Item L6 Chapter 2 Community-Wide Assessment Monroe County 2010 Comprehensive Plan
Evaluation and Appraisal Report
CHAPTER 2: COMMUNITY-WIDE ASSESSMENT
1. Population Analysis: Trends and Projections
Background
The population forecast was prepared' and approved by DCA on April 4, 2011 for
the unincorporated portions of the County through year 2030 for the update of the
Plan. Population is identified according to upper/middle/lower (UML) keys. It is
based on the countywide functional population control total forecast through 2030.
Functional population is the sum of permanent plus seasonal population.
The seasonal population series is based on the Florida Keys Aqueduct Authority
(FKAA) data series which was based the "Monroe County Population Estimates and
Forecast 1990-2015". This series includes estimates of seasonal residences, RV's,
hotel/motel units, campsites, boat liveaboards, mobile home, and other. DCA
recommended using the FKAA series for the purposes of estimating the seasonal
population component,with appropriate updates to the methodology.
The permanent population series is the latest published by the University of Florida,
Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR). In as much as the County's Rate
of Growth Ordinance (ROGO) has been in place since 1993, BEBR population
projections reflect a ROGO constrained growth trend. This means permanent
population growth projections implicitly assume the continuation of the ROGO
constraint and the effects of the ROGO constraint are implicitly embedded in the
history.
Population Growth Trends
BEBR annual population estimates for municipalities and unincorporated areas
indicates permanent population fell in the Keys from 2006-2008, with some return
to growth evidenced in 2009. The data indicates a loss in permanent population
with likely replacement through an increase in seasonal residents. Further, both
sales and traffic are trending up by similar magnitude suggesting there is limited
growth, and no sustained decline in economic activity. This volume of limited
growth is consistent with growth which occurs under the ROGO cap.
The data suggests a portion of the permanent population losses have occurred as a
result of the recession, a rise in foreclosures, depletion of affordable housing and
increased unemployment. Nearly 3,500 units have been foreclosed throughout the
1 The April, 2011 population forecast was prepared by Fishkind and Associates with support from
Keith and Schnars,P.A.See July 2011 Technical Document for full report.
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October 2011 Keith and Schnars, P.A.
Monroe County 2010 Comprehensive Plan
Evaluation and Appraisal Report
Keys since 2005. Losses associated with some of these conditions may be
temporary, resulting in renewed growth after the recession.
As a decline in permanent population has occurred over the past decade, from 1990
to 2000 there is a real increase in non-permanent/seasonal replacement as
evidenced by an increase in the trend in auto-traffic volume, an increase in the trend
in inflation adjusted retail sales, an increase in non-homesteaded residential
properties, and an increase in seasonal population as shown in the American
Communities Survey (ACS) during the 2000-2008 time period.
In 1998, 55 percent of the units were homesteaded. In 2011, non-homesteaded
units equate for 57 percent. Among single family units only, the non-homestead
share has risen from 45 percent in 1998 to 49 percent in 2009. For single family
units, 70 percent of the growth since 1998 has been in non-homestead units. This
supports an increase in non-permanent/seasonal occupancy, which offsets the
permanent population losses.
2010 Population of Municipalities and Unincorporated Area
As illustrated in Table 2, below, for 2010, the estimated functional (permanent and
seasonal) population for the unincorporated areas of the County is 70,808 persons;
35,368 are permanent residents and 35,440 are seasonal residents.
The 2010 Census provides the following permanent population estimates for the
municipalities:
• Islamorada: 6,119 persons
• Key Colony Beach: 797 persons
• Key West: 24,649 persons
• Layton: 184 persons
• Marathon: 8,297 persons
Population Projections for Monroe Count
With the understanding that permanent losses do appear to be replaced by seasonal
population, and some losses in permanent population may be temporary and
cyclical due to recession and foreclosures, if all of the recent Census or ACS based
permanent losses were shifted into the seasonal population, the resulting 2030
functional population would still likely demonstrate small levels of growth
consistent with the ROGO allocations.
Based on this analysis, a county level functional population series was prepared to
reflect these conditions. This series begins with the medium series population
projection from the BEBR medium series projection, PS156, published in 2010.
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October 2011 Keith and Schnars, P.A.
