Item I2BOARD OF COUNTY COMMISSIONERS
AGENDA ITEM SUMMARY
Meeting Date: September 21, 2012 Division: Growth Management
Bulk Item: Yes _ No Y Staff Contact Person/Phone #: Christine Hurley x2517
AGENDA ITEM WORDING: Discussion and approval of a Resolution by the Monroe County Board of
County Commissioners to execute the Hurricane Evacuation Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), based on
a requirement by the State of Florida pursuant to the Work Program tasks of Rule 28-20.140, F.A.C., among the
Local Governments of the Florida Keys, Department of Economic Opportunity (DEO) and the Division of
Emergency Management (DEM) regarding the State's hurricane evacuation model which projects evacuation
clearance time and DEO's 2012 Hurricane Evacuation Clearance Time Work Group (Work Group)
recommendations.
ITEM BACKGROUND: Rule 28-20.140, F.A.C., which was ratified by the Legislature in 2011, includes
five Work Program Tasks that require DEO to enter into a MOU with DEM, Monroe County, Marathon,
Islamorada, Key West, Key Colony Beach, and Layton regarding hurricane evacuation. The MOU addresses the
DEO and Work Group input variables and assumptions, including 2010 Census data, to depict hurricane
evacuation clearance times for the Florida Keys thru modeling. The MOU is the basis for DEO completing an
analysis of maximum build -out capacity for Monroe County and cities, and determines the remaining ROGO
allocations and distribution while maintaining hurricane evacuation within 24 hours.
The DEO has hosted four (4) Hurricane Evacuation Clearance Time Work Group (Work Group) meetings to
discuss the requirements of Sections 380.05 and 380.0552, Florida Statutes, Rules 28-18, 28-19, and 28-20,
F.A.C., the Statewide Regional Evacuation Study Program model (hurricane model), model inputs, Census data,
behavioral studies, hurricane forecasting, military evacuation procedures, traffic flow rates, private property
rights and takings cases, etc. The Work Group recommended Scenario M5 from among the 17 scenarios provide
by DEO at its June 8, 2012 Work Group meeting. Scenario M5 includes the 2010 Census site -built units (43,760
total site -built units, 27,320 occupied units, and a participation rate of 90%); the maximum number of new
residential building permits for all Local Governments per year for 10 years (annually: County 197, Marathon
30, Islamorada 28, Key West 90, Key Colony Beach 6 and Layton 3); 1,248 mobile home units projected to
convert to site -built units; the exclusion of 870 dwelling units on the Naval Air Station; as well as two (2)
functional evacuation lanes from MM 108-126 (as recommended by Monroe County Sheriff's Office). Further,
the Work Group recommended Scenario M5 with the provision that the City of Key West would transfer
annually any remaining or unused allocations (90) to the other Local Governments based upon the Local
Governments' ratio of vacant land. The vacant lands analysis utilized by the Work Group, includes the
following: County with 8,758 vacant parcels (77% of total vacant lands), Marathon with 1,281 vacant parcels
(I I%), Islamorada with 1,109 vacant parcels (10%), Key Colony Beach with 92 vacant parcels (0.81%), Key
West with 84 vacant parcels (0.74%), and Layton with 13 vacant parcels (0.11%).
DEO provided the following attached documents for the BOCC's review and consideration. The attachments
include: 1) the MOU and associated exhibits; 2) DEO letter to Monroe County, dated July 30, 2012; 3) MOU
scenarios evaluated by the Work Group; 4) 2012 Work Group Report; 5) DEO response to MOU comments,
dated August 10, 2012; 6) Work Group meeting minutes; and 7) Results of 36-hr evacuation scenario, as
requested by BOCC. (SEE ATTACHED STAFF MEMO FOR MORE DETAILS)
PREVIOUS RELEVANT BOCC ACTION: On March 21, 2012, the BOCC discussed and reviewed the
information presented at the January 30, 2012 and February 27, 2012, Hurricane Evacuation Work Group
Meetings. On May 22, 2012, the BOCC discussed and reviewed the information presented at the April 30, 2012,
Hurricane Evacuation Work Group Meeting. BOCC directed staff to request DEO to run a hurricane model
scenario with the consideration of notifying permanent residents (site -built and mobile home units) of a
mandatory evacuation order 36 hours in advance of tropical storm winds.
CONTRACT/AGREEMENT CHANGES: N/A
STAFF RECOMMENDATION: Staff recommends approval of the Memorandum of Understanding.
TOTAL COST: INDIRECT COST: BUDGETED: Yes No
DIFFERENTIAL OF LOCAL PREFERENCE:
COST TO COUNTY: SOURCE OF FUNDS:
REVENUE PRODUCING: Yes —No _ AMOUNT PER MONTH Year
APPROVED BY: County Atty _ OMB/Purchasing Risk Management
DOCUMENTATION: Included X Not Required
DISPOSITION: AGENDA ITEM #
f
MEMORANDUM
MONROE COUNTY PLANNING & ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES DEPARTMENT
We strive to be caring, professional and fair
To: Monroe County Board of County Commissioners
Through: Christine Hurley, AICP, Director of Growth Management
From: Mayte Santamaria, Assistant Director of Planning
Date: August 30, 2012
Subject: Hurricane Evacuation Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), based on a
requirement by the State of Florida pursuant to the Work Program tasks of Rule
28-20.140, F.A.C., among the Local Governments of the Florida Keys, Department
of Economic Opportunity (DEO) and the Division of Emergency Management
(DEM) regarding the State's hurricane evacuation model which projects evacuation
clearance time and DEO's 2012 Hurricane Evacuation Clearance Time Work
Group (Work Group) recommendations.
Meeting: September 21, 2012
I. BACKGROUND INFORMATION
Rule 28-20.140, F.A.C., which was ratified by the Legislature in 2011, includes five Work Program
Tasks that require DEO (formerly DCA) to enter into a MOU with DEM, Monroe County, City of
Marathon, Village of Islamorada, City of Key West, City of Key Colony Beach, and City of Layton
regarding hurricane evacuation. The MOU addresses the DEO and Work Group input variables and
assumptions, including 2010 Census data, to depict hurricane evacuation clearance times for the
population of the Florida Keys thru modeling. The MOU is the basis for DEO completing an
analysis of maximum build -out capacity for Monroe County and cities, and determines the
remaining ROGO allocations and distribution while providing the permanent population to evacuate
within 24 hours. The modeling, utilized by DEO, is based upon model scenarios of two (2) phases
of evacuation, which include:
Phase 1: 48 hours in advance of tropical storm winds, a mandatory evacuation of non-residents,
visitors, RV's, travel trailers, live -aboard, mobile home residents, special needs residents,
hospital and nursing home patients and military personnel, and
Phase 2: 24 hours in advance of tropical storm winds, a mandatory phased evacuation of site -
built units
The DEO has hosted four (4) Hurricane Evacuation Clearance Time Work Group (Work Group)
meetings to discuss the requirements of Sections 380.05 and 380.0552, Florida Statutes, the
Administration Commission Rules 28-18, 28-19, and 28-20, F.A.C., the Statewide Regional
Evacuation Study Program model (hurricane model), model inputs, Census data, behavioral studies,
hurricane forecasting, military evacuation procedures, traffic flow rates, private property rights and
takings cases, the draft MOU, etc (Work Group meeting minutes — see attachment 6).
The Work Group recommended Scenario M5 from among the 17 scenarios provide by DEO at its
June 8, 2012 Work Group meeting.
Scenario M5 includes the following:
• 2010 Census site -built units (43,760 total site -built units, 27,320 occupied units);
o Occupancy for site -built units ranges from 32% to 93% (Exhibit 2 to the MOU)
• participation rate of 90%;
• the maximum number of new residential building permits for all Local Governments per year
for 10 years (annually: County 197, Marathon 30, Islamorada 28, Key West 90, Key Colony
Beach 6 and Layton 3);
• 1,248 mobile home units projected to convert to site -built units;
• the exclusion of 870 dwelling units on the Naval Air Station;
• the maximum sustainable traffic flow rates per functional evacuation lane as provide by the
Florida Department of Transportation (Exhibit 6 to the MOU), as well as two (2) functional
evacuation lanes from MM 108-126, as recommended by Monroe County Sheriff's Office.
Further, the Work Group recommended Scenario M5 with the provision that the City of Key West
would transfer annually any remaining or unused (90 allocations) allocations to the other Local
Governments based upon the Local Governments' ratio of vacant land. It should be noted that the
City of Key West has not received an allocation since 2002 (10 years).
The vacant lands analysis utilized by the Work Group, includes the following: Monroe County with
8,758 vacant parcels (77% of total vacant lands), Marathon with 1,281 vacant parcels (11%),
Islamorada with 1,109 vacant parcels (10%), Key Colony Beach with 92 vacant parcels (0.81%),
Key West with 84 vacant parcels (0.74%), and Layton with 13 vacant parcels (0.11 %). This
provision was added to allow Key West an opportunity to identify its definite need for affordable
housing and reflect that fact that Key West has few vacant parcels while the other Local
Governments face more potential risk if a determination was made by the State that no additional
ROGO allocations could be issued and maintain the 24-hour clearance time.
Based upon the model scenario, DEO has stated that a minimum of 3,540 additional allocations
could be distributed among Florida Keys local governments, while still maintaining an evacuation
clearance time of 24 hours.
Additionally, the County has the following understandings, based on staff s discussions with DEO
officials:
• That at least 1,970 of the available 3,540 ROGO allocations will be allocated to the County,
for issuance within unincorporated Monroe County, after July 1, 2013, at an annual rate the
County deems appropriate and in accordance with its Comprehensive Plan, through June 30,
2013.
Further, that the June 30, 2023 date correlates to the availability of small area data from the
2020 Census, which will be utilized by DEO to update and evaluate the hurricane evacuation
clearance time, at that time.
These recommendations will be evaluated by the Administration Commission and the
Administration Commission will make a decision on the allocation rates and distributions. The
Administration Commission meeting is anticipated to be held in the Fall of 2012.
DEO provided the attached documents for the BOCC's review and consideration. The attachments
include:
1) The Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) and associated six exhibits;
• Exhibit 1: Statewide Regional Evacuation Study Table of Traffic Evacuation Zone
Occupancy Data: Hotel, Motel and other Vacation Rental Units
• Exhibit 2: Statewide Regional Evacuation Study Table of Traffic Evacuation Zone
Occupancy Data for Site -Built and Mobile Homes
• Exhibit 3: Listing of the vehicle count and usage by Traffic Evacuation Zone (based on the
2010 Statewide Regional Evacuation Study)
• Exhibit 4: Percent of vehicles owned that will be evacuated (based on the 2010 Statewide
Regional Evacuation Study)
• Exhibit 5: Identification of contributing vehicles from Naval Air Station —Key West and
Florida Keys Community College.
• Exhibit 6: Roadway Capacity, dated July 18, 2010, established by the Florida Department
of Transportation
2) DEO cover letter to Monroe County dated July 30, 2012;
3) MOU scenarios evaluated by the Work Group;
4) 2012 Work Group Report;
5) DEO response to MOU comments, dated August 10, 2012; and
6) Work Group meeting minutes (Jan. 30, 2012, Feb. 27, 2012, April 30, 2012 and June 8, 2012)
Note: At the May 22, 2012, BOCC special meeting, the BOCC requested a hurricane model scenario
with the consideration of notifying permanent residents (site -built and mobile home units) of a
mandatory evacuation order 36 hours in advance of tropical storm winds. The clearance time results
and DEO explanation of concerns with the concept are attached (see attachment 7).
7) Email from DEO providing results and concerns on the 36-hr evacuation scenario
91
MONROE COUNTY, FLORIDA
MONROE COUNTY BOARD OF COUNTY COMMISSIONERS
RESOLUTION NO. - 2012
A RESOLUTION OF THE MONROE COUNTY BOARD OF COUNTY
COMMISSIONERS, FLORIDA, RELATING TO THE STATE OF
FLORIDA'S 2012 HURRICANE EVACUATION CLEARANCE TIME
WORK GROUP; HURRICANE EVACUATION MODEL; WORK
PROGRAM TASKS OF RULE 28-20.140, F.A.C.; AND THE STATE'S
RECOMMENDED ALLOCATION OF RESIDENTIAL BUILDING
PERMITS TO MONROE COUNTY; PROVIDING FOR SEVERABILITY
AND AN EFFECTIVE DATE.
WHEREAS, the Florida Legislature and the Administration Commission have included
Monroe County within the designated Florida Keys Area of Critical State Concern (Section
380.05, 380.0552, Florida Statutes), and
WHEREAS, the Florida Legislature and the Administration Commission have mandated
that Monroe County include within the goals, objectives, and policies of its Comprehensive Plan
measures to protect public safety and welfare in the event of a hurricane, by maintaining an
evacuation clearance time for permanent residents of no more than 24 hours (Section
380.0552(9)(a)2., Florida Statutes; Rule 28-20.140(5)(a)12. and 14., F.A.C.); and
WHEREAS, the Monroe County 2010 Comprehensive Plan includes Objective 101.2
which directs Monroe County to reduce the hurricane evacuation clearance times to 24 hours by
the year 2010, and Policy 216.1.8 establishing that in the event of a pending major hurricane
(category 3-5) Monroe County shall implement a staged/phased evacuation procedures to
achieve and maintain an overall 24-hour hurricane evacuation clearance time for the resident
population, by evacuating: 1) Approximately 48 hours in advance of tropical storm winds, a
mandatory evacuation of non-residents, visitors, RV's, travel trailers, live -aboard, and military
personnel from the Keys shall be initiated, 2) Approximately 36 hours in advance of tropical
storm winds, a mandatory evacuation of mobile home residents, special needs residents, and
hospital and nursing home patients from the Keys shall be initiated, and 3) Approximately 30
hours in advance of tropical storm winds, a mandatory phased evacuation of permanent residents
by evacuation zone; and
WHEREAS, the Florida Legislature further mandated that the hurricane evacuation
clearance time for Monroe County and other local governments within the Florida Keys Areas of
Critical State Concern (ACSC) and the Key West Area of Critical State Concern shall be
Page 1 of 5
determined by a state -approved hurricane evacuation study, conducted in accordance with a
professionally accepted methodology (Rule 28-20.140(5)(a)11., F.A.C. and Rule 28-36, F.A.C.);
and
WHEREAS, the Administration Commission directed the State Department of Economic
Opportunity (DEO), by July 1, 2012, to apply the derived clearance time to assess and determine
the remaining allocations for the Florida Keys and Key West ACSCs or identify alternative
evacuation strategies that support the 24 hour evacuation clearance time (Rule 28-
20.140(5)(a)12. andl4., F.A.C.); and
WHEREAS, the DEO's 2012 Hurricane Evacuation Clearance Time Work Group
included representation from Monroe County, the City of Key West, Islamorada, Village of
Islands, the City of Layton, the City of Key Colony Beach, and the City of Marathon (the "Local
Governments"); and
WHEREAS, the DEO's 2012 Hurricane Evacuation Clearance Time Work Group (the
Work Group) evaluated, provided input, and, and ultimately recommended Scenario M5 from
among the scenarios provide by DEO at its June 8, 2012 Work Group meeting; and
WHEREAS, Scenario M5 included the 2010 Census site -built units (43,760 units,
27,320 occupied units); a 90% participation rate; the maximum number of residential building
permits for new construction for all Local Governments per year for 10 years or 3,540 (annually,
County 197, Marathon 30, Islamorada 28, Key West 90, Key Colony Beach 6 and Layton 3);
1,248 mobile home units projected to convert to site -built units; the exclusion of 870 dwelling
units on the Naval Air Station; as well as two (2) functional evacuation lanes from MM 108-126,
as recommended by Monroe County Sheriff's Office. Further, the Work Group recommended
Scenario M5 with the provision that the City of Key West would transfer annually (by July 13th)
any remaining or unused (90 allocations) allocations to the other Local Governments based upon
the Local Governments' ratio of vacant land; and
WHEREAS, DEO and the Local Governments recognize that significant vacant lands
remain in the Florida Keys, including: Monroe County with 8,758 vacant parcels (77% of total
vacant lands), Marathon with 1,281 vacant parcels (11%), Islamorada with 1,109 vacant parcels
(10%), Key Colony Beach with 92 vacant parcels (0.81%), Key West with 84 vacant parcels
(0.74%), and Layton with 13 vacant parcels (0.11 %); and
WHEREAS, the hurricane model for determining clearance time and, ultimately, the
State's allocation of County residential building permits, is maintained and run by the DEO and
other state agencies; and
WHEREAS, DEO has determined, based on its data, input variables, and assumptions as
set forth in Part Two of the attached MOU, that the Florida Division of Emergency
Management's (DEM) Transportation Interface for Modeling Evacuations ("TIME") Model is
the model acceptable to DEO to accurately depict evacuation clearance times for the population
of the Keys ACSCs; and
WHEREAS, Marathon, Key West, Layton, Monroe County, and Islamorada staff
requested new participation rate studies be conducted, due principally to the low sample sizes
primarily for mobile homes relied upon by DEO and DEO anticipates conducting additional
Page 2 of 5
human behavioral studies regarding participation rates in the future, prior to any further
adjustments to the County's allocation of building permits; and
WHEREAS, DEO has determined that mobile home residents live in vulnerable housing
and should be encouraged to evacuate before residents of site -built homes, consistent with the
adopted staged/phased evacuation comprehensive plan policies; and
WHEREAS, the Local Governments recognize that the data, input variables, and
assumptions DEO has incorporated into its hurricane evacuation model and this MOU are
subject to change when the 2020 Census data becomes available; and
WHEREAS, the County is directed by Rule 28-20.140(5)(a)l1, F.A.C. to enter into a
memorandum of understanding (MOU) with the DEO and the other local governments in the
Florida Keys & Key West ACSC, which MOU stipulates to the input variables and assumptions
the DEO has used in the Florida Keys Hurricane Evacuation Model, or other models acceptable
to the DEO, to accurately depict evacuation clearance times for the population of the Florida
Keys; and
WHEREAS, the County wishes to comply with Rule 28-20.140, F.A.C. and ensure the
availability of residential buildings permit allocations, consistent with the County's ability to
safely evacuate its visitors and residents, and the intent of the Florida Keys ACSC to "protect the
constitutional rights of property owners to own, use, and dispose of their real property" (Section
380.0552(2)(f), Florida Statutes); and
WHEREAS, DEO officials have indicated, by letter to Monroe County Mayor David
Rice, dated July 30, 2012, that a minimum of 3,540 additional allocations could be distributed
among Florida Keys Local Governments, still maintaining an evacuation clearance time of 24
hours; and
WHEREAS, DEO will report to the Administration Commission on the review and
completion of Work Program tasks in Rule 28-20.140(5)(a)ll.-14., F.A.C., and provide the
recommended allocation rates and distribution of allocations; and
WHEREAS, the County has the following understandings, based on staff s discussions
with DEO officials, and is relying on same, pending Administration Commission approval, in
passing this Resolution:
(a) that at least 1,970 of the available 3,540 permits will be allocated to the County, for
issuance within unincorporated Monroe County, after July 1, 2013, at an annual rate the County
deems appropriate and in accordance with its Comprehensive Plan, through June 30, 2023; and
(b) that, after July 1, 2013, any permits allocated by the State to the City of Key West,
which are not used within a given allocation year or for which the City is not eligible, will be
distributed among the other local governments in the Florida Keys ACSC, in accordance with the
proportion of vacant lands, in each jurisdiction, as indicated in the final report of the Work
Group; and
WHEREAS, the Administration Commission has directed DEO, DEM, and the Local
Governments in the Keys to enter into an MOU to stipulate to the input variables and
Page 3 of 5
assumptions, including regional considerations, for utilizing the Florida Keys Hurricane
Evacuation Model or other models acceptable to DEO in order to accurately depict evacuation
clearance times for the population of the Florida Keys (Rule 28-20.140(5)(a)l 1., F.A.C.); and
WHEREAS, at least 30 days notice and comment period for interested parties has been
provided, as required by Rule 28-20.140(5)(a)l 1, F.A.C;
NOW, THEREFORE, BE IT RESOLVED, by the Board of County Commissioners of
Monroe County, Florida, as follows:
ARTICLE I
1. That the Board of County Commissioners hereby stipulates, pursuant to Rule 28-
20.140(5)(a)11, F.A.C., that:
a. DEO has determined that the Florida Division of Emergency Management's
Transportation Interface for Modeling Evacuations ("TIME") Model is the model
acceptable to DEO to accurately depict evacuation clearance times for the population
of the Florida Keys; and
b. DEO has identified, and the 2012 Hurricane Evacuation Clearance Time Work Group
has recommended, the data, input variables, and assumptions set forth in Part Two of
the attached Memorandum of Understanding for utilizing the TIME Model to depict a
24-hour evacuation clearance time for the population of the Florida Keys.
c. DEO has recommended that a minimum of 3,540 additional allocations could be
distributed among Florida Keys Local Governments, while still maintaining an
evacuation clearance time of 24 hours, and recognizes that Monroe County is
anticipated to receive 1,970 allocations for the time period of July 1, 2013 to June 30,
2023.
2. That County staff is hereby directed to coordinate with the state and other Local
Governments in the Florida Keys ACSC and the Key West ACSC, in order to establish a
formal process facilitating the transfer of allocations from the City of Key West to the other
local governments, based on the relative percentage of vacant lands within each Local
Government, as assumed in the final report of the Work Group, for any allocations in the
prior allocation year(s) which:
a. The City of Key West is ineligible to receive for failure to comply with state law
regarding mandated comprehensive plan adoptions or updates; or
b. Are not allocated by the City during the prior allocation year, through its adopted
building permit allocation ordinances.
3. That Monroe County Mayor David Rice is hereby authorized to execute the attached MOU
on behalf of the Board of County Commissioners.
Page 4 of 5
ARTICLE II
GENERAL PROVISIONS
SECTION 2.01 Severability
If any section, subsection, sentence, clause, or provision of this resolution is held invalid or
unconstitutional by a court of competent jurisdiction, then the said holding shall in no way affect
the validity of the remaining portions, which shall be in full force and effect and be valid as if
such invalid portion thereof had not been incorporated herein.
SECTION 2.02 Effective Date
This resolution shall become effect immediately upon its adoption.
PASSED AND ADOPTED by the Board of County Commissioners of Monroe County, Florida
at a regular meeting of the Board held on the 21St day of September, 2012.
Mayor David Rice
Mayor Pro Tem Kim Wigington
Commissioner George Neugent
Commissioner Heather Carruthers
Commissioner Sylvia Murphy
BOARD OF COUNTY COMMISSIONERS
OF MONROE COUNTY, FLORIDA
IM
(SEAL)
Mayor David Rice
ATTEST: DANNY L. KOLHAGE, CLERK MOA "EOUNTYPROVED AS TO 50RRMEY
I.Date:
DEPUTY CLERK
Page 5 of 5
08-02-12
HURRICANE EVACUATION CLEARANCE TIME MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDING
BY AND BETWEEN
THE FLORIDA DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY AND THE COUNTY OF
MONROE, CITY OF KEY WEST, ISLAMORADA, VILLAGE OF ISLANDS, CITY OF LAYTON,
CITY OF KEY COLONY BEACH, CITY OF MARATHON, AND FLORIDA DIVISION OF
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
This Memorandum of Understanding ("MOU") is entered into by and between the State of
Florida's Department of Economic Opportunity (the "DEO"), the Florida Division of Emergency
Management (the "Division"), and Monroe County, the City of Key West, Islamorada, Village of
Islands, the City of Layton, the City of Key Colony Beach, and the City of Marathon (the "Local
Governments") (all collectively known as the "Parties") for the purpose of complying with Rules 28-18,
28-19, and 28-20, Florida Administrative Code.
