal program). After the incorporation of Marathon, this number fell to 158 permits a year. Year 8 of ROGO will come to a close on July 13, 2000, leaving two years remaining in the current ROGO system. PAGE 28 2000 PUBLIC FACILITIES CAPACllY ASSESSMENT GROWTH ANALYSIS MONROE COUNTY PLANNING & ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES TRANSPORTATION FACILITIES This section of the report investigates the current capacity of the transportation network in Monroe County. This analysis includes changes in traffic volumes, the level of service on US-1 , the reserve capacity of the highway and county roads, and the Florida Department of Transportation Five Year Work Program for Monroe County. Roads are one of the four critical public facilities identified for annual assessment in the Land Development Regulations. In fact, roads are the only public facility with clear and specific standards for level of ser- vice measurements identified in the Land Development Regulations and Comprehen- sive Plan. The regulations require all seg- ments of US-1 to remain at a level of ser- vice of 'C', and all County roads to be re- main at a level of service 'D'. Subsequent portions of this section will explain the level of service measurements, and how the level of service is calculated. Existing Roadway Facilities Monroe County's roadway transporta- tion system is truly unique. Nowhere else is there a chain of islands over 100 miles long connected by 42 bridges along a single highway. This single highway, the Overseas Highway (US-1), functions as a collector, an arterial, and the "Main Street" for the Keys. US-1 is a lifeline for the Keys, from both economic and public safety perspectives. Each day it carries food, supplies, and tour- ists from the mainland. In the event of a hurricane, it is the only viable evacuation route to the mainland for most of Monroe County. US-1 in Monroe County is predominantly a two-lane road. Of its 112 total miles, ap- proximately 80 miles (74%) are two-lane segments that are undivided. The four-lane sections are located on Key Largo (MM 90 to 106), the Marathon area (MM 48 to 54), Bahia Honda (MM 35 to 37), and from Key West to Boca Chica (MM 2 to 9). In addition to US-1 , there are 450 miles of County (secondary) roads with 38 bridges. US-1 and the County (secondary) roads have a combined total of approxi- mately 340 intersections in the Keys. The Monroe County Division of Public Works is charged with maintaining and improving secondary roads which are located within the boundaries of unincorporated Monroe County. The Florida Department of Trans- portation (FDOT) is responsible for main- taining US-1. The following list identifies the traffic sig- nals in operation along the US-1 corridor (excluding those found on the island of Key West). Figure 20: Fully-Signalized Intersections Mile Marker 4.4 4.6 4.8 30.3 48.5 50 52.4 52.5 53 53.5 84.5 90 90.5 91.5 99.5 101 104 2000 PUBLIC FACILTlTIES CAPACITY ASSESSMENT TRANSPORTATION PAGE 29 o MONROE COUNTY PLANNING & ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES Traffic Volumes Traffic counts can be very useful in as- sessing the capacity of the road network, and help determine when capacity improve- ments need to be made. The two primary measurements for determining traffic vol- umes are the average daily traffic in an area (referred to as an "ADT"), and the annual average daily traffic (referred to as an "AADT'). Average daily traffic counts are collected from both directions over seven twenty-four hour periods which usually in- clude a weekend. The amount of traffic counted over the week is then divided by five or seven to yield the average daily traf- fic for a particular location. The liS-day ADT' measurement considers only weekdays, and the "7 -day ADT' includes the weekend. The ADT information can then be used in a for- mula called a "weekly factor" to estimate the annual average daily traffic, which is an es- timate of the average amount of traffic at a particular location on any given day of the year. In Monroe County, traffic counts have been conducted in the same locations since 1992. These counts occur at Mile Marker 84 on Upper Matecumbe, Mile Marker 50 in Marathon, and at Mile Marker 30 on Big Pine Key. The counts are usually performed dur- ing the six-week peak tourist season which begins in the second week of February. This year's counts were completed between March 4 and March 10, 2000. Figure 21 compares the traffic counts for 1999 with those for 2000. Figure 21: Traffic Counts for 1999 and 2000 Big Pine Key (MM 30) 5-Da ADT 7 -Da ADT AADT 1999 25 819 24 955 20 843 % Chan e 3.98% 4.47% 4.47% 2000 26 846 26 070 . 21 774 Marathon (MM 50) 5-Da ADT 7 -Da ADT AADT 1999 38 619 36818 30 750 % Chan e -5.67% -5.64% -5.64% 2000 36 431 34 742 29 017 Upper Matecumbe (MM 84) % 1999 2000 Chan e 5-Da ADT 26512 26642 0.49% 7-Da ADT 26465 26831 1.38% AADT 22103 22410 1.39% Source: 2000 Arterial Travel Time & Delay Study, URS Greiner, Inc. The average weekday (5-Day ADT) and the average weekly (7 -Day ADT) traffic vol- umes, compared to last year, have in- creased at the Big Pine and Upper Matecumbe locations, and dropped at the Marathon location. The AADTs followed a similar trend, with increases on Big Pine and Upper Matecumbe, and decreases in Mara- thon. According to the report by URS Greiner, traffic volumes during the study period were generally found to be "heavy". The amount of traffic was uniform through- out the counting period in the Upper Keys, while higher weekday traffic volumes were observed in Marathon and the Lower Keys. A detailed historical comparison of the AADT traffic counts at all three locations for the period from 1993 to 1999 is shown in Figure 22. TRANSPORTATION PAGE 30 2000 PUBLIC FACILITIES CAPACITY ASSESSMENT MONROE COUNTY PLANNING & ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES Figure 22: Historical Comparison of AADTs 1993-2000 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 19 738 17743 22 688 21 186 21 496 19866 20 843 21 774 27 688 26 297 28 927 27 924 28 930 28 651 30 750 29 017 19296 19 593 20473 20 083 21 599 21 301 22103 22410 32,500 30,000 27,500 25,000 I- 22,500 c c( 20,000 c( 17,500 15,000 12,500 10,000 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 o Big Pine Key . Marathon III Upper Matecumbe Source: 2000 Arterial and Travel Time Delay Study, URS Greiner, Inc. The chart shows that the Marathon lo- cation consistently records the highest traf- fic volumes throughout the period, with counts generally in the upper 20,000 range. The AADT counts for Big Pine and Upper Matecumbe hover in the low 20,000 range over the period. A regression analysis of the AADT at each of the three locations over the last eight years indicate that traffic volumes in the Big 30,000 Ul "0 c: I1l (/) 25,000 ::::l 0 .c t:. (/) Q) 20,000 :Q .c Q) > '0 15,000 '**' . Pine Key segment have been increasing at a rate of 1.3% per year. Traffic volumes in the Marathon and Upper Matecumbe seg- ments of US-1 have been increasing at a rate of 1.4% and 2.4% per year respectively. The historical growth in traffic on U8-1 is depicted in the regression graph below. Figure 23: Regression Analysis of AADTs 1992-2000 . Marathon · Rate of Grow th - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - = 1.390/0 per Vear U. Matecurrbe Rate of Grow th = 2.37% per Vear - -1""'M",c"""M'" '''''''li[",'''' H@ wiil 1993 1994 1995 Big Pine Regression Line Big Pine Data Points ~W" .:. . ... .. <%"",,;;~,,;;;;;*,~m=ll<<~;""m<i~ ~~;;; ,..,..,.<",.;.;,,;;;{;/,,,;;;;,(~,,<k;.;~;:;i;:':;' - --- Big Ane Rate of Grow th = 1.30% per year 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 -Marathon Regression Line . Marathon Data Points -U.Matecumbe Regression Line .. U. Matecumbe Data Points Source: 2000 Arterial and Travel Time Delay Study, URS Greiner, Inc. 2000 PUBLIC F ACILTlTlES CAPACIIT ASSESSMENT TRANSPORTATION PAGE 31 o MONROE COUNTY PLANNING & ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES Level of Service Background Monroe County has conducted travel time and delay studies of US-1 on an an- nual basis since 1991. The primary objec- tive of the US-1 Arterial Travel Time and De- lay Study is to monitor the level of service on U.S. Highway 1 for concurrency manage- ment purposes pursuant to Chapter 163, Florida Statutes and Section 9.5-292 of the Land Development Regulations. The study utilizes an empirical relationship between the volume-based capacities and the speed- based level of service methodology devel- oped by the US-1 Level of Service Task Force. The US-1 Level of Service Task Force is a multi-agency group with members from Monroe County, the Florida Department of Transportation, and the Florida Department of Community Affairs. A uniform methodol- ogy was developed in 1993 and amended December 1997. The methodology adopted considers both the overall level of service from Key West to the mainland, and the level of service on 24 selected segments. The methodology was developed from basic cri- teria and principles contained in Chapters 7 (Rural Multilane Highways), Chapter 8 (Ru- ral Two-Lane Highways) and Chapter 11 (Urban and Suburban Arterials) of the 1985 Highway Capacity Manual. Overall Level of Service on US-l Overall speeds are those speeds re- corded over the 1 08-mile length of the Keys between Key West and Miami-Dade County. Overall speeds reflect the conditions expe- rienced by long distance traffic traveling the entire length of the Keys. Given that US-1 is the only principal arterial in unincorporated Monroe County, the movement of long dis- tance traffic is an important consideration. The overall level of service or capacity of the entire length of US-1 is measured in the average speed of a vehicle travelling from one end to the other of US-1.. The level of service (LOS) criteria for overall speeds on US-1 in Monroe County, as adopted by the US-1 Level of Service Task Force, are as follows: LOS A LOSB LOSC LOSD LOS E LOS F 51 mph or greater 48 mph to 50.9 mph 45 mph to 47.9 mph 42 mph to 44.9 mph 36 mph to 41.9 mph below 36 mph Both Monroe County and the Florida Department of Transportation have adopted a level of service 'C' standard for the over- all length of US-1. In other words, a vehicle travelling from Mile Marker 4 to Mile marker 112 (or vice versa) must maintain an aver- age speed of at least 45 mph to achieve the level of service 'C' standard. The median overall speed during the 2000 study was 46.4 mph, which is 0.3 mph lower than the 1999 median speed of 46.7 mph. The mean operating speed was 45.7 mph with a 95% confidence interval