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Item Q6
R/7 BOARD OF COUNTY COMMISSIONERS C ounty of M onroe Mayor David Rice, District 4 Mayor Pro Tem Craig Cates, District 1 The Florida Keys Michelle Coldiron, District 2 Vacant, District 3 Holly Merrill Raschein, District 5 County Commission Meeting March 16, 2022 Agenda Item Number: Q.6 Agenda Item Summary #10374 BULK ITEM: Yes DEPARTMENT: Budget and Finance TIME APPROXIMATE: STAFF CONTACT: Tina Boan (305) 292-4470 10:00am AGENDA ITEM WORDING: Financing presentation by the Board of County Commissioner's Financial Advisor Sergio Masvidal, Managing Director, PFM Financial Advisors LLC. ITEM BACKGROUND: portfolio, credit rating overview, market conditions and bonding capacity. The presentation also discussed various approaches and tools to address resiliency projects, road elevation for sea level rise, flooding issues and stormwater management financing considerations. PREVIOUS RELEVANT BOCC ACTION: N/A CONTRACT/AGREEMENT CHANGES: N/A STAFF RECOMMENDATION: Approval DOCUMENTATION: Monroe-County-Budget-Workshop-11-17-20 FINANCIAL IMPACT: Effective Date: Expiration Date: Total Dollar Value of Contract: Total Cost to County: N/A Current Year Portion: Budgeted: Qbdlfu!Qh/!3134 R/7 Source of Funds: CPI: Indirect Costs: Estimated Ongoing Costs Not Included in above dollar amounts: Revenue Producing: No If yes, amount: Grant: County Match: Insurance Required: Additional Details: REVIEWED BY: Tina Boan Skipped 03/03/2022 9:01 AM Christine Limbert Skipped 03/03/2022 9:01 AM Purchasing Skipped 03/03/2022 9:00 AM Brian Bradley Skipped 03/03/2022 9:01 AM Lindsey Ballard Completed 03/03/2022 9:01 AM Board of County Commissioners Pending 03/16/2022 9:00 AM Qbdlfu!Qh/!3135 Buubdinfou;!Npospf.Dpvouz.Cvehfu.Xpsltipq.22.28.31!!)Gjobodjoh!qsftfoubujpo!cz!uif 1 R/7/b Qbdlfu!Qh/!3136 24 - 23 and 2023 - 222, 2022 - 407.723.5900 pfm.com 21, 2021 - 12051 Corporate BoulevardOrlando, FL 32817 OUTLOOK FOR KEY REVENUESMONROE COUNTY Fiscal Years 2020 November 17, 2020 Presented By:Hank Fishkind, Ph.D.PFM Financial Advisors, LLC © PFM Buubdinfou;!Npospf.Dpvouz.Cvehfu.Xpsltipq.22.28.31!!)Gjobodjoh!qsftfoubujpo!cz!uif 2 R/7/b Qbdlfu!Qh/!3137 opening of the economy. - Nevertheless: (a) governments must continue to provide public services and to protect the health, safety, and welfare of their communities and (b) businesses must plan and execute the reThis analysis is provided to Monroe County for budget and policy planning.All data as of 11/16/2020 unless otherwise noted. 19 pandemic has - The COVIDalready caused unprecedented social and economic costs.There is tremendous uncertainty about the trajectory of new infections, rates of mortality and morbidity, public policies, and the economic costs associated with the pandemic. As a result, the precise magnitude of economic costs and financial market turbulence are unknowable at this juncture. Introduction© PFM Buubdinfou;!Npospf.Dpvouz.Cvehfu.Xpsltipq.22.28.31!!)Gjobodjoh!qsftfoubujpo!cz!uif 3 R/7/b Qbdlfu!Qh/!3138 2021 when a vaccine is - Emergency measures remain in place through May. Normal Lockdown measures are abandoned too soon and the epidemic 19 has triggered a severe but short global recession. In the U.S. - Sources: Moody’s Economy.com COVIDInfections rebound in the U.S. prompting renewals of lockdown Recession: Overview and Key Assumptions 19 - Overview: it is the worst since the depression.Key Assumptions: economic and social activities are delayed until middeveloped. In between social distancing is necessary as testing and quarantine measures ramp up depressing economic activity.Overview: measures preventing a recovery. The result is a prolonged period of below trend economic activity.Key Assumptions: erupts in major cities. Extensive monetary and fiscal measures result in a quasi nationalization of major sectors of the economy. These measures fail to restore a meaningful recovery, but they do arrest the downward spiral. BaselinePessimistic A.B.A.B. COVID 1.2.