RECITALS:
WHEREAS, the Local Governments of the Florida Keys are within two areas that the Florida
Legislature and the Administration Commission have designated as Areas of Critical State Concern (the
Florida Keys ACSC and the City of Key West ACSC), pursuant to Sections 380.05 and 380.0552,
Florida Statutes, and Florida Administrative Code Chapter 28-36, hereinafter referred to as the "Keys
ACSCs'; and
WHEREAS, the Local Governments have adopted state -mandated Comprehensive Plans and
Land Development Regulations, which have been approved by the State, as required by law; and
WHEREAS, the State's Legislative Intent in designating the Local Governments as Areas of
Critical State Concern includes:
(a) Establish a land use management system that protects the natural environment of the Florida
Keys;
(b) Establish a land use management system that conserves and promotes the community
character of the Florida Keys;
(c) Establish a land use management system that promotes orderly and balanced growth in
accordance with the capacity of available and planned public facilities and services;
(d) Provide affordable housing in close proximity to places of employment in the Florida Keys;
(e) Establish a land use management system that promotes and supports a diverse and sound
economic base;
(f) Protect the constitutional rights of property owners to own, use, and dispose of their real
property;
08-02-12
(g) Promote coordination and efficiency among governmental agencies that have permitting
jurisdiction over land use activities in the Florida Keys;
(h) Promote an appropriate land acquisition and protection strategy for environmentally sensitive
lands within the Florida Keys;
(i) Protect and improve the nearshore water quality of the Florida Keys through the construction
and operation of wastewater management facilities that meet the requirements of Sections
381.0065(4)(1) and 403.086(10), Florida Statutes, as applicable; and
0) Ensure that the population of the Florida Keys can be safely evacuated (Section 380.0552(2)
Florida Statutes); and
WHEREAS, the Florida Keys remain one of the most vulnerable areas in the United States to
hurricanes; and
WHEREAS, the Florida Legislature and the Administration Commission have mandated that the
Local Governments (except the City of Key West) include within the goals, objectives, and policies of
their respective Comprehensive Plans measures to protect public safety and welfare in the event of a
hurricane by maintaining an evacuation clearance time for permanent residents of no more than 24 hours
(Section 380.0552(9)(a)2. Florida Statutes, Rule 28-18.400(5)(a)10., F.A.C., Rule 28-19.310(5)(a)5.,
F.A.C., and Rule 28-20.140(5)(a)14., F.A.C.); and
WHEREAS, Florida Administrative Code Rule 28-36.003(2)(a)7. requires that the City of Key
West prepare and adopt an evacuation plan which is consistent with the regional and County plans; and
WHEREAS, the Florida Legislature further mandated that the hurricane evacuation clearance
time for the Florida Keys ACSC shall be determined by a state -approved hurricane evacuation study,
conducted in accordance with a professionally accepted methodology; and
WHEREAS, the Division of Emergency Management evacuation study, titled "Statewide
Regional Evacuation Studies Program" dated November 2010, which includes Regional Behavioral
Surveys Volumes 2-11, and was funded by the state Legislature and the Federal Emergency
Management Agency ("FEMA"), provided the State's principal source of professionally acceptable data
and analysis, augmented by other sources of data and analysis as referenced herein, for determining
input variables and assumptions depicting evacuation clearance times for the population of the Florida
Keys; and
WHEREAS, the Administration Commission has directed DEO, by July 1, 2012, to apply the
derived clearance time to assess and determine the remaining allocations for the Florida Keys ACSC or
identify alternative evacuation strategies that support the 24 hour evacuation clearance time; and
WHEREAS, the Administration Commission has directed DEO, the Division, and the Local
Governments to enter into this MOU to stipulate to the input variables and assumptions, including
regional considerations, for utilizing the Florida Keys Hurricane Evacuation Model or other models
08-02-12
acceptable to DEO in order to accurately depict evacuation clearance times for the population of the
Florida Keys ACSC; and
WHEREAS, DEO has determined that the Florida Division of Emergency Management's
Transportation Interface for Modeling Evacuations ("TIlVIE") Model is the model acceptable to DEO to
accurately depict evacuation clearance times for the population of the Keys ACSCs; and
WHEREAS, the Local Governments of the Florida Keys, except the City of Key Colony Beach,
have regulated the rate and distribution of growth by implementing permit allocation systems to address
hurricane evacuation clearance times; and
WHEREAS, DEO and the Local Governments recognize that significant vacant lands remain in
the Florida Keys: Monroe County with 8,758 vacant parcels (77% of total vacant lands), Marathon with
1,281 vacant parcels (11%), Islamorada with 1,109 vacant parcels (10%), Key Colony Beach with 92
vacant parcels (0.81%), Key West with 84 vacant parcels (0.74%), and Layton with 13 vacant parcels
(0.11 %); and
WHEREAS , DEO and the Local Governments recognize the need to balance limiting the
maximum number of building permits for new construction of residential units to be issued annually in
the Florida Keys with fairness and consideration of private property rights; and
WHEREAS, to address hurricane evacuation modeling for the Florida Keys ACSCs, DEO
established a Hurricane Evacuation Clearance Time Work Group ("Work Group") consisting of elected
officials from each Local Government and representatives from DEO and DEM; in addition DEO
invited representatives of special interests in the Florida Keys to participate, including the Florida Keys
Federation of Chambers of Commerce, the Florida Restaurant and Lodging Association, the Lodging
Association of the Florida Keys and Key West, the Monroe County Sheriff s Office, Naval Air Station -
Key West, the environmental community, and a citizen's advocacy group; and further DEO requested
technical advisors from DEO, the Division, and the Local Governments as well as the Northeast Florida
Regional Planning Council, the South Florida Regional Planning Council, Monroe County Emergency
Management, the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center, and the Florida Department
of Transportation to participate in meeting discussion; and
WHEREAS, four advertised public workshops were conducted in the Florida Keys where the
Work Group reviewed studies and data from DEO and other agencies related to the occupancy,
participation, human behavior, response curves, capacity of the evacuation route, and the number of
automobiles that will likely be evacuated, and other factors; and
WHEREAS, the Work Group evaluated information, provided input, and ultimately
recommended Scenario M5; and
WHEREAS, from among the scenarios provided by DEO at the June 8, 2012, Work Group
meeting, Scenario M5 included the 2010 Census site -built units (43,760 units); the maximum number of
residential building permits for new construction for all Local Governments per year for 10 years
(annually, County 197, Marathon 30, Islamorada 28, Key West 90, Key Colony Beach 6 and Layton 3);
1,248 mobile home units projected to convert to site -built units; the exclusion of 870 dwelling units on
08-02-12
the Naval Air Station; as well as two (2) functional evacuation lanes from MM 108-126. Further, the
Work Group recommended Scenario M5 with the provision that the City of Key West would transfer
annually (by July 13th) any remaining or unused (90 allocations) allocations to the other Local
Governments based upon the Local Governments' ratio of vacant land; and
WHEREAS, following the June 8, 2012, Work Group meeting, technical corrections were made
to the Census site built units revising that number to 43,718 and revising the Key West building permit
allocation to 91, which corrections do not affect the hurricane evacuation clearance time for the
population of the Florida Keys; and
WHEREAS, the Local Governments acknowledge that the safe and timely evacuation of the
population of the Florida Keys in the event of a hurricane requires a consistent and cooperative approach
and to that end, having participated as members of the Work Group, acknowledge that the input
variables and assumptions identified in this MOU are those which DEO finds accurately depict
evacuation clearance times for the population of the Florida Keys for a Category 3-5 hurricane event, as
required by Administrative Rule; and
WHEREAS, Marathon, Key West, Layton, Monroe County, and Islamorada requested new
participation rate studies be conducted, due principally to the low sample rates primarily for mobile
homes relied upon by DEO; and,
WHEREAS, the Work Group accepted the participation rates recommended by DEO, including
those for mobile homes, and DEO agreed to seek funding to provide education to mobile home
occupants regarding the need to evacuate during Phase I due to the vulnerability of mobile homes; and
WHEREAS, the Local Governments recognize that the data, input variables, and assumptions
DEO has incorporated into its hurricane evacuation model and this MOU are subject to change when the
2020 Census data becomes available.
NOW THEREFORE, the parties set forth the following understandings:
PART ONE: RECITALS
The above recitals are incorporated into this MOU and made a part hereof.
PART TWO: DATA, INPUT VARIABLES AND ASSUMPTIONS
The Human Behavioral Studies from the 2010 Statewide Regional Evacuation Study, the 2010
Census as supplemented by the 2006-2010 American Community Survey, Smith Travel Research, and
data from the Department of Business and Professional Regulation, Division of Hotels and Restaurants,
and Statewide Regional Evacuation Study Program for the South Florida Region are the best available
and most relevant data and analysis. The following input variables and assumptions provide the basis,
when used in the TIME model, to accurately calculate evacuation clearance times for the population of
the Florida Keys, and DEO will recommend same to the Administration Commission to determine the
remaining development allocations for the Florida Keys:
V.
08-02-12
A. Number and Occupancy of Units by type of Unit:
Tourist Units: 13,665 tourist units with 11,287 occupied units for the month of July (the
month with highest average number of permanent and seasonal residents and tourists). The
data source for the number and type of units and vehicular use is the Statewide Regional
Evacuation Study Program for the South Florida Region and the Department of Business and
Professional Regulation, Division of Hotels and Restaurants, Licensee File Database, District
1 (March 29, 2010). The data source for occupancy of tourist units is the Smith Travel
Research 2012: Historic Trend Report for 2011 for the month of July. A listing of the units
is within the Statewide Regional Evacuation Study Table of Traffic Evacuation Zone
Occupancy Data: Hotel, Motel and other Vacation Rental Units is attached and incorporated
herein as Exhibit 1.
2. Mobile Home Units: 8,134 Mobile Home units with 4,576 occupied units. The data source
for the number and type of units, the vehicular use and occupancy of the units is the 2010
Census supplemented by the 2006-2010 American Community Survey for Monroe County
and the Statewide Regional Evacuation Study Program for the South Florida Region. A
listing of the units is within the Statewide Regional Evacuation Study Table of Traffic
Evacuation Zone Occupancy Data for Site -Built and Mobile Homes, is attached and
incorporated herein as Exhibit 2.
3. Site -Built Units: 43,718 Site -built units with 27,320 occupied units. The data source for the
number, type, occupancy, and vehicular use is the 2010 Census supplemented by the 2006-
2010 American Community Survey and the Statewide Regional Evacuation Study Program
for the South Florida Region. See Exhibit 2.
B. Response Curve: The assumed Response Curve for model runs is 12 hours for all unit types as
utilized in the 2010 Statewide Regional Evacuation Study Program for the South Florida Region.
C. Participation Rates: The assumed Participation Rates are:
1. Tourist units: 100%
2. Mobile home units: 100%
3. Site -built units: 90% for a Category 5 event
The participation rates are based upon the 2010 Statewide Regional Evacuation Study, Regional
Behavioral Analysis Volumes 2-11, prepared for the South Florida Region, which DEO has determined
reflect the best available data at this time.
D. Vehicle Usage by Units by type of Unit: A listing of the vehicle count and usage by Traffic
Evacuation Zone quantifies the number of vehicles owned (Exhibit 3) and the percent of vehicles
owned that will be evacuated (Exhibit 4). Exhibits 3 and 4 are based upon the 2010 Statewide
Regional Evacuation Study and are attached and incorporated herein.
E. Vehicle Usage by the Special Population: Exhibit 5 represents the number of vehicles that
will be contributed by Naval Air Station — Key West and the Florida Keys Community College and is
�I
08-02-12
based upon correspondence from Naval Air Station — Key West and the assumption that each of the 100
dorm beds from the Florida Keys Community College will contribute one evacuating vehicle per bed.
F. Evacuation Stream. The evacuation stream from Monroe County is the only assumed traffic
demand considered.
G. Roadway Capacity. The Roadway Capacity, dated July 18, 2010, established by the Florida
Department of Transportation is attached and incorporated herein as Exhibit 6.
H. Evacuation Procedures. The following evacuation procedures have been adopted or
substantially adopted by the Local Governments (except the City of Key West) into their comprehensive
plans, and by the City of Key West in Resolution No. 06-244:
Approximately 48 hours in advance of tropical storm winds, a mandatory evacuation of non-
residents, visitors, recreational vehicles (RV's), travel trailers, live-aboards (transient and non -
transient), and military personnel from the Keys shall be initiated. State parks and campgrounds
should be closed at this time or sooner and entry into the Florida Keys by non-residents should be
strictly limited.
2. Approximately 36 hours in advance of tropical storm winds, a mandatory evacuation of mobile
home residents, special needs residents, and hospital and nursing home patients from the Keys shall
be initiated.
3. Approximately 30 hours in advance of tropical storm winds, a mandatory phased evacuation of
permanent residents by evacuation zone (described below) shall be initiated. Existing evacuation
zones are as follows:
a) Zone 1 —Key West, Stock Island and Key Haven to Boca Chica Bridge (MM 1-6)
b) Zone 2 —Boca Chica Bridge to West end of 7-mile Bridge (MM 6-40)
c) Zone 3 —West end of 7-Mile Bridge to West end of Long Key Bridge (MM 40-63)
d) Zone 4 —West end of Long Boat Key Bridge to CR 905 and CR 905A intersection (MM 63-
106.5)
e) Zone 5 —905A to, and including Ocean Reef (MM 106.5-126.5)
The actual sequence of the evacuation by zones will vary depending on the individual storm. The
concepts embodied in this staged evacuation procedures should be embodied in the appropriate
operational Emergency Management Plans. The evacuation plan shall be monitored and updated on an
annual basis to reflect increases, decreases and or shifts in population; particularly the resident and non-
resident populations.
PART THREE: MISCELLANEOUS
A. Liability. As this MOU represents only the Parties' acknowledgement of the data, input
variables, and assumptions DEO has utilized in its hurricane evacuation model, nothing in this MOU
shall be construed to impose any liability on the State of Florida, DEO, the Division, or the Local
Governments. Nothing in this MOU may be interpreted as a waiver of sovereign immunity by any
on
08-02-12
Party. Any provision of this MOU that is inconsistent with the State's sovereign immunity statute shall
be considered null and void.
B. Modification. Modifications to the Memorandum of Understanding shall be valid only when
reduced to writing and duly signed by all parties.
C. Severability. If any term or provision of this Memorandum of Understanding shall be invalid or
unenforceable to any extent, the Parties agree to comply with remaining terms and provisions, unless
compliance with the remaining terms and provisions would prevent the accomplishment of the original
intent of the agreement between the Parties.
D. Termination. Any Party may terminate this Memorandum of Understanding at any time, with
or without cause. Termination shall take effect upon receipt of written notification by a Party to all
other Parties.
E. Notification. Notifications under this MOU shall be made by hand delivery, U. S. certified mail,
return receipt requested, or an express mail service that provides proof of delivery. Notification by a
Party to the DEO shall be directed to the Areas of Critical State Concern Administrator, Department of
Economic Opportunity, 107 East Madison Street, Tallahassee, FL 32399-4128. Notification to the other
parties to this Memorandum of Understanding shall be directed as follows:
1. Monroe County. Mayor, Monroe County, 2798 Overseas Hwy. Marathon, FL 33050 with
copy to the Growth Management Division Director, 2798 Overseas Hwy. Marathon, FL 33050.
2. City of Key West. Mayor, City of Key West, 3126 Flagler Avenue Key West, FL 33040, with a
copy to the Planning Director, 3126 Flagler Avenue Key West, FL 33040.
City of Marathon. Mayor, City of Marathon, 9805 Overseas Highway Marathon, FL 33050,
with a copy to the Planning Director, 9805 Overseas Highway Marathon, FL 33050.
4. City of Layton. Mayor, City of Layton, 68260 Overseas Highway, P.O. Box 778 Long Key, FL
33001.
5. City of Key Colony Beach. Mayor, City of Key Colony Beach, P.O. Box 510141, Key Colony
Beach, FL 33051-0141 with a copy to the City Clerk at P.O. Box 510141, Key Colony Beach,
FL 33051-0141.
Islamorada, Village of Islands. Mayor, Islamorada, Village of Islands, 86800 Overseas
Highway Islamorada, FL 33036, with a copy to the Director of Planning and Development
Services, 86800 Overseas Highway Islamorada, FL 33036.
7. Division of Emergency Management. Director, Florida Division of Emergency Management,
2555 Shumard Oaks Boulevard, Tallahassee, FL 32399-2100, with a copy to the Division's
Hurricane Program Manager at the same address.
F. Effective Date. This Memorandum of Understanding is effective upon execution by all parties
and approval by the Florida Administration Commission and ends upon the termination of the Florida
In
08-02-12
Keys Area of Critical State Concern designations, unless terminated earlier according to Part 4(D)
above.
IN WITNESS WHEREOF, the parties have executed this Memorandum of Understanding on the
dates below written.
Date
ATTEST:
2012
, City Clerk
Approved as to form and legal sufficiency:
Shawn Smith, City Attorney
CITY OF KEY WEST, FLORIDA
Craig Cates, Mayor
0
08-02-12
2012
Date
ATTEST:
Clerk
Approved as to form and legal sufficiency:
, County Attorney
BOARD OF COUNTY COMMISSIONERS
OF MONROE COUNTY, FLORIDA
David Rice, Mayor
08-02-12
Date
ATTEST:
, City Clerk
2012
Approved as to form and legal sufficiency:
John R. Herin, City Attorney
CITY OF MARATHON, FLORIDA
Peter Worthington, Mayor
11
08-02-12
CITY OF LAYTON, FLORIDA
2012
Date
ATTEST:
Norman S. Anderson, Mayor
Mimi Young, City Clerk
Approved as to form and legal sufficiency:
City Attorney
11
08-02-12
2012
Date
ATTEST:
Vickie L. Bollinger, City Clerk
Approved as to form and legal sufficiency:
Thomas D. Wright, City Attorney
CITY OF KEY COLONY BEACH, FLORIDA
Ron Sutton, Mayor
12
08-02-12
Date
ATTEST:
2012
Village Clerk
Approved as to form and legal sufficiency:
Nina Boniske, Village Attorney
ISLAMORADA, VILLAGE OF ISLANDS, FLORIDA
Michael Reckwerdt, Mayor
W,
08-02-12
2012
Date
Approved as to form and legal sufficiency:
Assistant General Counsel
STATE OF FLORIDA
DMSION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
Bryan W. Koon, Director
14
08-02-12
2012
Approved as to form and legal
sufficiency, subject only to full and
proper execution by the parties
Office of the General Counsel
Department of Economic Opportunity
I0
Assistant General Counsel
Approved Date:
STATE OF FLORIDA DEPARTMENT
OF ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY
J. Thomas Beck, AICP
Director, Division of Community
Development
R
08-02-12
Exhibits to
Hurricane Evacuation Clearance Time Memorandum of Understandine
Exhibit 1 Statewide Regional Evacuation Study Table of Traffic Evacuation Zone Occupancy Data:
Hotel, Motel and other Vacation Rental Units
Exhibit 2 Statewide Regional Evacuation Study Table of Traffic Evacuation Zone Occupancy Data
for Site -Built and Mobile Homes
Exhibit 3 Listing of the vehicle count and usage by Traffic Evacuation Zone (based on the 2010
Statewide Regional Evacuation Study)
Exhibit 4 Percent of vehicles owned that will be evacuated (based on the 2010 Statewide Regional
Evacuation Study)
Exhibit 5 Identification of contributing vehicles from Naval Air Station —Key West and Florida
Keys Community College.
Exhibit 6 Roadway Capacity, dated July 18, 2010, established by the Florida Department of
Transportation
16
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Exhibit 2
Table of Traffic Evacuation Zone (TEZ) Occupancy Data: Site -Built and Mobile Home Units
TEZ
Sub -County
Location
Site -Built
Total Occupancy Occupied
Rate Total
Mobile Home
Total Occupancy Occupied
Rate Total
1208
Key West
2,196
67.85%
1,490
1
100.00%
1
1209
Key West
2,252
65.32%
1,471
69
100.00%
69
1210
Key West
1,387
87.89%
1,2191
8
100.00%
8
1211
Key West
2,779
77.69%
2,159
42
100.00%
42
1212
Key West
514
92.61%
476
0
0.00%
0
1213
Key West
11069
87.65%
937
365
96.44%
352
1214
Key West
289
85.35%
247
10
100.00%
10
1215
Key West
1,586
77.96%
1,236
15
100.00%
15
1216
Key West
699
78.40%
548
10
100.00%
10
1217
Key West
610
81.97%
500
576
89.06%
513
1218
Key West
106
84.91%
90
304
79.28%
241
12191
Key West
448
86.61%
388
0
0.00%
0
1220
Lower Keys
1,041
86.36%
899
517
56.87%
294
1221
Lower Keys
1,112
71.22%
792
50
100.00%
50
1222
Lower Keys
1,521
55.03%
837
472
40.25%
190
1223
Lower Keys
2,477
66.98%
1,659
376
48.14%
181
1224
Lower Keys
1,174
59.20%
695
343
62.97%
216
1225
Lower Keys
464
63.79%
296
20
100.00%
20
1226
Middle Keys
747
56.09%
419
458
77.95%
357
1227
Middle Keys
1,613
58.15%
938
204
69.12%
141
1228
Middle Keys
3,854
49.35%
1,902
298
45.64%
136
1229
Middle Keys
1,093
37.60%
411
192
44.79%
86
12301
Middle Keys
258
62.79%
162
422
9.01%
38
1231
Middle Keys
1,155
34.37%
397
9
66.67%
6
1232
Upper Keys
525
57.52%
302
123
33.33%
41
1233
Upper Keys
273
57.88%
158
64
34.38%
22
1234
Upper Keys
885
49.83%
441
122
53.28%
65
1235
Upper Keys
2,299
57.16%
1,314
79
37.98%
30
1236
Upper Keys
619
53.96%
334
162
54.94%
89
1237
Upper Keys
933
52.52%
490
366
45.63%
167
1238
Upper Keys
377
75.86%
286
177
20.90%
37
1239
Upper Keys
1,509
55.53%
838
105
2.86%
3
1240
Upper Keys
1,547
46.15%
714
371
46.90%
174
1241
Upper Keys
1,009
79.58%
803
293
49.15%
144
1242
Upper Keys
487
63.24%
308
809
48.21%
390
1243
Upper Keys
1,114
52.96%
590
649
63.64%
413
1244
Upper Keys
605
32.23%
195
10
50.00%
5
1245
Upper Keys
1,071
34.08%
365
32
46.88%
15
1246
Mainland
Monroe
4
50.00%
2
11
45.46%
5
Mainland
_1247 Monroe
otals_. ._._._
_ _17
43,71
70.59`%
._._._
_ 12
_.7®2
__ _0
, 134
0.00%
_._._
Source data: 2010 US Census and 2006-2010 American Community Survey for Monroe County
Exhibit 3
Table of Traffic Evacuation Zone (TEZ) Vehicle Per Unit Data: Site -Built, Mobile Home and Tourist Units
TEZ
Sub -County
Location
Site -Built
Mobile Home
Tourist (based
on July Occupancy!
Occupied
Units
Vehicle per
Unit
Total
Vehicles
Occupied
Units
Vehicle per
Unit
Total
Vehicles
Occupied .
Units
Vehicle'per
Unit
Total
Vehicles
1208
Key West
1,490
1.08859
1,622
1
1.00000
1
1,804
1.1
1,984
1209
Key West
1,471
0.99544
1,464
69
0.85507
59
1,535
1.1
1,689
1210
Key West
1,219
1.36423
1,6631
8
1.37500
11
147
1.1
162
1211
Key West
2,159
1.41147
3,048
42
1.45238
61
1,035
1.1
1,139
1212
Key West
476
1.22899
585
0
0.00000
0
190
1.1
209
1213
Key West
937
1.31910
1,236
352
1.36080
479
0
1.1
0
1214
Key West
247
1.45398
359
10
1.50000
15
28
1.1
31
1215
Key West
1,236
1.29993
1,607
15
1.26667
19
208
1.1
229
1216
Key West
548
1.31934
723
10
1.30000
13
898
1.1
988
1217
Key West
500
1.40800
704
513
1.40156
719
1
1.1
1
1218
Key West
90
1.64444
148
241
1.63900
395
19
1.1
21
1219
Key West
388
0.00000
0
0
0.00000
0
1
1.1
1
1220
Lower Keys
899
1.22914
1,105
294
0.62925
185
1
1.1
1
1221
Lower Keys
792
1.92045
1,521
50
1.92000
96
103
1.1
113
1222
Lower Keys
837
1.24134
1,039
190
1.60000
304
80
1.1
88
1223
Lower Keys
1,659
1.41772
2,352
181
1.70166
308
62
1.1
68
1224
Lower Keys
695
1.01727
707
216
1.71759
371
165
1.1
182
1225
Lower Keys
296
1.75000
518
20
1.70000
34
5
1.1
6
1226
Middle Keys
419
0.94033
394
357
1.03081
368
392
1.1
431
1227
Middle Keys
938
1.51386
1,420
141
1.39716
197
151
1.1
166
1228
Middle Keys
1,902
1.71451
3,261
136
1.75735
239
1,154
1.1
1,269
1229
Middle Keys
411
1.52555
627
86
1.58140
136
455
1.1
501
1230
Middle Keys
162
1.71605
278
38
1.71053
65
59
1.1
65
1231
Middle Keys
397
1.62972
647
6
1.66667
10
117
1.1
129
1232
Upper Keys
302
1.89073
571
41
1.90244
78
136
1.1
150
1233
Upper Keys
158
1.88608
298
22
1.86364
41
780
1.1
858
1234
Upper Keys
441
0.00000
0
65
0.00000
0
72
1.1
79
1235
Upper Keys
1,314
1.86758
2,454
30
1.76667
53
70
1.1
77
1236
Upper Keys
334
1.79042
598
89
1.78652
159
16
1.1
18
1237
Upper Keys
490
1.32245
648
167
0.93413
156
131
1.1
144
1238
Upper Keys
286
1.60140
458
37
1.56757
58
40
1.1
44
1239
Upper Keys
838
1.95346
1,637
3
2.00000
6
165
1.1
182
1240
Upper Keys
714
1.88936
1,349
174
1.40230
244
654
1.1
719
1241
Upper Keys
803
1.81071
1,454
144
1.83333
264
180
1.1
198
1242
Upper Keys
308
1.42532
439
390
1.40513
548
1
1.1
1
1243
Upper Keys
590
2.12881
1,256
413
1.93220
798
145
1.1
160
1244
Upper Keys
195
0.46154
90
5
1.60000
8
221
1.1
243
1245
Upper Keys
365
0.81096
296
15
1.86667
28
66
1.1
73
1246
Mainland
Monroe
2
1.50000
3
5
1.40000
7
0
1.1
0
Mainland
1247 Monroe
Totals. ......
_ _12
7g32
0.00000
... ..
_ _0
. 38, 79
_ _0
4,S76
0.00000
...�
__ _0
_ _0
1.1
0
Source data: 2010 US Census and 2006-2010 American Communitv Survev for
Monroe Countv:
Smith
Travel Research
2012: Historic
Trend Report; 2010 Statewide Regional Evacuation Study: South Florida Region
Exhibit 4
Table of Traffic Evacuation Zone (TEZ) Vehicle Use Rate Data: Site -Built, Mobile Home and Tourist Units
TEZ
Sub -County
Location
Site -Built
Mobile Home
Tourist (based on July
Occupancy)
Total
Vehicles
Vehicle
Use Rate
Available
Vehicles
Total
Vehicles
Vehicle
Use Rate
Available
Vehicles
Total
Vehicles
Vehicle Use
Rate I
Available
Vehicles
1208
Key West
1,622
90%
1,460
1
90%
1
1,984
100%
1984
1209
Key West
1,464
90%
1,318
59
90%
53
1,689
100%
1,689
12101
Key West
1,663
90%1
1,497
11
90%1
10
162
100%
162
12111
Key West
3,048
90%
2,743
61
90%
55
1,139
100%
1,139
1212
Key West
585
90%
526
0
90%
0
209
100%
209
1213
Key West
1,236
90%
1,112
479
90%
431
0
100%
0
1214
Key West
359
90%
323
15
90%
14
31
100%
31
1215
Key West
1,607
90%
1,447
19
90%
17
229
100%
229
1216
Key West
723
90%1
651
13
90%1
12
988
100%
988
Key West
704
90%
634
719
90%
647
1
100%
1
Key West
148
90%
133
395
90%
356
21
100%
21
L1220
Key West
0
90%
0
0
90%
0
1
100%
1
Lower Keys
1,105
75%
829
185
75%
139
1
100%
1
Lower Keys
1,521
75%
1,141
96
75%
72
113
100%
113
12221
Lower Keys
1,039
75%
779
304
75%
228
88
100%
88
1223
Lower Keys
2,352
75%
1,764
308
75%
231
68
100%
68
1224
Lower Keys
707
75%
530
371
75%
278
182
100%
182
1225
Lower Keys
518
75%
388
34
75%
26
6
100%
6
1226
Middle Keys
394
80%
315
368
80%
294
431
100%
431
1227
Middle Keys
1,420
80%1
1,136
197
80%1
158
166
100%
166
1228
Middle Keys
3,261
80%1
2,609
239
80%
191
1,269
100%
1,269
Middle Keys
627
80%
502
136
80%
109
501
100%
501
Middle Keys
278
80%
222
65
80%
52
65
100%
65
L1231
Middle Keys
647
80%
518
10
80%
8
129
100%
129
Upper Keys
571
85%
485
78
85%
66
150
100%
150
Upper Keys
298
85%
253
41
85%
35
858
100%
858
1234
Upper Keys
0
85%
0
0
85%
0
79
100%
79
12351
Upper Keys
2,454
85%1
2,086
53
85%1
45
77
100%
77
1236
Upper Keys
598
85%1
508
159
85%
135
18
100%
18
1237
Upper Keys
648
85%1
551
156
85%
133
144
100%
144
1238
Upper Keys
458
85%1
389
58
85%
49
44
100%
44
1239
Upper Keys
1,637
85%
1,391
6
85%
5
182
100%
182
1240
Upper Keys
1,349
85%
1,147
244
85%
207
719
100%
719
1241
Upper Keys
1,454
85%
1,236
264
85%
224
198
100%
198
1242
Upper Keys
439
85%
373
548
85%
466
1
100%
1
1243
Upper Keys
1,256
85%
1,068
798
85%
678
160
100%
160
1244
Upper Keys
90
85%1
76
8
85%
7
2431
100%
243
1245
Upper Keys
296
85%1
252
28
85%
24
73
100%
73
12461
Mainland
Monroe
3
75%
2
7
80%1
6
0
100%
0
Mainland
1247 Monroe
otals • .....................................