of plus or minus 0.8 mph. All of these measure- ments correspond to LOS C conditions. The highest overall speed recorded in the study was 49.0 mph (1.2% higher than 1999 highest overall speed), which occurred on a re-run on Friday, March 24, 2000 be- tween 3:45 p.m. and 6:13 p.m., in the south- bound direction. The lowest overall speed recorded was 40.2 mph (2.3% higher than 1999 lowest overall speed), which occurred on Tuesday, March 7, 2000 between 2:15 p.m. and 5:15 p.m. in the southbound di- rection. A drawbridge delay event which TRANSPORTATION 2000 PUBLIC FACILITIES CAPACITY ASSESSMENT PAGE 32 MONROE COUNTY PLANNING & ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES lasted over 10 minutes in Cross Key seg- ment was the primary cause for the Tues- day southbound run to be the lowest speed. The second lowest overall speed recorded was 41.9 mph (4.3% lower than 1999 low- est overall speed), which occurred on Sat- urday, March 11,2000 between 10:45 a.m. and 1 :36 p.m. in the northbound direction. The chart below examines the changes in the median overall speed on US-1. Figure 24: Changes in Median Overall Speed on US-1 1992-2000 County-wide Median Functional Year S eed LOS Po ulation 1992 46.9 C 150 668 1993 47.4 C 0.5 154 575 1994 47.3 C -0.1 154 022 1995 47.8 C 0.5 154 255 1996 47.1 C -0.7 155 886 1997 46.5 C -0.7 156 700 1998 45.7 C -0.8 156 120 1999 46.7 C 1.0 157 172 2000 46.4 C -0.3 159 113 48.0 47.4 47.5 " C1) 47.0 8- C/) c 46.5 as :c C1) :E 46.0 "iii .. C1) 45.5 > 0 The charts show that the overall median speed for US-1 has remained between 45.7 mph and 47.8 from 1992 to the present. It is interesting to note that most changes in the median speed show a reduction. Should the overall median speed fall ever below 45 mph (the minimum LOS C standard), then the US-1 capacity would be considered in- adequate. Level of Service on US-l Segments In addition to a determination of the over- all capacity throughout the entire 108 mile length of US-1 between Mile Marker 4 and 112, Section 9.5- 292 of the Land Development Regulations requires that the ca- pacity of portions or "segments" of US-1 also be assessed annu- ally. There are a total of twenty four (24) segments of US-1 from Mile Marker 4 to Mile Marker 112. A map and description of the seg- ment boundaries can be found in Figures 26 and 27. The segments were defined by the US-1 Level of Service Task Force to reflect roadway cross sections, speed limits, and geographical bound- aries. Numeric Change in Po ulation 3907 -553 233 1 631 814 -580 1052 1 941 45.0 44.5 46.4 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Sources: 2000 Arterial & Travel Time Delay Study, URS Greiner, Inc. & Monroe County Planning Department, 2000 The capacity or level of ser- vice for a US-1 segment is mea- sured in median speeds, similar to the overall capacity measure- ment. Segment speeds are the speeds recorded within individual links of US-1 , and reflect the con- ditions experienced during local trips. However, the determination of the median speed on a seg- ment is a more involved process than determining the overall level of service since different seg- 2000 PUBLIC F ACILTITIES CAPACITY ASSESSMENT TRANSPORTATION PAGE 33 MONROE COUNTY PLANNING & ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES ments have different conditions. The Land Development Regulations re- quire each segment of the highway to main- tain a level of service of 'e' or better. The level of service criteria for segment speeds on US-1 in Monroe County depends on the flow characteristics and the posted speed limits within the given segment. Flow char- acteristics relate to the ability of a vehicle to travel through a particular segment without being slowed or stopped by traffic signals or other devices. Segments with a series of permanent traffic signals or other similar traf- fic control devices in close proximity to each other are considered to be "Interrupted Flow Segments", and are expected to have longer travel times due to the delays caused by these signals or control devices. Roadway segments without a series of signals or con- trol devices are considered to be "Uninter- rupted Flow Segments". Uninterrupted seg- ments may have one or more traffic signals, but they are not in close proximity to one another as in the interrupted segment case. The methodology used to determine median speed and level of service on a particular segment is based upon that segment's sta- tus as an interrupted or uninterrupted flow segment. There are two interrupted segments of US-1 in the Keys: Segment 1 in Stock Is- land, and Segment 13 in Marathon; the re- mainder of the segments are considered as uninterrupted. However, there are some un- interrupted segments which do have signal controls, like Segment 10 on Big Pine Key. In these situations, the travel time taken to traverse an uninterrupted segment with a traffic signal is reduced by 25 seconds to account for the possible delay resulting from traffic signal. In addition to different methodologies, there are different level of service standards for interrupted or uninterrupted roadway segments. The following chart shows the different standards for a roadway segment based upon its flow characteristics. Figure 25: Level of Service Standards Based on Flow Characteristics Level of Service A B C D E F Level of Service A B C o E F A map of the segment boundaries, and a description of their locations are found on the following pages. TRANSPORTATION 2000 PUBLIC FACILITIES CAPACITY ASSESSMENT PAGE 34 MONROE COUNTY PLANNING & ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES Figure 26: Map of US-l Segments The number inside the box is the roadway segment number. The letter in pa- renthesis is the 2000 level of service (LOS) measure- ment for the segment. ~- ~ ~21 (C) I The Middle Keys '" ~ .. '\ );9(Cl2lO B \~ ~ ->" ~ '\ ~ Gili] :'i , . The Lower Keys t ~. ... ~ Source: 2000 Arterial and Travel Time Delay Study & The Monroe County GIS Department 2000 PUBLIC F ACILTITIES CAPACITY ASSESSMENT PAGE 35 TRANSPORTATION MONROE COUNTY PLANNING & ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES Figure 27: Description of US-l Roadway Segments Segment Approx. Mile Approx. Number Marker Ranae Control Points Key( s) PAED Beainnina Endina Beainnina Endina Stock Island, Key 1 4.0 5.0 Cow Key Bridae (N) Key Haven Boulevard Haven 1 2 5.0 9.0 Kev Haven Boulevard Rockland Drive Boca Chica, Rockland 2 3 9.0 10.5 Rockland Drive Boca Chica Road Bia Coooitt 2 Harris Channel Bridge 4 10.5 16.5 Boca Chica Road (N) Shark, Saddlebunch 3 Harris Channel Bridge Bow Channel Bridge Lower & Upper 5 16.5 20.5 (N) (N\ Suaarloaf 3 Bow Channel Bridge 6 20.5 23 (N) Soan ish Main Drive Cudioe 4A 7 23 25 Spanish Main Drive East Shore Drive Summerland 4A Torch-Ramrod Bridge 8 25 27.5 East Shore Drive (5) Ramrod 4A Torch-Ramrod Bridge N. Pine Channel 9 27.5 29.5 (5\ Bridae (N\ Little Torch 4A N. Pine Channel 10 29.5 33 Bridae (N) Lona Beach Drive Bia Pine 5 W. Summerland, 11 33 40 Lona Beach Drive 7- Mile Bridae (5) Bahia Honda, Ohio 6 12 40 47 7- Mile Bridae (5) 7- Mile Bridae (N) 7 -Mile Bridae 6 Vaca, Key Colony 13 47 54 7- Mile Bridae (N) Cocoa Plum Drive Beach 7 Toms Harbor Ch Fat Deer Crawl, 14 54 60.5 Cocoa Plum Drive Bridae (5) Grassv 8 Toms Harbor Ch 15 60.5 63 Bridae (5) Lona Key Bridae (5) Duck, Conch 10 16 63 73 Lonq Kev Bridae (5\ Channel #2 Bridae (N) Lona, Fiesta, Craiq 11 Lignum Vitae Bridge 17 73 77.5 Channel #2 Bridae (N) (5) Lower Matecumbe 12A Lignum Vitae Bridge Tea Table Relief 18 77.5 79.5 (5) Bridae (N) Fill 12A Tea Table Relief Whale Harbor Bridge 19 79.5 84 Bridae (N) (5) UDDer Matecumbe 13 Whale Harbor Bridge Snake Creek Bridge 20 84 86 (5) (N) Windlev 12B Snake Creek Bridge 21 86 91.5 (N) Ocean Boulevard Plantation 14 22 91.5 99.5 Ocean Boulevard Atlantic Boulevard Tavernier 15 & 16 23 99.5 106 Atlantic Boulevard C-905 Kev Larao 17 - 20 24 106 112.5 C-905 Countv Line Sian Kev Laroo, Cross Key 22 NOTE: (N) and (5) refer to the north and south side of the bridges respectively Source: 2000 Arterial Delay and Travel Time Study, URS Greiner, Inc. TRANSPORTATION PAGE 36 2000 PUBLIC FACILITIES CAPACITY ASSESSMENT MONROE COUNTY PLANNING & ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES The median segment speeds recorded for the 2000 Arterial and Travel Time Delay Study range from a maximum of 58.4 mph (LOS A) in the Boca Chica segment to a minimum of 30.5 mph (LOS B) in the Stock Island segment. The median overall speed during the 2000 study was 46.4 mph, which is 0.3 mph lower than the 1999 median speed of 46.7 mph. The chart below sum- marizes the level of service scores for all 24 segments of US-1 in 2000 and 1999. Figure 28: Level of Service by Roadway Segment 1999-2000 Seg- LOS in LOS in Change ment # Key 2000 1999 in LOS 1 Stock Isl. B C f 2 Boca Chica A A ..... 3 Bia Coppitt C C ..... 4 Saddlebunch B B ..... 5 Suaarloaf C B . 6 Cudioe A A ..... 7 Summerland B B ..... 8 Ramrod A A ..... 9 Torch A A ..... 10 Bia Pine D E 't 11 Bahia Honda B B ..... 12 7 Mile Bridae A A ..... 13 Marathon A A ..... 14 Grassy Key C C ..... 15 Duck Kev C C ..... 16 Lona Key B B ..... 17 L. Matecumbe C D . 18 Tea Table C D + 19 U. Matecumbe C C ..... 20 Windley B B ..... 21 Plantation C B . 22 Tavernier A A ..... 23 Kev Lamo A A ..... 24 Cross C B . Source: 2000 Arterial Travel Time & Delay Study, URS Greiner, Inc. As depicted in the chart, the breakdown in roadway segments by their level of ser- vice in 2000 is as follows: LOS A (8) LOS B (6) LOS C (9) LOS D (1) LOS E (0) LOS F (0) Compared to last year's (1999) study results, there are changes to seven seg- ments. The Stock Island segment experi- enced a LOS increase from 'C' to 'B', the Lower Matecumbe and Tea Table segments experienced a LOS increase from 'D' to 'C', and Big Pine Key experienced a LOS in- crease from 'E' to 'D'. The Sugarloaf, Plan- tation and Cross Key segments decreased from a LOS 'B' to LOS 'C'. The remaining seventeen segments maintained their level of service from 1999 to 2000. In addition to the level of service, the 2000 Arterial Delay and Travel Time Study investigates the median speed for each roadway segment. The median speed is the speed which falls in the middle of all the speeds recorded during the 28 required trips through a roadway segment. During the 2000 study, the median segment speeds de- creased in 8 of the 24 segments ranging between 0.2 mph to 3.0 mph. The remain- ing sixteen segments experienced an in- crease in median speeds, ranging between 0.1 mph to 3.1 mph. None of the changes in median speed could be attributed to any specific change in conditions except the changes in traffic volumes, and the signal timings. The following graphs show the changes in segment speed for each of the three ser- vice areas. The source for these graphs is the 2000 Arterial Travel Time and Delay Study prepared by URS Greiner, Inc. 2000 PUBLIC F ACILTITIES CAPACITY ASSESSMENT TRANSPORTATION PAGE 37 MONROE COUNTY PLANNING & ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES Figure 29: Changes in Median Speed by Segment 1992-2000 60.00 55.00 50.00 "0 45.00 Q) Q) tli 40.00 c al '6 35.00 Q) :::i: 30.00 25.00 ~~ RlCJ- RI":J ~ RI':> Rll"o ~ RICO RIO) rS:) ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ Stock Island __ Boca O1ica Big Coppitt --+0-- Saddlebunch ____ Sugarloaf ____ Cudjoe --+- Surrrrerland - RanTod - Torch ---.