Monroe County 2010 Comprehensive Plan
Evaluation and Appraisal Report
Next, the FKAA seasonal series through 2025 was used and to this was applied the
2000-2025 Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of the FKAA seasonal series to
extend the series from 2025 to 2030. In addition, from 2006-2030, 70 percent of
the permanent population loss as forecast by BEBR was added to the seasonal
population. Further, the equivalent of 70 percent of the ROGO growth to seasonal
population was added to the FKAA seasonal series, reflecting the seasonal shift
component not evidenced in FKAA's original data. The resulting functional
population is seen in Table 2.
This data series is the most reflective of actual economic and market conditions and
is most representative of the long term functional population outlook.
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October 2011 Keith and Schnars, P.A.
Monroe County 2010 Comprehensive Plan
Evaluation and Appraisal Report
Table 2- Unincorporated Functional Population Series
Unincorporated Population Projection
Seasonal Replacement Series
Permanent Seasonal Functional
2000 36,036 33,241 69,277
2001 36,250 33,263 69,512
2002 36,4452 33,285 69,737
2003 36,5443 33,307 69,850
20044 36,606 33,329 69,935
2005 37,164 33,351 70,515
2006 36,466 344,019 70,485
2007 35,7449 344,568 70,317
2008 344,788 35,550 70,338
2009 36,268 35,043 71,311
2010 35,368 35,440 70,808
2011 35,917 35,249 71,166
2012 35,862 35,453 71,315
2013 35,806 35,658 71,4644
20144 35,751 35,862 71,613
2015 351696 36,067 71,763
2016 35,632 36,277 71,909
2017 35,567 36,488 72,055
2018 35,503 36,698 72,201
2019 35,438 36,909 72,3448
2020 35,374 37,120 72,4944
2021 35,310 37,330 72,6440
2022 35,2445 37,541 72,786
2023 35,181 37,752 72,933
20244 35,116 37,962 73,079
2025 35,052 38,173 73,225
2026 344,988 38,3844 73,371
2027 344,923 38,5944 73,518
2028 344,859 38,805 73,6644
2029 344,794 39,016 73,810
2030 344,730 39,226 73,956
Source!Fishkind&Associates,Inc. April,2011
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October 2011 Keith and Schnars, P.A.
Monroe County 2010 Comprehensive Plan
Evaluation and Appraisal Report
2. Land Use Inventory
Current Existing Land Use Area
The County includes the Mainland area and over 1,700 islands which lie along the
Florida Straits, dividing the Atlantic Ocean to the east, from the Gulf of Mexico to the
west, and defining one edge of the Florida Bay. The Mainland Planning Area (PA)
encompasses two national landmarks: The Everglades National Park and The Big
Cypress National Preserve and accounts for approximately 85 percent or 562,149
acres of the overall County land mass. Federal lands designated as Conservation use
comprise 99.8 percent of the lands within the Mainland PA.
The measurement of the areas in the County is not exact. The unique environmental
character of the area, especially the large areas of mangrove-fringed shoreline and
numerous small islands, many of which are below the mean high water line, makes
an exact land area with acreage inventories difficult, simply because defining "land"
in the County is difficult.
The calculation of acreages of land use types shown in Table 3 and Table 4,
provides an approximation of the land area of each of the land use categories, and is
useful in determining the conditions as they presently exist.
Table 3 -Existing Land Use by Planning Area (Acres)
ElEffinin
rr . OEM
Commercial 344.6 67.7 497.2 909.5 1.2%
Conservation 30,801.5 1,240.8 16,208.0 48,250.2 66.1%
Educational 49.2 0.0 30.8 80.0 0.1%
Industrial 332.7 0.2 38.7 371.6 0.5%
Institutional 147.8 0.4 55.8 204.0 0.3%
Military 3,307.8 0.0 0.0 3,307.8 4.5%
Other Public - Utilities ROW 1,777.3 175.2 1,396.8 3,349.3 4.6%
Public Buildings and Grounds 22.7 33.0 62.2 117.9 0.2%
Recreational 643.4 132.1 547.0 1,322.6 1.8%
Residential 2,612.2 199.8 2,240.0 5,052.0 6.9%
Vacant or Undeveloped 6849.2 297.9 3,045.9 10,143 13.9%
Total 47,437.9 2,144.1 23,388.1 72,970.2 100.0%
Source: Monroe County Growth Management,May 2011,"Existing Land Use"Geographic Information Files.