© PFM Buubdinfou;!Npospf.Dpvouz.Cvehfu.Xpsltipq.22.28.31!!)Gjobodjoh!qsftfoubujpo!cz!uif 4 R/7/b Qbdlfu!Qh/!3139 based recession - based recession, a - Unlike a goodsservice sector recession does not generate excess inventory of goods that must be absorbed before recovery can begin.Instead, a servicecauses a very sharp loss of employment and income and devastates restaurants, retail, service, entertainment, tourism and travel. Many of these businesses are relatively small and have small capital bases. Most of their workers are relatively lower paid and lack healthcare and other safety nets or much savings. Ever Services st 19 Triggers 1 19 has triggered the first - - It is important to recognize that COVIDrecession ever caused by a contraction in the services sector of the economy.All prior recessions stemmed from the good producing sector. For example, the Great Recession beginning in 2008 was caused by an excess supply of housing stimulated by faulty financing and speculation. COVIDSector Driven Recession © PFM Buubdinfou;!Npospf.Dpvouz.Cvehfu.Xpsltipq.22.28.31!!)Gjobodjoh!qsftfoubujpo!cz!uif 5 R/7/b Qbdlfu!Qh/!313: We cannot begin to reopen our economy safely until these conditions occur, which is happening now. But, without social distancing and testing there will be a rebound in infections.Unprecedented monetary policies and massive fiscal stimulus including $3T including direct cash grants to families, and credit support to businesses are expected to avert another depression. But, fiscal stimulus cannot avoid a sharp recession nor a huge surge in bankruptcies and in unemployment. - Since a services sector recession is not burdened by excess inventory, the recovery is expected to occur more quickly.However, in this instance with COVID19, recovery depends upon: (a) a decline in the rate of new infections and (b) sharp increase in testing, tracing, and quarantines. Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, and South Korea avoided massive closures of their economies with robust testing and strict quarantine of those infected. However, even in these countries disruptions occurred when infection rates spiked. Consequences of a Services Sector Recession on the Business Cycle© PFM Buubdinfou;!Npospf.Dpvouz.Cvehfu.Xpsltipq.22.28.31!!)Gjobodjoh!qsftfoubujpo!cz!uif 6 R/7/b Qbdlfu!Qh/!3141 19 on Real GDP - Sources: Moody’s Economy.Com, and PFM 19 recession expected to be the deepest and one of the shortest since WWII. - Impact of COVID© PFM The COVID Buubdinfou;!Npospf.Dpvouz.Cvehfu.Xpsltipq.22.28.31!!)Gjobodjoh!qsftfoubujpo!cz!uif 7 R/7/b Qbdlfu!Qh/!3142 25%13%15% Rate Peak Unemployment Strong actions by the Federal Reserve and the $3T federal stimulus package (equal to 15% of GDP) are likely to prevent cascading sequence of business failures and layoffs from morphing into a financial crises and a depression. 