- Big Ane Bahia I-bnda 60.00 55.00 50.00 "0 45.00 Q) Q) tli 40.00 c al '6 35.00 Q) :::i: 30.00 25.00 ~. L-~---i ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ RI ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 7-Mle Bridge ~ fv1arathon __ Grassy Duck --x-- Long ____ L. fv1atecurrtJe 60.00 55.00 50.00 "0 45.00 Q) Q) tli 40.00 c al '6 35.00 Q) :::i: 30.00 25.00 ~ ~--.-.'"ii--~ ~/ ~( ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ RI ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ Tea Table __ U. fv1atecurrtJe Windley -x-- Aantation ____ Tavernier ____ Largo --+- Cross It is important to remember that the level of service criteria varies by segment. In other words, a segment may maintain an LOS of 'C' or higher, but may have a me- dian speed below 45 mph. This results from the fact that the LOS requirements for seg- ments are adjusted based upon the posted speed limit and presence of traffic signals or other traffic control devices. This is how some segments may have a median speed as low as 30.5 mph, but maintain an LOS of '8'. The chart below lists the median speeds by segment for 1999 and 2000. Figure 30: Median Speeds by Segment 1999-2000 Stock Island 27.3 30.5 3.1 Boca Chica 57.0 58.4 1.4 Bi Co itt 45.5 46.9 1.4 Saddlebunch 52.8 53.5 0.7 Su artoaf 51.4 49.4 -2.1 Cud'oe 47.6 48.7 1.1 Summertand 45.2 45.3 0.1 Ramrod 47.8 47.1 -0.7 Torch 47.7 47.1 -0.7 Bi Pine 34.1 35.8 1.7 Bahia Honda 52.1 53.0 0.9 7 -Mile Brid e 52.6 52.4 -0.2 Marathon 37.4 38.2 0.8 Grass 50.7 50.8 0.1 Duck 53.1 53.5 0.4 Lon 52.1 52.5 0.4 L. Matecumbe 50.4 50.7 0.4 Tea Table 49.6 50.3 0.7 U. Matecumbe 41.6 41.2 -0.3 Windle 38.4 39.5 1.2 Plantation 42.0 39.0 -3.0 Tavernier 49.1 48.8 -0.3 Lar 0 45.7 46.8 1.1 Cross 50.5 47.7 -2.7 Source: URS Greiner, Inc. PAGE 38 2000 PUBLIC FACILITIES CAPACITY ASSESSMENT TRANSPORTATION MONROE COUNTY PLANNING & ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES Reserve Capacities The difference between the median speed and the LOS C standard gives the reserve speed, which is converted into an estimated reserve capacity of additional traf- fic volume and corresponding additional development. The median overall speed of US-1 in 2000 is 46.4 mph, which is a decrease of .03 mph from the 1999 overall median speed of 46.7 mph. Comparing the 2000 overall median speed to the LOS 'c' stan- dard of 45 mph yields an overall reserve speed of 1.4 mph. By using a formula de- veloped by the US-1 Level of Service Task Force, the reserve speed for 2000 can be converted into an estimated reserve capac- ity of approximately 25,966 trips for US-1. The reserve capacity for US-1 was reduced 5,564 trips from 1999 to 2000. The estimated reserve volume (25,966 trips) can then be converted into an esti- mated capacity for additional residential de- velopment, assuming balanced growth of other land uses, and using the following for- mula: Residential Capacity = Reserve Volume Trip Generation Rate x % Impact on US-1 Residential Capacity = 25.966 (8 trips per day per unit) x 0.8 Residential Capacity = 4,926 units Applying the formula for reserve volume to each of the 24 segments of US-1 indi- vidually gives maximum reserve volume of trips for all segments. The maximum re- serve volume for all segments equals 93,693 total trips for US-1. This maximum reserve volume is unobtainable due to the constraint imposed by the overall reserve volume of 25,966 trips mentioned above. As statedearlier, the Land Development Regulations mandate a minimum level of service of 'C' for all roadway segments of US-1. However, the regulations and FDOT policy do allow segments that fail to meet the LOS C standards in a given year to re- ceive an additional allocation of trips pro- vided the median travel speed for the seg- ment is within 95% of the of the LOS C speed for that segment. This additional al- location is referred to as the "reserve ca- pacity" for the segment. The resulting flexibility allows a limited amount of additional land development to continue until traffic speeds are measured again next year or until remedial actions are implemented. These segments are candi- dates for designations as either "back- logged" or "constrained" by FDOT. Appli- cations for new development located within backlogged or constrained segments are re- quired to undergo a thorough traffic analy- sis as part of the review process. Based on this year's results, the Big Pine Key segment (# 10) continues to be below the LOS C threshold since the median travel speed (35.8 mph) is below the minimum speed required to maintain LOS C condi- tions (37.7 mph). In addition, since the median speed is less than 95% of the re- quired minimum speed, this segment has no reserve capacity, which means that no additional trips can be allocated to this seg- ment of US-1. When no additional trips can be allocated to a particular roadway seg- ment, then it is considered as "inadequate" from a public facility standpoint. The Land Development Regulations indicate that no additional development which could impact an inadequate public facility may be per- mitted. As a result, the current moratorium 2000 PUBLIC F ACILTITIES CAPACITY ASSESSMENT TRANSPORTATION PAGE 39 MONROE COUNTY PLANNING & ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES on development activities which would cre- ate additional traffic on US-1 must be main- tained on Big Pine and No Name Key. The Big Pine Key segment is the only segment of US-1 that can be considered as inadequate based upon the 2000 Arterial Travel Time and Delay Study. The 1999 study indicated that two segments (Seg- ments 17 Lower Matecumbe & 18 Tea Table) in addition to the Big Pine segment were inadequate in 1999. In addition to the requirement that areas with inadequate public facilities be identified in the annual assessment, the Land Devel- opment Regulations also require those ar- eas with marginally adequate public facili- ties to be identified. For the purposes of this report, US-1 segments with reserve speeds of less than or equal to 3 mph in 2000 are considered as "marginally ad- equate". Any applications for new develop- ment which would generate traffic in mar- ginally adequate areas must submit a de- tailed traffic report for consideration during review. This year's report indicates that the 1.5 mile segment of US-1 beginning at MM 9.0 on Rockland Key to MM 10.5 in Shark Key (Segment # 3), the 4 mile segment on Up- per and Lower Sugarloaf (Segment # 5), the 30 mile stretch of US-1 beginning at MM 54.0 in Grassy Key to MM 84 in Upper Matecumbe (Segments 14-19), Plantation Key (Segment # 21), and Cross Key (Seg- ment # 24) are all marginally adequate. The 1999 report indicated only four segments as marginally adequate, but this number has increased to nine segments in 2000. Figure 31 summarizes each segment's status in 2000. Figure 31: US-1 Segment Status in 2000 2000 # Segment LOS 2000 Status 1 Stock Island B Adeauate 2 Boca Chica A Adenuate 3 Bia CODDitt C MARGINAL 4 Saddlebunch B Adeauate 5 Suaarloaf C MARGINAL 6 Cudioe A Adeauate 7 Summerland B Adeauate 8 Ramrod A Adenuate 9 Torch A Adeauate 10 Bia Pine D INADEOUATE 11 Bahia Honda B Adeauate 12 7 -Mile Bridae A Adenuate 13 Marathon A Adeauate 14 Grassv C MARGINAL 15 Duck C MARGINAL 16 Lona B Adenuate 17 L. Matecumbe C MARGINAL 18 Tea Table C MARGINAL 19 U. Matecumbe C MARGINAL 20 Windlev B Adeauate 21 Plantation C MARGINAL 22 Tavernier A Adeauate 23 Larao A Adenuate 24 Cross C MARGINAL Source: 2000 Arterial Delay & Travel TIme Study, URS Greiner, Inc. Level of Service on County Roads Section 9.5-292 of the Land Develop- ment Regulations establishes a level of ser- vice standard of LOS D for all County roads, as measured on a volume or annual aver- age daily traffic (AADT) basis. Based on the results of this analysis as shown on Table 4.7 in the Monroe County Year 2010 Comprehensive Plan Technical Document, all of the County roads exam- ined are operating at or above the County standard of LOS D. TRANSPORTATION 2000 PUBLIC FACILITIES CAPACITY ASSESSMENT PAGE 40 MONROE COUNTY PLANNING & ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES Improvements to Roadway Facilities Major improvements scheduled for US- 1 are outlined in the Florida Department of Transportation Five-Year Work Program. The major project for unincorporated Mon- roe County in the current FDOT Work Pro- gram (1999/2000 to 2003/04) is to replace the Jewfish Creek drawbridge with a high- level fixed-span bridge and the installation of culverts to improve the tidal flow to the surrounding wetlands. The construction phase for this project is 2001/02. Other projects on the 5-year transporta- tion plan include planning, project develop- ment and environmental design for decreas- ing vehicular interactions with Key Deer on US-1 between North Pine Channel and the Spanish Harbor Bridge. Another project is the planning, project development and en- vironmental design for adding turn lanes to US-1 on Big Cop pitt Key from the Rockland Channel Bridge to Old Boca Chica Road. Additionally, the repair/rehabilitation of the Jewfish Creek Bridge deck and the resur- facing of US-1 from South of the Jewfish Creek Bridge to the Dade County line are scheduled for 2003/04. In addition to road projects on US-1 , the construction of bicycle paths are also on the work schedule for the upcoming five years. These projects include construction of bike paths in the following locations: - Big Coppitt Key from MM 11 to MM 15 - Grassy Key from MM 54.5 to MM 59.5 - connecting Bahia Honda to Little Duck Key - connecting Bay Point on Saddlebunch Key to Sugarloaf Key - connecting MM 5.2 on Key Haven to MM 9.6 on Big Coppit Key - MM 59.2 on Grassy Key to MM 65.2 on Long Key - MM 25 on Summerland Key to MM 37 on Bahia Honda Key - MM 16.5 Sugarloaf Key to MM 24.5 on Summerland Key - MM 