_ _0
• 38,57
_ 75%
_ _ 0
3 ,3 4
_ _ 0
6,533
80%
-.-
_ _0
-• 5,4 1
_ _0
12®416
100%
�•�-_
_ _0
.-•1 ,416
source data: ZU10 U5 Census and ZOUb-ZolU American Community Survey for Monroe County; Smith Travel Research 2012: Historic Trend
Report; 2010 Statewide Regional Evacuation Study: South Florida Region
Exhibit 5
Table of Traffic Evacuation Zone (TEZ) Data: Special Population
Sub -County
Special Population
Number of
TEZ
Originating Location
Location
Type
Beds/Vehicles Used
Florida Keys Community
1216
Key West
University
College - Blue Lagoon
100 vehicles
Population
Residence Hall
1220
Lower Keys
NAS Key West
NAS Key West - Boca
2,338 vehicles
Personnel
Chica
Source data: Naval Air Station (NAS) Key West; Florida Keys Community College
Maximum Sustainable Traffic Flow Rates per Functional Evacuation Lane:
US Highway 1(Overseas Highway) and CR 90S/Card Sound Road in the Florida Keys, Monroe
County, Florida
Milemarkers
-- --
Functional
Maximum Sustainable
Area
From To
Location/Description
Evacuation Lane
Flow Rate per Functional'
Lane
Lower
2
4
Key West to Stock
Keys
Island
2
900
Lower
4
9
Stock Island To Big
Keys
Coppitt Key
2
900
Lower
9
17
Big Coppitt to
Keys
Sugarloaf Key
1
1,100
Lower
17
22
Sugarloaf toCudjoe
Keys
Key
1
1,100
Lower
Cudjoe Key to
Keys
22
24
Summerland Key Cove
1
1,100
Airport
Lower
Summerland Key Cove
Keys
24
25
Airport to Summerland
1
1,100
Key
Lower
25
30
Summerland Key to
1
1,100
Ke s
Bie Pine Ke
Lower
30
34
Big Pine Key to West
Keys
Summerland Keys
1
1,050
Lower
West Summerland
Keys
34
35.2
Keys to Spanish
1
1,100
Harbor Keys
Lower
35.2
36.5
Spanish Harbor Keys
2
1,100
Keys
to Bahia Honda Bridge
Lower
36.5
37.5
Bahia Honda Bridge to
1,100
Keys
Bahia Honda Key1
Middle
37.5
47
Bahia Honda Key to
1
1,100
Keys
Hog Key
Middle
Keys
47
48
Hog Key to Boot Key
1
1,100
Middle
Keys
48
50.2
Boot Key to Marathon
2
900
Middle
50.2
58
Marathon to Marathon
2
900
Keys
Shores
Middle
50.8
54
Marathon Shores to
2
900
Ke s
Ke Colon Beach
Middle
54
54.5
Key Colony Beach to
2
900
Keys
Deer Key
Middle
54.5
58
Deer Key to Grassy
1
1,100
Keys
Key
Upper Keys
58
74
Grassy Key toMatecumbe
1
1,100
Harbor
Upper Keys
74
80
Matecumbe Harbor to
1
1,100
Teatable Key
Upper Keys
80
83.5
Teatable Key to
1
1,100
Islamorada
Upper Keys
83.5
85.6
Islarnoradato Windley
1
1,100
Key
Upper Keys
85.6
90
Windley Key to
1
1,100
Plantation Key
Upper Keys
90
100
Tavernier Key to
2
900
Newport Key
Upper Keys
100
105
Newport Key to
2
900
Sexton Cove
Upper Keys
105
106.3
Sexton Cove to
2
900
Rattlesnake Key
Upper Keys
106.3
126.5
Rattlesnake Key to
1
1,200
Card Sound Road
Upper Keys
126.5 THEIFT
I
Card Sound Road to
1
900
HEFT
Maximum Sustainable Traffic Flow Rates per Functional Evacuation Lane:
US Highway 1(Overseas Highway) and CR 90S/Card Sound Road In the Florida Keys, Monroe
County, Florida
emarkTs _
MaXiMUM le
,Area
From o
Location/Description
EvacuatioFunctin Lane Flow Rate erFunctional
l eal
Int CR
Lake Surprise to
Upper Keys
106.3
-
905/CR
905A
Crocodile Lake
1 1,100
Ocean
Int CR
Tanglefish Key to
Upper Keys
Reef
905/CR
Crocodile Lake
1 1,100
905A
Int CR
Upper Keys
905/CR
US1
Crocodile Lake to
1 1,100
South Miami Dade
905A
Source data: Florida Department of Transportation: Letter to Department of Community Affairs on June 18,
2010-Tables 2A and 2B; Statewide Regional Evacuation Study for the South Florida Region
Rick
Scott
GOVERNOR
FLORIDA DEPARTMENTof
ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY
July 30, 2012
The Honorable David Rice, Mayor
Monroe County Board of County Commissioners
9400 Overseas Hwy, #210
Marathon Airport Terminal
Marathon, FL 33050
Dear Mayor Rice:
Hunting F. Deutsch
EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR
RECEIVED AUG 07 2012
Please find enclosed the proposed Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) and report
from the Hurricane Evacuation Clearance Time Work Group. As you may recall, the Governor
and Cabinet, sitting as the Administration Commission, has adopted Work Program Tasks that
require the Department of Economic Opportunity (DEO) to enter into a Memorandum of
Understanding (MOU) with Monroe County, City of Marathon, Islamorada, Village of Islands,
City of Key West, City of Key Colony Beach, City of Layton and the Florida Division of
Emergency Management regarding hurricane evacuation (Rule excerpt enclosed). To complete
the Work Program Tasks, a Hurricane Evacuation Clearance Time Work Group (participant list
enclosed) was appointed. Four workshops were conducted to consider the Statewide Regional
Evacuation Study Program and hurricane model inputs, Census data, behavioral studies,
hurricane forecasting, military evacuation procedures, traffic flow rates, private property rights,
vacant platted lots, the draft MOU, and other related research.
The enclosed MOU identifies the input variables and assumptions as well as the model to
be used to depict hurricane evacuation clearance times for the population of the Florida Keys.
Evacuations will be based on the phased evacuation procedure currently in the Florida Keys local
governments' adopted Comprehensive Plans. After the MOU is executed, DEO will be required
to provide a report to the Administration Commission on the number of allocations that can be
distributed to the local governments in the Keys. Based on the completion of more than 100
hurricane evacuation scenarios using the input variables and assumptions in the MOU, DEO has
determined that a minimum of 3,540 additional allocations could be distributed in July 2013
among the Florida Keys' jurisdictions and maintain the evacuation clearance time of 24 hours.
The applicable rules require an agreement on the inputs and assumptions and the parties are not
authorized to set the allocation and distribution which is determined through an Administration
Commission Rule or a comprehensive plan amendment. Therefore the allocation is not included
in the MOU. A selection of evacuation scenarios has been attached for your review. All
scenarios conducted may be viewed at the Department's web site (www.floridajobs.org).
Florida Department of Economic Opportunity The Caldwell Building 107 E. Madison Street Tallahassee, FL 323994120
866.FLA.2345 850.245.7105 850.921.3223 Fax www.FioridaJobs.oro wwwawltter FL EO www.farebook.com/FLDEO
An equal opportunity employer/program. Auxiliary aids and services are available upon request to Individuals with disabilities, All voice
telephone numbers on this document may be reached by persons using TTY/rDD equipment via the Florida Relay Service at 711
Honorable David Rice
July 30, 2012
Page 2 of 2
The Department has mailed the MOU to all local governments in the Florida Keys,
posted the draft MOU on the DEO website, and published a notice in the Florida Administrative
Weekly that the Department is accepting comments from the public on the draft MOU. The
Department requests that you schedule a public hearing in August to consider and execute the
MOU. Please forward the signed MOU with any recommendations to the Department of
Economic Opportunity, Division of Community Development, no later than September 30, 2012,
to be included in the annual report to the Governor and Cabinet.
If you need additional information or wish to have a DEO staff person participate in your
public hearing, please telephone Rebecca Jetton at (850) 717-8494. Thank you for your
cooperation in this matter.
Sincerely,
J. Thomas Beck, AICP
Director, Division of Community Development
JTB/r
Scenario Summary
Phase 2 Scenarios
Category 5/
Level E
Participation
90%
S 1
2010 Census site -built units.
23 hours
,63 - Evacuating Units 25,7
S2
2010 Census site -built units with full allocation for 10 years.
24 hours
,60 + ,5) - Evacuating Units 27,256
2010 Census site -built units with the military adjustment according to information
M5 1
submitted by Naval Air Station Key West and a full allocation for 10 years with a 10-
24 hours
year conversion of mobile homes to site -built and coning for MM 108-126.
4,7 + 3,540 + 1,248) - Evacuating Units 27,27
2010 Census site -built units with the military adjustment and a full allocation for 10
KW32
years, 10-year mobile home conversion to site -built and coning for MM 108-126.
24 hours
Equivalency Rate applied to Key West's entire allocation amount (910 /.78 = 1,166).
(, + 3,806 + 1,248) - Evacuating Units 27,762
2010 Census site -built units with the military adjustment and a full allocation for 10
years, 10-year mobile home conversion to site -built and coning for MM 108-126.
KW42
Equivalency Rate applied to Key West's 30% of its allocation amount ((910*.30)/.78
24 hours
= 350+637 = 987).
(3,90 + 3,627 + ,8) - Evacuating Units 27,65
2010 Census site -built units with the revised military adjustment and a full allocation
for 10 years, 10-year mobile home conversion to site -built and coning for MM 108-
126.
BA-3
Additional units are included to simulate the past 3 ROGO years of full allocation
24 hours
since the 2010 US Census. This contains a potential allocation of 91 units for Key
West in the event the Comprehensive Plan and allocation are amended and approved
by the Department and the Administration Commission.
4,71 + 3,5 + 1, + ) - Evacuating Units 27,96
2010 Census site -built units with the revised military adjustment and a full allocation
for 10 years, 10-year mobile home conversion to site -built and coning for MM 108-
126.
BA-3a
Additional units are included to simulate the past 3 ROGO years of full allocation
24 hours
since the 2010 US Census. This contains a potential allocation of 45 units for Key
West in the event the Comprehensive Plan and allocation are amended and approved
by the Department and the Administration Commission.
(,71 + 3,550 +,2 + 37) - Evacuating Units 27,930
'As discussed during the April 30, 2012 Work Group meeting, NAS Key West evacuating vehicles
were modeled in Phase I of the evacuation but 870 housing units sited on the NAS Key West were
not deducted from the Phase II evacuation. Scenarios M4, M5, M7, M9, and MIO account for this
oversight. Subsequent updates have been received from NAS Key West with the final revisions
submitted to the Department on July 13, 2012.
2These scenarios analyze the potential impacts from the use of the affordable housing equivalency
rate as described in Sections 108-994 and 122-1470 of the City of Key West's Land Development
Regulations. Based on the 2010 US Census and 2006-2010 American Community Survey, the
equivalency rate would be updated to 0.78. Additionally, new development in Key West is required
to allocate 30% of its units to affordable housing which has also been incorporated in the analyses.
Scenario Summary
Phase 2 Scenarios
Category 5/
Level E
Participation
90%
M1
2010 Census site -built units and mobile homes
25 hours &
(,6 + ,1) - Evacuating Units 29,928
30 minutes
All Units — Simultaneous Evacuation
35 hours &
1
2010 Census site -built units, tourist units, mobile homes, and military
30 minutes
(4,63 + 13,665 units + 8,134 units + 2,025 vehicles) - Evacuating Units 41,294
S3
2010 Census site -built units with 50% decrease in current allocation for 10 years
23 hours &30 minutes
(44,630 + 1,780) - Evacuating Units 26,256
S4
2010 Census site -built units with 25% decrease in current allocation for 10 years
23 hours &
(4,63 + 2,660) - Evacuating Units 26,758
30 minutes
M2
2010 Census site -built units with full allocation for 10 years and mobile homes
hours
(,6 + ,4 + ,1) - Evacuating Units 31,93927
2010 Census site -built units with the military adjustment according to information
M41
submitted by Naval Air Station Key West and a full allocation for 10 years with a 10-year
24 hours
conversion of mobile homes to site -built
4,76 + 3,540 + 1,248) - Evacuating Units 27,297
2010 Census site -built units with the military adjustment according to information
M71
submitted by Naval Air Station Key West and a 50% decrease in current allocation for 10-
23 hours &
year conversion of mobile homes to site -built
30 minutes
3,7 + 1,780 + ,4) - Evacuating nits 26,29
2010 Census site -built units with the military adjustment according to information
M91
submitted by Naval Air Station Key West and a 25% decrease in current allocation for 10-
23 hours &
year conversion of mobile homes to site -built
30 minutes
,76 + 2,660 + ,2) - Evacuating Units 26,800
2010 Census site -built units with the military adjustment according to information
M101
submitted by Naval Air Station Key West and a 15% decrease in current allocation for 10-
24 hours
year conversion of mobile homes to site -built
(,76 + 3,009 + 1, Evacuating Units 26,998
2010 Census site -built units with the military adjustment and a revised full allocation for 10
M11
years, giving Key West 30 allocations and 10-year conversion of mobile homes to site -built
23 hours
760 + 32190 + 1 8 — Evacuating Units 26,327
Scenario Summary
Phase 1 Scenarios
Participation
100%
Existing tourist units, additional 100 tourist units in Marathon, mobile homes, and
16 hours &
T1
military; tourist units modeled using tourist occupancy rates for July
(1 6 + 1 + ,13 - Evacuating Units 16,021 + 2,025 vehicles
30 minutes
Existing tourist units, additional 100 tourist units in Marathon, mobile homes, and
15 hours &
T2
military; tourist units modeled using tourist occupancy rates for October
(,665 + 100 + , - Evacuating,Units 13,259 + 2,025 vehicles
30 minutes
Existing tourist units, additional 100 tourist units in Marathon, mobile homes, and
T3
military; tourist units modeled using tourist occupancy rates for November
16 hours
,665 + 1 + ,134 - Evacuating Units 1,734 + 2,025 vehicles
Existing tourist units, additional 100 tourist units in Marathon, mobile homes, and
T4
military; tourist units modeled using tourist occupancy rates for the hurricane season
15 hours &
average (June through November)
30 minutes
(,665 + + ,13) - Evacuating Units 14,241 + 2,025 vehicles
Existing tourist units, additional 100 tourist units in Marathon, an additional 215 units
T5
in Key West, mobile homes, and military; tourist units modeled using tourist
16 hours &
occupancy rates for July
30 minutes
13,665 + 1 + 215 + ,14 - Evacuating Units 16,215 + 2,025 vehicles
Existing tourist units, additional 100 tourist units in Marathon, mobile homes, military
T63
modeled using hotel occupancy rates for Saturday, September 3, 2011 - Labor Day
17 hours &
Weekend
30 minutes
,665 + 1 + ,13) - Evacuating Units 17,767 + 2,338 vehicles
'On July 13, 2012, Naval Air Station Key West confirmed information submitted on June 7, 2012
to the Department of Economic Opportunity regarding updated number of units and vehicles
which would participate in Phase I of a hurricane evacuation scenario. The vehicle number was
revised from 2,025 to 2,338.
2012 Hurricane Evacuation Work Group Report
The Working Group made the following recommendations regarding the hurricane modeling
assumptions and variables of the MOU:
1. Tourist Units: There are 13,665 tourist units with 11,287 units occupied (during July) with
100 percent participation for a Category 5 hurricane event. July is the highest month of hotel
occupancy. The average car usage is 1.1 cars per unit.
2. Mobile Home Units: There are 8,134 mobile home units with 4,576 occupied units with 100
percent participation for a Category 5 hurricane event.
3. Site -Built Units: There are 43,718 site -built units with 27,320 occupied, with 90 percent
participation for a Category 5 hurricane event.
4. Response Curve: 12 hours.
5. Vehicle Usage by type of Unit: The number of vehicles owned was taken from 2006-2010
American Communities Survey data
6. The percent of vehicles owned that will be evacuated is based upon the 2010 Statewide
Monroe County Planning Assumptions, Volume 1-11, Appendix IIIC.
7. Vehicle Usage by the Special Population: 2,338 vehicles will be evacuated during Phase 1
by the Naval Air Station -Key West (electronic message to DEO from NAS Key West on July
7, 2012). The number of vehicles from the Florida Keys Community College is based upon
the assumption that each of the 100 dorm beds will contribute one evacuating vehicle per
bed.
8. Evacuation Stream. The evacuating traffic from Monroe County is the only traffic demand
modeled (Section 163.3178(9), F.S.)
9. The Roadway Capacity, dated June 18, 2010, established by the Florida Department of
Transportation.
Monroe County made the following recommendations regarding future allocations and
mitigation options:
1. Local governments could consider Statutory, Rule and Comprehensive Plan revisions to
amend the clearance time thresholds to reflect any improvements in forecasting.
2. Local governments could consider changing the rates and/or distribution of allocations to
allow additional time to address vacant parcels as well as redistribute the potential, new
vehicles participating in future evacuation events (reduce evacuating traffic).
3. Local governments could consider road improvements to address roadway capacity. It was
noted that these projects are long term, costly, controversial and may conflict with
community character.
4. Local governments should consider adopting policies to create and allow alternative uses of
vacant properties, particularly along US L Local governments can consider re -designating
parcels to provide alternatives to residential development.
5. Local governments should adopt new funding mechanisms for land acquisition and
management to accelerate the extinguishment of development rights and reduce evacuating
traffic.
6. Local governments should adopt new incentives to facilitate development that donates land
in order to extinguish development rights and reduce evacuating traffic.
7. Local governments should consider adopting policies to allow the transfer of development
rights across jurisdictional boundary lines to redistribute existing density and reduce
exposure to property rights takings cases.
8. Local governments could consider the construction of shelters outside of coastal high hazard
areas in Monroe County funded by impact fees to improve public safety and reduce the
number of evacuating vehicles. Note, this concept is not supported by the Florida Division
of Emergency Management and only 3% of the population uses shelters.
9. Local governments could consider petitioning the federal government to designate all eligible
vacant lots within the Keys as Coastal Barrier Resource Units (CBRS) to limit the
developable areas that can receive federal funds or subsidies, such as flood insurance.
The Work Group made the following recommendations regarding future allocations:
The Work Group recommended scenario M5, from the scenarios presented on June 8, 2012,
which includes the continuation of full allocations for each local government, with a
provision that the City of Key West would transfer annually (by July 151), any remaining
allocations for the year to the other local governments. The unused allocations would be
distributed to the other local governments based upon the local governments' ratio of vacant
platted land. The vacant land analysis is the comparison of each local government's vacant
land percentage to the whole of all the vacant lands in the Florida Keys.
The following table illustrates how the redistribution of the surplus allocations would be made
based on the vacant land analysis. Key Colony Beach and Layton have less than 1 percent of the
vacant land and would receive fractional allocations. Fractional units (to two decimal places) can
be accumulated. However, only whole allocations can be awarded for the purposes of permit
issuance.
Vacant Land Analysis
Table
Vacant
Parcels
% of Total
Vacant
Parcels
% of Surplus
Key West
Allocations
Islamorada
1,109
9.86%
5.03
Key Colony Beach
92
0.82%
0.42
Layton
13
0.12%
0.06
Marathon
1,281
11.38%
5.81
Unincorporated Monroe
County
8758
77.83%
39.69
Total
11,253
100.00%
51.00
Concerns expressed by the Majority of the Work Group
1. Timing of mobile home evacuation: There is little information available regarding the
precise time when a mobile home occupant will evacuate. Some members believe that
mobile home occupants will not evacuate during Phase 1 and should be modeled as Phase
2. No evidence exists to indicate that mobile home occupants do or do not leave during
Phase 1 of the phased evacuation.
Note: DEO recommended that educational workshops be conducted with the mobile
home parks to provide education and to improve evacuation support services for
individuals with pets and those lacking transportation to facilitate evacuation from mobile
homes that are vulnerable to flooding, high winds and do not meet the current wind load
standards under the Florida Building Code. The County Emergency Operations Director
orders residents in vulnerable dwelling units to evacuate prior to the mandatory order for
site built units.
2. Human Behavioral Surveys conducted by Dr. Baker for the DEM Statewide Regional
Hurricane Evacuation Study indicates that 88 percent of mobile home occupants would
evacuate for a Category 5 evacuation. The surveys included 400 telephone surveys
conducted in Monroe County with 44 responses from mobile home occupants. These
numbers were aggregated with Miami -Dade and Broward mobile home surveys for a
total of 1600 surveys. While statistically sound, the small response from mobile home
occupants in the Florida Keys was a concern to the Work Group since the adopted
comprehensive plan policies and the Hurricane Evacuation model assume that the mobile
home occupants evacuate on Phase 1 of the evacuation. Monroe County recommended
that additional surveys of mobile home occupants be conducted.
Note: Several evacuation scenarios include 15% or 1,248 mobile home units modeled as
evacuating with the site built units during Phase 2 and produced a 24 hour evacuation
clearance time.
3. Mobile home occupancy rate: Some members questioned the validity of the occupancy
rates reported by the U.S. Census and American Community Survey which indicates that
out of 8,134 mobile homes, there are only 4,576 occupied units.
Note: This is the most recent, best available and relevant data.
Public Comments and responses
• Some citizens took the position that because the phased evacuation covers 48 hours, there
is a clearance time of 48 hours, not 24 hours.
Note: The early evacuation of tourists and mobile home occupants is mitigation to
maintain the 24 hour evacuation clearance time. The policy has been adopted for more
than five years and the hurricane evacuation modeling software was developed in
response to the adopted policy. To modify the policy requires a comprehensive plan
amendment for five of the six local governments. Key West adopted the phased
evacuation policy by City Resolution. The adopted policies must be consistent with each
other since the evacuation of the Florida Keys involves all of the local governments.
• Reduce units to the extent possible using vacant land analysis, until road improvements
are made or develop additional means for evacuation.
• Petition for a toll on US 1 and use funds for land acquisition to extinguish development
rights.
• If future studies are proposed, the studies should first be submitted to Florida Division of
Emergency Management for methodology approval.
• Tourist occupancy: Citizens recommended using the occupancy rate for the month of
September and provided data showing that around 46% of hurricanes had occurred in
September. The highest average hotel occupancy rate for the year occurs during July
(Key West 90.5%, Lower Keys-75.9%, Marathon and Key Colony Beach 79%,
Islamorada/Layton 67.5%, Key Largo 77.8%). The September average occupancy rate is
lower than July's average occupancy rate. The citizens recommended using the Labor
Day week -end occupancy rate which is 97% for Key West and 93% for the balance of the
Keys for the Saturday during Labor Day weekend.
Note: DEO staff conducted a scenario using the highest occupied week end of the year
which is Labor Day week end (97% and 93%) and the resulting evacuating time for
Phase 1 was 17.5 hours.
• Some members expressed concern that mobile home occupants are permanent residents
and should be counted evacuating with the Phase 2 site -built units.
Note: The adopted policies notify mobile home occupants to evacuate at 36 hours. The
balance of the permanent residents live in permanent site built structures. Mobile homes
are more vulnerable and mobile home occupants are asked to leave earlier as a safety
precaution. Several evacuation scenarios include 15% or 1,248 mobile home units
modeled as evacuating with the site built units during Phase 2 and produced a 24 hour
evacuation clearance time.
• The currently adopted 48-hour phased evacuation policy is not reasonable due to the
nature of hurricane storm events and tourists may not be able to evacuate before mobile
and site -built units evacuate.
Note: The application of the worst case scenario would result in a building moratorium.
Current hurricane forecasting and the media provide significant advance notice of
approaching weather conditions.
The Hurricane Evacuation Model accounts for 38% of the existing site built units because
the Census data reports the balance of the site built units as vacant, therefore, providing
evacuation clearance time results that are lower because of the applied occupancy and
participation rates. The model should assume that some percentage of the vacant homes
reported by the census and American Communities Surveys are being occupied by
seasonal occupants.
Note: Insufficient data exists to provide an accounting for how many seasonal units may
be rented without authorization or registration with the Department of Business and
Professional Regulation and/or the local governments that issue vacation rental licenses.
Insufficient data exists to determine the number of units that may be occupied by a friend
or relative, but have been classified as "vacant" in the hurricane evacuation model.
• Comments received from the public indicated there could be unlawful downstairs
enclosures that are being reported by FEMA officials that may not have been counted by
the US Census or included in the hurricane evacuation model's evacuation stream.
Note: FEMA and the County are compiling the number. The County has implemented a
program for home inspection when flood insurance policies must be renewed and when
property sales occur and is taking enforcement action as needed.
• Comments received from the public recommended that the model use assumptions that
account for a fast intensification of a hurricane where a phased evacuation is not possible
and tourists and permanent residents evacuate simultaneously. Under this scenario, no
additional new development could occur.
Note: With current technology, citizens are aware of potential storm threats several days
in advance. Weather forecasting to predict where a hurricane will strike has improved
and forecasters are able to predict as far out as 36 hours. The ability to project the precise
intensity of the hurricane strike continues to be a challenge.