4.3% 30.0%10.5% - -- Fall in GDP 19 Recession to Past Recessions - 6 4318 Duration Months of 9. Again, this is - 19 recession is expected - 19 recession is unique, because it - 19 - 2009 - The COVIDis primarily a services sector recession caused by an epidemic.Although the COVIDto be short in duration, it will likely cause a spike in the unemployment rate higher than in the Great Recession of 2008because this recession strikes at the services sector of the economy. Recession Great Depression2008COVID Sources: Moody’s Economy.com and NBER© PFM Comparison of COVID Buubdinfou;!Npospf.Dpvouz.Cvehfu.Xpsltipq.22.28.31!!)Gjobodjoh!qsftfoubujpo!cz!uif 8 R/7/b Qbdlfu!Qh/!3143 Source: Moody’s Economy.com, Key Interest Rates© PFM Percent Buubdinfou;!Npospf.Dpvouz.Cvehfu.Xpsltipq.22.28.31!!)Gjobodjoh!qsftfoubujpo!cz!uif 9 R/7/b Qbdlfu!Qh/!3144 DATA TO FOCUS ON IN THE NEAR TERM © PFM Buubdinfou;!Npospf.Dpvouz.Cvehfu.Xpsltipq.22.28.31!!)Gjobodjoh!qsftfoubujpo!cz!uif Buubdinfou;!Npospf.Dpvouz.Cvehfu.Xpsltipq.22.28.31!!)Gjobodjoh!qsftfoubujpo!cz!uif Buubdinfou;!Npospf.Dpvouz.Cvehfu.Xpsltipq.22.28.31!!)Gjobodjoh!qsftfoubujpo!cz!uif Buubdinfou;!Npospf.Dpvouz.Cvehfu.Xpsltipq.22.28.31!!)Gjobodjoh!qsftfoubujpo!cz!uif 13 R/7/b Qbdlfu!Qh/!3148 IMPACT ON FLORIDA © PFM Buubdinfou;!Npospf.Dpvouz.Cvehfu.Xpsltipq.22.28.31!!)Gjobodjoh!qsftfoubujpo!cz!uif 14 R/7/b Qbdlfu!Qh/!3149 2018 2016 2014 Correlation = 0.87 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and PFM 1998 Why Care About GDP? Where GDP Goes, so Goes Florida’ Gross State Product to a Large Extent © PFM Buubdinfou;!Npospf.Dpvouz.Cvehfu.Xpsltipq.22.28.31!!)Gjobodjoh!qsftfoubujpo!cz!uif 15 R/7/b Qbdlfu!Qh/!314: years - 19 Recession - Source: U.S. Census Bureau Domestic migration into Florida has slowed 38% over the last 3International migration dropped 43% since 2016 Florida’s Population Growth Peaked in 2016 Well Before the COVID © PFM Buubdinfou;!Npospf.Dpvouz.Cvehfu.Xpsltipq.22.28.31!!)Gjobodjoh!qsftfoubujpo!cz!uif 16 R/7/b Qbdlfu!Qh/!3151 all sectors vulnerable to — 19 Recession. - Florida’s economy is heavily concentrated in tourism, trade, and retirement migration the COVID based recession. - 19 Recession on Florida: Baseline Growth in Population and Employment - Source: PFM 19 Recession is expected to hit Florida - The COVIDparticularly hard, because it is a services Impact of COVID© PFM Buubdinfou;!Npospf.Dpvouz.Cvehfu.Xpsltipq.22.28.31!!)Gjobodjoh!qsftfoubujpo!cz!uif 17 R/7/b Qbdlfu!Qh/!3152 Implications for Monroe County © PFM Buubdinfou;!Npospf.Dpvouz.Cvehfu.Xpsltipq.22.28.31!!)Gjobodjoh!qsftfoubujpo!cz!uif Buubdinfou;!Npospf.Dpvouz.Cvehfu.Xpsltipq.22.28.31!!)Gjobodjoh!qsftfoubujpo!cz!uif Buubdinfou;!Npospf.Dpvouz.Cvehfu.Xpsltipq.22.28.31!!)Gjobodjoh!qsftfoubujpo!cz!uif Buubdinfou;!Npospf.Dpvouz.Cvehfu.Xpsltipq.22.28.31!!)Gjobodjoh!qsftfoubujpo!cz!uif Buubdinfou;!Npospf.Dpvouz.Cvehfu.Xpsltipq.22.28.31!!)Gjobodjoh!qsftfoubujpo!cz!uif 22 R/7/b Qbdlfu!Qh/!3157 Residential building permits spiked in the aftermath of Irma as rebuilding rebounded.This strength is supported by low interest rates, work from home, and the attractiveness of the Keys.But ROGO and the rebound after the hurricane dissipate over time Residential Building Permits© PFM Buubdinfou;!Npospf.Dpvouz.Cvehfu.Xpsltipq.22.28.31!!)Gjobodjoh!qsftfoubujpo!cz!uif 23 R/7/b Qbdlfu!Qh/!3158 Methodology to Forecast Key Revenues © PFM Buubdinfou;!Npospf.Dpvouz.Cvehfu.Xpsltipq.22.28.31!!)Gjobodjoh!qsftfoubujpo!cz!uif 24 R/7/b Qbdlfu!Qh/!3159 Monroe County identifies key revenues of interestCounty provides historical data to PFMPFM obtains data and forecasts for independent variables to used to drive forecasts for County’s key revenuesPFM develops econometric equations to explain trajectory for key revenues as a function of logically related economic drivesExample: growth in infrastructure sales tax is explained by growth in County retail sales, population growth and a dummy for structural change. Methodology to Forecast Key Revenues© PFM Buubdinfou;!Npospf.Dpvouz.Cvehfu.Xpsltipq.22.28.31!!)Gjobodjoh!qsftfoubujpo!cz!uif 25 R/7/b Qbdlfu!Qh/!315: © PFM FORECASTS FOR