NOTE: Slight difference in totals due to rounding.
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October 2011 Keith and Schnars, P.A.
Monroe County 2010 Comprehensive Plan
Evaluation and Appraisal Report
Land Area of Future Land Use Map
There have been no changes in land area on the Future Land Use Map since the
previous EAR was completed in 2004. However, the County continues to review
ownership of offshore islands which may require digitization and mapping of
additional offshore island acreage.
Table 4: Future Land Use Acreage Distribution
a r .
r r
Agriculture 18.8 0.0 1.9 20.7 0.0%
Airport District 22.6 0.0 19.7 42.2 0.1%
Conservation 19,629.5 500.8 11,566.8 31,697.1 43.4%
Education 28.5 0.0 32.1 60.6 0.1%
Industrial 403.5 0.0 0.0 403.5 0.6%
Institutional 87.5 0.0 43.4 130.9 0.2%
Military 4,258.0 0.0 0.0 4,258.0 5.8%
Mixed Use Commercial 878.0 138.6 1,004.5 2,021.1 2.8%
Mixed Use Commercial Fishing 190.2 25.2 12.2 227.7 0.3%
Public Buildings 20.2 0.0 26.8 47.0 0.1%
Public Facilities 55.6 27.2 57.4 140.2 0.2%
Recreation 526.7 848.0 638.4 2,013.1 2.8%
Residential Conservation 12,148.8 312.5 6,075.4 18,536.7 25.4%
Residential Low 2,839.5 23.8 939.0 3,802.3 5.2%
Residential Medium 2,906.6 231.3 2,125.4 5,263.3 7.2%
Residential High 421.1 41.8 908.5 1,371.4 1.9%
Undesi nated 2,878.7 52.2 0.0 2,930.9 4.0%
Total 47,313.8 2,201.4 23,451.5 72,966.7 100.0%
Source: Monroe County Growth Management,May 2011,"Future Land Use"GIS File.
Chapter 2:Community-Wide Assessment 2-6 Evaluation and Appraisal Report
October 2011 Keith and Schnars, P.A.
Monroe County 2010 Comprehensive Plan
Evaluation and Appraisal Report
Amount of Vacant and Developable Land
There is approximately 10,143 acres of vacant land in the unincorporated area of
the County. The largest amount of vacant land in the unincorporated areas (1,376.6
acres) is located within the Lower Keys PA.
The general trend for all planning areas signal that vacant land is primarily located
under the residential future land use designations: Residential Conservation,
Residential Low and Residential Medium.
As illustrated in Table 5 on the next page, the majority of vacant land is located
within Tier I (74%) with little development potential as regulated by the County's
point system. Tier II, III, and III-A comprise 8 percent of vacant land and this is where
development is most likely to concentrate. Also illustrated in this table are the vacant
parcels within each PA. The Lower Keys PA contains 6,849.2 acres (5,455 parcels),
which are vacant, and located within a tier designation. Most of the vacant land
(88.9 %) is located in Tier I comprised of 3,264 parcels (6,088.8 acres); 5.2 percent
(1,446 parcels) are designated Tier III. The U (Undesignated) Tier accounts for 4.6
percent or 301 parcels of vacant land. The Lower Keys PA is the only PA with 413
vacant parcels (1.1%) designated Tier II, which only applies to Big Pine Key and No
Name Key. Less than one percent of vacant land (31 parcels) is located in Tier III-A.
The Middle Keys PA has 247.9 vacant acres or 106 vacant parcels, which are located
in three of the tiers. Tier I contains 38.2% (10 vacant acres), and Tier III has 35.8%
(68.1 vacant acres). The remaining two parcels or 19.9 percent are located within
Tier U.
The Upper Keys PA includes 3,045.9 acres or 2,808 parcels of vacant land within the
Tier System. Most of the vacant acres are split up into two of the tiers. Tier I has
46.3% vacant acres (815 parcels), and Tier U contains 1,353 vacant acres (760
parcels). Another 1,032 parcels (7.1%) are located in Tier III, these parcels
constitute 214.3 acres. Lastly, 2.2 percent of vacant acres, or 67.1 parcels are
located in Tier III-A.