• Mr. James Franklin, with the National Hurricane Center, reported that the National
Hurricane Center has improved in its ability to project where a hurricane will make
landfall from 24 hours to 36 hours; however, rapid intensification of a hurricane system is
still a major issue with forecasting. He indicated that the Weather Forecasting Services
routinely misses intensity by 1 category and the hurricane track error increases by 45
miles/day. Track errors include: speed (timing) and location. He gave the following
example: 48 hours in advance of storm (center of storm): Intensity is off by 15 knots and
the track is off by 90 miles. 24 hours in advance of storm (center of storm): Intensity off
by 11 knots and track is off by 51 miles.
• The occupancy rate for the existing site -built units could increase resulting in a longer
evacuation time.
Note: Occupancy has declined over a 20 year period.
• Change rate and distribution of allocations based on vacant land analysis Keys wide.
• Decrease annual allocation rate to provide more time for acquisition of land and reduce
evacuation stream
• Increase road capacity to facilitate evacuation.
• Re -designate vacant platted lots close to US 1 for commercial/office uses to reduce
residential evacuation.
• Revise evacuation clearance time in status and plans based on improved capacity.
• Consider referendum to create dependent taxing authority for land acquisition to reduce
future evacuation stream.
Attachments
Excerpt of Rule 28-20.140, F.A. C.
11. By July 1, 2012, Monroe County shall enter into a memorandum of understanding
with the Department of Community Affairs, Division of Emergency Management,
Marathon, Islamorada, Key West, Key Colony Beach, and Layton after a notice
and comment period of at least 30 days for interested parties. The memorandum
of understanding shall stipulate, based on professionally acceptable data and
analysis, the input variables and assumptions, including regional considerations,
for utilizing the Florida Keys Hurricane Evacuation Model or other models
acceptable to the Department to accurately depict evacuation clearance times for
the population of the Florida Keys.
12. By July 1, 2012, the Florida Keys Hurricane Evacuation Model shall be run with
the agreed upon variables from the memorandum of understanding to complete an
analysis of maximum build -out capacity for the Florida Keys Area of Critical
State Concern, consistent with the requirement to maintain a 24-hour evacuation
clearance time and the Florida Keys Carrying Capacity Study constraints. This
analysis shall be prepared in coordination with the Department of Community
Affairs and each municipality in the Keys.
13. By July 1, 2012, the County and the Department of Community Affairs shall
update the data for the Florida Keys Hurricane Evacuation Model as
professionally acceptable sources of information are released (such as the Census,
American Communities Survey, Bureau of Economic and Business Research, and
other studies). The County shall also evaluate and address appropriate
adjustments to the hurricane evacuation model within each Evaluation and
Appraisal Report.
14. By July 1, 2012, the Department of Community Affairs shall apply the derived
clearance time to assess and determine the remaining allocations for the Florida
Keys Areas of Critical State Concern. The Department will recommend
appropriate revisions to the Administration Commission regarding the allocation
rates and distribution of allocations to Monroe County, Marathon, Islamorada,
Key West, Layton and Key Colony Beach or identify alternative evacuation
strategies that support the 24 hour evacuation clearance time. If necessary, the
Department of Community Affairs shall work with each local government to
amend the Comprehensive Plans to reflect revised allocation rates and
distributions or propose rule making to the Administration Commission.
15. By July 1, 2013, if necessary, the Department of Community Affairs shall work
with each local government to amend the Comprehensive Plan to reflect revised
allocation rates and distribution or propose rule making to the Administration
Commission.
Section 163.3178 (9), Florida Statutes
i. A proposed comprehensive plan amendment shall be found in compliance with
state coastal high -hazard provisions if:
1. The adopted level of service for out -of -county hurricane evacuation is
maintained for a Category 5 storm event as measured on the Saffir-
Simpson scale; or
2. A 12-hour evacuation time to shelter is maintained for a Category 5 storm
event as measured on the Saffir-Simpson scale and shelter space
reasonably expected to accommodate the residents of the development
contemplated by a proposed comprehensive plan amendment is available;
or
3. Appropriate mitigation is provided that will satisfy subparagraph 1. or
subparagraph 2. Appropriate mitigation shall include, without limitation,
payment of money, contribution of land, and construction of hurricane
shelters and transportation facilities. Required mitigation may not exceed
the amount required for a developer to accommodate impacts reasonably
attributable to development. A local government and a developer shall
enter into a binding agreement to memorialize the mitigation plan.
(b) For those local governments that have not established a level of service for
out -of -county hurricane evacuation by July 1, 2008, by following the process
in paragraph (a), the level of service shall be no greater than 16 hours for a
Category 5 storm event as measured on the Saffir-Simpson scale.
(c) This subsection shall become effective immediately and shall apply to all
local governments. No later than July 1, 2008, local governments shall amend
their future land use map and coastal management element to include the new
definition of coastal high -hazard area and to depict the coastal high -hazard
area on the future land use map.
Note: This statute provides the basis for utilizing the category 5 storm event.
All local governments in the Florida Keys had already adopted a 24 hour
evacuation time prior to the enactment of this legislation.
Hurricane Evacuation Procedure for all Florida Keys Local governments
In the event of a pending major hurricane (Category 3-5) Monroe County shall implement
the following staged/phased evacuation procedures to achieve and maintain an overall 24-
hour hurricane evacuation clearance time for the resident population.
1. Approximately 48 hours in advance of tropical storm winds, a mandatory
evacuation of non-residents, visitors, recreational vehicles (RV's), travel trailers,
live-aboards (transient and non -transient), and military personnel from the Keys
shall be initiated. State parks and campgrounds should be closed at this time or
sooner and entry into the Florida Keys by non-residents should be strictly limited.
2. Approximately 36 hours in advance of tropical storm winds, a mandatory
evacuation of mobile home residents, special needs residents, and hospital and
nursing home patients from the Keys shall be initiated.
3. Approximately 30 hours in advance of tropical storm winds, a mandatory phased
evacuation of permanent residents by evacuation zone (described below) shall be
initiated. Existing evacuation zones are as follows...
Work Group Participant List
I. Hurricane Evacuation Clearance Time Work Group
a. Commissioner Sylvia Murphy (Monroe County)
b. Mayor Pete Worthington (City of Marathon)
c. Mayor Ron Sutton (City of Key Colony Beach)
d. Councilman Don Achenberg (Islamorada, Village of Islands)
e. Councilman Clark Snow (City of Layton)
f. Commissioner Teri Johnston (City of Key West)
g. Rebecca Jetton (Department of Economic Opportunity)
h. David Halstead (Florida Division of Emergency Management)
H. Special Interest Group Representatives
a. William Knetge (NAS Key West)
b. Daniel Samess (Florida Keys Federation of Chambers of Commerce)
c. Sheldon Suga (Florida Restaurant and Lodging Association)
d. Jodi Weinhofer (Lodging Association of the Florida Keys and Key West)
e. John Hammerstrom (Environmental Group Representative)
f. Annalise Mannix (Citizen Advocacy)
III. Technical Advisory Contributors
a. Jeff Alexander (Northeast Florida Regional Planning Council)
b. Richard Ogburn (South Florida Regional Planning Council)
c. Irene Toner (Monroe County Emergency Management)
d. Lou Caputo (Monroe County Sherriff's Office)
e. John Rizzo and Andrew Devanas (alternate) (National Weather Service)
f. Aileen Boucle (Florida Department of Transportation)
g. Jeannine Kelsick (Areas of Critical State Concern Program)
h. Barbara Powell (Areas of Critical State Concern Program)
i. Christine Hurley (Monroe County)
j. Mayte Santamaria (Monroe County)
k. George Garrett (City of Marathon)
1. Don Craig (City of Key West)
m. Edward Koconis (Village of Islamorada)
n. Vickie Bollinger (City of Key Colony Beach)
o. Philip "Skip" Haring (City of Layton)
p. James Franklin (National Hurricane Center)
q. Bryan Davisson (Monroe County)
r. Bob Shillinger (Monroe County)
s. Richard Shine (Department of Economic Opportunity)
t. Andrew Sussman (Florida Division of Emergency Management)
u. Jim Callahan (Monroe County)
v. Gary Boswell (Monroe County)
Hurricane Evacuation Clearance Time
Member Comments and DEO Response
August 10, 2012
1. Key West Comment: The Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) fails to describe and
apportion among the jurisdictions the 3,540 additional ROGO and/or BPAS allocations
which the Hurricane Evacuation Modeling effort and Work Group determined could be
accommodated in the Florida Keys in a ten year period while maintaining the state
mandated 24-hour evacuation clearance time.
Response: The Work Group's recommendation of Scenario M5 is included in the
"Whereas" section of the MOU and the scenario contains the allocation and distribution
of building permits. We have no authority to include the allocation in the MOU until
approved by the Administration Commission.
2. Key West Comment: (a) The 2012 Hurricane Evacuation Work Group Report needs to
be an exhibit to the MOU. (b) Page 5 of the MOU, item H.1; City staff recommends that
the word "should" be changed to "shall" with reference to the closure of state parks and
the limitation of entry of non-residents into the Keys, at the 48-hour period preceding the
landfall of tropical storm force winds.
Response: (a) The Work Group Recommendations is a staff report. (b) The phrasing is
from the adopted comprehensive plans of the local governments.
3. Key West Comment: On page 6, the "Termination" clause provides that any party to the
MOU may terminate with or without cause. It is the City staff s opinion that such
language renders the reason for the entire MOU moot. Why have an agreement on which
so much is reliant if any party can abandon the agreement at any time? The only way to
remedy this weakness is to implement all its provisions in a rule of the Administration
Commission that requires each jurisdiction to incorporate the principles, assumptions,
data and variables into their respective Comprehensive Plans by a date certain to coincide
with allocations of new BPAS/ROGO.
Response: The Comprehensive Plan controls the allocations assigned to each local
government. If a local government wishes to terminate the MOU and amend the plan to
change the allocation, the local government would need to present data and analysis
which would supersede what has been presented to the Work Group and set forth in the
MOU by both the Department of Economic Development (DEO) and the Florida
Division of Emergency Management (DEM). According to Section 380.0552(9)(a)2.,
Florida Statutes, and Rules 28-18.400(5)(a)7., 28-19.310(5)(a)2., and 28-20.140(5)(a)11
Florida Administrative Code, the model used to depict hurricane evacuation clearance
times for the Florida Keys must be acceptable to DEO, using only professionally
acceptable methodology and sources of information as they are released.
In regards to "professionally acceptable methodology and sources of information", the
population data used in the Transportation Interface for Modeling Evacuations, or TIME,
Model was based on the US Census and supplemented by the American Community
Survey. The US Census, which contains the official population counts, only comes out
every 10 years; there will be no new US Census data available prior to 2020. The
American Community Survey is an annual survey which has three products: 1-year, 3-
year and 5-year. Out of the three, the 5-year estimate is the most reliable in providing a
projected characteristic trend for the population. The American Community Survey data,
however, would also need to be anchored in US Census data since it only provides the
characteristics of a population such as housing traits and vehicle ownership. Additionally,
the TIME Model was created for the state of Florida and is based upon the best available
data. Any new studies and their associated methodology to be used with the TIME Model
would need to be reviewed and approved by DEM to ensure that statewide protocols for
hurricane evacuation modeling are met and utilized. This is a substantial hurdle to
overcome for a local government who would want to terminate and choose another model
and/or data to represent them.
Finally, the intent of the hurricane evacuation work items under the Work Program was
coordination not only between the local governments and the state, but also amongst the
local governments who share the one evacuation route, US 1. The actions of one local
government will have significant impacts on the others.
4. Islamorada Comment: Working Group Recommendation 8. Regarding Key West
allocations: needs to clearly state that allocations must be both allocated and building
permits must be issued and progressing; or if at any time such allocation or permit
expires that allocation/permit is then removed from Key West and transferred to the other
local governments otherwise allocations could simply be allocated with no other follow-
up which clearly was not the intent or understanding of the other local governments.
Unfortunately we must use the "trust but verify" approach here. If this does not occur I
cannot guarantee that any other local governments will agree to Key West receiving their
full allocation.
Response: We are not authorized to address this in the MOU. It is up to the
Administration Commission or the City of Key West. However, a procedure will be
developed to obtain the number of unused allocations annually and distribute the building
permit allocations to the receiving local governments through a plan amendment. Key
West would amend its plan to decrease the allocation at periodic intervals.
5. Islamorada Comment: In Part Two C. Participation Rates my notes state that mobile
home units were to be amended to 95% based on the source of Florida Statewide
Regional Evacuation Study Program, Regional Evacuation Transportation Analysis.
Response: The Human Behavioral Surveys conducted for the Statewide Regional
Evacuation Study Program indicated that 95% of mobile home residents would evacuate
during a Category 5 hurricane storm event. However, because of the vulnerability of
these structures as well as Florida Keys specific modifications that were made to the
Model, mobile home residents were modeled at 100% participation for Phase 1.
6. Islamorada Comment: In Part Two H. Evacuation Procedures (last paragraph) it states
"...in the appropriate County operational Emergency Plans..." Do you mean the County
and each local municipality's Plans, or just Monroe County's?
Response: The revised language was as follows: "The actual sequence of the evacuation
by zones will vary depending on the individual storm. The concepts embodied in this
staged evacuation procedures should be embodied in the appropriate Geumy operational
Emergency Management Plans. "
7. Islamorada Comment: On Exhibit 4 under "Tourist (based on July Occupancy)" "Total
Vehicles" the total on the bottom should be 12,416 not 11,287. This error was not
noticed on previous documents.
Response: Correction made.
8. Islamorada Comment: On Exhibit 5, I am questioning the 2,338 vehicle number,
indicating that due to double -counting which was brought up by C. Hurley that the
number should be the old number of 2,025 — 800 [sic] = 1,205, and not 2,338.
Response: 2,338 vehicles is a revised number provided by the Navy on June 7, 2012 and
later confirmed on July 13, 2012. The 2,338 military vehicles included several site -built
units which have been incorrectly modeled with the Phase 2 evacuation stream in the
past. Scenarios presented during the June 8, 2012 meeting adjusted for this issue by
removing those military site -built units from Phase 2 since they would have already
evacuated in Phase 1. Originally, the Phase 2 evacuation stream was adjusted by the
removal of 870 site -built units. Further correspondence with the Navy revised this
number to 912. However, Peary Court units are modeled in Phase 2.
9. Islamorada Comment: Replace Village of Islamorada with Islamorada, Village of
Islands and also change Part Three E. 6. To Director of Planning and Development
Services it would be appreciated.
Response: Correction made.
10. Monroe County Comment: "WHEREAS, DEO has determined, based on its data,
input variables, and assumptions as set forth herein, that the Florida Division of
Emergency Management's Transportation Interface for Modeling Evacuations ("TIME")
Model is the model acceptable to DEO to accurately depict evacuation clearance times
for the population of the Keys ACSCs; and"
Response: The TIME Model was selected because it is the best available model and
being used for uniformity across the state. Therefore, we are not including this change in
the MOU.
11. Monroe County Comment: "WHEREAS, due to time constraints set forth by
administrative rule, the Work Group accepted the participation rates recommended by
DEO, including those for mobile homes, without further study at this time, and DEO will
recommend that future hurricane evacuation model runs include a refined participation
rate study, in particular for permanent mobile home residents: and,"
Response: The DEO believes that mobile home occupants live in vulnerable housing
and should be encouraged to evacuate during Phase 1 and will seek funding to educate
mobile home occupants regarding the need to evacuate early.
12. Monroe County Comment: "WHEREAS, the Local Governments recognize that the
data, input variables, and assumptions DEO has incorporated into its hurricane
evacuation model and this MOU are subject to change, and, the Local Governments will
evaluate and address appropriate adjustments to the model within each Evaluation and
Appraisal Report."
Response: No new Census data will be available prior to 2020 and local governments
will have incomplete data to analyze regarding future residential population, housing
characteristics and occupancy.
13. Monroe County Comment: Participation Rates: The assumed Participation Rates, for
pumoses of the current MOU, are:
1. Tourist units:
2. Mobile home units:
3. Site -built units:
100%
100%
90% for a Category 5 event
The participation rates are based upon the 2010 Statewide Regional Evacuation Study,
Regional Behavioral Analysis Volumes 2-11, prepared for the South Florida Region,
which DEO has determined reflects the best available data at this time. However, prior to
imposing any further restrictions or other modifications to the distribution of residential
allocations to or among the Local Governments, by rule or otherwise, DEO will engage
in another hurricane evacuation modeling effort to address the concerns raised by the
Local Governments with respect to the participation rates.
Response: DEO is unable to conduct additional participation studies prior to considering
approval of comprehensive plan amendments for Key West and Key Colony Beach to set
an annual building permit cap.
When Census data is available in 2020, it is anticipated that additional human behavioral
studies regarding participation will be conducted. The Work Program anticipates the
review and potential approval of comprehensive plan amendments and/or rulemaking in
the next annual evaluation. Participation studies cannot be completed prior to that time.
Hurricane Evacuation Workshop Minutes
Jan 30, 2012
Mayor Pete Worthington, City of Marathon, welcomed the group and introduced the participants.
He announced that all the presentations could be viewed on the Department of Economic
Opportunity's web site at the following link:
http://www.floridajobs.org/community-planning-and-development/programs/areas-of-critical-
state-concern/florida-keys-hurricane-evacuation
Jeff Alexander, with the Northeast Florida Regional Planning Council, provided a report on the
Division of Emergency Management's development of the regional emergency evacuation
model's capability (Statewide Regional Evacuation Study Program Model on DEO website link)
He provided information regarding the technology used to develop the software and the origin of
the data. Mr. Alexander indicated that the evacuation modeling used a uniform statewide
approach for each county in the state and has received several awards. Additionally, he presented
new storm surge data and how hurricane storm events are being separated (wind from storm
surge) since there is no direct correlation between the height of the storm surge and the wind
intensity. The scenarios produced by DEM utilize 100% participation whereas in the past, the
Miller model used a lower participation rate.
Christine Hurley, with Monroe County Growth Management, reviewed the Administration
Commission's (Governor and Cabinet) adopted rules for the Florida Keys (e.g. Rule 28-20.140,
F.A.C.). She presented the 5 Work Program tasks related to hurricane evacuation modeling and
completing an analysis of maximum build -out capacity for the Florida Keys. The rules include
tasks to update the census data and to develop build out scenarios and reach consensus on a
Memorandum of Understanding regarding the Hurricane Evacuation Model's assumptions and
variables (Administration commission Directive and Progress on DEO website link). She
pointed out that the Administration Commission task will result in the need to amend each local
government's comprehensive plan to reflect ten years growth. The Department of Economic
Opportunity will report back to the Governor and Cabinet regarding the various hurricane
scenarios runs with a recommendation for the new allocation and distribution of growth between
the local governments.
Rebecca Jetton, with the Department of Economic Opportunity, provided the history of how the
24-hour hurricane evacuation clearance time standard evolved and the linkage to hurricane
forecasting capability (Myths and Facts on DEO website link). She discussed the potential
outcomes of the meetings and how the rate of growth will likely need to be amended to revise the
amount and distribution of new development in order to develop a ten year planning horizon and
maintain the 24-hour standard. She stated that the workshop could result in a reduction of units
per year for each local government or a new distribution of units to each local government based
upon the variables that are selected and after the group reviews the placement of development to
see how that affects the 24 hour evacuation time. She indicated that each local government
should carefully review the number of vacant buildable lots within their jurisdiction. She
stressed the need to reduce the liability of each local government to potential "takings" cases. If
the evacuation time is exceeded and privately owned vacant buildable lots continue to be
available, this could increase the potential liability for takings. She explained that each local
government must balance private property rights while ensuring public safety. Based upon
preliminary data, the following vacant lots exist within each local government.
Monroe 8758 Key West 84
Marathon 1281 Key Colony 92
Islamorada 1109 Layton 13
The Work Group indicated that there must have been an improvement in evacuation clearance
time based upon the loss of population and the improvements that have been made to US
Highway One. Ms. Jetton clarified that the improvements made to US 1 have not resulted in
additional capacity for hurricane evacuation. She stated that the Florida Department of
Transportation (FDOT) will provide a presentation regarding the sustainable capacity of US
Highway One at the next meeting. Ms. Jetton provided an overview of previous
recommendations made by several Work Groups in the past to improve hurricane evacuation
clearance time. She stated that attempts to widen the 18-mile stretch had resulted in a law suit.
Recommendations for creating an additional lane with the use of coning had been dismissed
because of the time required to set up the cones, the time lost when cars queue up to cross over
multiple bridges, and that certain employees would have to be designated and remain behind to
handle the cones while their families evacuated. This led to a discussion about the construction
of shoulder enhancements to create an additional lane for evacuation purposes only and that the
Florida Department of Transportation has provided funding for the enhancements within the
FDOT 5-Year Work Plan. The group also discussed the Division of Emergency Management's
preference that the shoulder enhancement lane be used for emergency or disabled vehicles and
that in areas that were already 4 lanes, the Monroe County plan contains a policy that additional
lanes beyond four lanes cannot be counted toward capacity for hurricane evacuation. The issue
regarding the shoulder enhancements will be included in the Memorandum of Understanding
between all the local governments.
Mr. James Franklin, with the National Hurricane Center, reported on the current capability of
forecasting at the National Hurricane Center. He indicated that the Center has improved in its
ability to project where a hurricane will make landfall. The ability to predict intensity beyond 48
hours continues to be limited. Projection of landfall has improved from 24 hours to 36 hours;
however, Mr. Franklin cautioned the Work Group stating that rapid intensification of a hurricane
system is still a major issue with forecasting. He indicated that the Weather Forecasting Services
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routinely misses intensity (off by 1 category). He said that the hurricane track error increases by
45 miles/day. Track errors include: speed (timing) and location. He gave the following
example: 48 hours in advance of storm (center of storm): Intensity is off by 15 knots and the
track is off by 90 miles. 24 hours in advance of storm (center of storm): Intensity off by 11
knots and track is off by 51 miles.
Richard Ogburn, with the South Florida Regional Planning Council, provided a review of how
the census data is obtained and the intervals for receiving the American Communities Surveys
(Census Data in the Statewide Regional Evacuation Study Program on DEO website link). He
described how the data contains three sets of cumulative sampling estimates: 1-year, 3-year and
5-year. The 5-year is considered the best since it has a larger sampling base than the 1-year and
3-year. He explained that data is collected from the US Census block group level which is the
smallest geographical unit utilized by the US Census which contains housing characteristics.
There are approximately 76 census block groups in Monroe County. These census block groups
are then aggregated into 40 Traffic Evacuation Zones. Mr. Ogburn also indicated there are
approximately 20,000 dwelling units that are classified as vacant that are considered vacant and
are not counted in the evacuation stream. Afterwards, the group discussed mechanisms that
might assist in determining if some of these units are actually occupied as vacation
rentals/second homes.
Barbara Powell, with the Department of Economic Opportunity, provided data regarding human
behavior including percentages of how and when people will evacuate (Behavioral Surveys on
DEO website link. She summarized human behavioral surveys taken by Dr. Earl Baker for the
Regional Evacuation including surveys of hotels and mobile homes. She stressed that more
people will participate in an evacuation based upon the perceived severity of the hurricane event
and the urgency and clarity of the evacuation notice. With regard to a hotel survey that was
taken by Dr. Baker, those results indicate that 93% of the tourists in hotels in the keys would
evacuate the first day. Approximately 30% of the hotels would close within 12 hours of the
evacuation order; 66% of the hotels would close within 24 hours of the evacuation order; 18% of
the hotels would not close until landfall; and 3% of the hotels would not close. Ms. Powell
indicated that the surveys show that 15-20% of any type of housing leave before the mandatory
evacuation order is given. She stated that individuals are reluctant to leave after 8 pm. After Ms.
Powell's presentation, the group discussed adopted comprehensive plan policies that direct
mobile home owners to evacuate 36 hours prior to anticipated landfall of hurricane force winds
and how the notice for mobile home occupants would occur at 7 pm at night if the tourists were
notified to leave at 7:00 AM. The behavioral studies also indicate that mobile home occupants'
behavior is much like the behavior of individuals residing in a site built home and that it would
take longer for a mobile home occupant to respond than it would for a tourist to respond and
evacuate. The group discussed running scenarios with some portion of the mobile home units
added in to the site built evacuation. The group discussed the need to educate the public so that
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mobile home occupants will evacuate with the tourists because mobile homes are considered
more vulnerable to damage. Mayor Worthington requested that staff compare the evacuating
cars counted by FDOT for the links and compare that number to the sustained capacity report
developed by FDOT.
Maytd Santamaria, with Monroe County Planning & Environmental Resources, gave an
overview of the various models that have been utilized and the variables of each model (History
of Modeling in Keys and Parameters utilized on DEO website link). She stated that the original
Rate of Growth Ordinance (ROGO) allocation was based on the ability to achieve a 30-hour
evacuation with the long term goal of achieving a 24 hour evacuation. At the time of adoption of
the Monroe County Comprehensive Plan, 35 hours was adopted as the existing clearance time.
When the Monroe County Comprehensive plan was challenged and finally resolved, the Final
Order found that the maximum acceptable clearance time should be 24 hours because of the
National Weather Service's ability to forecast storms, forecast errors, and a lack of shelters.
Maytd provided a brief summary of the models utilized in the Keys, including the PBS&J model,
Miller model, SFRPC model, and the new Division of Emergency Management TIME model).
She discussed the Miller Model, explaining the model is a spreadsheet -based program executed
in Microsoft Excel. The model is comprised of 39 Excel spreadsheets, 31 of which relate to
individual roadway segments. The 31 roadway segments are defined by roadway cross-section,
capacity, and mile markers. She stated the Division of Emergency Management has developed a
program called TIME/CUBE which has dynamic traffic assignment capabilities. This model is
developed in Cube with a custom built GIS based graphic user interface. The Florida Keys Area
of Critical State Concern Program now utilizes the model prepared by the Division of
Emergency Management. Ms. Santamaria explained that the PBS&J model and the Miller
model used a 45% occupancy rate for hotel occupancy. The TIME model currently utilizes an
85% occupancy rate for hotel units for the Phase 1-Day 1 evacuation. Dick Ogburn stated the
85% occupancy rate for hotels represents a worst case scenario for tourist units. The group
discussed completing some model runs using the Smith Travel data that contains current hotel
occupancy for the upper, lower, middle keys and Key West. Maytd Santamaria gave an
overview of the other variables that have been used in previous evacuation models including the
PBS&J and Miller models. (The TIME model scenarios published by the Division of Emergency
Management assume that all tourists and mobile homes have evacuated before the permanent
evacuation is initiated. It has been reported by DEO staff that Phase I -Day 1 evacuation of
mobile home and tourist units can be accomplished in 17 hours).