68.4 to MM 73.8 Finally, the FDOT is planning a recre- ational pedestrian facility for MM47 on Knights Key, known as Sunset Park. Copies of the FDOT's most recent Five Year Work Program are available at the Monroe County Planning Department of- fices in Marathon. Summary The Land Development Regulations pro- vide clear guidance for assessing the ca- pacity of the roadway system in Monroe County. US-1 is required to maintain at least a level of service of 'C', while County roads must maintain a level of service of 'D'. Level of service is determined using the speed- based methodology developed by the US- 1 Level of Service Task Force in 1993. The speed based methodology utilizes the em- pirical relationship between volume-based capacities, and median vehicle speeds. The level of service for US-1 is measured for the overall 1 08 miles of the roadway as well as for the 24 individual segments making up the roadway in the Keys. The traffic volumes on US-1 have in- creased since 1999. The three count loca- tions on US-1: Big Pine, Marathon, and Upper Matecumbe, have shown a histori- cal traffic growth (based on a regression analysis) of 1.3%, 1.4% and 2.4% per year respectively. The seven day traffic volumes recorded at Upper Matecumbe during the 2000 study was the highest over the eight years for that segment. The overall travel speed on US-1 for 2000 PUBLIC F ACILTlTIES CAPACITY ASSESSMENT TRANSPORTATION PAGE 41 MONROE COUNTY PLANNING & ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES 2000 is 0.3 mph lower compared to the 1999 overall travel speed. The reserve speed for the entire length of US-1 is 1.4 miles per hour. This means that the entire segment is operating with only marginal capacity. Compared to 1999 data, the travel speeds on 16 of the 24 segments increased. They are: Grassy (+0.1 mph) Summerland (+0.1 mph) Duck (+0.4 mph) Long (+0.4 mph) L. Matecumbe (+0.4 mph) Tea Table (+ 0.7 mph) Saddle Bunch (+0.7 mph) Marathon (+0.8 mph) Bahia Honda (+0.9 mph) Cudjoe (+ 1.1 mph) Key Largo (+ 1.1 mph) Windley (1.2 mph) Big Coppitt (+1.4 mph) Boca Chica (+1.4 mph) Big Pine (+1.7 mph) Stock Island (+3.1 mph) Travel speeds on remaining eight seg- ments have decreased. They are: 7-Mile Bridge (-0.2 mph) Tavernier (-0.3 mph) U. Matecumbe (-0.3 mph) Ramrod (-0.7 mph) Torch (-0.7 mph) Sugarloaf (-2.1 mph) Cross (-2.2 mph) Plantation (-3.0 mph) Compared to last year's (1999) study results, there are changes to seven seg- ments. The Stock Island segment experi- enced a LOS increase from 'C' to 'B'. The Lower Matecumbe and Tea Table segments experienced a LOS increase from 'D' to 'C' , and the Big Pine Key segment experienced a LOS increase from 'E' to 'D'. The Sugarloaf Key, Plantation Key and Cross Key segments dropped from LOS 'B' to LOS 'e'. The largest speed increase of 3.1 mph was recorded in Stock Island Key segment. The same segment was recorded for larg- est reduction during the last year's study. The largest speed reduction of 3.0 mph was recorded in the Plantation Key segment for this year's study. US-1 segments with reserve speeds of less than or equal to 3 mph are considered to be "marginally adequate" and should be given particular attention when approving development applications. These segments include: the 1.5 mile segment of US-1, be- ginning at MM 9.0 on Rockland Key to MM 10.5 in Shark Key, the 4 mile segment be- ginning at MM 16.5 on Sugarloaf Key to MM 20.5 in Cudjoe Key and the 30 mile stretch of US-1 beginning at MM 54.0 in Grassy Key to MM 84 in Upper Matecumbe, a 5.5 mile stretch segment beginning at MM 86.0 in Plantation and ending at MM 91.5 in Tavernier, and a 6.5 mile stretch segment beginning at MM 106.0 in Cross Key and ending at MM 112.5. The Big Pine Key segment has the low- est level of service in the County. Thissegment has a LOS of 'D', which is be- low the mandated capacity. Further, the segment is at 95% of the LOS C threshold and has no reserve capacity. Therefore it should be considered as an inadequate segment. As a result, the development moratorium for activities which could gen- erate additional traffic should be maintained. All County roads have levels of service above the required standard of 'D'. TRANSPORTATION PAGE 42 2000 PUBLIC FACILITIES CAPACITY ASSESSMENT MONROE COUNTY PLANNING & ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES P 0 TA W A T B L E E R The Florida Keys Aqueduct Authority (FKAA) is the provider of potable water in the Florida Keys. The Biscayne Aquifer is the groundwater supply source for the FKAA. The wellfield is located in a pineland preserve west of Florida City in Dade County. The FKAA wellfield contains some of the highest quality groundwater in the State, meeting or exceeding all regulatory standards prior to treatment. Strong laws protect the wellfield from potentially con- taminating adjacent land uses. Beyond the County's requirements, FKAA is committed to comply with and surpass all federal and state water quality standards and require- ments. The groundwater from the wellfield is treated at the J. Robert Dean Water Treat- ment Facility in Florida City, which currently has a maximum water treatment capacity of 22.5 million gallons per day (MGD). The facility has regulatory approval to withdraw up to 19.19 MGD of water from the wellfield. In 1999, the FKAA distributed 5.953 billion gallons of water to the Florida Keys. The water treatment process consists primarily of lime softening, filtration, disin- fection and fluoridation. The treated water is pumped to the Florida Keys through a 130 mile long pipeline at a maximum pres- sure of 250 pounds per square inch (psi). The pipeline varies in diameter from 36 inches in Key Largo to 18 inches in Key West. The FKAA distributes the treated water through 641 miles of distribution pip- ing ranging in size from % inch to 12 inches in diameter. In 1999, the FKAA replaced over 74,000 feet of various size distribution water mains. The FKAA's Water Distribu- tion System Upgrade Plan calls for the up- grade or replacement of 118,720 feet of water main during fiscal year 2000-01. The FKAA maintains storage tank facili- ties which provide an overall storage capac- ity of 39.7 million gallons system wide. The size of the tanks vary from 0.2 to 5.0 million gallons. These tanks are utilized during periods of peak water demand and serve as an emergency water supply. Since the existing transmission line serves the entire Florida Keys (including Key West), and stor- age capacity is an integral part of the sys- tem, the capacity of the entire system must be considered together, rather than in sepa- rate service districts. In the summer of 1999, two reverse os- mosis (RO) desalinization plants were brought on line to produce emergency wa- ter supplies. The RO desalinization plants on Stock Island and in Marathon are op- erational, but are not yet capable of pro- ducing their designed capacities of 2.0 and 1.0 million gallons per day (MGD) of water, respectively. At present, Key West is the only area of the County served by a flow of potable wa- ter sufficient to fight fires. Outside of Key West, firefighters rely on a variety of water sources, including tankers, swimming pools, and salt water either from drafting sites on the open water or from specially constructed fire wells. Although sufficient flow to fight fires is not guaranteed in the County, new hydrants are being installed as water lines are replaced to make water available for fire fighting purposes. A map of the various FKAA facilities in the Keys is included on the following page. 2000 PUBLIC F ACILTITIES CAPACITY ASSESSMENT POTABLE WATER PAGE 43 MONROE COUNTY PLANNING & ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES Figure 32: FKAA Facilities i i i ~ ~ ~ u..~ @;)W2 w:> 52 a::1l.. lr! ~~ ~~!;l ~ON ~~~ III :> 'n. a:: 11. ~g:x: () a:: on O<(~ a:::r:.... \ ~ u~... <(~ z 9 ~o a:: f) W g ~ 2 'Z~!r~ u... ... ~,,:l! ffi 3~i? it cr 11. Q. \Q 0 ....g:x::r: ~ :l! 0200 ,... III ~ "!~ ~ N~N"" "'~ 3: w > cr:: w > o ::= w l- V> >- V> z 2 l-t; oZi 05 Iii 2a..~ CD' .0", '-ci15 ~ ~ ~ ~ ""11 a..n. 2::l! I- ::>::> if) Q.. 0- WQ..Q.. 3: I:r: 00 >- 00 w~'" "Y: N~' t--- Ov> za.. <(2 ...1::> (f)Q.. -a.. "X: I (.)0 o~ l- if)N ~ lrlr 22 zi?i? 011.11. ~:x::x: ~8SS <(Ill'" :2:NN a.. 2 ::> 11. 11. :I: o N '" a.. :l! ::> a.. a.. I I() co ... >- w ::.: I=lr _:l! a.i?~ g,a. ri:E u;ro~ "g mN ~ ~ <(lr Gl~ a:: 11. Oil.. ~~ If) -N ~ ::.: " z o ...J @;) I/> Q.. ~~. :l<:Q.. -1 a. ~:J: <(g a:: u'" 5@)~ :r:: III ~U'1 . ~ IX 11. ~~ i ~ 11. .., l-a. Vl;r ~g @)~ 01 1500lr tON 2 Z:> 011. Ill. ~:r ~~ ::iN L:iVl~ "X:~Iii:! :>O.n WQ.. . ZQ.. iiz o 0n mN lr@;) ~ lir:l! Q. 15l'o! 0. :2: :I ~>- U1 :::>W ~ (f)"x: N POTABLE WATER PAGE 44 2000 PUBLIC FACILITIES CAPACITY AsSESSMENT MONROE COUNTY PLANNING & ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES Demand for Potable Water Demand for potable water is influenced by many factors, including the size of the permanent resident and seasonal popula- tions, the demand for commercial water use, landscaping practices, conservation mea- sures, and the weather. The following table summarizes FKAA's historic withdrawals, in millions of gallons. The table also shows the percent change in withdrawal from one year to the next, the existing Water Use Per- mit (WUP) withdrawal limits, and the reserve capacity available for future development under the existing WUP. Figure 33: Annual Water Withdrawals 1980 to 1999 Annual WUP WUP Withdrawal % Limit Reserve Year (MG) Chanae (MGl (MG) 1980 2.854.9 - N/A N/A 1981 3 101.1 8.6% N/A N/A 1982 3.497.3 12.8% N/A N/A 1983 3 390.2 -3.1% N/A N/A 1984 3.467.5 2.3% 4450 982.5 1985 4139.2 19.4% 4.450 310.8 1986 4 641 .5 12.1% 5110 468.5 1987 4 794.6 3.3% 5.110 315.4 1988 4 819.8 0.5% 5110 290.2 1989 4 935.9 2.4% 5110 174.1 1990 4 404.1 -10.8% 5560 1 155.9 1991 4 286.0 -2.7% 5.560 1 274.0 1992 4 461.1 4.1% 5560 1 098.9 1993 5 023.9 12.6% 5560 536.1 1994 5 080.0 1.1% 5560 480.0 1995 5 140.4 1.2% 5778 637.6 1996 5 272.0 2.6% 5778 506.0 1997 5 356.0 1.6% 5778 422.0 1998 5 630.0 5.1% 5778 148.0 1999 5.935.3 5.4% 5778 0.0 WUP = 'SFWMD Water Use Permit" Source: FKAA, 2000 The following graph shows the relation- ship between the amount of water with- drawn on an annual basis and the limit of the Water Use Permit through the 1990s. Figure 34: FKAA Annual Water Withdrawal 1990-1999 6,000.0 ~ 5,500.0 .Q Iii C) 5,000.0 '0 ~ 4,500.0 ~ ~ 4,000.0 1,400.0 ~ 1,200.0 o 'iij 1,000.0 C) 800.0 '0 en 600.0 c: ~ 400.0 ~ 200.0 0.0 p'>l::) P.>..... p'>'l- p'>":J p.>~ p.>" p'>!O ~ p.>CO p'>C?I ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ t!*,,<,*,. Annual Withdraw I ~ WUP Urrit WUP Reserve p'>l::) P.