SELECTED KEY REVENUESBaseline Case Buubdinfou;!Npospf.Dpvouz.Cvehfu.Xpsltipq.22.28.31!!)Gjobodjoh!qsftfoubujpo!cz!uif Buubdinfou;!Npospf.Dpvouz.Cvehfu.Xpsltipq.22.28.31!!)Gjobodjoh!qsftfoubujpo!cz!uif Buubdinfou;!Npospf.Dpvouz.Cvehfu.Xpsltipq.22.28.31!!)Gjobodjoh!qsftfoubujpo!cz!uif 28 R/7/b Qbdlfu!Qh/!3163 Base Case © PFM Buubdinfou;!Npospf.Dpvouz.Cvehfu.Xpsltipq.22.28.31!!)Gjobodjoh!qsftfoubujpo!cz!uif Buubdinfou;!Npospf.Dpvouz.Cvehfu.Xpsltipq.22.28.31!!)Gjobodjoh!qsftfoubujpo!cz!uif Buubdinfou;!Npospf.Dpvouz.Cvehfu.Xpsltipq.22.28.31!!)Gjobodjoh!qsftfoubujpo!cz!uif 31 R/7/b Qbdlfu!Qh/!3166 Base Case © PFM Buubdinfou;!Npospf.Dpvouz.Cvehfu.Xpsltipq.22.28.31!!)Gjobodjoh!qsftfoubujpo!cz!uif Buubdinfou;!Npospf.Dpvouz.Cvehfu.Xpsltipq.22.28.31!!)Gjobodjoh!qsftfoubujpo!cz!uif Buubdinfou;!Npospf.Dpvouz.Cvehfu.Xpsltipq.22.28.31!!)Gjobodjoh!qsftfoubujpo!cz!uif 34 R/7/b Qbdlfu!Qh/!3169 PESSIMISTIC CASE – FORECAST FOR SELECTED KEY REVENUES © PFM Buubdinfou;!Npospf.Dpvouz.Cvehfu.Xpsltipq.22.28.31!!)Gjobodjoh!qsftfoubujpo!cz!uif Buubdinfou;!Npospf.Dpvouz.Cvehfu.Xpsltipq.22.28.31!!)Gjobodjoh!qsftfoubujpo!cz!uif Buubdinfou;!Npospf.Dpvouz.Cvehfu.Xpsltipq.22.28.31!!)Gjobodjoh!qsftfoubujpo!cz!uif 37 R/7/b Qbdlfu!Qh/!3172 This research and any forecast are based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. Disclaimer© PFM Buubdinfou;!Npospf.Dpvouz.Cvehfu.Xpsltipq.22.28.31!!)Gjobodjoh!qsftfoubujpo!cz!uif Buubdinfou;!Npospf.Dpvouz.Cvehfu.Xpsltipq.22.28.31!!)Gjobodjoh!qsftfoubujpo!cz!uif 39 R/7/b e red) . s t er no h wev MSRB Qbdlfu!Qh/!3174 Frank Act of 2010, and as a commodity trading - and SEC under the Dodd MSRB Frank Act of 2010. Investment advisory services are provided by PFM Asset Management LLC which is registered - Important Disclosure Information PFM is the marketing name for a group of affiliated companies providing a range of services. All services are provided througseparate agreements with each company. This material is for general information purposes only and is not intended to provide specific advice or a specific recommendation.Financial advisory services are provided by PFM Financial Advisors LLC and Public Financial Management, Inc. Both are registemunicipal advisors with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Municipal Securities Rulemaking Board (under the Doddwith the SEC under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. Swap advisory services are provided by PFM Swap Advisors LLC which isregistered as a municipal advisor with both the advisor with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Additional applicable regulatory information is available upon requestConsulting services are provided through PFM Group Consulting LLC. For more information regarding PFM’s services or entities,please visit www.pfm.com.This material is based on information obtained from sources generally believed to be reliable and available to the public, hoPFM cannot guarantee its accuracy, completeness or suitability. This material is for general information purposes only and isintended to provide specific advice or a specific recommendation. All statements as to what will or may happen under certain circumstances are based on assumptions, some but not all of which are noted in the presentation. Assumptions may or may not bproven correct as actual events occur, and results may depend on events outside of your or our control. Changes in assumptionmay have a material effect on results. Past performance does not necessarily reflect and is not a guaranty of future results.