There was discussion regarding the fact that it takes special needs individuals up to 30 hours to
evacuate for a hurricane storm event. The Special Needs population is notified to leave 48 hours
prior to landfall of hurricane force winds. John Hammerstrom expressed concerns regarding
safety and stated that with the current configuration of the model (Day 1 and Day 2) that it gives
the impression that additional tourist units can be added because they do not affect the Day 2
Phase (site -built units). Rebecca Jetton pointed out that while it appears that there is a buffer
4
between Day 1 and Day 2, the model processes cars until midnight and this is inconsistent with
the behavioral surveys that show that people do not like to evacuate after 8 PM. There was
group discussion regarding the number of vehicles per unit data; the tourist occupancy rate; the
tourist population calculated in the model; storm surge and storm wind categories; and various
scenarios.
Don Craig questioned how the Naval Air Station -Key West orders military personnel to evacuate
and when the families of military personnel leave in reference to the TIME model and indicated
that additional information is needed. The following information is found in the Human
Behavior Studies completed by Dr. Baker for the Department of Community Affairs.
Evacuation of Military Installations
At the suggestion of Monroe County Emergency Management, a representative of
Key West Naval Air Station was interviewed with respect to the installation's
evacuation procedures. Although there are other military installations in the
Keys, the Naval Air Station is the largest, and procedures followed by others were
thought to be similar. Jim Brooks, the Public Information Officer, was
interviewed.
There are 1,676 uniformed military personnel in the Keys, including all
installations, with 1,015 family members. There is up to 459 military training
personnel in addition who would be flown out in an evacuation. Other personnel
and their families would drive their own vehicles in and evacuation. Up to 100
would remain on base. Civilians assigned to the base number 848. No one would
evacuate prior to an evacuation order being issued by the County. (The exception
presumably would be personnel removing equipment.) Salary and expenses would
be paid during a mandatory evacuation and NAS reserves hotel rooms in Orlando
for personnel and dependents. Mr. Brooks estimated that 90% of personnel and
families would leave within 6 hours of the evacuation order and 98% would be
gone within 12 hours. His general impression was that vehicle ownership would
be comparable to the general population. It is possible that a larger percentage of
available vehicles would be taken in an evacuation because certain personnel
would be required to return to the base within 24 hours ofpassage of a hurricane.
The following is a list of actions that the group requested.
Action Items:
Contact Florida Keys Electric Cooperative to request any studies that would indicate the number
of vacant units through reduced electric consumption.
Contact Florida Keys Aqueduct Authority to request any studies that would indicate the number
of vacant units through reduced water consumption.
5
Contact Division of Motor Vehicles to establish the number of licensed vehicles in Monroe
County. Compare to number of cars that are being counted in model to validate the number.
Contact Naval Air Station -Key West to ascertain what type of evacuation policies are being
utilized for military personnel and for military dependants.
Post presentations and other pertinent documents from the first workshop to website.
Determine if any schools meet hurricane shelter requirements (this is being done by the County,
coordinating with DEM)
Mail out draft Memorandum of Understanding.
Report on the percent (and/or number) of units that are second homes. Determine the number of
rented occupied homes from US Census. Reduce the number of non -homesteaded units by this
number to find a rough estimate.
The Working Group discussed problems with citizens gaining entry after a storm event and that
an effort be made to shorten the time involved in re-entering the county. Some members thought
that the delays encountered in re-entry resulted in a decrease in the participation level. The
group discussed the low percentage of citizens who go to a hurricane shelter during an
evacuation. The Emergency Management Director was requested to contact Dave Halstead at
Division of Emergency Management (DEM) to discuss the potential for funding or retro-fitting a
building as an evacuation shelter in Key Largo or in Dade County. The DEM has available 3
million per year for this purpose
Evacuation Scenario Requests:
Commissioner Murphy & John Hammerstrom requested a worst case scenario model run.
Day 1- including tourist, mobile and site -built units.
Christine Hurley requested a model run including vacant, private, non -habitat lots for all
jurisdictions within the site -built (Day 2) run
The group discussed completing a model run with 10 years of growth at the current allocation.
Rebecca Jetton and George Garret made a request for a model rum with mobile units added to
site -built units.
Participation rates: Add the vacant dwelling units from Phase 2-Day 2 to the Phase I -Day 1
mobile home and hotel evacuation stream. The hotels participate at 85% occupancy. The
dwelling units would be considered 100% occupied and another run with 70% occupied.
Occupancy rates for hotels: Use the Smith Travel results which break out the occupancy into
different percentages for upper, lower, middle keys and Key West.
0
Dwelling units: Revise the number of dwelling units to reflect the 2010 census numbers.
Road map Segment: Eliminate segments of North Roosevelt in Key West for two years that
will be closed.
Fl
Hurricane Evacuation Workshop Minutes
February 27, 2012
Commissioner Teri Johnston, City of Key West, welcomed the group and thanked Monroe County
for allowing the use of the Harvey Government Center. Commissioner Johnston recognized
members of the audience.
Naval Air Station (NAS) Key West Emergency Manager Steve McBride provided information
regarding the phased procedures for evacuation of the NAS Key West. Mr. McBride began with
explaining that there are five CORES (Condition of Readiness) (not related to hurricane category):
• CORE 5 — 96 hours out from destructive force winds (50 knots or greater),
• CORE 4 — 72 hours out,
• CORE 3 — 48 hours out,
• CORE 2 — 24 hours out
• CORE 1 — 12 hours out
During each CORE there are certain events triggered, such as shuttering up by facilities
management. There are 4,000 personnel and 2,025 vehicles. A question was asked as to
whether the 4,000 included family. Mr. McBride stated that it did include Navy personnel and
their dependents but only those residing on the base not those living in civilian housing off the
base. Mr. McBride further clarified that of the 2,025 vehicles; there would be approximately 100
RVs. When asked how many personnel remain, Mr. McBride stated that 90 personnel remain —
mainly security, fire control and command staff, those personnel shelter at the jail. Mr. McBride
stated that the RVs are ordered to evacuate at 48 hours out, following the Monroe County
Emergency Management Director's instruction. Mr. McBride stated that the 4,000
personnel/dependents will generally leave at the CORE 2 — at 24 hours. There are 990 iiousilig
� generating the 4,000 personnel/dependents. A discussion took place regarding whether the
model captured those personnel who live off base — it is capture by the Census and therefore
included in the model. Mr. McBride was asked if the navy would evacuate at the 48 hour mark
if instructed by the County Emergency Management Director. Mr. McBride responded by
saying they would follow the County instructions.
A series of questions were submitted by John Hammerstrom and Don Craig. Each question will
be read into the record and answered.
Question 1 Monroe County's new "Official" clearance time is expected to be based on a
computer estimate of the time it would take permanent residents to evacuate to
Florida City under one of thousands of possible scenarios. Transient (tourist) units
and mobile home units are currently not included in this "Official" clearance time.
According to Monroe County Comprehensive Plan Policy 216.1.8, those two
groups are evacuated 48 hours and 36 hours prior to expected landfall of tropical
This number has since been revised as of July 13, 2012 to 912 military units, pursuant to further correspondence
with Naval Air Station — Key West.
storm forced winds, respectively. It has been stated that under one reasonable
scenario using the SRESP model, it takes 17 hours to evacuate the tourists and
mobile homes residents. If that is so, then adding transient units and mobile
homes to Keys housing stock would not affect the "Official" clearance time until
they impinge on the evacuation of the permanent residents in site -built homes.
How many transient (tourist) units alone could be built without affecting the
clearance time of the permanent residents in site -built homes?
Answer: Barbara Powell answered by stating that the Department (DEO/ACSC) can model to
see how many transient units can be added to the first phase of evacuation but before we take on
that task there should be some community choice made as to whether hotels should be built,
where those hotels will be built. There are two phases of evacuation, the first 24 hours when
transients and mobile homes are evacuated and the second phase when permanent population is
evacuated. If you begin to "fill up" your first 24 hours and eliminate the buffer between the two
phases of evacuation, that too needs to be a community choice. John Hammerstrom stated that
his concern was that a developer could argue X number of transient units would not impact the
official clearance time and could be built outside the ROGO units that are allowed. Barbara
Powell responded by stating that hurricane evacuation is but one factor in allowing additional
units and that the community would need to consider whether additional hotels are wanted or
needed. Christine Hurley pointed out that the buffer is shortened by 6 since the comprehensive
plans have a policy that begins evacuation of the permanent residents at 30 hours. John
Hammerstrom went on to clarify that regardless of the policy, the statute requires 24 hours.
Therefore, with transients and mobile homes evacuating at 17 hours, there are 7 hours that could
be filled with transient and mobile home units without effecting the clearance time that's used to
issue permits.
Question 2 How many mobile home units alone could be built without affecting the clearance
time of the permanent residents in site -built homes?
Answer: Barbara Powell answered by stating that the trend on mobile home conversion is that
mobile homes have been decreasing over time and there have been conversions to site -built
homes. It would probably be more logical to run scenarios that would decrease the mobile home
numbers and adding them into the site -built units with a ratio based on the trend. John
Hammerstrom expressed concern that maybe we have created an incentive to build transient and
mobile home units. Rebecca Jetton state that it may lead to a modification of the policy which is
part of the purpose of the meetings. Dick Ogburn added that there is a behavioral question —
typically the order to evacuate is given at a time of day consistent with people's willingness to
evacuate (normally early in the morning) to assume that people will continue to evacuate in a full
24-hour period is not realistic. The capacity to evacuate in phase 1 may not be the 24 hours in
the scenarios. Don Craig added that there are Florida Building Code and local policies that
restrict additional mobile homes because they could not meet the minimum wind force restriction
(150 mph). Clark Snow stated that in these mobile home conversions to modular homes that
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were larger, does the model take into account the increased number of people living in the
modular unit. Dick Ogburn answered that the Census would account for the increase.
Mayor Worthington asked if the phased evacuation wouldn't be a call by Emergency
Management to make the call about when evacuation would take place. Rebecca Jetton stated
that the county had advised her that Emergency Management would not call for an evacuation at
night, having the mobile home evacuation in the policy at 36 hours should be addressed at these
meetings. Human behavioral studies show that people don't evacuated at night and that people in
mobile homes act more like those who live in site built homes. It is her recommendation to
evacuate at the 48 hour mark.
Commissioner Sylvia Murphy expressed concern that mobile home residents be considered
anything other than permanent residents. The residents of mobile homes are the workforce that
we rely on to close up the county (board up the homes and moving the boats to safety) and to
clean up after the storm. Jodi Weinhofer stated that the transients do evacuate early — the
evacuation notice goes out earlier than what is required because it is essential to notify tourists
before they leave for the day's activities.
Irene Toner stated that mobile home residents are ordered to evacuate earlier because their home
is not as safe as a site -built home. She also spoke about behavioral studies that indicate a
disconnect between what a person says they'll do in an evacuation and what they actually do.
During Georges (a high category 2) about 46% evacuated. During Wilma — we told people they
don't have to worry about the wind damage but we're going to have a storm surge. We told
people to move their vehicles to higher ground and evacuate — less than 10% left. The studies are
not are important but you can't really predict what people are going to do. Some people say they
won't leave in a Category 4 because their great great grandfather stayed in a Category 4.
The important thing for us is when a storm is 72 hours out we start our calls and evacuation of
tourists and patients then mobile homes and residents. One thing to keep in mind is that our
decisions are largely based on what Miami -Dade does. During Hurricane Ike, we were making
decisions (Ike was a Category 4 that was predicted to go over the Seven -mile Bridge. Miami -
Dade and Broward were in the cone. During the conference call with the other Emergency
Management Directors, Miami -Dade and Broward said that they were going to begin evacuating
their Zone A at 5:00 am. This represented 500,000 people — so the Keys evacuation decisions
needed to move up in order to account for the potential for 500,000 people to begin evacuating.
Irene emphasized that her decisions are based on the regional effect. The biggest fear is an
escalating storm — hurricane Charley passed over the Keys at a Category 1 and was supposed to
hit Charlotte County at a Category 2 — it escalated to a Category 4 in a matter of hours.
Emergency Management's decision is based on the time of year, the number of residents, the
number of tourists (we work closely with TDC), the occupancy of the parks. At 72 hours we are
already in touch with the County and talking with the hotels, and our regional partners in Miami -
Dade.
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Sylvia Murphy said after listening to Irene, we need to plan for the worst -case scenario.
Question 3 Referring to Table ES-12 - "2015 Clearance Times for Base Scenario" (Volume
4-11, page ES-27), would you please explain:
a) Why, for all Monroe clearance times, is the "In -County Clearance Time"
1/2 hour greater than the equivalent "Out -of -County Clearance Time?" It
is strange that a greater distance would result in a shorter time. [Aside from
that, one would expect that for a Level C or greater threat, all evacuations for
Monroe County are "Out -of -County" and therefore the "In -County Clearance
Time" section for Monroe County should be N/A or zero.]
b) Since there are more vulnerable people and shadow evacuees for greater
storm threats, how can the Regional Clearance Time for Level D be the same
as for Level C?
Answer Part a) Jeff Alexander answered both parts -- The short answer is the model itself has a
30 minute indicator. When the model was run for the in -county and out -of -county clearance the
results landed on different sides of the 30 minutes — time -wise there is almost no differential. As
far as the In -County clearance time being zero it's a calculation that the model makes as to
populations that are (based on the behavioral analysis) going to seek shelter not necessarily
outside the county — even though that's where they're ordered to go. The time is calculated
regardless of the factors.
Answer Part b) At Level C the population leaving the Keys is not overly impacted by the
overall regional evacuation and that holds true for Level D. It's not until Level E that you begin
to get other factors that affect the region clearance time. In other words, there is capacity on the
roads that is not affected between Levels C & D but is affected when you get to a Level E. Tyson
Smith asked to get clarification on the term "shadow evacuation" and what it was for Monroe
County. Richard Ogburn explained that shadow evacuation is the population that evacuated but
were not ordered to evacuate. All of Monroe evacuates for a Level C or higher, so there are no
shadow evacuees. There are however, shadow evacuees in a regional evacuation scenario in
Broward and Miami -Dade counties.
Question 4 Operational Scenarios 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 13 (Table ES-10, Volume 4-11, p. ES-
22) assume "Miami -Dade County and Broward 24 hours after Monroe." Does
this mean 24 hours after Monroe starts their 48-hour evacuation, the full
Miami -Dade and Broward evacuations for that Level are concurrent with the
Monroe County permanent population evacuation? Please clarify.
M
Answer: Jeff Alexander responded by stating, the calculations are based on the 24 hours when
the general order is given to evacuate Monroe County.
Question 5 From Volume 4-11, page II-7, "Two sets of curves were developed, one for
coastal evacuating counties that represent lower background traffic and one for all
other counties representing greater background traffic [my emphasis]. The model
then adjusts capacities up and down consistent with these curves as it simulates
the evacuation." Figures II-2 and 11-3 indicate that during the daylight hours,
background traffic for coastal counties is 1/2 that of other counties, which means
that for other than coastal counties during daylight hours, only 50 - 70% of
highway capacity remains for evacuation, but for coastal counties during the same
hours, 80 - 90% of capacity is available for evacuation. Why is the background
traffic lower for coastal counties?
Answer: Jeff Alexander answered by stating the background traffic for coastal counties is
reduced as evacuating vehicles enter the network. So that population within the area ordered to
evacuate — those vehicles, once they finalize their preparations they are no longer engaged in
their routine activities and no longer contributing to background. There is a progressive
reduction in background traffic during the evacuation event. The traffic is moving into the
Counties that are not evacuating, thus increasing the overall traffic on those roadway networks
therefore making less roadway capacity available for the evacuation. That's how the model
handles the increase/decrease for roadway capacity available for evacuation. It's might be
important to note that a coastal county that does not have an evacuation order in effect would
also have the capacities of an inland county during that particular modeling session.
Question 6 The Dynamic Traffic Assignment (Volume 4-11, page ES-4) describes two
curious characteristics: The "General Model Flow" indicates that one step in the
flow is to "Adjust background traffic," while the other curious statement is, "By
dynamically adjusting the travel times and speeds of the vehicles moving through
the network as they respond to congestion, the model is able to ... adjust the
routing of traffic throughout the network as a function of congestion as it occurs
throughout the evacuation." That sounds like the model will optimize an
evacuation to generate the minimum clearance time for a given scenario, which
seems to be at odds with the greater chaos of an actual hurricane evacuation. Can
you explain how this seeming "optimization" does not deliver a best -case
clearance time?
Answer: Jeff Alexander answered by stating it is not an optimization of the clearance time.
What dynamic traffic assignment does is — as a roadway network becomes congested the model
5
simulates human behavior in that if you are confronted with extreme congestion and you know
another route you will attempt to use that other route until it becomes so congested and then
traffic starts to slow down across the network. Even you are attempting another route to avoid
congestion — your may attempt a route that is congested. So, it doesn't necessarily optimize the
clearance time what it does is try to emulate human behavior in that they will seek out an
alternate route. In Monroe County it is very limited because there are very few alternate routes
available to motorist.
Question 7 Volume 4-11, Page II-2 states, "All evacuations begin when an order to evacuate
has been issued." Since our evacuation starts 48 hours prior to the expected
landfall of Tropical Storm Force winds, doesn't that mean Monroe County
has a 48-hour clearance time?
Answer: Jeff Alexander answered by stating, that from the modeling perspective we calculated
the scenario based on the two phases provided. How you define the phasing is a policy based
question — our math was based on the different staging. Rebecca Jetton added that we think of
that first phase as mitigation. Mitigation is done by trying to get some people out early.
Question 8 "Clearance Time, Out -Of -County: The time necessary to safely evacuate
vulnerable residents and visitors to a "point of safety" within the county [my
emphasis] based on a specific hazard, behavioral assumptions and evacuation
scenario. Calculated from the point an evacuation order is given to the point in
time when the last vehicle assigned an external destination exits the county. "
Volume 1-I I Glossary Do we need a unique definition without "visitors?" Is
"within the county" correct?
Answer: Jeff Alexander stated that he doesn't think we need a separate definition for the
vulnerable population evacuating and whether we calculate the inclusion of visitors or not. As
far as, "Is within the county correct?" People do seek shelter within the county — what we are
trying to determine is the last car that leaves the evacuation network either by seeking shelter
within the county or leaves county — when the last one leaves the county we get this time. If we
discount the "leave the county" part then you calculating the in -county clearance time. John
Hammerstrom asked which calculation of clearance time applies to Monroe County if you have
this one that includes the tourists in it? Jeff responded by stating that this is the definition by how
the timing itself is developed — the definition for the entire state. We take the tourists out when
we calculate for Monroe County. John asked for further clarification by asking when we look at
an evacuation clearance time on the matrix and it's going to be label one of a few different
possibilities, one of them is the "out of county" clearance time and the regional clearance time —
Which one of those is applicable to Monroe County for growth management. Dick Ogburn
2
responded by stating that was something the Department would decide on along with this group.
From our perspective, the calculation of the clearance time for Monroe County that's in the
Study, the out -of -county clearance time is the measured clearance time to the county boundary
because there's no assumption for in -county evacuation. Rebecca Jetton pointed out that in the
Work Group notebooks, there is a letter from the Department of Community Affairs with a
glossary of terms. The letter contains a "proviso." DCA will handle Monroe County somewhat
differently than the rest of the state. We have a unique situation here. In the rest of Florida, when
development is located in the CHHA and the local government has exceeded the adopted
clearance time and a local government wants to increase their density within the CHHA they
have to mitigate or they cannot increase their density in the CHHA. They may however, continue
to build out platted subdivisions. In the Florida Keys, if we have exceeded the clearance time,
theoretically you won't issue any more building permits for new development. We are
attempting to strike a balance between public safety and private property rights. We are trying to
make this software model fit the policies that you've adopted —to the greatest extent possible. If
the policies don't make sense then this will be the local government's opportunity to modify
those policies.
Question 9 "Shadow Evacuation Population: Persons not affected by an evacuation order
that choose to evacuate to another location they feel is safer. This population
resides outside the designated evacuation zone and lives in site -built structures.
The shadow evacuation population can be significant when the risk is perceived
to be great. " Volume 1-I I Glossary
The July 14, 2010 letter from DCA to DEM states, "Based on statutory authority
above, we conclude that shadow evacuation is an important factor to consider
when calculating clearance time. The ability to exit an evacuation zone is
dependent upon the road capacities outside the evacuation zones. Therefore, the
impact of all shadow evacuees must be taken into account. This should be viewed
as a factor integral to determining clearance times. The percentage used to
estimate the numbers of shadow evacuees should be derived from the
behavioral analyses [emphasis added] conducted as part of the SRESP."
Table IIIB-1: Evacuation Rate for Residents Living in Site -Built Homes — Miami -
Dade County
Skt Built Homes_ __-- _
_ _ Cat 1
_Cat 2
Cat 3_
y_ Cat 4_
_ Cat 5
Cat Sine Evacuation Zone
40
50
65
_s.w
Cat 2 Surge Evacuation Zone
30
45
60
so
90p
Cat 3 Surge Evacuation Zone
26
25
60
90
85
e 4 Surge Evacuation Zone
10
15
_30
70
65
Cat 5 Surge Evacuation Zone
8
8
_ is
55
so
Inland of Surge Evacuation Zones
5
5
5
10
2
Evacuation rate indicates the percent of residents who will leave their homes to go
some place safer from each zone in each storm threat scenario. Figures are based
7
on the assumption that officials order evacuation for surge evacuation =ones
corresponding to storm category, plus all mobile homes and manufactured homes.
Figures also assume that that the actual storm track passes very close to the area
being evacuated. Shaded cells indicate shadow evacuation — evacuation from areas
not included in evacuation notices.
This appears to indicate that in a Category 3 Storm Threat, only 65% of residents
in the Cat 1 Surge Zone and 60% of those in Cat 2 & 3 Surge Zones will
evacuate, plus these shadow evacuees: 30% of residents in the Cat 4 Surge Zone,
15% from the Cat 5 Surge Zone and 5% that are inland of all Surge Zones. What
is the behavioral -analysis source of these figures? Would you please show
where the number of shadow evacuees are accounted for in clearance -time
calculations?
Answer: Jeff Alexander stated the source data behavioral analysis were located in Volumes II
and III of the Statewide Regional Evacuation Study Program. It contains the results of the
statewide surveys of 18,800 residents. This was the largest ever behavioral analysis for the state
of Florida. Drs. Downs and Baker from Florida State University provided much of the data and
analysis for the behavioral analysis. Mayte Santamaria added that Dr. Baker conducted the
behavioral analysis for the Miller Model.
Question 10 The caption under Table ES-5 "Vulnerable Population in the South Florida
Region for 2015" (Volume 4-11, page ES-17) states, "Vulnerable population
numbers are not inclusive ... for example, vulnerable population listed for
Evacuation Zone D does not include vulnerable population listed for Evacuation
Zone C." Is the same true for Table ES-8 - "Vulnerable Shadow Evacuation
Population" (page ES-19 - below)? Are the number of Shadow Evacuees used
to calculate clearance times a summation of the current Level and all lesser
Levels times the Evacuation Rates (%) of Table III11-1 (above)?
Answer: They are not cumulative and should not be. The numbers are the actual numbers for
each level of storm. As the storm category increases, a portion of the shadow evacuees are then
included with those ordered to evacuate.
Question 11
Table ES-8 — Vulnerable Shadow Evacuation Population
Evacuation
Level A
Evacuation
Level B
Evacuation
Level C
Evacuation
Level D
Evacuation
Level E
2010
Co
Broward un e T
160 714
167,817
156 617
257 809
345 043
Miami-Dade Coun
206,6031
172,3061
194,056
251,893
450,305
Monroe County
0
01
0
0
0
2013
Broward County
169,295
176 B80
165 025
271484
363,604
Miami -Dade County
217 855
178,3341
202,928
259,579
465,523
Monroe County
0
0
0
0
0
Nolte: vulnerable .shadow populabovn determined using SRE5P behavioral data and county provided evaocuabw zones
See s xew E for Obe source of the small area data.
Building on the previous question, is the number of Miami -Dade Shadow Evacuees for a Level
E, 2015 evacuation the sum all Levels, or 1,324,219, that would supplement the total Vulnerable
Population from Table ES-5 of 500,275, for a grand total of 1,824,494 which is reduced by the
Evacuation Rate percentages for each Zone shown in Table IIIB-1 above?
Answer: No
Question 12 Since tourist or transient units do not appear in Tables ES-4 and ES-5 "Vulnerable
Population...," it is unclear if tourists are included in clearance -time calculations.
I understand that for Monroe County they are not, but are tourists included in
Miami -Dade and Broward County evacuations, and if they are, where are the
associated numbers shown?
Answer: Volume IV-11 contains the evacuating populations in the published studies. Tourists
are not counted in the vulnerable population because this table focuses on the vulnerable resident
population but tourists are included in the evacuating population as part of the modeling. Both
Miami -Dade and Broward order "in -county" evacuations population, this would direct
vulnerable populations to other parts of the county based on the direction of the emergency
management director. The table simply identifies the number of vulnerable residents based on
the storm category.
Question 13 With regard to the February 8 Draft MOU, assumption II b states "The Monroe
County evacuation stream is the only traffic being considered by this planning
model." Does this mean that Miami-Dade's traffic is not considered? The first
paragraph of the MOU states that we will include "regional considerations." If
E
that does not mean inclusion of Miami-Dade's traffic, how are regional
considerations included?
Answer: If the Work Group's desire is to use the regional evacuation, then that will be reflected
in the MOU.
Question 14 Draft MOU, assumption II d. "The Evacuation Level being modeled is for a
Level C /Category 3 storm event." What is the basis for this assumption?
Answer: This is something that the Work Group will decide
Question 15 Draft MOU: Florida Statute Section 380.0052(9)(a)(2) states, "[maintain]... a
hurricane evacuation clearance time for permanent residents of no more than 24
hours." Since mobile home owners are permanent residents, albeit possibly in
less -substantial dwellings, why aren't they included in the clearance time
calculations?
Answer: When this policy was adopted, a decision was made to evacuate the mobile home
residents early. So the studies have reflected that policy choice. These meetings and the MOU
process are an opportunity for the local governments to change the policies that are
inappropriate. The policies predated the Statewide Regional Evacuation Study Program.
Question 16 At our January meeting, we learned that no mainland traffic from people entering
the Keys to secure second homes is included in our clearance -time calculation.
According to 2010 Census data and the 2006-10 American Community Survey,
more than 1/3 of Keys' non -tourist dwelling units were considered vacant. Many
of those are second homes that will be tended by mainland residents when a
hurricane threatens. How can that additional traffic best be accounted for?