>..... p'>'l- p'>":J ~ p.>" p'>!O ~ p.>co p'>C?I ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ Source: FKAA, 2000 FKAA's current Water Use Permit (Per- mit # 13-00005W) from the South Florida Water Management District was obtained in 1995, and is good for a period of ten years. The current WUP allows an aver- age daily water withdrawal of 15.83 million gallons per day (MGD), a maximum daily withdrawal of 19.19 MGD, and a yearly maximum of 5.778 billion gallons. PAGE 45 In April of 1999, the FKAA exceeded its maximum daily withdrawal amount of 19.19 MGD (with permission from the SFWMD). Data for 1999 indicated peaks in water us- age during the months of March, April and May. During these months, the maximum 2000 PUBLIC F ACILTITIES CAPACITY ASSESSMENT POTABLE WATER MONROE COUNTY PLANNING & ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES daily withdrawal was exceeded on random days, with approval from SFWMD. Also, based on 12 month running average daily withdrawal, as opposed to calendar year represented here, the existing WUP limit for March, April and May 1999 was exceeded by 1, 2 and 3%, respectively. These rea- sons behind these high withdrawals were a strong tourist season demand combined with an unusually severe drought. The drought fostered the need for frequent, deep irriga- tion to establish new landscaping installed to replace that damaged by Hurricane Georges and Tropical Storm Mitch. The FKAA has recognized the need to modify its current Water Use Permit to in- crease the maximum allowable withdrawals to ensure that the demand for potable wa- ter will be met. In April of 1999, the FKAA submitted a request to modify WUP 13- 0005DW from an average daily water with- drawallimit of 15.83 million gallons per day (MGD) to 21.51 MGD; a maximum daily with- drawal from 19.19 MGD to 24.9 MGD; and from a yearly maximum of 5.778 billion gal- lons to 7.357 billion gallons. Increases in permanent and seasonal population, in- creased commercial demand, and weather conditions were listed as the reasons for the permit revision request. The FKAA has been working with SFWMD and Monroe County to resolve is- sues related to changes in county-wide population and the associated per capita de- mand for water. The number of day visitors and the demand they place on the potable water supply is one of the major issues un- der consideration. The revised permit is pending, but the actual amount of the in- crease has not been resolved. The following chart shows the projected water demand for the Keys in 2000-2001. Figure 35: Projected Water Demand in 2000-2001 FKAA Permit 1999 Thresholds PumDage 2000 Water Demand Proiected Average Daily Withdrawal 15.83 16.31 Maximum Daily Withdrawal 19.19 20.24 Annual Withdrawal 5 778 5 953 (all figures are in millions of gallons) Source: FKAA, 2000 16.8 20.8 6132 As indicated in the above chart, the pro- jected demand is expected to exceed the available withdrawal limits in 2000. The maximum daily withdrawal projection of 20.8 million gallons has already been realized in May of 2000. Preliminary figures for 2000 indicate a total annual consumption of 3,247 million gallons as of June 1, 2000. It is likely that the annual withdrawal threshold of 5.7 billion gallons will again be surpassed in 2000. The FKAA is aware of the situation, and is working with SFWMD to finalize the revised WUP to reflect the increases in water demand. Research indicates that regardless of changes in the functional population from 1998 to 2000, there are no instances where the amount of water available per capita is insufficient to serve the population at the maximum rate of withdrawal permitted by FKAA's existing permit. The chart on the following page demonstrates the amount of water available on a per capita basis. POTABLE WATER 2000 PUBLIC FACILITIES CAPACITY ASSESSMENT PAGE 46 . w MONROE COUNTY PLANNING & ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES Figure 36: Per Capita Water Availability Year 1998 1999 2000 Maximum Daily Withdrawl allons 19190000 19190000 19190000 156120 157 172 159 113 As the chart indicates, there are over 100 gallons of water available per person per day. The 100 gallons per person per day standard is commonly accepted as appro- priate, and is reflected in Policy 701.1.1 of the Year 201 0 Comprehensive Plan. Since residential and overall levels of service are met by the current maximum daily with- drawal, and the water use permit was ex- ceeded in the Spring of 1999 and again in 2000, it can be reasoned that variables other than population demand for water are af- fecting the water consumption rates in Mon- roe County. These variables should be iden- tified and planned for. The 1999 Public Facility Capacity As- sessment Report indicated four recom- mended actions to be considered by the Board of County Commissioners with re- spect to potable water: - Continue to monitor water consump- tion and return to the Board for further direction - Prepare and adopt a series or ordi- nances related to water conservation, including plumbing efficiency standards, a landscaping ordinance, and a perma- nent irrigation ordinance - Work with the FKAA and SFWMD to examine bulk water sales - Enter into a memorandum of under- standing with the FKAA to address the above three items The Growth Management Division has continued to work with the FKAA on water consumption patterns and the revisions to the FKAA Water Use Permit. Revised plumbing efficiency standards have been implemented, and a landscaping ordinance is now in draft form. Efforts on a perma- nent irrigation ordinance should be coordi- nated with the Stormwater Master Plan ef- forts. The Growth Management Division has offered to work with the FKAA on the development of an intergovernmental team to discuss water conservation options since conservation efforts must be undertaken by all jurisdictions in the Keys to be success- ful. Improvements to Potable Water Facilities FKAA has a long-range capital improve- ment plan for both the distribution system and the transmission and supply system, as shown in the table below. The total cost of the scheduled improvements exceeds $40 million over the next 6 years. These projects are to be funded by hookup fees and water revenues. The scheduled distribution system im- provements include replacing and upgrad- ing lines in various subdivisions throughout the Lower, Middle, and Upper Keys. These improvements began in 1989, when FKAA embarked on the Distribution System Up- grade Program to replace approximately 190 miles of galvanized lines. For the 1999/ 2000 fiscal year, FKAA is scheduled to up- grade approximately 69,300 feet of distri- bution water mains. 2000 PUBLIC FACILTITIES CAPACITY ASSESSMENT POTABLE WATER PAGE 47 MONROE COUNTY PLANNING & ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES In addition to improvements to the distribution system, FKAA also has significant improve- ments planned for the transmission and supply system. FKAA expects to expand the treat- ment capacity at the J. Robert Dean Water Treatment Plant to meet future water demands. Also, the FKAA is planning improvements to the pump stations to improve flow and pressure and construction of water storage tanks to provide additional emergency water supply. The chart below shows a small example of the capital improvements to the potable water system planned by the FKAA. Figure 37: FKAA Capital Improvement Program Project 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 t TOTAL I Water Treatment Plant $ 175000 $ 500 000 $ 600 000 $ 1 275 000 $ 500 000 $ 300,000 $ 600 000 350 000 $ 150 000 $ 500 000 250 000 $ 250 000 $ 500 000 750 000 $ 750000 1 100000 $ 1,100000 250 000 $ 125,000 $ 375,000 01 stributlon ;;vstem Replace Distribution PiDe $ 3 000 000 $ 3 000 000 $ 3 000 000 S; 3 000 000 s; 3 000 000 $ 2 000 000 S; 17 000 000 Key West Plan S; PumD Station $ 50 000 $ 750 000 $ 700 000 1 500 000 Big Coppitt Tank & Pumo Station $ 550,000 $ 550 000 Summerland/Cudjoe Tank & Pumo Station $ 50 000 $ 350,000 $ 350 000 $ 750 000 Vaca Cut Tank & PumD Station $ 250,000 $ 250 000 $ 500 000 Islamorada Tanks $ 100,000 $ 100,000 $ 200 000 Big Pine Pump Station $ 65 000 S; 65 000 Storage Tank Drain Wells $ 150 000 $ 150,000 Transmission S stem Water Tank Long Ke Station Water Tank Ramrod Station Add Pump a Marathon $ 1,250,000 $ 1,250,000 $ 1 250 000 1 250 000 $ 500 000 $ 500 000 Jewfish Creek DOT Cross Ke Key Largo Beoste Pum Station $ $ 1,000,000 $ 1,000,000 $ 1,200 000 $ 1 ,200 000 $ 2 400 000 200 000 $ 2 200 000 $ 2,200 000 $ 4,600 000 Source: FKAA, 2000 POTABLE WATER PAGE 48 2000 PUBLIC FACILITIES CAPACITY ASSESSMENT MONROE COUNTY PLANNING & ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES EDUCATIONAL FACILITIES This element of the Public Facilities Capacity report will be omitted once Policy 1401.4.1 of the Monroe County Year 2010 Comprehensive Plan is implemented. This policy requires the establishment of a Con- currency Management System (CMS). The CMS will ensure that no new development permits will be issued unless adequate pub- lic facilities needed to support the develop- ment at the level of service (LOS) stan- dards for all of the public facility types are available concurrent with the impacts of development. Existing School Facilities The Monroe County School Board over- sees the operation of 13 public schools lo- cated throughout the Keys. Their data in- cludes both unincorporated and incorpo- rated Monroe County. The system consists of three high schools, one middle school, three middle/elementary schools, and five elementary schools. Each school offers athletic fields, computer labs, a cafeterium that serves as both a cafeteria and auditorium, and bus service. Roughly 90 school bus- ses transport about 4,452 students to and from school each day. In addition to these standard facilities, all high schools and some middle schools offer gymnasiums. The school system is divided into three subdistricts that are simi- lar, but not identical to the service areas outlined in Section 9.5-292 of the Land Development Regula- tions. One difference is that the Coral Shores High School 9-12 Key Largo Elementary/Middle School K-8 Plantation Key Elementary/Middle School (K-8) School Board includes Fiesta Key and the islands that make up Islamorada in the Up- per Keys (Subdistrict 1), while the Land De- velopment Regulations place them in the Middle Keys (Subdistrict 2). Also, the School Board includes Key West in the Lower Keys (Subdistrict 3), while the Land Development Regulations do not consider Key West. The data presented in this