Item G1
COMMISSIONER NORA WILLIAMS
District 4
Ken Metcalf, DCA
Bob Collins, DCA
Tallahassee, Florida
Dear Ken and Bob:
Let me start by thanking you for all the efforts you have made on our behalf to make this
evaluation of hurricane evacuation clearance time from the Keys a meaningful one. It is, in
fact, out of exactly that concern, that I would request a formal response to a nwnber of issues
that have been raised.
While we have a "number" as the hurricane evacuation clearance time represented in the
Miller report, it appears that there may be a RlllBhof ef issues that could impact and/or change
that number - and for both of your concerns (emergency management AND growth
management), that evacuation clearance time may need to be adjusted to reflect those issues.
A list of those issues follows:
· The DCA behavioral analysis (Baker) that was supposed to be utilized in shaping the
Miller report indicated that a percentage of the population would have left prior to the
call tor an evacuation. That behavioral characteristic is not reflected in the Miller Report.
Shouldn't it have been? And if, in fact, it should have been, what would be the impact on
the hurricane evacuation clearance time if that characteristic had been properly reflected
in the report?
· The DCA behavioral analysis (Baker) indicated that evacuees would be leaving during
the entire evacuation clearance time, while the Miller model seems to reflect an earlier
departure schedule. Is our understanding of that distinction correct? If so, is Miller's
decision not to reflect that behavioral characteristic justified? If not, what would be the
impacts on hurricane evacuation clearance time HAD that behavioral characteristic been
incorporated into the analysis?
· In terms of the expected percentage of the population evacuating, were those percentages
based on the Baker study or older data? If older data, 8Meule .8 9a1lor Mey M1':e 888R
MONROE COUNTY FLORIDA
Marathon Government Annex, 490 63ro St. Ocean #110, Marathon, FL 33050
Phone (305)-289-6000; Fax (305)289-6306; E-mail: noraw@mail.state.B.us
&.1
118tul t8 FlF8vis8 tR888 p8M8DtageS 8IMi what would have been the impact on clearance
time had the most recent data been used ee?
· While Miller acknowledges the receipt of updated population infonnation from Monroe
County/Key West that resulted in a clearance time reduction of26 minutes, that reduction
time is not reflected in the table that was produced, although the information was
provided well in advance of the release of the final report, Please make sure that the table
that results from this re-examination includes that reduction in time,
· The County requested that the "background traffic" numbers presented in the draft of the
Miller report be re-examined as they seemed inordinately high for the limited number of
intersections. It appears in the final draft that Card Sound Road was decreased but the 18
Mile Stretch was not. Could you check for us why? And if "background traffic" on the 18
Mile Stretch should have been reduced accordingly, would you determine the evacuation
clearance time impact of that correction?
· There appear to be contradictory assessments of clearance time impacts for certain
discussed alternatives in the D-l Table and elsewhere, Is it your ooinion that these
contradictions are in error and. if so. do they impact the evacuation clearance time?
· Will DCA create a clear table for us once these issues are addressed that defines the
clearance time TO FLORIDA CITY - which is the measure by which future decisions
will ultimately be made'?
F or each of these, gentlemen, an approximate assessment of any impact on time must be
provided if the issue raised is a significant one, so that we can emerge from this process with
a meaningful designation of clearance time that reflects the elements that were MEANT to be
reflected within the Miller document. Without answers to these questions. the "conclusions"
of the Miller report should not be accepted. I am aware of the painful fact that this process
never appears to end and I +!hank8 you again for your time and patience on this issue.
Sincerely,
Nora Williams
cc: Governor Jeb Bush: FDOT Secretary Tom Barry: FDOT District 6 Reoresentative John
Martinez
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