© PFM pfm Monroe County, FL Discussion of Financing Opportunities Sergio Masvidal, Managing Director, PFM Financial Advisors LLC March 2022 2222 Ponce de Leon Blvd 786.671.7480 Suite 300 rasvidals_ pfr corn Coral Gables, FL www pfrn for 33134. Current Market Conditions • Yields have increased significantly to start the year, albeit still at very attractive historical levels. Treasury Yield Curve UST Yield Changes 2.50% 3/11/2022 2.00% i 175 161 a 1.50°0 �- " 150 `j 118 7.3 00. w we C 125 f 5 1.00% o 0 100 a'. 81 .� cc 0 75 t`` 0.50% IP •g i 46 a. o 25 25 31 12 31 i, 2 fi 8 20 12 7 2 yr 5 yr 7 yr 10 yr 30 yr Maturity 2 yr 5 yr 7 yr 10 yr 30 yr Current — — 1 Wk Ago - -- 1 Mo Ago m — 1 Yr Ago si 1 Wk Ago ■1 Mo Ago n 1 Yr Ago MMD AAAG.O. Curve MMD AAA Yield Changes 2.50% 3/11/2022 -"` 120 -a 1.50:b mow, „..�.• - - c 125 113 103 �► • . 175 _ 8261 0.50'l, _ .- - 50 -21 24 : 22 2_ j 22 22 . 75 N ,, 23 23 �`a 23 23 r r. 0.00% - n 25 _ _m_tom.. --_ ``' _---w.i. --- _ i�.. -.__me.� ..-.... 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 0 r Maturity 2 yr 5 yr 7 yr 10 yr 30 yr Current — — 1 Wk Ago - - -1 Mo Ago - - -1 Yr Ago is 1 Wk Ago I 1 Mo Ago t 1Yr Ago 'O PFM 2 Credit Rating Overview • Monroe County does not have any current credit ratings from the major rating agencies. • Based on an independently calculated estimate of the various credit factors listed below, indicated ratings would be expected in the AA category. Moody's Local Government Rating Calculator Category Weight ! Indicated Rating — • W- --hat matters? Economy/Tax-Base - 30% 0:84 Fund Balance 15% 3.14 • Economic and Management profiles are most heavily weighted Cash Balance. 15% 2.98 Management. 20% I 2.25 • Management specifically relates to budgetary practices :Direcr Debt , : . . 10% 1.88 Pension Liability 10% 1.25 Indicated Rating Score 100% 1.93 • Economic scores are based on taxable values and median Indicated Rating :G? 3 family income S&P's Local Government Rating Calculator Financial Measures Debt& Institutional Economy • Management Contingent Framework ° y g° Liquidity Budgetary Budgetary . 10% 30/0 20/0 10% Performance Flexibility . Liabilities — — -- -- — 10%--- ---- 10%-- --10%-- 2 T ' 1.5 ® 1 3 1 2 Client,State Score Indicative Rating 1.95 = AA* 0 PFM 3 Existing Debt Portfolio • Two primary security sources for borrowing: • One-cent Infrastructure Sales Surtax • Approximately $172.1 M outstanding Annual Debt Service Obligations (Special Obligation & Infrastructure Surtax) • Maximum Annual t-Sery ce-of-$'1-6 4 20 — -- — -- - (2021-2024) 0 - - --- -- - - — - 16 - - -- --• — FY 2021 Revenues equaled $28.6M 12 - — — — — • Covenant to Budget and Appropriatefrom non-Ad Valorem Revenues42 1 6 — -- - • Approximately $9.7M outstanding - _ -- _ _ -~ _ _ _ -_ - __ _ _�_- -■--■_-� e-I N M Ct ifl (D I� CO Ql O e-I N M d' tl) I� 00 Q1 O e-I N M N N N N N N N N N M M M M M M M M M M �} g Maximum Annual Debt Serviceof$1.6M N O N N N N N N O N N N O N N O O N O O O • N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N NNNN (2022-2025) ■One Cent Sales Surtax ■CB&A • While the non-AV revenues are pledged, they are not being utilized for payments. (Actual payments are being made from special assessments and/or fund 304) OO PFM 4 Financing Toolbox Widely-Utilized Programs Potential Enhancing Programs FL State WIFIA and Revolving TI FIA A3e4N,Pie ;40'4 Loan Fund Y\ TO' 17. ,1* o77,44,,V*. ants tiki,4:141.,-A-4, •'; Public Private 4F, Partnerships • Green Bonds Sales Tax -tv! • / ESG Bonds ! Revenue Sustainability Bonds Bonds • Wastewater Revolving Revenue Loan Funds Bonds General Assessments Obligation for Local Bonds Improvements Property Toll Revenue Assessed Bonds Resilience Program OPFM 5 Outstanding Security Pledges • Two primary security sources for borrowing: • One-cent