sec- tion are based on the School Board's sub- districts. Subdistrict 1 covers the Upper Keys from Key Largo to Lower Matecumbe Key and includes one high school and two elemen- tary/middle schools, as shown in Figure 39. Subdistrict 2 covers the Middle Keys from Long Key to the Seven Mile Bridge and in- cludes one high/middle school and one el- ementary school. Subdistrict 3 covers the Lower Keys, from Bahia Honda to Key West and includes one high school, one middle school, one elementary/middle school, and five elementary schools. The chart below lists the schools by sub- district and school type. Figure 38: Schools by Subdistrict Subdistrict 1 Subdistrict 2 Marathon Middle/High School 7-12 Subdistrict 3 Key West High School 9-12 Stanley Switlik Elementa K-6 Source: Monroe County School Board, 2000 2000 PUBLIC F ACILTITIES CAPACITY ASSESSMENT EDUCATION PAGE 49 MONROE COUNTY PLANNING & ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES Figure 39: Educational Facilities in Monroe County Key Largo Elementary The map below shows the loca- tions of the educational facilities in Monroe County. .... Plantation Key Elementary/Middle Coral Shores High Stanley Switli k Elementary Marathon Hig, Horace O'Bryant Middle Poinciana Elementary Sigsbee Elementary Gerald Adams 't:Jh "\ Elementary " 0: . . .. . or Key West High Glynn Archer Elementary Reynold Elementary Source: Monroe County GIS Department EDUCATION PAGE 50 2000 PUBLIC FACILITIES CAPACITY ASSESSMENT MONROE COUNTY PLANNING & ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES Demand for School Facilities The population of school age children in Monroe County is influenced by many fac- tors, including the size of the resident and seasonal populations; national demo- graphic trends such as the "baby boom" generation and decreasing household size; economic factors such as military employ- ment and the price and availability of hous- ing; and the movements of seasonal resi- dents. The School Board collects enrollment data periodically throughout the year. Counts taken in the winter are typically the highest, due to the presence of seasonal residents. The following charts show the fall school enrollments from 1989 to 1999 by subdistrict as taken from the School Board's Fall Student Survey. Figure 40: Fall School Enrollments 1989-1999 I 1989 1990 I 1991 1992 I 1993 T 1994 T 1995 1996 I 1997 I 1998 T 1999 Subdistrict 1 Coral Shores (H) 544 582 550 605 597 649 702 672 701 757 758 Kev Larno (ElM) 976 1 029 1 008 1 310 1 213 1235 1 198 1223 1273 1253 1 183 Plantation (E/M) 530 598 627 718 698 721 737 730 703 675 643 Subtotal 2050 2209 2.185 2633 2.508 2605 2.637 2625 2.677 2.685 2.584 Subdistrict 2 Marathon (H) 513 517 516 545 523 578 642 637 612 637 660 Switlik (E) 720 689 731 734 775 776 769 782 815 834 791 Subtotal 1.233 1.206 1247 1.279 1.298 1.354 1.411 1.419 1.427 1.471 1.451 Subdistrict 3 Kev West (H) 1 155 1 114 1 076 1 114 1 120 1 155 1255 1 237 1 327 1372 1 344 O'Brvant (M) 761 788 772 852 902 876 909 897 863 899 814 Suaarloaf (ElM) 827 863 934 899 810 1039 1 013 987 960 937 913 Adams (E) 470 518 522 541 529 516 486 500 499 574 566 Archer (E) 441 440 493 480 441 462 454 454 520 493 460 Poinciana (E) 485 503 507 521 566 613 626 637 608 620 632 Siasbee (E) 482 528 476 471 400 431 431 398 404 423 393 Sands 44 63 86 81 81 85 52 52 58 1 Subtotal 4665 4817 4866 4.959 4849 5177 5226 5.162 5239 5.319 5.122 TOTAL 7.948 8.232 8.298 8.871 8.655 9.136 9.274 9.206 9.343 9.475 9.157 10,000 9,500 9,136 9,343 9,157 8,871 9,000 9,274 9,206 9,475 8,500 8,232 8,000 8,655 8,298 7,500 7,948 7,000 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 --+- Total Fall School 81rollment Source: Monroe County School Board, 2000 2000 PUBLIC F ACILTITIES CAPACITY ASSESSMENT EDUCATION PAGE 51 e MONROE COUNTY PLANNING & ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES Level of Service of School Facilities The Monroe County Land Development Regulations do not identify a numeric level of service standard for schools (such as 1 0 square feet of classroom space per student). Instead, Section 9.5-292 of the regulations requires classroom capacity "adequate" to accommodate the school-age children gen- erated by proposed land development. The School Board uses recommended capacities provided by the Florida Depart- ment of Education (FDOE) to determine each school's capacity. All schools have adequate reserve capacity to accommodate the impacts of the additional land develop- ment activities projected for 2000. Figure 41 shows each school's capacity and the projected number of students. Figure 41: School Capacity & Projected Number of Students Recom- Students Students mended Projected Projected Capacity 1999-2000 2001-2002 Subdistrict 1 Coral Shores 868 851 851 Kev Larao 1240 1223 1223 Plantation 971 798 791 SUBTOTAL 3079 2.872 2.865 Subdistrict 2 Marathon 1 018 703 703 Switlik 925 787 787 SUBTOTAL 1.943 1.490 1.490 Subdistrict 3 Kev West 1 349 1.230 1230 O'Brvant 833 838 838 Suaarloaf 1 356 934 934 Adams 547 510 510 Archer 470 409 409 Poinciana 660 643 643 Siasbee 534 332 332 Sands - - - SUBTOTAL 5.749 4.896 3789 TOTAL 10.771 9.258 8.144 Improvements to School Facilities Florida Statute 163.3177 requires coun- ties to identify lands and zoning districts needed to accommodate future school ex- pansions. In order to bring the Monroe County Year 201 0 Comprehensive Plan into compliance with this statute, in 1998 the Monroe County Planning Department and School Board conducted research to deter- mine the existing school capacity and the potential need for future educational facili- ties in Monroe County. This study focused on land requirements for each of the schools expansion needs. Overall, the County has sufficient vacant and appropriately zoned land to meet the area's current and future school siting needs. The specific land requirements for the public schools in the County are dis- cussed below. Key Largo School Meeting the substantial land require- ments of Key Largo School is a top pri- ority of the School Board. The Depart- ment of Education (DOE) has instructed the Monroe County School Board to construct an additional 37,375 square feet of school space. However, current land use regulations prohibit the School Board from construction of any addi- tional facilities on or adjacent to its cur- rent site due to the environmental sen- sitivity of the area. The School Board recently made an unsuccessful attempt to purchase a new site on which to build the required school facilities. Unless the Board is able to provide these fa- cilities in Key Largo they will be non- compliant with the minimum DOE stan- dards. Fully utilizing the current Key EDUCATION PAGE 52 2000 PUBLIC FACILITIES CAPACITY ASSESSMENT MONROE COUNTY PLANNING & ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES Largo site would enable the School Board to meet their DOE requirements and to minimize other secondary envi- ronmental impacts associated with the construction of a new school. It has been determined that the School Board may clear the required amount of land, but the location of the clearing is still under review by the Planning and En- vironmental Resources Department. Plantation Key School The DOE has instructed the Monroe County School Board to construct an additional 54,81 0 square feet of school space for this school. The parcel of land for this school is not large enough to accommodate this development and regulations prohibit the School Board from constructing any_additional facili- ties on, or adjacent to, its current site due to the environmentally sensitive nature of the area. The new Village of Islamorada will address plans for Plan- tation Key School and other educational facilities in its comprehensive plan. Stanley Switlik Elementary Expanding the existing school facilities into the two parcels of land flanking the current site will accommodate the land requirements for Stanley Switlik El- ementary. The school has a new caf- eteria/kitchen/multipurpose building as well as new parking and ballfields. Construction on the new facilities will be complete in August of 2000. Marathon High and Middle School The land requirements for Marathon High and Middle School are currently being met. The School Board would like to build a new 13,000 square foot auditorium for this school that could also serve as a community center. Coral Shores High School The School Board's plan is to demolish the old school buildings and construct a new 200,000 square foot school on the same site. Construction is to occur in phases, with the school buildings scheduled for completion in 2.5 years. The second stage of construction will focus on the provision of athletic facili- ties. Demolition of the old structure be- gan in 2000. Overall, the School Board needs to add around 100,000 square feet to its current facilities to meet or exceed the Department of Education's requirements for school size. Figure 42 is a table showing the results of the investigation completed by the Mon- roe County School Board and Planning De- partment in 1998. 2000 PUBLIC FACILTITlES CAPACITY ASSESSMENT EDUCATION PAGE 53 .... u MONROE COUNTY PLANNING & ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES Figure 42: Preliminary Public School Land Needs Land Needed Developed Site 2003 Potential Sites (acres and Schools (acres and zoning) 1998 (estimate) zoning) There are approximately 70 acres of vacant land zoned SR 13.25 acres and 65 acres zoned NA Kev Laroo (SC & SR) 2 acres (1) o acres surroundina the current site. Plantation Kev 8.29 acres (SR) N/A (2) N/A N/A Coral Shores Hiah 20.13 acres (SR) N/A (2) N/A N/A There are approximately 5.1 Stanley Switlik 35.4 acres acres of vacant land zoned SC Elementarv 9.43 acres (SC) (3) o acres surroundinn the current site. There are approximately 21 Marathon High and 40.30 acres acres of vacant land zoned NA Middle Schools 14.12 acres (SR) (4) o acres surroundinn the current site. There are approximately 4.27 acres of vacant land zoned SC and 8.6 acres of vacant land Big Pine Neighborhood zoned IS surrounding the Elementarv 4.5 acres (SC) o acres o acres current site. There are approximately 27 acres of vacant land zoned NA and 34 acres zoned SR Suoarloaf 24 acres (SC & NA) o acres o acres surroundina the current site. 1 The School Board is working with Monroe County Planning Department to meet this need prior to 2003. 2 The Village of Islamorada will address plans for Plantation Key School, Coral Shores High School and other educational faciltites in their comprehensive plan. 3 The School Board purchased two lots zoned SC adjacent to the current school site to expand onto in 1998. 