Answer: We are in the process of looking at the available data sets to attempt to come up with a
reliable number to account for that additional traffic. Mayte Santamaria from Monroe County
has provided us with data sets. Monroe County has also requested a scenario which would place
the entire vacant site built units into the transient — essentially counting them as vacation rentals.
This would present a worst case scenario. A question was raised as to whether there's been any
attempt to quantify the number of owners of second homes that would be coming back into the
county in order to ready their home for a storm. The County is attempting to study the property
appraiser's data base to determine how many non -homesteaded properties have owners with
10
Miami -Dade or Broward addresses. Jeff Alexander stated that the model does account for
background traffic and that persons coming into the County to attend to homes or boats are
included in the background traffic. Jeff said that you would need to run a sensitivity analysis
against the calculations that we've already made to determine whether you are impacting the
assumptions that have already been made for background traffic behavior above and beyond
what's already accounted for in the model. Rebecca Jetton explained that the scenarios are
hypotheticals that are tools to be used in the Work Group's decision making.
Barbara Powell stated that questions 17, 18 and 19 were answered by an earlier presentation by
Mr. Steve McBride of Naval Air Station Key West.
Question 20 How were the roadway infrastructure improvements to AIA and N. Roosevelt
Blvd. (scheduled for 2012-2015) incorporated into the modeling efforts? What are
the anticipated effects?
Answer: Ken Jeffries of the Florida Department of Transportation answered by stating that the
improvements are not a capacity project. The question was rephrased to ask how the model
accounts for the time that the road will be out of service for construction? The concern is that
the construction would be for two years. Discussion took place among the members as to
whether a 10 or 20 year allocation should be based on a reduction in evacuation capacity for a 2
year transportation project. General consensus was to not place this scenario in the priority list.
Question 21 What is the feasibility for other net, new allocations to the City of Key West?
Answer: Allocations for all local governments will be decided based upon the outcome of these
meetings.
Question 22 Can copies of SLOSH Models be provided for the City of Key West?
Answer: The SLOSH model is available on the South Florida Regional Planning Council's
website. There is a link to their website from the DEO website.
Question 23 How do the proposed amendments to the "Administrative Code" correlate with
existing Operational Plans?
• LMS-2010;
• CEMP and associated hazard annexes;
lei
• County;
• Municipality;
Answer: The Administrative Code referred to in the question is the set of Rules 28-18, 28-19
and 28-20 Florida Administrative Code recently adopted by the Administration Commission
which direct the activities of this Work Group. David Halstead stated that it presents an
opportunity to update the LMS and CEMP. Short of raising, widening or otherwise enhancing
the transportation system out the Keys there is very little mitigation, other than education,
available to the Keys. Once the MOU is in place, the Division of Emergency Management
would expect to see it reflected in the LMS and CEMP.
Question 24 As the evacuation/clearance times are established, is there a proposed method of
enforcement, for administration and/or operational plans?
Answer: The method of enforcement would be the same that is currently in place by the
Emergency Management Director. Rebecca Jetton added that there is an opportunity to allow
the local governments to pass a code enforcement ordinance regarding transient evacuation that
would carry some penalty.
Question 25 Will the state provide indemnity for jurisdictions, and their representatives, when
operational plans are activated?
Answer: David Halstead stated that during this process we will be under a Governor's
Executive Order. Chapter 252 of the Florida Statutes gives the Governor and the local
governments a wide -range of authority. The actions and orders that are given, provided they are
lawful and meet the common sense test, would authorize the local governments to do what is
needed. As far as indemnity, we have not been sued and it would be difficult for a court to look
at what is done during a declared state of emergency. Richard Shine concurred with David
Halstead's response.
Question 26 Is it possible for the State to include Monroe County and municipalities in future
maps and presentations, beyond the 106th mile marker?
Answer: David Halstead stated that the LMS and CEMP should reflect the new data and the
terms of the MOU should be taken into consideration for the operational plans, less so for the
mitigation plans.
A question was asked about the ability to use reverse 911 or reverse number lookup to push
evacuation information out to residents/tourists. David Halstead noted that many people no
longer have traditional land lines and he is working with Craig Fugate at the Federal Emergency
12
Management Agency to use available cell phone technology to push evacuation information out
without a registration process. A system that relies on registration would likely not have a high
enough participation rate to be useful. Other tools in the process are evacuation apps for iPhones
and Androids that provide information on evacuations and shelters.
Tyson Smith had stated that the MOU. We're trying to make certain assumptions to make
planning policies. The MOU recognizes the assumptions about clearance times but doesn't bind
the emergency management director and staff who have to make calls on the ground.
Is it possible to identify areas in the State Regional Evacuation model that are Monroe County
specific? Barbara Powell responded by stating that there are numerous places in the model that
are Monroe County specific, such as the behavioral study, scenarios run for Monroe — some with
regional considerations (with Miami -Dade and Broward) and some were Monroe County only.
It is more than 3,000 pages — we can pull the Monroe specific and post them to the website.
A presentation was made by the Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT), District 6 —
Aileen Boucle, Joaquin Vargus, Ken Jeffries and Brian Wolshon, a professor of Civil
Engineering Louisiana State University. Ms. Boucle explained FDOT's role as support staff for
the Work Group and to provide information regarding the upcoming FDOT 5-year work plan.
Dr. Wolshon gave a presentation on the maximum sustainable evacuation flow rates for US 1.
Dr. Wolshon explained that research shows that flow rates recorded during evacuations were
lower than those expected from Highway Capacity Manual calculation methods. Evacuation
traffic flows consistently peak at rates below HCM "capacity." Flow further decreases to a level
that is sustained for 6 to 8 hours or more. These flow rates are also consistent with the highest
flow rates recorded during recent evacuations of the Keys and the other peak traffic periods.
These flow rates may further be decreased by other inevitable congestion within the network as
well as operations at night and under adverse weather conditions. Use of higher than these
sustainable flow rates will also likely result in clearance times that are not realistically
achievable.
Dr. Wolshon's presentation confirmed that traffic counter data is consistent with findings of
behavioral research that suggests that the majority of evacuees travel during daylight hours,
regardless of when an evacuation order is issued. Typically, traffic volumes increase steadily
from 6:00 am to a peak in the early to mid afternoon. After a drop to a sustainable rate of flow,
high travel demand continues into the mid- to late -evening, when volumes drop significantly
around 10:00pm to 11:OOpm and remains low during the overnight hours.
Joaquin Vargus provided information on the current maximum sustainable evacuation traffic
flow rates as used in the hurricane evacuation model which range from 900 to 1200 vehicles per
hour. Mr. Vargus provided a brief history of the roadway improvements in the Florida Keys. He
stated that the results of the 2001 Florida Keys Hurricane Evacuation was that the 2001 roadway
network was not capable of safely evacuating the Florida keys and that it requires additional
13
hurricane evacuation capacity. A map was shown that demonstrated there are few cars
evacuating in the lower keys, 12,289 vehicles at Mile Marker 8 and building to 42,287 vehicles
evacuating through Mile Marker 106. Mr. Vargus stated that the AIA improvements should not
have a significant effect on hurricane evacuation. Mr. Vargus provided a map that showed the
completed and funded projects. He also provided the projects in FDOT's five-year work plan.
Mr. Vargus reviewed the maps with the recommended flow rates and stated that the highest flow
rates are found on the 18-Mile Stretch and a segment below Marathon around Mile Marker 40.
The segments with the lowest flow rates are the four -lane segments in Key West and Stock
Island, the four lane segment around Mile Marker 50 in Marathon and the four lane segment
from Mile Marker 90 to 106 in Key Largo.
Commissioner Murphy asked for clarification that the lowest flow rates were on the four lane
segments. Mr. Vargus confirmed and reminded the Work Group that these are "per lane" figures.
Aileen Boucle presented information regarding the 10' emergency evacuation shoulder
enhancement projects. Monroe County BOCC passed resolution 475-2008 supporting a
northbound shoulder width no greater than 4 feet from Mile Marker 93 to Mile Marker 106. The
FDOT plans that were developed contained plans with and without the 10' shoulder. FDOT
awaits the recommendations of the Work Group and their recommendation. The City
Commission of Key West passed resolution 08-13 supporting FDOT'S improvements from Mile
Marker 93 to Mile Marker 106 for 10 foot shoulders.
Both behavioral analysis and traffic counter data in the Florida Keys and throughout the state
were utilized to conclude that people prefer to evacuate during daylight hours. The data is
included in the Statewide Regional Evacuation Study Program (SRESP). A question was asked
if this data has been correlated to the times that evacuation orders were given and Dr. Wolshon
responded that it had not. However, the time of the evacuation order is shown on the graphs that
are in the SRESP. He stated that the data is so consistent that you can see the pattern of
evacuation is during daylight hours. As a follow-up, a question was asked if any of the
improvements such as turn lanes, changing traffic lights to flashing, etc. were used to evaluate
the flow rates. Mr. Vargus stated that yes they were taken into consideration and simulation
work was performed that evaluated effectiveness of changing the traffic signals to flashing and it
validated the data that was used in the SRESP. A question was asked regarding the reasoning
behind Miller Model's method of evacuation of hotel units. Mr. Vargus verified that "For the
purposes of this study, (the Miller model) traffic generated by hotels and other tourist units were
included in determining clearance time rather than discounted because they will be required to
evacuate early. According to the Director of Emergency Management Operations for Monroe
County and others, not all hurricanes approaching the Keys will be considerate enough to
provide ample time for advance tourist evacuation."
[L'
A question was asked about whether or not evacuation through the airport (increased flights) was
taken into account when determining the number of cars that evacuated from the Keys. Richard
Ogburn responded by saying that there were no adjustments made for the assumption that people
would evacuate by means other than a vehicle on the highway. Another question was asked as to
how the number of 40,000 vehicles was determined. Dick Ogburn stated that it is a calculation
based on the total number of dwelling units (separating site -built, mobile homes), for each of
those we have an estimate of the number of people and the number of vehicles that are available
for each type of unit. The vehicle usage rate is then calculated for occupied dwelling units. For
example a household that has 3 vehicles may only evacuate with one of them. Commissioner
Teri Johnston expressed concern that the number of vehicles shown for Key West was high and
many households in Key West (10%) do not have cars. The numbers in FDOT's presentation
were from the 2001 Study which used 1990 Census data. The SRESP vehicle numbers were
based on 2000 Census data brought current with building permit data.
Councilman Don Achenberg noted that in the discussion regarding the 10' wide evacuation
shoulders there was no mention of what happens when you squeeze two lanes in to one on the
bridges and still maintain a flow rate. Joaquin Vargus answered by stating that all the bridges
from Marathon north have shoulders on both sides and there is sufficient room on those bridges
to allow for two lanes of evacuating traffic and a southbound lane if the lanes are delineated.
There was a discussion regarding the constriction that occurs around the 7-Mile Bridge. Mayor
Pete Worthington asked if there had been any consideration of mass transit to the shelter at FIU.
Aileen Boucle responded by stating no consideration has been made up to this point, but FDOT
can research the feasibility if that's the recommendations of the Work Group. Mayor
Worthington asked if the flow rates have been confirmed using traffic counts from actual events.
Mr. Vargus confirmed that they were utilized. A question was asked about where the four traffic
counters in the Keys were located. Mr. Vargus stated that they were located at Mile Marker 4,
Mile Marker 106, one in Marathon and one in Big Pine Key. Aileen concluded the FDOT
presentation by stating that the presentation will be posted on the DEO website and the chart
with the maximum sustainable flow rates is contained with the presentation.
Bob Shillinger of the Monroe County Attorney's Office gave a presentation on Property Rights
and Hurricane Evacuation. He began by covering "takings law" and their foundation in both the
US and Florida constitution. He explained that there are different types of takings claims,
• a direct taking which is when the government takes your property for some public
purpose, i.e., school, park, etc.
• inverse condemnation — the government's regulation has affect the taking all use of the
property
• Bert J. Harris Act which is a variant on the inverse condemnation
He stated that the Supreme Court has defined a taking by, "Where a government agency, by its
conduct or activities, has effectively taken private property without a formal exercise of the
power of eminent domain ...." There are five basic types of inverse condemnation: facial
taking, temporary taking, as applied taking, exaction, and physical occupation.
Facial and as applied takings are the two most applicable for hurricane evacuation. A facial
taking is generally defined as mere enactment of regulation precludes all development of
property and owner is deprived of all reasonable economic use of property and it's clear from the
text of the regulation. The claim would immediately ripen and the claim would run for four
years until the statute of limitations is reached. An example of a facial taking would be: no more
ROGO units, no other changes.
A temporary taking is when there is a moratorium. There is no bright -line rule for duration.In the
Tahoe -Sierra case the Supreme Court held that a 32-month planning moratorium was not a
temporary taking. It has to be a complete prohibition on development. If you have other uses of
the property, it is not a taking. The statute of limitations starts to run when the moratorium is
lifted.
"As applied" takings claims are ones most used in the Keys. An as "applied taking" occurs when
the application of a regulation to property denies substantially all reasonable economic use. The
claim requires at least one denial of a meaningful building permit application. There are the
Penn Central factors which require a reasonable investment backed expectation as well as the
economic impact on claimant. The statute of limitations runs from a final denial of that
meaningful application.
Economic Impact factor: requires evidence on the change in fair market value (FMV) of the
property caused by the regulatory imposition. For example the comparison of
a) FMV of the property with the complained of regulation as of alleged date of taking and
b) FMV of the property without the complained of regulation as of same date.
Owner may be denied highest and best use of property. For example, remaining "ROGO lot"
value (the value of a lot for donation to increase points in ROGO) of vacant property has
precluded finding of takings.
An exaction is a restriction on using private property for public benefit. There are two question
to ask to determine whether it's unconstitutional. 1) Is there an essential nexus between
legitimate state interest and permit condition? 2) Is the permit condition proportional to projected
impact of the proposed development? In the context of hurricane evacuation, an example of an
exaction would be conditioning new ROGOs on purchasing too many additional lots. It would
need to be need to be proportional to impact of development.
I,
A physical occupation taking usually occurs during temporary and emergency situations and it is
occupation without prior permission. A classic example is flooding of fields to handle storm
water. In the context of hurricanes examples include: evacuation or return holding areas,
temporary shelters and command posts, post disaster supply depot, debris collection and
processing sites.
The typical defense in takings cases include: there is no taking, statute of limitations, and third
party liability. A no taking defense is made when it's proven that there are:
• Other economically viable uses
• No reasonable investment backed expectations
• Owner opting not to recoup initial investment in face of increasing regulatory limitations
• Nuisance
• Development expectations not defeated by government regulation
Nuisances are not compensable takings. Nuisances include those uses of property that are threats
to public harm and welfare. Is the threat to public safety once there is no ability to safely
evacuate the County in event of a hurricane a nuisance? Mr. Shillinger stated he could find no
case related to hurricanes. Most cases point to nuisance that are specific to a property.
Statute of Limitations runs four years from the date of accrual. Laches is a similar type of claim
to that of the statute of limitation when you talking about equitable claims, but there is no set
time limit. A no taking defense is made when it's proven that the claimant has waited too long.
• A ripeness defense is use when it can be proven that there has been:
• No meaningful permit application with governmental entity being sued
• A failure to apply for permits from other governmental entities that could oppose
development
• A failure to Exhaust Administrative Remedies, such as the Beneficial Use Determination
(BUD Process) or the Administrative Relief process
A third party liability defense demonstrates that there is a superior sovereign responsible, such as
state or federal governments. It is also used when a non -governmental agency such as a home
owners association prevents the use of the property.
There are potentially two trials in a takings claim. The first phase is the liability phase which
determines whether there has been a taking. This is done by means of a bench trial before a
Circuit Court Judge and only the landowner has the right to appeal if he loses. The second phase
is the damages phase which determines how much is owed. This is determined by a 12 person
jury and can be appealed by either side.
ON
A Bert J. Harris Act claims is a statutory remedy adopted in 1995. It applies when a government
action "inordinately burdens" an existing use or a vested right to a future use. It excludes
temporary takings less than 1 year and enforcement of federal regulations. In these cases there is
often an opportunity to settle by modifying regulation. The orders on liability are immediately
appealable. The Bert J. Harris Act is modifiable by the legislature and governor.
On the question of build -out, there are approximately 8,800 parcels of privately owned property
in the unincorporated area of Monroe County. Under the current rule there are 197 County
ROGO allocations per year. 197 ROGOs + number of lots purchased = number of potential
takings cases resolved each year. The trend in land acquisition shows that since 1994,
government agencies (federal, state and local) bought 340 parcels per year. In the last 5 years,
government agencies bought 156 parcels per year and in the last 3 years government agencies
bought 67 parcels per year. At the current rate this leaves 33 years of ROGO. Reducing the
ROGO rate alone will not solve the problem. The current rate (197 ROGOs + 67 acquired) x 5
years = 1,320 this would leave 7,480 lots to purchase. A 50% in the annual allocationreduction
leaves 7,140 lots left to purchase and a 25% reduction leaves 6,480 lots to purchase. If you use
the strategy of land acquisition — you must have a willing seller. If you apply the current rate of
ROGO and 100 purchases a year for 5 years there are 7,315 lots to purchase. Reduce it by 50%
and it leaves 6,810 lots to purchase. Reduce it by 25% and it leaves 5,820 lots left to purchase.
In order to get to zero lots at the end of a 5, 10 or 20 year period, you would need to purchase
1563, 781 and 391 lots per year respectively. Some options to consider as we approach a 24 hour
evacuation time are to: slow rate of growth, increase purchases, reward land dedications and lot
aggregations in the building permit allocation system, allow for the transfer of ROGO rights or
encourage other uses that don't impact hurricane evacuation. Takings law is case law driven
case law changes over time — what may be a taking today may not be a taking tomorrow.
Commissioner Carruthers asked how many of the 8800 lots are in ROGO and nearing ripeness.
Christine Hurley stated that she did not have the figure but that approximately 4,000 parcels are
designated Tier III. Mr. Shillinger clarified that Tier III lots are parcels where the County
wanted to encourage development. A question from the audience regarding what the cost of land
acquisition in the last 3 years. Mr. Shillinger responded by stating that the land authority
purchases land at 1986 values. Most lots are purchased at approximately 10,000-20,000. The
state makes purchases at fair market value which is far greater than the land authority. Mr.
Shillinger clarified that the 8,800 lots and the allocations used in his presentation were just
unincorporated Monroe County and included commercial lots. Ms. Jetton pointed out that
Marathon just won a takings case (Bamboo Key) and asked about the cost of defending takings
cases. Mayor Worthington did not have the figures available for that case but said that they
settled the Boot Key Island and it cost $3 million plus attorney's fees of $275,000. Mr.
Shillinger said that depending on the case they have spent six and sometime seven figures
defending a takings claim. A typical expense for defending a takings claim for a single family
home/single family lot is around $50,000 to $100,000 if you're paying for outside counsel,
18
property appraisals and if you lose the legal fees for the plaintiff. The question was asked as to
why isn't it cheaper just to buy the lot? Mr. Shillinger explained that you have to have a willing
seller. Don Craig asked if the transient moratorium had gone long enough to establish that it was
a taking. Mr. Shillinger stated that the recent case in which that was alleged, The Good case,
could not overcome the fact that the owner still had residential use on the property. The
moratorium doesn't prohibit all development —just transient development.
Rebecca Jetton reviewed the memorandum of understanding (MOU). Ms. Jetton directed the
participants to page three of the MOU. She then asked those present to participate in a "straw
poll" to gauge the positions relative to the variables/terms contained in the MOU. The decisions
made must be legally defensible. The first variable to decide on is the participation rate. The
occupancy rate of both hotels and site -built residential is another variable. The previous
modeling runs have used hotel occupancy of 85%. As a result of these meetings DEO has been
asked to update the model using data from Smith Travel regarding actual hotel occupancy. Under
assumptions, DEO chose a 12 hour response curve as recommended by the Division of
Emergency Management. We will also need to decide whether we will use a Monroe only
evacuation run or a regional run that includes Broward and Miami -Dade. We have already
adopted into the Florida Administrative Code that the termination point for evacuation is the
Turnpike at Florida City rather than the shelter at FIU. Only 3% use the shelter. Another MOU
decision is what level of storm are we modeling for — a Category 3, 4 or 5. The road capacity
has already been decided by the Florida Department of Transportation. Ms. Jetton reviewed the
"straw poll". Don Craig asked if the Department is saying that Key West is entitled to 90
allocations. Ms. Jetton stated that 90 is what Key West originally had and that Key West is
entitled to an allocation which will be decided as part of this process. Don Craig asked if the
Smith Travel numbers were during a particular season. Ms. Jetton stated that they were
annualized numbers.
John Hammerstrom asked to make a case for public safety before the poll is taken. He began by
stating that there are 66,000 dwelling units in the Florida Keys and we're eliminating roughly a
third of those by not counting the tourists and the mobile home dwellers, so you're down to
44,000. Another third will be eliminated because they're not occupied. He continued by reading
quotes from James Franklin which spoke to the inability of the weather service to predict rapid
intensification of storms or storm structure or size (which determines surge). The comprehensive
plan policy is based on the ability to predict where and when tropical storm force winds will
arrive but we're basing the need to evacuate on storm surge. The 2012 SRESP made 50 different
scenario of those 50, 42 of them exceeded 24 hours. There were no scenarios in the Category 4
or 5 that were under the 24 hours. Four of the scenarios that generated a time of less than 24
hours were for a Category 1 hurricane. The draft MOU chose scenario 8A — the one clearance
time that was the least of the 50. Using the best case is statistically invalid, intellectually
dishonest and dangerous. The early study made the clear statement that tourist should be
included in the evacuation because we will not always have the luxury of 48 hours. Mr.
II'
Hammerstrom's presentation continued by stating that whenever the 24 hour limit has been
reached in the past, the rules were changed. He concluded his remarks with stating that if this
group doesn't determine that we've reached build -out, no group ever will.
A question was asked how timeshares were handled in the model. Transients are only those that
are registered through Department of Business and Professional Regulation (DBPR). The
Census Bureau has inventoried approximately 52,000 to 53,000 site -built units. Of the 13,000 to
14,000 identified as transient units by DBPR about half of those may overlap with the units
identified vacant dwelling units by the Census Bureau. So simply adding the units may not
present an accurate total. Mr. Hammerstrom stated that his point was that for the built units we
are discounting a substantial percentage for participation rate, occupancy and earlier evacuation.
Denise Worling who worked as a Census taker spoke briefly about how the Census counts
vacancy. She began by stating that the Census count the structure where you are residing as
occupied. If you have a seasonal home that may be occupied eleven months out of the year — the
Census considers these vacant -occupied occasionally. Unless there is a separate address for a
legal or illegal apartment, duplex, etc. those units were counted as a single structure.
Homesteading the property has no effect on the Census count. Commissioner Carruthers asked
for clarity about how multi -family housing was counted. Ms. Worling responded by stating that
if the units within the multi -family had separate addresses then they were counted.
Christine Hurley stated that Monroe County had requested scenarios that included 30% of the
vacant units be placed on the transient side of the evacuation phase. Mr. Hammerstrom stated
his concern that if we do not issue any new permits but the vacant units become occupied with
permanent residents we will be over the 24 hour evacuation time. Jodi Weinhoffer stated that the
occupancy rates in the summer are quite low and tourists leave well before the 48 hour time -
frame.
Barbara Powell announced that the next scheduled meeting may be postponed until the end of
April. The model is being updated to reflect the most recent Census data and the scenarios will
not be ready by the next scheduled meeting.
The consensus exercise was performed and after a short break the meeting concluded with public
comments.
20
Hurricane Evacuation Clearance Workshop — Meeting 3
April 30, 2012 Minutes
loam — 6:00pm
Welcome and Opening Remarks
Barbara Powell announced changes to the Agenda and the Work Group approved the previous
meeting minutes. Mrs. Powell also announced that the presentation on Sunshine Law will occur
later in the meeting.
Commissioner Sylvia Murphy welcomed the group.
Economic Impact on Early Evacuation
Andy Newman with the Florida Keys Tourism Development Council (TDC) provided a
presentation on the economic impacts of early hurricane evacuation. Mr. Newman provided
information on the role of the TDC in emergency preparedness. Mr. Newman presented
information regarding the economic impact of hurricane evacuation, stating it cost $3 million per
midweek day and $8 million per weekend day — more per holiday weekend or special event day.
Mr. Newman emphasized that the purpose of the TDC in coordinating hotel evacuation is to
protect lives and the Florida Keys' economy. Mr. Newman showed the Work Group and
audience the TDC's website and the information it provides on evacuation orders, weather, and
frequently asked questions. Mr. Newman stated that it can take anywhere from a few days to 6
weeks to restart tourism when a storm hits the Keys depending on the media coverage. The TDC
works with the media to ensure that if an area of the Keys is struck by a hurricane, that there is
equal emphasis on the non -impacted areas that are still open for business. Mr. Newman spoke to
the proactive approach the TDC takes in ensuring tourists evacuate.
There were questions regarding evacuation via airlines. Mr. Newman stated that the flights are
generally full and when flights are cancelled due to the approaching storm, the bus lines are
utilized.
Scenario Presentation
Barbara Powell with the Department of Economic Opportunity presented the results of several
hurricane evacuation scenarios that included requests from the Work Group members. Mrs.
Powell began her presentation by describing the data that has been updated in the Transportation
Interface for Modeling Evacuations, or TIME Model which is the hurricane evacuation model
developed for the State of Florida.
Assumptions Used in the Scenarios Presented
Tourist Units
• Total Tourist Units: 13,665
• Average Vehicle Per Unit: 1.1
• Average Occupancy Rate Range: *67.50 — 90.50% (July) *These ranges are provided for
a frame of reference. Each Traffic Evacuation Zone contains the specific occupancy
provided by Smith Travel.
• July represents the highest hotel occupancy rates.
• Other months were used with different occupancy rates.
Mobile Home Units
• Total Mobile Home Units: 8,134
• Average Vehicle Per Unit:.62 — 2.0
• Average Occupancy Rate Range: *2.86—100.00%
• Each Traffic Evacuation Zone contains the specific occupancy provided by the 2010
census data.
*These ranges are provided as a frame of reference only. The number of vehicles owned is
derived from the census block information. The percent of vehicles that will be driven
during a hurricane evacuation was determined by the Behavioral Surveys utilized in the
statewide hurricane studies.
Site -Built Units
• Total Site -Built Units: 44,630
• Average Vehicle Per Unit:.46 — 2.13
• Average Occupancy Rate Range: *32.23 — 92.61 %
• Each Traffic Evacuation Zone contains the specific occupancy provided by the 2010
census data.