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Chapter 2:Community-Wide Assessment 2-7 Evaluation and Appraisal Report
October 2011 Keith and Schnars, P.A.
Monroe County 2010 Comprehensive Plan
Evaluation and Appraisal Report
Table 5 - Vacant Land by Tier and Planning Area
r
3,264 413 1,446 31 N/A 301 N/A 5,455
6,088.8 76.6 359.4 11.5 30.9 312.9 6,880.1 6,849.2
88.9% 1.1% 5.2% 0.2% N/A 4.6% N/A N/A
10 0 94 0 N A 2 N A 106
130.4 0.0 68.1 0.0 2.65 49.4 250.6 247.9
38.2% 0.0% 35.8% 0.0% N A 19.9% N/A N/A
EMEMEMENEEMEMMIM
® ®
815 0 1,032 201 N/A 760 N/A 2,808
` 1,411.5 0.0 214.3 67.1 77 1,353 3,122.9 3,045.9
46.3% 0.0% 7.1% 2.2% N/A 44.4% N/A N/A
o . 4089 413 2,572 232 N/A 1,063 N/A 8,369
o . 7,630.7 76.6 641.8 78.6 110.6 1,715.3 10,253.6 10,143
74% 1% 6% 1% 1% 17% N/A 100%
Note: Percentage of Tier-slight differences due to rounding.
Source: Monroe County Growth Management,2011,Geographic Information System file"MC_ELU_511"; Monroe
County Growth Management,2011,Geographic Information System file"MC_FLUM_511"; Monroe County Growth
Management,2011,Geographic Information System file"Tier_0110"
Tiers are:
I = Tier I-Natural Areas
II= Tier II (Big Pine Key and No Name Keys in the Lower Keys Planning Area only)
III = Tier III-Infill Areas
III-A=Special Protection Area(SPA)
0= Property does not have a Tier designation. Most of these occur in the Upper Keys and some
are right-of-way parcels. Some lots were not originally designated because of mapping errors;
the majority of which are currently being reviewed by the Tier Designation Review Committee
and will be designated at a later date.
U = Undesignated Tier-Properties that originally had a Tier designation but became
undesignated by a court order. This court order was in response to the Everglades Law
Center's analysis of the Tier System. As a result of the court order,it was determined that a
number of parcels should be re-designated. The Tier Designation Review Committee is
currently addressing the issues
Tier 0 is used for illustration purposes only and is not part of the analysis.
Vacant acres in all tiers after subtracting Tier 0.
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October 2011 Keith and Schnars, P.A.
Monroe County 2010 Comprehensive Plan
Evaluation and Appraisal Report
Existing Land Use to Future Land Use Comparative Anal
This section is currently under construction.
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Chapter 2:Community-Wide Assessment 2-9 Evaluation and Appraisal Report
October 2011 Keith and Schnars, P.A.
Monroe County 2010 Comprehensive Plan
Evaluation and Appraisal Report
CHAPTER 2: COMMUNITY-WIDE ASSESSMENT..................................................................1
Population Analysis: Trends and Projections...................................................... 1
Background................................................................................................................ 1
Population Growth Trends......................................................................................... 1
2010 Population of Municipalities and Unincorporated Area................................. 2
Population Projections for Monroe County............................................................... 2
TABLE 2-UNINCORPORATED FUNCTIONAL POPULATION SERIES................................................4
LandUse Inventory..................................................................................................... 5
Current Existing Land Use Area ................................................................................ 5
TABLE 3 -EXISTING LAND USE BY PLANNING AREA(ACRES)........................................................5
Land Area of Future Land Use Map........................................................................... 6
TABLE 4: FUTURE LAND USE ACREAGE DISTRIBUTION.................................................................6
Amount of Vacant and Developable Land................................................................. 7
TABLE 5 -VACANT LAND BY TIER AND PLANNING AREA...............................................................8
Existing Land Use to Future Land Use Comparative Analysis.................................. 9
Chapter 2:Table of Contents 24 Evaluation and Appraisal Report
October 2011 Keith and Schnars PA