4 The School Board wants to partner with the County to create an auditorium that also serves as a community center. Source: Monroe County Planning Department, 2000 EDUCATION PAGE 54 2000 PUBLIC FACILITIES CAPACITY ASSESSMENT MONROE COUNTY PLANNING & ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES Site Kev Laroo Lona Kev Cudioe Old Site Closed 2/25/91 No Lonaer Active 0 New Site None Currentlv Inactive 180 000 Source: Monroe County Solid Waste Management Division, 2000 SOLID WASTE FACILITIES Monroe County's solid waste facilities are managed by the Solid Waste Manage- ment Division, which oversees a compre- hensive system of collection, recycling, and disposal of solid waste. Prior to 1990, the County's disposal methods consisted of in- cineration and landfilling at sites on Key Largo, Long Key, and Cudjoe Key. Com- bustible materials were burned either in an incinerator or in an air curtain destructor. The re- sulting ash was used as cover on the landfills. Non-combus- tible materials were deposited directly in the landfills. I n August 1990, the County entered into a contract with Waste Management, Inc. (WMI) to transport the solid waste to the contractor's private landfill in Broward County. In accordance with County-approved franchise agreements, private contractors perform collection of solid waste. Residential collection takes place two or three times a week; nonresi- dential collection varies by contract. The four (4) contractors currently serving the Keys are identified in the table below: Figure 43: Solid Waste Contractors UDDer Keys Middle Keys Lower Keys Keys Sanitary Service Ocean Reef Club Inc. Mid-Keys Waste. Inc. Waste Management Inc./Bland DisDosal As a consequence of these franchise agreements, the County's incinerators and landfills are no longer in operation. The landfill sites are now used as transfer sta- tions for wet garbage, yard waste, and con- struction debris collected throughout the Keys by the four curbside contractors and prepared by WMI for shipment out of the Keys. The table below summarizes the sta- tus of the County's landfills and incinera- tors. Figure 44: Solid Waste Facilities Incinerators Closed 12/31/90 Closed 1/7/91 Reserve Capacity Landfills . (cubic yards) No Lonaer Active 0 No Lonaer Active 0 All County landfills are now officially closed. However, it is important to note that the new site on Cudjoe Key could be re- opened if necessary. The County's recycling efforts continue to expand. Beginning in October 1994, curbside collection of recyclable materials was made available to all County residences and businesses. Recycling transfer centers have been established in the Lower, Middle, and Upper Keys. Waste Management, Inc. continues to process yard waste into mulch. The mulch product is then made available to the public. In addition to County efforts, other government agencies are mulching and reusing yard waste, and private enter- prises are collecting aluminum and other recyclable materials. 2000 PUBLIC F ACILTITIES CAPACITY ASSESSMENT SOLID WASTE PAGE 55 MONROE COUNTY PLANNING & ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES White goods, waste oil, batteries and tires are handled separately, with collection sites operating at each landfill/transfer sta- tion site. The County collects household hazardous waste at the Long Key and Cudjoe Key sites. Hazardous waste from small quantity generators is collected once a year, as part of an Amnesty Days program. Demand for Solid Waste Facilities For solid waste accounting purposes, the County is divided into three districts which are similar, but not identical to the service areas outlined in Section 9.5-292 of the Land Development Regulations (LDRs). One dif- ference is that Windley Key, which is con- sidered to be in the Upper Keys district in the LDRs, is included in the Middle Keys district for purposes of solid waste manage- ment. Another difference from the LDRs is that the cities of Layton and Key Colony Beach are included in the Middle Keys dis- trict for solid waste management. Although Islamorada incorporated on December 31, 1997, the municipality con- tinued to participate with Monroe County in the contract with Waste Management Inc. until September 30, 1998. Data for Monroe County solid waste generation is calculated by fiscal year which runs from October 1 to September 30. Therefore, the effects of Islamorada's incorporation on solid waste services appear in the 1999 data. Data for the City of Key West and the Village of Islamorada is not included in this report. Demand for solid waste facilities is influ- enced by many factors, including the size and income levels of resident and seasonal populations, the extent of recycling efforts, household consumptive practices, landscap- ing practices, land development activities, and natural events such as hurricanes and tropical storms. Analyses provided by a private research group indicate that the av- erage single-family house generates 2.15 tons of solid waste per year. Mobile homes and multifamily units, having smaller yards and household sizes, typically generate less solid waste (1.96 and 1.28 tons per year, respectively) . The graph and table on the following page summarize the solid waste generated by each district. The totals for each district are a combination of four categories of solid waste: garbage, yard waste, bulk yard waste and other (includes construction and demolition debris). SOLID WASTE PAGE 56 2000 PUBLIC FACILITIES CAPACITY ASSESSMENT MONROE COUNTY PLANNING & ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES Figure 45: Solid Waste Generation by District 100,000 80,000 60,000 1Il c: 0 I- 40,000 20,000 0 Year Key Largo Lona Key Cudioe Key Total % Chanae 1984 29 018 28 799 14819 72 635 -2.0% 1985 28.585 28 890 15 938 73413 1.0% 1986 30 367 31 623 20715 82 705 13.0% 1987 32.193 37 094 22 206 91 493 11.0% 1988 35 362 38 101 26 045 99 508 9.0% 1989 31.173 33 931 23 033 88_137 -11.0% 1990 28 430 31 924 22 988 83 342 -5.0% 1991 26 356 28 549 20 699 75 604 -9.0% 1992 27 544 26 727 18.872 73.143 -3.0% 1993 37 211 28 986 22 198 88 395 21.0% 1994 30110 30 662 24.831 85.603 -3.0% 1995 28 604 30 775 25 113 84.492 -1.0% 1996 31 573 31 845 27 823 91 241 8.0% 1997 32 003 33 625 29 350 94.978 4.0% 1998 33119 36 440 30 920 100 479 6.0% 1999 27 303 28 135 30 409 85.847 -14.6% Note: The figures from 1984 to 1991 include white goods, tires, construction debris, and yard waste. They do not include source-separated recyclable. The figures from 1992 to 1998 do not include white goods and tires since these items are recycled. _ Key largo c:::J Long Key .'''''i>'''''''' OJdjoe Key ~ Total 1984 1985 1986 1987 19881989 1990 1991 1992 1993 19941995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Sources: (1) 1984 data taken from Hazen & Sawyer Site Screening Report, August 1987. Yearly rates = daily rates x 365. (2) 1985-1999 data taken from County tonnage reports. After reaching a peak in 1988, the data uted to the demolition and rebuilding asso- shows a general decline in the total amount ciated with Hurricane Andrew, which made of solid waste generated throughout the landfall in South Florida in late August 1992. County. However, in 1993 there was an For the next two years the amount of solid increase of 21 percent in the amount of solid waste generated in the County was once waste generated. This increase is attrib- again on the decline. However, from 1996 2000 PUBLIC F ACILTITIES CAPACITY ASSESSMENT PAGE 57 SoLID WASTE MONROE COUNTY PLANNING & ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES onward the amount of solid waste gener- ated has been on the increase until 1998, when it reached its highest level yet. This increase is attributed to the debris associ- ated with Hurricane Georges, which made landfall in the Keys in September of 1998. A portion of the decline seen from 1998 to 1999 may be attributable to the reduction in solid waste collected from Islamorada. Level of Service of Solid Waste Facilities Section 9.5-292 of the Land Develop- ment Regulations requires that the County maintain sufficient capacity to accommodate all existing and approved development for at least three (3) years. The regulations specifically recognize the concept of using disposal sites outside Monroe County. As of December 1999, Waste Manage- ment Inc., reports a reserve capacity of ap- proximately 20 million cubic yards at their Central Sanitary Landfill in Sroward County, a volume sufficient to serve their clients for another 40 years. The chart below shows the remaining capacity at the Central Sani- tary Landfill. Figure 46: Remaining Capacity. Central Sanitary landfill 1997 1998 1999 34 million 27 million 20 million Remaining Capacity cubic cubic cubic I (volume) vards vards vards Remaining Capacity I (time) 42 vears 41 vears 40 vears Source: Monroe County Solid Waste Management Division, 2000 Monroe County has a contract with WMI authorizing use of the facility through Sep- tember 30, 2006, thereby providing the County with approximately seven years of guaranteed capacity. In addition to this con- tract, the 180,000 cubic yard reserve at the County landfill on Cudjoe Key would be suf- ficient to handle the County's waste stream for an additional four to five years (at cur- rent tonnage levels), should the County choose to discontinue haul-out as the means of disposal. The combination of the existing haul-out contract and the space available at the Cudjoe Key landfill provides the County with sufficient capacity to accommodate all ex- isting and approved development for ten to eleven years. SOLID WASTE PAGE 58 2000 PUBLIC FACILITIES CAPACITY ASSESSMENT MONROE COUNTY PLANNING & ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES PARKS AND RECREATION An annual assessment of parks and recreational facilities is NOT mandated by Section 9.5-292 of the Monroe County Land Development Regulations, though it is required for concurrency management systems by the Florida Statutes. The fol- lowing section has been included in the 2000 Public Facilities Capacity Assess- ment Report for informational purposes only. Level of Service standards for parks and recreational facilities are not men- tioned in the Land Development Regula- tions, but are listed in Policy 1201.1.1 of the Monroe County Year 2010 Compre- hensive Plan. Parks and Recreational Facilities Level of Service Standard The level of service (LOS) standard for neighborhood and community parks in Monroe County is 1.64 acres per 1 ,000 functional population. To ensure a bal- ance between the provision of