Infrastructure Sales Surtax • Additional Bonds Test: 12 consecutive of the prior 24 months must be at least 130% of Maximum Annual Debt Service • Additional capacity of approximately $35 million through the current 2033 sunset date • Covenant to Budget and Appropriate from non-Ad Valorem Revenues • Additional Bonds Test: average of prior two year's non-Ad Valorem revenues must be at least 120% of Maximum Annual Debt Service • Additional capacity of approximately $400 million. • However, the true measure of debt capacity is the ability to continue providing effective County service(s) and make debt payments -- ---- -- -- -- -- -- -- - --- - -- -- - 0 PFM 6 Non-Ad Valorem Revenues • The calculation of FY 2020 CAFR FY 2019 CAFR Fund NAV Revenues NAV Revenues bonding capacity is General Fund 20,172,015 23,257,301 Fine & Forfeiture 12,202,523 12,755,205 provided to the right One Cent Infrastructure Surtax 20,436,462 24,207,427 All Debt Service 92,146 115,495 • This capacity considers Nonmajor Governmental Funds 7,999,993 9,752,572 Total Non Ad Valorem Revenues $ 60,903,139 $ 70,088,000 the-Cou-nty's-20�9 aand - Essential-Services-Covered-b -NAV-Revenues2 2020 audited financials Total Available Non Ad Valorem Revenues $ 48,297,899 $ 69,070,338 • As shown, the -$385 Average Available NAV for prior two Fiscal Years3: 58,684,119 Maximum Annual Debt Service : 18,005,017 million capacity assumes a conservative interest Coverage: 3.26x Minimum Coverage Required: 1.20x rate of 5.00% over 20 (1)Only funds available to pay debt service are shown here(AFR and provided by County). years (2)This calculation takes general government and public safety expenses from total governmental funds and subtracts ad valorem revenues;essential services left over are paid for by non-ad valorem revenues and thus are subtracted here. (3)Based on average of 2019 and 2020 CAFR;uses non-ad valorem revenues from total governmental funds. (4)MADS projected to occur in Fiscal Year 2022. Capacity Estimate: Assumed Interest Rate: 5.00% Assumed Term (Years): 20 Annual Available Debt Service: 30,898,415 Capacity: $385,060,000 0 PFM 7 General Obligation or Ad Valorem Bonds s Another potential funding source: Ad Valorem Bonds • Every $10 million of capital financing would require a millage of -0.0204 • The median homestead property of $463,000 would pay -$9.46/year for each $10 million financed •—Not-I•icely-to-be-the-pr-ima-ry_fundin.g source for capital projects General Obligation or Ad Valorem Financing Capacity Taxable Assessed Values-Monroe County 2020 Taxable Value(Budget) 33,524,119,928 Millage Estimates 95%of Taxable Value 31,847,913,932 Value of one mill (0.001) @ 95% $ 31,847,914 Financing Assumptions Amount Financed $ 10,000,000 Financing Term 30 Estimated Interest Rate 5% ---------- --------------------------- - Annual Debt Service Payment $ — - 650,514- Estimated Required DS Millage 0.0204 Estimated Millage Impact Summary Homeowner Taxable Value Annual$impact $463,100 9.46 $1,000,000 20.43 0 PFM 8 Infrastructure Sales Surtax • Extending or Expanding the Infrastructure Sales Surtax creates significant capacity Extension (years) Additional Capacity* None (2033) $35 million 1-0-(-204-3) $-60 ma.l.la_on 20 (2053) $75 million 30 (2063) $200 million • A NEW Surtax, assuming each additional 1 % generates approximately $28M/yr: • 30-year upfront capacity estimated to be _$300M* • In addition, -approximately 20%- of the surtax-revenues-would_be available on a pay-go basis (--$5M/yr) *All scenarios are for discussion only and subject to credit and market conditions at the time of sale. Assumes phased borrowing program. 0 PFM 9 Thank You . • pfm