*These ranges are provided as a frame of reference only. The number of vehicles owned is
derived from the census block information. The percent of vehicles that will be driven
during a hurricane evacuation was determined by the Behavioral Surveys utilized in the
statewide hurricane studies.
Special Populations
• Naval Air Station Key West — Boca Chica — 2,025 vehicles
• Florida Keys Community College— Blue Lagoon Residence Hall— 100 vehicles
Mrs. Powell explained that all scenarios produced reflect participation rates (70%, 80%, and
90%) based on a Category 3-5 storm event and Level C-E surge event. The results presented
below are based upon Category 5 storm event with 90% participation rate, a 12-hour response
curve, 2010 US Census and 2006-2010 American Community Survey data. When additional
units are projected, such as Scenario 2 where 3,540 units are being added, that number (3,540)
has not been reduced by the occupancy rate and the participation rate.
Phase 2 Evacuation Scenarios (Assumes all hotels and mobile homes evacuated in phase 1)
Scenario 1: The evacuation of 28,053 occupied units (of the 44,630 site -built units) had an
evacuation clearance time of 23 hours.
Scenario 2: The evacuation of 28,053 occupied units (of the existing 44,630 site -built units)
with an additional 3,540 units had an evacuation time of 24 hours. This scenario includes a full
allocation to each local government for ten years.
Scenario 3: The evacuation of 28,053 occupied units (of the existing 44,630 units) with 1,780
additional units had an evacuation clearance time of 23 hours and 30 minutes. This represents a
decrease in allocation of 50%.
Scenario 4: The evacuation of 28,053 occupied units (of the existing 44,630 site -built units) and
an additional 2,660 units had an evacuation clearance time of 23 hours and 30 minutes. This
represents a 25% reduction in allocation.
Scenario 5: The evacuation of 28,053 occupied units (of the existing 44,630 site -built units)
with an additional 3,540 units and the 4,576 occupied mobile home units (of the existing 8,134
mobile home units) had an evacuation clearance time of 27 hours.
Mrs. Powell presented data that indicates over the past 20 years there has been a conversion of
mobile home units to site -built units at a rate of 30.6% since 1990. She explained that using a
linear projection, staff expects 1,248 mobile home units to convert to site -built units during the
next 10 years. Staff suggested that the group monitor this conversion factor as the American
Community Survey for Monroe County is released.
Scenarios 6: The evacuation of 28,053 occupied units (of the existing 44,630 site -built units)
and 3,540 projected units, and a conversion of 1,248 mobile homes to site -built units resulted in
a evacuation clearance time of 24 hours and 30 minutes.
Scenario 7: The evacuation of the 28,053 occupied units (of the existing 44,630 site -built units),
an additional 1,780 units), with a conversion of 1,248 mobile homes to site -built units had an
evacuation clearance time of 24 hours.
Scenario 8: The evacuation of 28,053 occupied units (of the existing 44,630 site -built units) and
an additional 2,660 units, a conversion of 1,248 mobile homes to site -built units had an
evacuation clearance time of 24 hours.
Scenarios 9-13 are on the next page
Scenario 14: The evacuation of 28,053 occupied units (of the existing 44,630 site -built units)
plus 1,780 units and the 4,576 occupied mobile home units (of the existing 8,134 mobile homes
had an evacuation clearance time of 26 hours and 30 minutes.
Scenario 15: The evacuation of the 28,053 units (of the 44,630 site -built units) plus 2,660 units,
and the existing 4,576 occupied mobile homes (of the 8,134 mobile home units) had an
evacuation clearance time of 26 hours and 30 minutes.
Scenario 16: The evacuation of the 28,053 occupied units (of the existing 44,630 site -built units)
plus 11,287 occupied tourist units (of the existing 13,666 tourist units) plus 4,576 occupied
mobile homes (of the existing 8,134 mobile home units), and 2,025 vehicles leaving from Naval
Air Station Key West had an evacuation clearance time of 35 hours and 30 minutes.
Scenario 17: The evacuation of the 11,287 tourist units (of the existing 13,665 tourist units) and
2,025 vehicles from Naval Air Station Key West had an evacuation clearance time of 14 hours
and 30 minutes. It was assumed that mobile home units did not participate in the evacuation.
Scenario 18: The evacuation of 28,053 occupied (of the 44,630 site -built) and 4,578 occupied
mobile homes (of the 8,134 mobile home units)with an additional 500 units resulted in an
evacuation time of 26 hours.
Scenario 19: The evacuation of 28,053 occupied units (of the 44,630 site -built) plus 4,578
occupied mobile homes (of the 8,134 mobile home units)with an additional 1,000 units resulted
in an evacuation time of 26 hours.
Scenario 20: The evacuation of 28,053 occupied (of the 44,630 site -built) and 4,578 occupied
mobile homes (of the 8,134 mobile home units) with an additional 1,500 units resulted in an
evacuation time of 26 hours.
Scenario 21: The evacuation of 28,053 occupied (of the 44,630 site -built) and 4,578 occupied
mobile homes (of the 8,134 mobile home units) with an additional 2,000 units resulted in an
evacuation time of 26 hours.
Scenario 22: The evacuation of 28,053 occupied (of the 44,630 site -built) and 4,578 occupied
mobile homes (of the 8,134 mobile home units) with an additional 2,500 units resulted in an
evacuation time of 26 hours and 30 minutes.
Scenario 23: The evacuation of 28,053 occupied (of the 44,630 site -built) and 4,578 occupied
mobile homes (of the 8,134 mobile home units) with an additional 3,0000 units resulted in an
evacuation time of 27 hours.
Scenario 24: The evacuation of 28,053 occupied units (of the 44,630 site -built units) 4,578
occupied mobile home units of the existing 8,134 mobile home units, and an additional 11,282
site -built units resulted in a clearance time of 30 hours and 30 minutes.
Scenario 25: The evacuation of 28,053 occupied units (of the existing 44,630 site -built units)
and 4,578 occupied mobile homes (of the existing 8,134 mobile home units) had an evacuation
clearance time of 25 hours and 30 minutes.
Phase 1 Evacuation Scenarios (Hotels, vacation rental, military, institutional, special needs)
When additional units are projected, such as Scenario 9 where 100 additional hotel units are
being added, that number (100) has not been reduced by the occupancy rate.
Scenarios 9: The evacuation of 11,287 occupied hotel units (of the 13,665 units), plus 100
additional hotel units, plus 4,576 occupied mobile homes (of the 8,134 mobile homes), plus
military resulted in an evacuation time of 16 hours and 30 minutes. July occupancy
Scenario 10: The evacuation of 8,578 occupied hotel units of the 13,665 units), plus 100
additional hotel units, plus 4,576 occupied mobile homes (of the 8,134 mobile homes), plus
military resulted in an evacuation time of 15 hours and 30 minutes. October Occupancy
Scenario 11: The evacuation of 10,034 occupied hotel units (of the 13,665 units), plus 100
additional hotel units, plus 4,576 occupied mobile homes (of the 8,134 mobile homes), plus
military resulted in an evacuation time of 16 hours and 30 minutes. November occupancy
Scenarios 12: The evacuation of 9,540 occupied hotel units (of the 13,665 hotel units), plus 100
additional hotel units, plus 4,576 occupied mobile homes (of the 8,134 mobile homes), plus
military resulted in an evacuation time of 15 hours and 30 minutes. June —October average
occupancy
Scenarios 13: The evacuation of 11,287 occupied hotel units (of the 13,665 units, plus 100
additional hotel units, plus 4,576 occupied mobile homes (of the 8,134 mobile homes), plus
military, with an additional 215 hotel units in Key West resulted in an evacuation time of 16
hours and 30 minutes. July occupancy
The highest occupancy rate for tourist units, based upon Smith Travel Research's Historic Trend
Report, during the hurricane season is the month of July. Comments were received from the
public expressing concern about the high occurrence of hurricanes in September and the
occupancy of units during the Labor Day weekend. Staff pointed out that, based upon Smith
Travel, using monthly averages; the occupancy rate for September is lower than the July monthly
average.
Regional Evacuation Scenario
Scenario 26: The concurrent evacuations of Miami -Dade, Broward Counties with Monroe with
existing 28,063 occupied units (of the 44,630 site -built units), plusl,780 site -built units (5 year
allocation) and conversion of 622 mobile home units to site -built units, as well as the 2015
population for Miami -Dade and Broward Counties had a evacuation clearance time of 24 hours.
Ms. Jeannine Kelsick with the Department of Economic Opportunity presented information on
the how the TIME Model uses the US Census and American Community Survey. She described
the Florida Keys are broken up into 40 Traffic Evacuation Zones, or TEZs, of which each are
comprised of block group data from the US Census and American Community Survey. Ms.
Kelsick stressed the point that no one TEZ is the same and that they are different, reflecting the
specific characteristics and unit totals inherent in their location.
In regards to the regional evacuation scenario results, Irene Toner, Monroe County's Emergency
Management Director, stated that when the National Hurricane Center indicated that if there was
a need for a simultaneous evacuation for all three counties that she would contact Miami -Dade
and Broward Counties to identify the date and time that they would issue the order and would
provide an earlier evacuation order for Monroe County.
There was also discussion regarding the different types of clearance times that can be produced:
out -of -county, to -shelter, in -county and regional. Each evacuation scenario conducted provides
results for each of these clearance time types. There was considerable debate regarding whether
the Keys should use the out -of -county evacuation time or the regional time. Richard Ogburn,
South Florida Regional Planning Council's Director of Research, gave the following definition:
Regional Clearance Time: The time necessary to safely evacuate vulnerable residents and
visitors to a "point of safety "within the (RPC) region based on a specific hazard, behavioral
assumptions and evacuation scenario. Calculated from the point in time when the evacuation
order is given to the point in time when the last vehicle assigned an external destination exits the
region. Using this definition, the scenarios would consider the evacuation time to include
clearing the last evacuating car from Broward County for not just Monroe County but for all
evacuating counties in an evacuation scenario.
There was discussion regarding the term "Regional Considerations" and how the term found in
the Florida Administrative Code Rules and the Administration Commission's 30-Day Report
could be defined. Section 163.3178(9)(a)1., Florida Statutes, provides that a comprehensive
plan amendment would be found in compliance with state laws regarding hurricane evacuation
based upon the "adopted level of service for out -of -county hurricane evacuation". Additionally,
Section 163.3178(9)(b), Florida Statutes, provides that evacuation time, if not adopted by July 1,
2008, would be based on an "out -of -county hurricane evacuation". Rebecca Jetton reminded the
group that Monroe County has already adopted a 24 hour out of county hurricane evacuation
time.
Sunshine Law
Bob Shillinger, Monroe County's Chief Assistant County Attorney, presented on the Sunshine
Law and its applicability to the Work Group. He used an example of a recent email exchange
amongst Group members. Though the email exchange only provided conflicting views on an
issue that was to come before the Group, the reply to the initial email could be considered a
violation if both authors were voting members of the group. Mr. Shillinger explained that by
revealing the action that had occurred and by providing all members and the public (on the DEO
website), with copies of the email, and by having a thorough discussion of the issue by the
Group, that had a technical, inadvertent violation of the Sunshine law occurred, it would have
been remedied by the cure session
Ron Miller presented hurricane information that he had prepared during the public comment
period to the Work Group regarding the height of hurricane season for the Florida Keys.
MOU Review
Rebecca Jetton with the Department of Economic Opportunity presented the draft Memorandum
of Understanding (MOU) and took comments from the public regarding each point. Barbara
Powell followed by questioning each member to see if they supported the components of the
MOU in order to determine the number of points the group could agree upon.
Work Group discussion of concerns and how to proceed for MOU
0 MOU Commencement and Completion
Rebecca Jetton presented the draft MOU and recommended revisions Part One, Section
A as follows:
"For the purposes of hurricane evacuation clearance time modeling purposes, clearance
time shall begin when the Monroe County Emergency Manager, in concert with Monroe
County Board of County Commissioners, issues the evacuation order for the site built
units for phase 2 of the evacuation for a hurricane that is classified as a Category 5 wind
event or Category C or above surge event and pursuant to Rules 28-18, 28-19, and 28-20
Florida Administrative Code, the termination point for evacuation is US Highway One
and the Florida Turnpike in Homestead/Florida City."
Comments included suggestions for the following definitions to be included with the
MOU for: phased evacuation, hurricane category, clearance time, and storm surge.
No Consensus
a Tourist Units (Number)
Comments included citing the source of data for the unit.
Consensus
* Mobile Home Units (Number)
Comments included citing the source of data for the units in the MOU and deleting the
word "manufactured".
Consensus
Site -built Units (Number)
Comments included citing the source of data for the units in the MOU.
Consensus
• 12-hour Response Curve
Consensus
• Participation Rates for Category 3, 4, and 5 Hurricane Storm Event
Consensus
0 Mobile Home Units (Occupancy Rates)
The City of Key West and Village of Islamorada thought the occupancy rates for mobile
homes were low as reported by the US Census and American Community Survey.
Consensus
+ Site -built Units (Occupancy Rates)
Consensus
• Tourist Units (Occupancy Rates)
Comments included citing the source of data in the MOU and include occupancy month
from the Smith Travel Research date. Citizens urged use of the September occupancy
and provided data on hurricane strikes. The work group agreed that July was the highest
occupancy for the month for hotels based upon the Smith Travel research. Ron Miller
presented data showing that around 46% of hurricanes had occurred in September and it
is well understood that high numbers of tourists are in the keys in September. Rebecca
Jetton explained that the data set provided by Smith Travel is averaged by the month and
not by the week. She explained that staff utilized the highest occupancy rate reported by
Smith Travel and that the assumptions and variables in the MOU must be based upon
legally defensible data that is the most recent relevant professionally acceptable data
available.
Consensus
• Vehicle Usage Rates and Vehicles per Unit (Mobile Home Units)
Comments included discussion on the average vehicle length used for the vehicles
evacuating in the TIME Model. Irene Toner indicated for emergency operations that
high -profile vehicles are directed to evacuate during Phase 1 of a hurricane evacuation
scenario. Jeff Alexander provided an explanation of how the high profile truck size was
accommodated in the model. Christine Hurley wondered if some adjustment is needed to
reduce the assumptions for phase 2.
Consensus
Vehicle Usage Rates and Vehicles per Unit (Site -built Units)
Comments included a need to review the TEZ 1220, which is for the Naval Air Station -
Key West, to ensure that 870Milt Ufflis have been removed from Phase 2
calculations because the military will evacuate in Phase 1.
Consensus
1 This number has since been revised as of July 13, 2012 to 912 military units, pursuant to further correspondence
with Naval Air Station — Key West.
• Vehicle Usage Rates and Vehicles per Unit (Tourist Units)
Consensus
r Highway capacity and lanes
Comments include adding the number of lanes to exhibit regarding roadway
configuration.
Consensus
Evacuation stream to be considered
During the comments, 9 of the 14 Work Group and Special Interest members wanted the
regional stream of cars including Broward and Dade modeled. There was discussion
regarding the consistency of this approach with the statutes that call for "out of county"
evacuation. The group discussed the term "regional considerations" which is used in the
Work Program within the adopted administrative codes for Monroe, Marathon, and
Islamorada. Mayte Santamaria asked if the committee selected the regional evacuation
scenario, if that would require a statutory change. The members requested more
information and further explanation of what "regional considerations" means in the
Florida Administrative Code.
Representatives from the Village of Islamorada, City of Marathon, Chambers of
Commerce and FIRM Citizen Advocacy indicated they wanted only Monroe County's
population modeled. The Navy wanted more time to review before they commented.
Consensus was not reached.
• Phased Evacuation Procedure Policy
There was discussion regarding "out -of -county clearance time" in the Florida Statutes as
well as questions regarding the capacity of shelter space at FIU. FIU has a capacity for
600 individuals with an average use by 370 individuals. FIU has capacity for 90 special
needs individuals with an average use by 70 special needs individuals.)
During group discussion, Rebecca Jetton proposed policy amendment as follows:
Policy 216.1.8
In the event of a pending major hurricane (category 3-5) Monroe County shall
implement the following staged/phased evacuation procedures to achieve and
maintain an overall 24-hour hurricane evacuation clearance time for the resident
population.
1. Approximately 48 hours in advance of tropical storm winds, a mandatory
evacuation of non-residents, visitors, o ite iioine j a 0* c!nr . j2ecial rreeds
%. ;,W,S/S Nled :_ORI M.T<' "wine t?(//7ents, recreational vehicles (RV's), travel
trailers, live -aboard (transient and non -transient), and military personnel from
the Keys shall be initiated. State parks and campgrounds should be closed at this
time or sooner and entry into the Florida Keys by non-residents should be strictly
limited.
2 ,
/gip Y y py • • d i_ 'ii`(€1�2�§ey � rf.
3. Approximately 30 hours in advance of tropical storm winds, a mandatory
phased evacuation of site 1 iah by evacuation zone
(described below) shall be initiated.
The Work Group could not reach consensus on when to model the evacuation of mobile home
occupants. The adopted policy envisions the evacuation of mobile home occupants who live in
the most vulnerable dwelling units evacuating 36 hours prior to landfall of hurricane force winds
during Phase 1 of the 48-hour phased evacuation. Monroe County maintained that mobile home
occupants should be modeled evacuating with the site -built units in the Phase 2 of the
evacuation. The mobile home occupants were cited as the work force for the Florida Keys and
least able to afford to evacuate.
The staff from the Department of Economic Opportunity encouraged the group to seek funding
from the Division of Emergency Management to conduct workshops with the mobile home parks
and to develop evacuation plans with each mobile home community; provide a better
understanding of evacuation policies and shelter locations, the vulnerability of mobile homes to
hurricane storm events, and to coordinate public transportation and assistance in handling pets.
Some members questioned the occupancy rates reported by the Census that indicates that out of
8,134 mobile homes, there are 4,576 vacant. The Work Group requested a hurricane scenario
where the mobile homes are modeled evacuating with the site -built units and at a different
participation rate. The staff from the Department of Economic Opportunity had presented an
evacuation scenario that indicated that if site -built units evacuate with mobile home units, the
evacuation clearance time is more than 24 hours with no additional allocations for the future.
The Work Group requested that scenario calculations runs be based on a regional evacuation
stream and not just Monroe County traffic out -of -county. The Work Group could not reach
consensus on the phased evacuation policy as currently written with mobile homes modeled
leaving in phase one and they couldn't reach consensus on proposed revisions to the policy.
Monroe BOCC has already adopted a resolution supporting modeling the mobile homes with site
built homes.
No Consensus
Data that may need to be evaluated and changed in TIME Model includes:
1. Special needs permanent population moved to Phase 1;
2. High profile vehicles or vehicles with trailers are required to be evacuated in Phase 1; and
3. Navy vehicles may have been counted in Phases 1 and 2 70_ L� 4.,., and their associated
vehicles).
Z This number has since been revised as of July 13, 2012 to 912 military units, pursuant to further correspondence
with Naval Air Station — Key West.
Comments received from the public indicating there could be thousands of unlawful downstairs
enclosures that are being reported by FEMA officials that may have not been counted by the US
Census or included in the projected evacuation stream.
The Work Group requested that Naval Air Station - Key West provide a letter indicating that the
military will evacuate during Phase 1 and provide the data sources for the number of vehicles
and units they have identified in an earlier presentation.
The Work Group requested a scenario that models the ten foot shoulder enhancement along the
entire length of US 1 with the exception of Key Largo.
There was insufficient time for Christine Hurley and John Hammerstrom to make presentations.
The Work Group requested an additional meeting to conclude their recommendations. Any
presentations or other issues from this workshop will go on the next meeting's agenda.
Hurricane Evacuation Clearance Workshop
June 8, 2012 Minutes
Welcome and OneninE Remarks
Barbara Powell from the Department of Economic Opportunity brought the meeting to order and
introduced Mayor Peter Worthington of the City of Marathon to welcome the group.
Mrs. Powell proposed changes to the Agenda to allow Work Group member Annalise Mannix to
speak since she was unable to stay the duration of the meeting. Other announcements included
the intent to post an email on the Department of Economic Opportunity's Florida Keys Hurricane
Evacuation website to cure a potential Sunshine Law violation that occurred when Ms. Mannix
sent an email to the Monroe County Board of County Commissioners and copied Work Group
member Commissioner Sylvia Murphy. The email from Ms. Mannix expressed her concerns
regarding: 1) traffic flow rates, 2) vehicle usage rates and 3) behavioral studies.
Mrs. Powell noted that Bob Shillinger, Assistant County Attorney for Monroe County, had
previously requested, via email, changes to the April 301h minutes regarding his presentation on a
Sunshine violation. Mrs. Powell asked if there were any other corrections to the April 30ch
meeting minutes before approval. Mr. Hammerstrom requested that the minutes reflect the
economic impact of hurricane evacuation ($3 Million impact during a week day and $8 Million
on a weekend).
Annalise Mannix Presentation
Ms. Mannix stated that the traffic flow rates utilized in the hurricane evacuation model for the
Florida Keys were too low. Ms. Mannix indicated that the population may start evacuating days
in advance of a hurricane storm event. Regarding the behavioral studies, Ms. Mannix had issue
with how residents in Mobile Homes and Recreational Vehicles were surveyed. She also stated
that assuming people won't drive at night was incorrect.
Ms. Mannix indicated that further research should be done to make sure double -counting does
not occur. Ms. Mannix was not convinced that new construction equates to new permanent
residents since more homes are being used as second homes and vacation rentals. She also felt
that the 10 ft. shoulders should be counted in the model as a functional evacuation lane and
recommended a contra -flow plan on the 18-mile stretch.
John Hammerstrom Presentation
John Hammerstrom's slide presentation provided an overview of the assumptions that are part of
the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), reinforced that the task of the Work Group was to
choose reasonable input parameters and to compare the resulting clearance time to the statutory
limit of 24 hours, and he expressed his apprehension that the group would instead "...start with a
clearance time of 24 hours or less and then define the inputs and assumptions to achieve that
time."
Mr. Hammerstrom quoted Jonathan Rizzo, Warning Coordination Meteorologist at the National
Weather Service, Key West, "The science of weather forecasting, including track, intensification,
wind field and storm surge does not support the assumption that Monroe County will always
have 48 hours in which to carry out a phased evacuation," James Franklin, Branch Chief of the
National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Specialist Unit, "While Average Track Errors for Atlantic
hurricanes have been cut in half over the past 15 years, there has been virtually no change in
average intensity forecast errors over that period. Rapid intensification is particularly difficult to
forecast. Accurate forecasts of storm surge 48 hours in advance are complicated by a lack of
ability to forecast changes in storm structure and size, where almost no forecast skill exists. The
structure or distribution of a storm's wind field is one of several critical factors in determining
the amount of surge that a particular location will experience," and Andrew Devanas, Science
and Operations Officer of the National Weather Service, Key West, "Hurricanes Wilma, Rita,
Ivan and Dennis all intensified from tropical storm to evacuation -inducing Category 3+ strength
in less than 24 hours - and none of those intensifications were forecast."
It was Mr. Hammerstrom's opinion that mobile home residents and tourists should be modeled
as evacuating with the site -built units because "...forecasting tools are inadequate to reliably
evacuate tourists 48 hours ahead. History tells us that sometimes 24 hours is insufficient." Mr.
Hammerstrom discussed the 20,135 dwelling units the US Census considered vacant and the fact
that none are included in the MOU clearance time calculation. He referred to the census
statement that 75% of the vacant units are occupied "seasonally, recreationally or occasionally"
and it was his opinion that "...many 'vacant' dwelling units will generate evacuation traffic
because they are second homes in need of hurricane preparation by mainland owners, or simply
because they are occupied as `seasonal, recreational or occasional' units."
Mr. Hammerstrom stated that the proposed MOU accounts for only 38% of the County's total
dwelling units since the Work Group's proposed input parameters excludes all 20,135 dwelling
units considered "vacant" and all tourist units and mobile homes based on the presumption that
there will be 48 hours in which to execute a two -phased evacuation.
Mr. Hammerstrom suggested that the draft MOU should include Tourist and Mobile Home
residents in the clearance time calculation and should include 25% of those units considered
vacant by the US Census. Since it was required by Florida Administrative Code to include
.®ional considerations", he asserted that the clearance time for Monroe County should
therefore include the influences of neighboring counties. Mr. Hammerstrom presented his
recommendations for a revised MOU that he had drafted. The members of the Work Group did
not make a motion to accept his recommendations.
Mayte Santamaria Presentation
Mayte Santamaria, Assistant Planning Director for Monroe County, gave a presentation based on
alternative strategies to mitigate for hurricane evacuation impacts in the Florida Keys. Some of
the potential strategies are as follows:
Revision to the rate and distribution of building allocations
o Distribution based on vacant land analysis within jurisdictions
o Decrease annual allocation rate to allow for the ability to buy more land and
allow for longterm land acquisition
2
• Roadway Improvements
o Acknowledge these type of projects are costly and controversial
■ Additional lanes may conflict with community character and are
prohibited by Monroe County Comprehensive Plan policies in areas with
4 lane highways in the Upper Keys
r Adopt comprehensive plan policies which would allow for the transfer of building
allocations across Monroe County sub -areas and across other local governments'
jurisdictional lines
o Would help with limited allocations
o May negatively impact affordable housing deficit in the Florida Keys
• Re -designate vacant platted lots near US 1 as strictly non-residential land uses (such as
commercial/office, etc.)
• Request federal government designate all eligible vacant lots within the Keys as Coastal
Barrier Resource Units (CBRS)
o Provide limitations on obtaining federal funds or subsidies for future
development
Ms. Santamaria stated that there could be an evaluation to the current 24-hour clearance time to
see whether it is still appropriate for the Florida Keys since forecasting ability has improved
since it was adopted into the Florida Statutes and local law. She also recommended the
reconsideration of the current phased policy adopted by the local governments to see if the policy
is still relevant for the Keys and whether revision is necessary.
Monroe County has 8,758 privately -owned, vacant lots and the local governments should
consider mechanisms to accelerate and fund land acquisition while balancing the private property
rights and fairness for future development. Ms. Santamaria indicated there may be long-term
maintenance issues. A solution would include locating additional funding sources for the
County's Land Authority.
Other mitigation strategies included research and construction of hurricane shelters within
Monroe County located outside the Coastal High Hazard Area (CHHA). Funding for shelter
development could come from fees from future development in the Keys. Ms. Santamaria
presented maps of potential locations outside of Tier I and the CHHA.