resource- and activity- based recreation areas the LOS standard has been divided equally between these two types of recreation areas. Therefore, the LOS standards are: 0.82 acres of resource-based recre- ation area per 1 ,000 functional popu- lation 0.82 acres of activity based recreation area per 1 ,000 functional population The LOS standards for each type of recreation area can be applied to unin- corporated Monroe County as a whole or to each subarea (Upper, Middle, and Lower Keys) of unincorporated Monroe County. In determining how to apply the LOS standard for each type of recreation area, the most important aspect to consider is the differ- ence between resource- and activity-based recreation areas. Resource-based recre- ation areas are established around exist- ing natural or cultural resources of signifi- cance, such as beach areas or historic sites. Activity-based recreation areas can be es- tablished anywhere there is sufficient space for ball fields, tennis or basketball courts, or other athletic events. Since the location of resource-based recreation areas depends upon the natural features or cultural resources of the area and cannot always be provided near the largest population centers, it is reasonable to apply the LOS standard for resource- based areas to all of unincorporated Mon- roe County. Since activity-based recreation areas do not rely on natural features or cul- tural resources for their location and be- cause they can be provided in areas with concentrated populations, it is more appro- priate to apply the LOS standard to each subarea of the Keys. It is important to note that the subareas used for park and recreational facilities dif- fer from those subareas used in the popu- lation projections. For the purpose of park and recreational facilities, the Upper Keys are considered to be the area north of Tavernier (PAEDs 15 through 22). The Middle Keys are considered to be the area between Pigeon Key and Long Key (PAEDs 6 through 11). The Lower Keys are the area south of the Seven Mile Bridge (PAEDs 1 . through 6). Although the Middle and Lower Keys subareas both contain portions of PAED 6, the population of PAED 6 is lo- cated in the Lower Keys subarea. 2000 PUBLIC F ACILTlTlES CAPACITI ASSESSMENT PARKS & RECREATION PAGE 59 e MONROE COUNTY PLANNING & ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES An inventory of Monroe County's parks and recreational facilities is presented on the following pages. The facilities are grouped by subarea and are classified according to the principal use (resource or activity). Figure 47: Parks and Recreational Facilities ub r a Undevelo ed Undevelo ed Basketball courts (2), playground, ball field, picnic shelters, and public Friendshi Park restrooms. A soccer field, two (2) ball fields, six (6) tennis courts, a jogging trail, three (3) basketball courts, roller hockey, volleyball, playground, picnic shelters, ublic restrooms, and ro osed swimmin 001. Waterfront ark with a boat ram . Har Harris Settler's Park Sunn Haven Old S.R. 4-A Key Largo Elementa Coral Shores High School Plantation Key Elementa Facilities 1.50 0.46 1.92 14.00 1.20 16.40 3.00 0.09 0.30 3.40 10.10 Pro osed facilities include ark benches, trails, and a historic latform. Undevelo ed Undevelo ed track, indoor m. Coco Plum Beach Waloriss (Calle Ensenada Aviation Boulevard Sombrero Beach Jessie Hobbs Park Marathon Communi Park Marathon Yacht Club Sunset Park on Kni hts Ke Baseball field, football field, softball field, 5 tennis courts, indoor m. Pia round, 1 tennis court, 1 basketball court, 1 baseball field. Undevelo ed 23.61 0.29 0.10 8.6 0.61 12.00 2.00 10.00 5.00 7.80 icnic shelters, beach area and ublic restrooms. Basketball court, la round, and benches. Proposed facilities include event field, 2 ball fields, 2 soccer fields, 6 tennis courts, 3 basketball courts, roller hocke and a'o in trail. Basketball court teen club, and a boat ram Fishin area. Historic structures, research/educational facilities, and a railroad museum. Baseball and football field, softball field, 3 tennis courts, 3 basketball courts, indoor m. PARKS & RECREATION PAGE 60 2000 PUBLIC FACILITIES CAPACITY ASSESSMENT MONROE COUNTY PLANNING & ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES Figure 47: Parks and Recreational Facilities (continued) Classification and Size a res Facilities Resource Activi West Summerland Heron Avenue Palm Villa Big Pine Leisure Club Blue Heron Park Watson Field Ramrod Key Swim Hole Summerland Estates Little Torch Boat Ram Ba oint Park Palm Villa Park Rockland Hammock Boca Chica Beach Delmar Avenue Boat Ram Big Coppitt Fire Department Pia round Wilhelmina Harvey Children's Park Bernstein Park East Martello West Martello , and beach area. 25.50 3.50 31.80 0.69 0.44 1.75 5.50 2.40 0.50 0.13 0.10 1.58 0.13 2.50 6.00 0.20 0.75 0.65 11.00 14.58 0.80 5.06 0.77 Boat Ram . Undevelo ed Pia round and benches. Swimmin area with no facilities. Undevelo ed tennis courts, and icnic area. Undevelo ed Beach area Boat ram Pia round and benches. Passive reen s ace with no facilities. Ball field, soccer, basketball court, tennis courts, playground, and volle ball. Historic structures, teen center, and icnic area. Historic structure Five (5) tennis courts, playground, volleyball, picnic shelters, beach area, ier, and ublic restrooms. Subarea U er Ke sTatal Middle Ke s Total Lower Ke s Total Overall Total 132.94 Note: these figures include undeveloped lands Source: Monroe County Planning Department, 2000 2000 PUBLIC F ACILTITIES CAPACITY ASSESSMENT PAGE 61 PARKS & RECREATION o MONROE COUNTY PLANNING & ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES Level of Service Analysis for Resource-Based Recreation There are currently 123.81 acres of re- source-based recreation areas either owned or leased by Monroe County. The resource- based acreage figures subtracts 9.13 acres of undeveloped lands from the 132.94 total shown in Figure 47. Using the functional population projection for 2000 of 73,969 persons in unincorporated Monroe County, and the LOS standard of 0.82 acres per 1,000 functional population, the demand for resource-based recre- ation areas is approxi- mately 60.60 acres. The county currently has a re- source-based recreation land to meet the level of service with an extra 63.21 acres of reserve capacity. Level of Service Analysis for Activity-Based Recreation Areas Subarea UDDer Kevs Total Middle Kevs Total Lower Kevs Total Overall Total 1,000 functional population in unincorpo- rated Monroe County, the demand for these recreation areas are 30.01 , 3.19 and 27.38 acres for the Upper, Middle, and Lower Keys, respectively. There is currently a reserve of 52.03 acres of activity-based recreation areas for all of unincorporated Monroe County. The following table shows the level of service analysis for activity-based recreation areas in each subarea. Figure 48: Level of Service Analysis for Activity-Based Recreation Areas 2000 Functional Population 36615 3944 33410 73 969 Total Active- based Acreage Available 47.52 33.51 31.58 112.61 Demand (.82 Reserve ACJ1,OOO Capacity people) (in acres) 30.01 17.51 3.19 30.32 27.38 4.2 60.58 52.03 Source: Monroe County Planning Department, 2000 The Year 2010 Comprehensive Plan al- lows activity-based recreational land found at educational facilities to be counted to- wards the park and recreational concur- rency. There is currently a total of 112.61 (113.07 AC - 0.46AC of undeveloped lands) acres of activity-based recreation areas ei- ther owned or leased by Monroe County and the Monroe County School Board. This to- tal represents 47.52 acres in the Upper Keys (including Plantation Key in Islamorada), 33.51 acres in the Middle Keys (including Marathon), and 31.58 acres in the Lower Keys. Based on a LOS standard of 0.82 acres of activity-based recreation areas per Acquisition of Additional Recre- ation Areas The Monroe County Year 201 0 Compre- hensive Plan states in Objective 1201.2 that "Monroe County shall secure additional acreage for use and/or development of re- source-based and activity-based neighbor- hood and community parks consistent with the adopted level of service standards." The elimination of deficiencies in LOS standards for recreation areas can be accomplished in a number of ways. Policy 1201.2.1 of the Comprehensive Plan provides six (6) mechanisms that are acceptable for solv- ing deficits in park level of service standards, as well as for providing adequate land to PARKS & RECREATION PAGE 62 2000 PUBLIC FACILITIES CAPACITY ASSESSMENT MONROE COUNTY PLANNING & ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES satisfy the demand for parks and recreation facilities that results from additional residen- tial development. The six (6) mechanisms are: 1. Development of park and recre- ational facilities on land that is already owned by the county but that is not be- ing used for park and recreation pur- poses; 2. Acquisition of new park sites; 3. Interlocal agreements with the Mon- roe County School Board that would allow for the use of existing school-park facilities by county residents; 4. Interlocal agreements with incorpo- rated cities within Monroe County that would allow for the use of existing city- owned park facilities by county resi- dents; 5. Intergovernmental agreements with agencies of state and federal govern- ments that would allow for the use of existing publicly-owned lands or facili- ties by county residents; and 6. Long-term lease arrangements or joint use agreements with private enti- ties that would allow for the use of pri- vate park facilities by county residents. To date, the county has employed two of these six mechanisms - acquisition of new park sites (number 2 above) and interlocal agreements with the School Board (number 3 above). However, these agree- ments need to be examined more closely to determine the amount of available acre- age for calculating concurrency. Further- more, Monroe County cannot rely upon joint use facilities to eliminate existing deficien- cies or meet future LOS requirements until interlocal, intergovernmental, or private use joint agreements are executed. For in- stance, the County is currently reviewing and revising the InterlocalAgreements with the Monroe County School Board to pro- vide greater day time accessibility for stu- dents to public recreational facilities. Once executed, these agreements will ensure that the facilities will be available for general use to Monroe County residents to meet peak season, weekend, or time of day recreation demands. 2000 PUBLIC F ACILTITIES CAPACITY ASSESSMENT PARKS & RECREATION PAGE 63