Scenario Discussion - Barbara Powell and Jeannine Kelsick
Scenarios M3, M4, M5 and M11
Scenario M3: This scenario assumes 44,630 existing site -built units, projected allocation of
3,540 and 1,248 mobiles homes to convert to site -built units over the 10-year period. The
scenario provided an evacuation clearance time of 24 hours and 30 minutes.
Scenario M4: This scenario assumes 43,760 existing site -built units, projected allocation of
3,540 and 1,248 mobiles homes to convert to site -built units over the 10-year period. This
scenario differs from Scenario M3 by removing 870 units which were double counted (military
housing). Mrs. Powell indicated that the scenario shows the location bias of units located within
the Key West region and how the location of 870 wi4s' at the beginning of the evacuation stream
affects clearance time by 30 minutes. This scenario provided an evacuation clearance time of 24
hours.
Scenario M5: This scenario assumes 43,760 existing site -built units, projected allocation of
3,540 units and 1,248 mobiles homes to convert to site -built units over the 10-year period, and
coning north of Jewfish Creek Bridge. This scenario provided an evacuation clearance time of 24
hours.
Scenario M11: This scenario assumes 43,760 existing site -built units, projected allocation of
3,190 with only 30 new units located at Key West and 1,248 mobiles homes to allocation over
the next 10 years. This scenario produced an evacuation time of 23 hours.
Scenarios M6-M13
Scenario M6: This scenario assumes 44,630 existing site -built units, projected allocation of
1,770 units (a 50% decrease in the current allocation), and an estimate of 1,248 mobiles homes to
convert to site -built units over the 10-year period. This scenario provided an evacuation
clearance time of 24 hours.
Scenario M7:
This scenario assumes 43,760 existing site -built units, a projection of 1,770 units (a 50%
decrease in allocation) 1,248 mobiles homes to convert to site -built units over the 10-year period.
This scenario differs from Scenario M6 by removing the double count of military housing units
associated with Naval Air Station Key West. This scenario provided an evacuation clearance
time of 23 hours and 30 minutes.
Scenario M8: This scenario assumes 44,630 existing site -built units, a projection of 2,660 (a
25% decrease in allocation), and an estimate of 1,248 mobiles homes to convert to site -built units
over the 10-year period. This scenario provided an evacuation clearance time of 24 hours.
Scenario M9: This scenario assumes 43,760 existing site -built, 2,660 projected units (a 25%
decrease in the current allocation) and an estimate of 1,248 mobiles homes to convert to site -built
units over the 10-year period. This scenario differs from Scenario M8 by removing the double
count of military housing units associated with Naval Air Station Key West. This scenario
provided an evacuation clearance time of 23 hours and 30 minutes.
Scenario M10: This scenario assumes 43,760 existing site -built, 3,009 projected units (15%
decrease in the current allocation), 1,248 mobiles homes to convert to site -built units over the 10-
year period. This scenario also assumes the removal of the military housing double count
associated with Naval Air Station Key West. This scenario provided an evacuation clearance
time of 24 hours.
1 This number has since been revised as of July 13, 2012 to 912 military units, pursuant to further correspondence
with Naval Air Station — Key West.
4
Scenario M12: This scenario assumes 44,630 existing site -built units, a projected allocation of
3,540 and 1,248 mobiles homes to convert to site -built units over the 10-year period, and
including one additional functional lane (i.e. 10-foot shoulder) from Key West to MM 106.3, the
junction of Card Sound Road and US 1. There are portions of US 1 that already have 2
functional evacuation lanes. This scenario assumes the addition of a 10-foot shoulder to be used
as a functional evacuation lane in areas with only one functional evacuation lane, with coning on
bridges. This scenario produced an evacuation time of 23 hours and 30 minutes.
Scenario M13: This scenario assumes 44,630 existing site -built units, a projected allocation of
3,540 and 1,248 mobiles homes to convert to site -built units over the 10-year period, and the 10
foot shoulder enhancements planned in the Florida Department of Transportation Work Plan
projected through 2016 with coning on bridges adjacent to shoulder improvements. This
scenario produced an evacuation time of 23 hours and 30 minutes.
Scenarios 1, S1 through S4 and M1 through M2
Scenario 1: This scenario assumes a simultaneous evacuation of site -built units, mobile homes,
tourist units, and military. This scenario provided an evacuation clearance time of 35 hours and
30 minutes.
Scenario S1: This scenario assumes 44,630 existing site -built units. This scenario provided an
evacuation clearance time of 23 hours.
Scenario S2: This scenario assumes 44,630 existing site -built units and 3,540 projected units for
10 years. This scenario provided an evacuation clearance time of 24 hours.
Scenario S3: This scenario assumes 44,630 existing site -built units and 1,770 projected units (a
50% decrease in current allocations) for 10 years. This scenario provided an evacuation
clearance time of 23 hours and 30 minutes.
Scenario S4: This scenario assumes 44,630 existing site -built units, a projected allocation of
2,660 units (a 25% decrease in current allocation) for 10 years. This scenario provided an
evacuation clearance time of 23 hours and 30 minutes.
Scenario M1: This scenario assumes 44,630 existing site -built units and 8,134 mobile homes
evacuate at the same time. This scenario provided an evacuation clearance time of 25 hours and
30 minutes.
Scenario M2: This scenario assumes 44,630 existing site -built units and 8,134 mobile homes
evacuate at the same time with a projection of 3,540 units for 10 years. This scenario provided an
evacuation clearance time of 27 hours. Mrs. Powell pointed out that if the local governments of
the Florida Keys do not order mobile homes to evacuate early as a mitigation strategy that the
Keys is over their statutorily defined 24-hour clearance time limit. From this point, Mrs. Powell
started the discussion regarding mitigation strategies for the Florida Keys.
Mitigation Recommendations — Barbara Powell
Before discussion began, John Hammerstrom had a question regarding the coning of 2 functional
lanes north of Jewfish Creek Bridge which was used in some of the hurricane scenario
evacuation analyses. Mrs. Powell and Lou Caputo, Chief of the Law Enforcement Bureau for the
Monroe County Sheriff s Department, explained the scenario represented a worse case -
operational scenario.
Rebecca Jetton from the Department of Economic Opportunity encouraged the Work Group to
focus on the hurricane evacuation scenarios that were presented and to start a dialog on which
scenario the Work Group members would agree on for the purposes of the MOU. Barbara
Powell explained that the vote would be taken from signatories of the MOU only, which consists
of the representatives for the six (6) local governments within the Florida Keys, the Department
of Economic Opportunity and the Florida Division of Emergency Management. Additionally,
Mrs. Powell indicated that the members appointed to represent the cross sections of the
N.
population would have a chance to speak in the afternoon before the final recommendations are
agreed upon by the signatories.
Rebecca Jetton stated that the recommendations made by the Work Group are advisory to each
local government and the elected officials will consider each issue when they conduct public
hearings to execute the MOU. Ms. Jetton recommended that each representative indicate which
hurricane evacuation scenarios the signatories would support. Daniel Samess, President of the
Florida Keys Federation of Chambers of Commerce, suggested that discussion should focus on
those scenarios which are 24 hours or below and allows for the greatest allocation feasible to
sustain services and the economy as well as proper growth management.
Mayor Pete Worthington recommended including coning of Jewfish Creek Bridge and an
additional functional lane on Card Sound Road. Chief Caputo indicated issues with Card Sound
Road and Richard Ogbum, Director of Research at the South Florida Regional Planning Council,
stated that the bottlenecks for evacuation are not north, but towards the Lower and Middle Keys
such as at Snake Creek Bridge.
Mayor Worthington made a motion to discuss and vote on using the existing roadway network
on Card Sound Road to make two northbound lanes during a hurricane evacuation scenario.
Irene Toner, Emergency Management Director for Monroe County, and Chief Caputo indicated
that Card Sound Road has been studied and that Card Sound Road is too narrow to add an
additional functional lane for use in a hurricane evacuation scenario. There are public safety
considerations due to accidents that have occurred during previous evacuations. Additionally, at
Florida City, there are 3 lanes, not 4, exiting out of the Florida Keys which would make merging
difficult if both Card Sound Road and US 1 had 2 functional lanes each. This would cause a
significant bottleneck without getting a 4`h lane in Florida City. The motion failed.
Commissioner Sylvia Murphy commented that the Work Group should consider decreasing
allocations per year, not overall, by extending the planning horizon past 10 years.
Councilman Clark Snow, City of Layton, discussed Scenario M5. Mayor Pete Worthington
mentions looking at Scenario MI 1 which is the full allocation but provides Key West with 30
allocations, not 90. Don Craig, Planning Director for the City of Key West, provided that the
City has 84 vacant, buildable lots, but also has an affordable housing deficit. Mr. Craig pointed
out that, with the mixed -use zoning in place, that Key West could issue 90 allocations per year
and didn't believe that 30 annual allocations would be enough.
Commissioner Murphy and Commissioner Teri Johnston, City of Key West, recommended
moving allocations across jurisdictions and sub -areas. Commissioner Murphy discussed
Scenario M10, stating that the need for units is usually not where the allocations are located.
Christine Hurley, Planning Director for Monroe County, indicated that the reluctance to support
an allocation for 90 allocations in Key West may be based upon the fact that Key West hasn't
had any allocations for the past 10 years. Ms. Hurley suggested that Key West provide the Work
Group with their housing needs in order to revise the assumptions needed for hurricane
evacuation modeling. Mr. Craig indicated that Key West needs 250 allocations for affordable
housing as well as for their vacant lots. Mr. Craig indicated that Key West would need time to do
a proper analysis for their housing need and cannot provide a number at the moment.
Mayor Ron Sutton, City of Key Colony Beach, motioned to end discussion and to call for a vote
for Scenario M5. The motion failed.
Commissioner Murphy motioned for discussion and vote on Scenario M10, seconded by
Councilman Snow. Councilman Don Achenberg, the Village of Islamorada, stated that the
Village will not sign a MOU with a decrease in allocation for Islamorada. The motion failed.
Councilman Achenberg motioned to discuss and vote for Scenario M11, which is seconded by
Mayor Worthington with an amendment to be accommodating to Key West's affordable housing
issue. Commissioner Johnston stated that Key West would not support Scenario M11. The
motion for Scenario M 11 fails.
Commissioner Johnston suggested an amendment to Scenario MI 1 which would allow Key West
staff the opportunity to identify the City's housing need and if Key West uses less than their
projected need, that they will distribute their unused allocations to the rest of the jurisdictions by
regulatory means. The presumed yearly need would be between 30-90 units. Ms. Jetton
indicated a need for discussion regarding the equivalency rate that Key West has adopted which
may nearly double the allocations for Key West. She stated that the equivalency rate is based on
data from 1990 and likely cannot be supported by current demographic and hurricane data. Mr.
Craig clarified that the location where the City needs affordable housing allocations does not
qualify for the criteria set up for the .55 equivalency rate and Key West has used full allocations
for affordable housing unit in some locations. (Note: Research indicates there are 7 zoning
districts where equivalency ratios are allowed and 9 districts where the equivalency cannot be
used).
Councilman Achenberg indicated agreement with Scenario MI I with the new amendment and
motions to discuss and vote, but the new amendment fails. Ms. Jetton indicated a reluctance to
support the Scenario vote because it did not identify an allocation for Key West. The City's
location at the beginning of the evacuation stream and additional development at this location
could have a positive or negative impact on evacuation clearance time. A re -vote is suggested
for Scenario M5 to resolve this issue. Commissioners Johnston, Murphy, and Councilman
Achenberg suggested that such a vote may not allow the transfer of unused units. Ms. Jetton
explained the amendment to Scenario MI I is independent of the other scenarios, since allowing
the transfer of units can only occur with amendment to the local governments' land development
regulations. Mr. Craig indicated that Key West staff will create a building permit allocation
system similar to the other local governments in the Florida Keys to ensure that all the
allocations are not used up before the planning horizon ends. Mr. Craig also indicated that Key
West will negotiate with the other local governments regarding the transfer of units. Mayor
Sutton indicated a motion should be made to Scenario M5 with the amendment from Scenario
M11.
Mayor Sutton made a motion to rescind the vote for Scenario M 11 and the motion passed. After
input from Ms. Santamaria and Edward Koconis regarding timing of annual unused allocations
and vacant land analysis, Ms. Jetton then made a motion for an amendment that unused
allocations from Key West, annually by July 15`h, would be transferred to the other local
governments based on the vacant land analysis which is a comparison of each local
governments' vacant land percentage to the whole of all the vacant lands in the Florida Keys.
George Garrett, Planning Director for the City of Marathon, indicated that the previous
allocation building caps were set up disproportionately and the amendment being crafted for the
vote is a potential way of solving the issue. Scenario M5 with the amendment passed.
Commissioner Murphy inquired if the hurricane evacuation modeling scenarios were done
assuming bridges were locked down and stoplights are flashing (no set red lights). Jeff
Alexander, Director of Emergency Preparedness for Northeast Florida Regional Council,
indicated that Commissioner Murphy was technically correct since the TIME Model assumes
that traffic uses maximum flow rates. Mr. Hammerstrom and Mr. Ogburn brought up that
maximum flow rates were adjusted dependent on factors such as lights and intersections.
Discussion of MOU — Rebecca Jetton
Mrs. Powell reconvened the Work Group to start discussion on the MOU. Discussion for the
MOU would be focused on those items that the Work Group was unable to reach consensus on
during the April 30`h meeting.
Ms. Jetton began with Part One, Section A of the MOU, which is the "Commencement and
Completion of Evaluation" language. There were a number of recommendations to include
definitions for the terms within the clause, so the glossary from the Statewide Regional
Evacuation Study Program (SRESP) was included. Ms. Jetton recommended the following
changes that are identified:
"Commencement and Completion of Evacuation: For the purposes of
hurricane evacuation clearance time modeling purposes, clearance time
shall begin when the Monroe County Emergency Management
Coordinator, as delegated by the Monroe County Board of County
Commissioners, issues the evacuation order for site built s permanent
residents under Phase 2 for the evacuation for a hurFirane that is elassified
as Category 3, 4, or 5 hurricane wind event or Category C-E hurricane
surge event and pursuant to Rules 28-18, 28-19 and 28-20, Florida
Administrative Code, the termination point for evacuation is U.S.
Highway One and the Florida Turnpike in Homestead/Florida City."
Discussion for this clause included whether there was a definition for permanent residents in the
clause since this was an important issue from the last meeting as stated by Commissioner
Murphy. Ms. Jetton indicated there was no such definition, but it can be included. An issue was
raised that Monroe County may have already adopted a resolution to order both site -built units
and mobile homes to evacuate together with an earlier notification period than that in the adopted
policy.
Ms. Jetton stated that, previously, when the Monroe County Comprehensive Plan was found "not
in compliance" in the 1990s, the Final Order instituted the 24 hour time frame for evacuation for
the Florida Keys. At that time, it was thought that the evacuation clearance time was over 30
hours. In 1999, Miller Consulting, Inc. found that the evacuation clearance time was 25 hours
and 52 minutes. Following that assessment, mitigation strategies such as the phased evacuation
approach which included mobile homes leaving earlier than site -built units was adopted to
balance development and public safety. All the local governments have adopted the phased
evacuation approach. The phased evacuation does not imply that mobile home residents are not
permanent residents, but that mobile homes are more vulnerable to potential wind damage.
Mayor Worthington agreed. Jeff Alexander further indicated that the term "permanent
residents", for the purposes of the SRESP, was to identify those residents who reside in
permanent residential structures, not mobile residential structures such as mobile homes and
other related structures. This is important to take note in the Florida Keys, in which mobile home
residents are more than likely to evacuate than those in permanent structures in Category 1 and 2
hurricane storm events and have to differentiate the different population types for phased
evacuation. It did not have any bearing on defining a population. Ms. Jetton recommended
changing "permanent residents" to "site -built units" in the commencement clause.
Ms. Jetton stated that if Monroe County would like to change the phasing time of site -built units
and mobile homes, then that would require a comprehensive plan change and would affect the
MOU and all the other local governments because hurricane evacuation ties all the communities
together.
Ms. Jetton indicated that the clause being discussed could possibly be removed since it was
placed into the MOU for clarity. The Work Group decided to remove the language and place it as
an exhibit to the MOU.
Christine Hurley indicated that Monroe County has taken up this issue on the phased evacuation
and requested that DEO staff conduct another scenario run to understand the results of ordering
site -built units and mobile homes to leave at the 36 hour point. (Note: Research indicates that
Scenario M1 includes an evacuation of mobile homes and site built units together with a
clearance time of 25 hours and 30 minutes. Since the transient and military evacuation stream
would have started at the 48 hour point (12 hours earlier) there would still be some evacuating
traffic impacting mobile homes and site built units leaving at the 36 hour mark. The model is not
structured to accommodate a scenario such as this because the model does not take into
consideration the time of an evacuating order without further modification to the software to
understand traffic volumes generated by the model. Such a modification has been requested by
DEO for the model. Scenario 1 includes hotels, mobiles, and site built units and the clearance
time is 35 hours and 30 minutes. The evacuation time for the mobiles and site built units leaving
at the 36 hour interval would result in a clearance time between 25 hours and 30 minutes and 35
hours and 30 minutes, both exceed the 24 hour target.)
Ms. Jetton discussed Vehicle Usage assumptions in the MOU and added additional references
including the community college contribution to the evacuation stream. Ms. Jetton indicated that
the data in the MOU had been revised by attaching the specific data from each Traffic
Evacuation Zone, including roadway capacities and number of lanes based upon data from the
Florida Department of Transportation.
10
Mr. Hammerstrom pointed out that the glossary from the SRESP contains the definition for
"Out -of -County" clearance time and that is different from what is being identified for the Florida
Keys. Ms. Jetton pointed out that the definition from Section 163.3178(9), Florida Statutes, is
the definition that should be used for the hurricane evacuation modeling.
Ms. Jetton discussed the traffic evacuation stream and if the model should utilize Monroe County
traffic or a regional evacuation. Mayor Worthington, Councilman Snow and Commissioner
Johnston agree that "Out -of -County" for Monroe County should only be used since the County
cannot control development in other areas. Mr. Hammerstrom asked Jeff Alexander to explain
the definition of clearance time.
Mr. Alexander described:
Clearance time to Shelter: All in County trips have reached their destination within the
County. This does not mean all traffic movement in the County has ended; rather it
means that everyone going to a point of safety AND that point is in the County, has
reached their shelter.
In -County Clearance Time: All in County trips have reached their destination AND all
out of county trips have left the Evacuation Zone; AND traffic originating from outside
the County that pass through the Evacuation Zone has also cleared the Zone. This does
not mean all traffic movement in the County has ended; rather it means that everyone
going to a point of safety AND that point is in the County, has reached their shelter AND
the Evacuation Zone is clear.
• Out -of -County Clearance Time: All in County trips have reached their.. destination AND
all out of county trips have left the County; AND traffic originating from outside the
County that passes through the County has also cleared the County. This does not mean
all traffic movement in the County has ended; rather it means that everyone going to a
point of safety has reached their shelter or left the County.
• Regional Clearance time is the highest time for an Out of County clearance time in the
designated region. Monroe County is part of a region, so it would be the time it takes for
the last car to leave the region which is when the last car leaves through Broward County.
Discussion continued on whether modeling efforts should include only Monroe County traffic or
include traffic for the entire region. Discussion began with past hurricane storm events which
included multiple counties conducting evacuations. Irene Toner provided an example of
Hurricane Ike. Ms. Toner stated that Monroe, Miami -Dade and Broward were planning
evacuations, so the choice was made to evacuate Monroe County earlier than the other two
though the other counties ultimately decided not to evacuate because of changes in storm
conditions. The signatories choose to keep modeling only for Monroe County traffic.
Ms. Jetton moved to the phased evacuation policy under Section H of which no changes were
recommended. Edward Koconis discussed the participation rates (100%) used for mobile homes.
Jeannine Kelsick explained that the model was modified to use site -built unit characteristics
instead of mobile home characteristics. Richard Ogbum stated there isn't a significant difference
11
between the number of vehicles generated by site built or mobile homes. The difference comes
with the occupancy rates. Mr. Koconis indicated the MOU should be revised to only list the
participation rates being used for hurricane evacuation modeling purposes for the Keys and that
those rates can be up for further study.
Returning to discussion regarding the adopted phased evacuation policy, Andrew Sussman from
the Florida Division of Emergency Management suggested that the policy in the MOU be
removed. He suggested adding a statement under Section H that references the evacuation
procedures as adopted by the local governments' comprehensive plan so the MOU does not have
to be revised when a local government revises their comprehensive plan.
Ashley Monnier from Naval Air Station Key West provided comments regarding the military's
past procedures for evacuation. Ms. Monnier indicates that further coordination would be needed
with the chain of command. Mr. Sussman stated that emergency operation procedures are
separate from growth management policy decisions. Christine Hurley supported Mr. Sussman's
recommendation on referencing an exhibit that would contain the phased evacuation procedure
from the comprehensive plan policy. The signatories agreed on the revision.
Work Group Comment
Mrs. Powell requested comments from the Work Group members who are not signatories of the
MOU. John Hammerstrom restated his assertion that modeling assumptions may not include
enough dwelling units for evacuation purposes. None of the other members had comments.
Public Comment
Naja Girard from Last Stand commented that she cannot support the assumptions used for
hurricane evacuation modeling. Ms. Girard is happy about discussions about mitigation
strategies such as sheltering.
Ron Miller from Key Largo commented that allocations should be phased out for areas without
takings liability and the allocations should be maintained at the same level for those areas with
takings liability. Mr. Miller indicated that Monroe County has comprehensive plan language
which prohibits the movement of allocations across sub -areas of the County to control potential
bottlenecks that may occur during hurricane evacuation. Mr. Miller referenced a study for
Monroe County to look at entitled Monroe County 2010-2030 Population Projections which was
accepted by the Department of Community Affairs in 2011.
Final Recommendations for MOU
Mrs. Powell turned the conversation back to the signatories of the Work Group for final
recommendations. After hearing additional comments from the public and other Work Group
members, Mrs. Powell asked if the signatories had any other changes they would like to see
reflected in the MOU. No changes were announced. The motion passed. Mrs. Powell indicated
that this MOU is for the assumptions and inputs for hurricane evacuation modeling and that the
attorneys from all the local governments, Department of Economic Opportunity and the Florida
Division of Emergency Management will review the MOU. Christine Hurley indicated that the
12
MOU should include language to reflect the amendment to Scenario M5 decided this morning, of
which the signatories of the MOU agree.
Ms. Jetton asked if there were any other recommendations from the Work Group for mitigation
strategies. Mayor Pete Worthington stated that more information is needed regarding day and
night evacuations, coning for Card Sound Road and Jewfish Creek Bridges and identifying
bottlenecks and other roadway issues. Mayor Worthington recommended more emphasis on
evacuating vulnerable populations in RVs, boats and mobile homes early enough. Ms. Jetton
recommended additional discussion with DEM regarding preparedness education funding.
Commissioner Johnston recommended use of public transportation to help with evacuations,
especially for those worried about evacuating at night. Mr. Craig suggested that sheltering in -
place should be looked at for the Florida Keys.
The Work Group members were thanked for their participation and the meeting was adjourned.
Santamaria-Ma e
From: Jetton, Rebecca <Rebecca.Jetton@deo.myflodda.com>
Sent: Thursday, July 12, 2012 11:36 AM
To: Hurley -Christine; Santa ma ria -Mayte; George Garrett; Powell, Barbara
Cc: Spiers, Sherry; Don Craig; eDWARD.k000NIS@ISLAMORADA.FL.US; Ron Sutton
Subject: 1/3 concept
Follow Up Flag: Follow up
Flag Status: Flagged
Monroe County requested a hurricane evacuation scenario utilizing a simultaneous evacuation order for mobile
homes and site -built units at the 36-hour mark. The scenario assumes:
1) there are four 12-hour periods within the 48-hour phased evacuation period,
2) all but 15% of the mobile homes have evacuated by the 24-hour mark
3) 33% of the site -built units have evacuated by the 12-hour mark; and
4) all the tourist units have evacuated within the first 12 hours without impacting the evacuation of mobile
homes and site -built units.
Using these assumptions, the scenario results provided an evacuation clearance time of 18 hours and 30
minutes; however, the assumption of using the 12-hour periods as a direct, linear correlation with the amount of
traffic that is processed ma�not portray the other factors which impact the amount of evacuating vehicles that
are processed per half hour in the Transportation Interface for Modeling Evacuations, or TIME Model.
The TIME Model utilizes a response curve to calculate the amount of evacuating vehicles. The response curve
is the amount of time it takes for the public to prepare and load onto the prescribed evacuating roadway
system. A 12-hour response curve results in an evacuation clearance time that is always greater than 12 hours.
Using a 12-hour response curve, the Model assumes that 10% of the evacuating population has already left
before an evacuation order is given. The Model loads the remainder of the evacuating cars onto the roadway
network over a period of 12 hours using behavioral information and available roadway capacity to apply the
percentages of the evacuating population over time. By the response curve's 12'h hour, the entire evacuating
population has responded to the evacuation order and is participating or has participated in the evacuation
scenario.
Although the response curve by itself may look like a linear progression, the evacuating stream is not linear as it
takes into account congestion from background traffic and the evacuating population, who are originating from
various locations along US 1.
Assuming a third of the traffic is evacuated per 12-hour period does not correlate with those additional factors
which can impact evacuation clearance time. The Model calculates the traffic volumes by half hour increments,
but the resulting evacuation summaries produced are not decipherable as to the number of cars evacuating
during a given period of time. DEO has requested that DEM revise the graphs produced in the
software summaries to include the traffic volumes by half hour increments. DEM is working with the
consultant to produce the graphs in a readable manner. We do not have an estimate of the time it will take to
get this information.
Using the current software a simultaneous evacuation of mobile homes and site -built units, without a future
allocation, is 25 hours and 30 minutes.
Rebecca Jetton
(850) 717-8494
(850) 766- 7822 (cell)
Santamaria-Ma e mmmm
From: Jetton, Rebecca <Rebecca.Jetton@deo.myflorida.com>
Sent: Thursday, July 12, 2012 11:51 AM
To: Hurley -Christine; Santamaria-Mayte; Don Craig; Ron Sutton;
eDWARD.kO0ONIS@ISLAMORADA.FL.US
Subject: last email 1/3
Follow Up Flag: Follow up
Flag Status: Flagged
I am already getting phone calls about my last email. Please do not assume that we are suggesting that the 1/3
approach is a change that should be made. Just the opposite is true. Until we get the graphs that show the evacuating
traffic by half hour, we cannot validate this approach and it wouldn't be a good idea to recommend a change based on
the scenario result.
Rebecca Jetton
(850) 717-8494
(850) 766- 7822 (cell)